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Study of Capital Asset Pricing Model in Nordic Stock Market

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Study of Capital Asset Pricing Model in Nordic Stock Market Study of Capital Asset Pricing Model in Nordic Stock Market Nupur Garg Master’s thesis November 2019 School of Business Master’s Degree Programme in International Business Management Description Author Type of publication Date Garg, Nupur Master’s thesis November 2019 Language of publication: English Number of pages Permission for web 59 publication: Yes Title of publication Study of Capital Asset Pricing Model in Nordic stock market Degree programme Master’s Degree Programme in International Business Management Supervisor(s) Hundal, Shabnamjit Assigned by JAMK Centre for Competitiveness Abstract This study focused on studing the impacts of using CAMP in estimating the performance of the Nordic stock market. Random sampling was used and a total of 35 companies were selected for the case study. CAPM formula, as formualted by previous studies, was used to estimate the performance of these companies and various anayses has done on the data including regression, t-test and Jensen alpha tests. From the descriptive statistics, it was found that the average beta was 0.0191 while the maximum beta was 0.759. This implies that the selected Nordic stocks had a systematic risk of 99% lower than the index. Further, Jensen Alpha analysis showed that the Nordic stock has outperformed the market’s expected return based on CAPM productions. However, looking at the t-test values, there has been a significant change in the systematic risk in Nordic stocks and at the same time, there has been a significant change in the unsystematic risk of this market. The regression analysis shows that there was a positive association betwen beta and daily returns with an increase in beta leading to a possible increase in actual return. Therefore, the finding was not statistically significant. The expected return was also calculated. The finding showed that beta is not the only factor to be considered when making investments in the Nordic stock markets. In conclusion, the study finds that CAPM is not an accurate model to be used in measuring the expected returns of investments in the Nordic markets. Keywords/tags Risk and return, CAPM, Jensen Alpha, Regression, t-Test, Nordic stock market Miscellaneous 1 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Research Objective and Questions .................................................................. 6 1.3 Motivation for the Research ............................................................................ 7 1.4 Structure of the Thesis ..................................................................................... 8 2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ................................................................................. 9 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Return .............................................................................................................. 9 2.3 Risk ................................................................................................................ 10 2.3.1 Types of risk...............................................................................................10 2.3.2 Systematic and Unsytematic risk..............................................................11 2.3.3 Standard deviation....................................................................................11 2.4 Beta ................................................................................................................ 12 2.5 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ........................................................... 13 2.6 Jensen Alpha .............................................................................................. 16 2.7 Summary ................................................................................................... 17 3. EMPIRICAL LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................... 18 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Empirical Literature Against CAPM ............................................................. 18 3.3 Empirical Literature Supporting CAPM ........................................................ 20 3.4 Chapter Summary .......................................................................................... 22 4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .................................................................................. 23 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 23 4.2 Research Approach ........................................................................................ 23 2 4.3 Context of study ........................................................................................... 24 4.4 Sampling and Data Collection.......................................................................27 4.5 Variables .................................................................................................... 28 4.6 Data Analysis ............................................................................................ 31 4.6.1 Time series regression...............................................................................31 4.6.2 Cross-Sectional Regression .................................................................... 32 4.6.3 t-Test for Difference in Means ............................................................... 34 5. FINDINGS .............................................................................................................. 35 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 35 5.2 Descriptive Statistics ..................................................................................... 35 5.3 Nature and Extent or Risk ............................................................................. 36 5.4 Jensen Alpha .................................................................................................. 37 5.5 Findings of t-tests .......................................................................................... 37 5.6 Cross-Sectional Regression: Relationship between Risk and Return ........... 38 5.6.1 Expected Return and Beta ...................................................................... 38 5.6.2 Expected Return, Beta, and Residual Variance ...................................... 40 5.7 Chapter Summary .......................................................................................... 41 6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .............................................................. 42 6.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 42 6.3 Summary and Discussion..............................................................................43 6.3 Limitations of the Study ................................................................................ 45 6.4 Recommendations for Future Research ........................................................ 45 7.REFERENCES .................................................................................................... 47 Appendix Appendix 1. Information on Swedish Companies.......................................................53 Appendix 2. Information on Danish Companies.........................................................56 3 Appendix 3. Information on Finnish Companies..........................................................57 Figures Figure 1. Composition of Total risk............................................................................36 Tables Table 1. Probability of each scenario with certain rate of return...............................11 Table 2.1 Nasdaq Nordic & Baltic growth between 2014 and 2018..........................25 Table 2.2 number of companies in Nasdaq Nordic & Balticby sector........................26 Table 2.3 List of companies selected for the study .....................................................27 Table 2.4 Definition of Key variables..........................................................................30 Table 3 Table of Findings............................................................................................. Table 3.1 Descriptive statistics...................................................................................35 Table 3.2 t-test output.................................................................................................37 Table 3.3 Regresion model of return and beta...........................................................38 Table 3.4 Regression model of return, beta and residual variances...........................40 4 1. INTRODUCTION Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is one of the most significant concepts in finance. The model argues that the required return on asset is influenced by its systematic risk. The model is applied in estimating returns on assets, including stocks. However, several researchers have argued that the CAPM does not hold in stock markets. This thesis examines the relationship between risk and return of Nordic stocks, thereby assessing the validity of the CAPM in the Nordic Stock Market. It analyses the returns on 35 stocks to determine whether the Nordic Stock Market has underperformed
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