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A Technology Assessment of Personal Computers. Vol. III: Personal Computer Impacts and Policy Issues

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A Technology Assessment of Personal Computers. Vol. III: Personal Computer Impacts and Policy Issues DOCUMENT RESUME ED 202 454 IR 009 300 AUTHOR Nilles, Jack M.; And Others TITLE A Technology Assessment of Personal Computers. Vol. III: Personal Computer Impacts and Policy Issues. INSTITUTION University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Office of Interdisciplinary Program Development. SPONS AGENCY National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. DEPORT NO OIP/PCTA-80-3/3 PUB DATE Sep BO GRANT PRA-78-05647 NOTE 342p.; For related documents, see IR 909 298-300. Some small print marginally legible. EDRS PRICE MF01/PC14 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Education; Employment; *Microcomputers; Prediction; *Public Policy; Questionnaires IDENTIFIERS *Delphi Technique; International Trade; *Technology Assessment ABSTRACT A technology assessment of personal computers was conducted to study both the socially desirable and undesirable impacts of this new technology in three main areas: education, employment, and international trade. Information gleaned from this study was then used to generate suggestions for public policy options which could influence these impacts. Four primary methods were used to develop the information for the policy analysis stages of the assessment:(1) search and analysis of the relevant literature, (2) development of a series of scenarios of alternative futures, (3) performance of two Delphi surveys and a cross-impact analysis based on these scenarios, and (4) interviews and/or surveys of the potentially affected stakeholders and decision makers. Tables of data are included as well as a list of references. Appendices include Delphi questionnaires with summaries of findings and an employment questionnaire used in the study. (LLS) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * from the original document. *********************************************************************** U S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH. EDUCATION it WELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO. DUCE° EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGIN- ATING IT POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS STATED 00 NOT NECESSARILY REPRE- SENTOFFICIAL NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY -4- C`..1 CD A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OP CV; PERSONAL COMPUTERS: 0 VOLUME III LIJ PERSONAL COMPUTER IMPACTS AND POLICY ISSUES Office of interdisciplinary Programs University of Southern California 1042 W. 36th P1. DRB-342 Los Angeles, CA 90007 Prepared with the Support of the National Science Foundation under Grant No. PRA78-05647 OIP /PCTA 80-3/3 September, 1980 Any opinions, findings, conclusions and/or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or of the University of Southern California. Preface This set of reports is the last in a series covering the first two years of progress of the Personal Computer Assessment Project at the University of Southern California. The Principal Investigator of the project is Jack M. Nilles, Director, Interdisciplinary Programs. Organizationally, the Office of Interdisciplinary Programs is a unit of the Office of the Executive Vice President of USC. A technology assessment is a complex, broad-scope activity. As such, it requires the participation of researchers from a number of disciplines and the cooperation of a variety of experts from outside the university. The purpose of the Office of Interdisciplinary Programs is to develop such projects on a university-wide basis. The USC research team has included the following Individuals: Jack M. Nilles Director, Interdisciplinary Programs Office of the Executive Vice President (Project Director; Impact and Policy Analysis; Reports Editor) F. Roy Carlson, Jr. Assistant Dean, School of Engineering Director, Engineering Computer Lab (Technology Forecast; Scenario Development; Education Policy Analysis) Herb Dordick Director, Center for Telecommunications Policy Research Annenberg School of Communications (TeleCommunications Policy) Paul Gray Professor, Decision Sciences [Now Chairman, Management Science and Computers, Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University] (Scenario Development; Impact Analyses) John P. Hayes Associate Professor, Electrical Engineering (Technology Forecast) Milton G. Holmen Professor, Management, Public Administration (Market Analysis) Michael J. White Associate Professor, Public Administration (Policy Methodology; Employment Policy) Celeste B. Akkad Office ofInterdisciplinary Programs Project Assistant(until June, 1980) Carol B. Gordon Office ofInterdisciplinary Programs Project Assistant(from June, 1980) Research Assistants Manuel Arroyo (Market Analysis) Sean Casey (Scenario Development) Terri Gray (User Surveys) Charles Steinfield (Delphi Survey Analysis) Patricia Walters (Scenario Development. Education Policy) In addition to the project staff, we have been given much valuable assistance and advice from a Board of Advisors. The composition of the Board has been as follows: Robert W. Barmeier Director, PlanningResearch Sears, Roebuck COmpany Alfred Bark Professor, Department of Physics University of California, Irvine John Craig Publisher, InfoWorld Robert Daly Special Assistant to the Director Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. COngress Edward E. Faber President, Camputerland Cbrporation Portia Isaacson Research Fellow, Electronic rata Systems Hank Koehn Vice President, Futures Research Security Pacific National Bank Ryal R. Poppa President, PER= Computer Corp. John Ratliff Consultant R. B. Shirey Vice President, General Telephone Campany We have also been fortunate to enlist the cooperation of a number of experts in various aspects of our research by means of our Delphi surveys. The Delphi panelists and our advisors contributed their time, interest and insights far beyond the call of duty. We are grateful for the time spent by those who participated in the surveys associated with the project. Finally, we are greatly indebted to Dr. G. Patrick Johnson, of the National Science Foundation, for his interest, advice, and encouragement. Although many improvements in our research have resulted from the contributions of these advisors, panelists, and respondents, any failings must remain the responsibility of the research team. Readers interested in gaining further information may contact: Jack H. Nilles Director, Interdisciplinary Programs University of Southern California University Park, ma 342 Los Angeles, CA90007 (213)743-8989 5 CONTESTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1-1 CHAPTER 2: THE ISSUE SELECTIONANDANALYSIS PROCESS 2-1 1. Relationships with PriorWork 2-1 2. An Overview of Policy Issues Relayed to Personal Computers 2-1 3. Analysis Methodology and Criteria for Issue Selection 2-4 3.1 National Goals and Poltszy Orientations 2-4 3.2 Preliminary Issue Areas 2-4 3.3 Technological Forecast 2-8 3.4 Market Forecasts 2-8 3.5 Impacts 2-8 3.6 Existence of Self - Organizing Responses 2-9 3.7 Federal Interests 2-9 3.8 Political Factors 2-9 3.9 Appraisal Factors 2-10 4. An Example: Personal Computersand RF Interference 2-10 5. Tools for Analysis 2-13 CHAPTER3:. IMPACTS 3-1 1. Issue Selection 3-1 2. Events and Trends 3-3 .2.1 Events 3-3 2.2 Trends 3-13 3. Cross-Impact Analysis 1-24 CHAPTER 4: PERSONAL COMPWricas jam EDUCATION 4-1 1. Educational Uses of Computers 4-1 1.1 Administration 4-1 1.2 Academic Applications 4-3 1.2.1 Computer Literacy 4-5 1.2.2 Computer Aided Learning 4-6 1.2.3 Problem Solving 4-8 1.2.4 Information Processing 4-8 2. Potential Impacts of theTechnology 4-8 2.1 Economic 4-9 2.1.1 The Education Market 4-9 2.1.2 The Home and Consumer Market 4-10 2.1.3 The Large Organizationmarket 4-10 2.1.4 The Small Business Market 4-10 2.2 Societal Impacts 4-11 2.3 Institutional Impacts 4-13 2.4 Legal Impacts 4-13 3. The Education Market: Opportunities and Barriers 4-14 3.1 Primary and Secondary Education 4-14 3.2 Higher Education 4-20 3.3 Other Markets 4-22 4. Public Policy Implications 4-25 4.1 Federal Policy Options 4-26 4.2 Non-Federal Policy Options 4-31 References 4-33 CHAPTER5: THE PERSONAL COMpliTERANDEMPLOYMENT 5-1 1. Background -1 2. Overview 5 3. The Environment of Employment 5-5 3.1 Employment in Comparative tive Perspec 5-6 6 3.1.1 International Trends 5-7 3.1.2 Labor Force Participation Rates 5-8 3.1.3 Employment and the 1974 Recession 5-8 3.1.4 Youth Unemployment 5-9 3.1.5 Factors Distorting Measurements of U.S. Unemployment 5-10 3.1.6 Older Workers and Retirement 5-11 3.1.7 Employment: A Summary 5-13 3.2 Aggregate Demand and Structural Theories of Unemployment 5-13 3.3 Conclusion: Bad News and "Good" 5-16 4. Projections of Employment Losses Due to Personal Computers 5-16 4.1 The Estimates in Summary Form 5-17 4.2 "The Collapse of Work:" A Pessimistic Scenario 5-18 4.3 Projecting from Observrd Experiences: The ETUI Report 5-20 4.4 The Nora Report 5-22 4.5 American Trade Publication Reports and Other Studies 5-23 4.5.1 The Automobile Industry 5-24 4.5.2 Telephone and Communications Industry 5-24 4.5.3 Insurance 5-25 4.5.4 Banking 5-26 4.6 A Short Survey of Some Financial Services and Other Companies 5-27 4.7 Studies of the Economy-Wide Impacts of Computers on Employment Levels 5-29 4.8 Semiconductor Manufacturing: An Example of an Information-Intensive Manufacturing Industry 5-31 4.9 Summary 5-32 5. Applications and Barriers to Them 5-33 5.1 Applications Possibilities 5-33 5.2 Summary of Applications Potential 5-37 5.3 Barriers to Applications 5-37 5.3.1 Cost-Time-Complexity Configuration 5-38 5.3.2 Some Residual Moderating Influences 5-39 5.4 Three Skeptical Illustrations 5-40 6. Impact of Personal Computers on Work, and Changes in the Nature of Work 5-43 6.1 Optimistic Projections 5-44 6.2 Pessimistic Visions 5-45 6.3 The Changing Nature of Work 5-46 7. Politics of the Unemployed 5-48 References 5-51 CHAPTER 6: THE PERSONAL COMPUTER AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE 6-1 I.
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