Iran

DECISION MAKER: ’s , seen with a portrait of his predecessor, is key to any possible rapprochement REUTERS/IRNA

Tehran and Washington have both tried to improve relations in the past decade. Here’s why they have failed Iran, the , and the ‘cup of poison’

BY Louis Charbonneau and Parisa Hafezi NEW YORK/ANKARA, June 12, 2013

ive months ago Iran’s foreign minister sent an into “broad discussions with the United States.” unusual letter to the country’s supreme leader, The supreme leader, though cautious about the FAyatollah Ali Khamenei. It was time, Ali Akbar prospect, sent a reply to Salehi and the rest of the Salehi wrote according to two sources who read the Cabinet: he was not optimistic but would not oppose letter, to reach out to ’s arch foe by entering them if they pursued the initiative.

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BEHIND THE SCENES Insiders say Iran’s foreign minister (left) and outgoing president have both made attempts to open talks with Washington but been thwarted. REUTERS/ Hamed and Lucas Jackson

Salehi’s move was bold on many counts, Those who want a deal “Those who want a deal can’t deliver, and not least the risk it posed to him in bypass- can’t deliver, and those who can those who can deliver don’t want a deal,” ing outgoing Iranian president Mahmoud deliver don’t want a deal. Sadjadpour said. Ahmadinejad. The outgoing president has After more than three decades without fallen out of favor with the supreme leader Karim Sadjadpour diplomatic relations, suspicion runs deep in recent years and openly opposed Salehi’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on both sides. Yet behind the scenes both proposal, the sources said. Iran and the United States have shown “Salehi endangered his career - and camp or will lead anywhere, though a for- more interest in some kind of dialogue than even his security,” said a source who knows mer senior Iranian official said Khamenei’s commonly thought. Salehi and saw the letter. “But he said this green light for direct talks with the OBAMA LETTERS letter will be registered in history.” Americans will remain valid even after the The three-page handwritten letter, re- June 14 presidential election. Ten years ago last month Iran sent the ad- ported here for the first time, is the lat- Iran’s U.N. mission did not respond to a ministration of then-President George W. est Iranian proposal for dialogue between request for comment. Bush a secret proposal for wide-ranging Tehran and the United States, which are at Western powers hope Ahmadinejad’s bilateral talks to resolve disagreements on odds over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran says successor will be someone who is on good many issues, including its nuclear program. it is for peaceful domestic purposes, but terms with the supreme leader, avoids anti- Some in the U.S. State Department wanted Western countries and many in the Middle Israeli rhetoric and supports serious nego- to move on the proposal; but the Bush ad- East believe it is aimed at producing bombs. tiations on Iran’s nuclear program. But the ministration dismissed the idea of dialogue So far, the letter has led nowhere. But choice for Iranian voters is limited. Iran’s with a country it had branded part of an a Reuters examination of the relationship reformists, who might be more inclined “axis of evil” with North Korea and Saddam between Washington and Tehran reveals it to compromise over the nuclear program, Hussein’s . is even more complex than commonly un- have been barred or sidelined in the elec- That rejection undermined reformists, derstood, though still distant and untrust- tion. The six carefully vetted presidential former Iranian nuclear negotiator Hossein ing. Based on interviews with diplomats, candidates are dominated by hardliners Mousavian wrote in his 2012 memoirs. current and former government officials, close to Khamenei. There were no subsequent offers of broad intelligence sources and well-connected Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie negotiations with Washington that could academics, it shows how infighting in Iran Endowment for International Peace, a lead- claim to have Khamenei’s support, accord- and suspicions in the United States have so ing Iranian-American expert on Khamenei, ing to Western diplomats and officials. far blocked attempts to thaw relations. remains pessimistic that any deal can be When President took It is not clear whether Salehi’s proposal struck with the United States while the office in 2009 he reversed the U.S. line signifies a change of tack by Khamenei’s 73-year-old Khamenei is alive. and offered Khamenei direct engagement

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- provided Iran was serious about ending one-on-one, face-to-face meeting with concerns over its nuclear program. Obama the supreme leader is the former Episcopal twice wrote directly to Khamenei, in 2009 Bishop of Washington, John Bryson and again in 2012. Chane.(When U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon The letters have never been published, met Khamenei in 2012 in Teheran, Jeffrey though some details were leaked to report- Feltman, a former U.S. State Department ers. Unknown until now is that Obama official, was also present but in his capacity proposed a list of American interlocutors as U.N. Under-Secretary-General, not as a who could negotiate with the Iranians. U.S. citizen). One possible go-between, according to one Chane told Reuters he met Khamenei source, was William Burns, now deputy on the sidelines of a conference on religion secretary of state and previously the chief and politics in Tehran in 2008. Khamenei U.S. negotiator in six-power negotiations talked to Chane about “Iran’s troubled rela- on the Iranian nuclear crisis. tionship with the West,” including the U.S. Khamenei, who has final say on all do- and British role in overthrowing the demo- mestic and foreign policy matters, never cratically elected government of Prime reciprocated with his own list of Iranian Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 negotiators, the sources told Reuters. and Washington’s subsequent support for “One of the difficulties in getting nego- the autocratic Shah of Iran. tiations with Iran going is who you talk to,” Chane remains in contact with Khamenei a former Obama administration said on con- and has occasionally acted as a go-between. dition of anonymity. “You need to talk with In 2011 he played a role in helping to se- the supreme leader or someone who’s close to cure the release of two American hikers. He him. No one else matters. And the supreme keeps his distance from the U.S. government leader has been unwilling to talk with us.” but told Reuters he had agreed to relay mes- Obama administration officials insist they INTERLOCUTOR American Bishop John Bryson sages between the State Department and are serious about engagement with Iran, but Chane is in contact with the Supreme Leader. Khamenei’s office in the past. He did not also about preventing Iran from acquiring nu- REUTERS/Caren Firouz provide any details. clear weapons. “The onus remains with Iran if AHMADINEJAD OVERTURES it wants to pursue a path to end its isolation,” said Caitlin Hayden, a National Security initially suspicious of Obama’s willingness Though Khamenei mostly stayed silent, Council spokeswoman. “We hope that Iran’s to engage with Tehran, U.S. and Israeli of- Ahmadinejad, who became Iran’s president leaders will choose to make concrete progress ficials have said. But over time they real- in 2005, did not. The politician widely vili- towards addressing international concerns ized that Obama’s commitment to engage fied in the West for doubting and finding a diplomatic solution. We cer- helped win him the international backing and questioning ’s , sent tainly remain ready to so, but the window for to implement painful sanctions against a letter to Obama in 2008 congratulating diplomacy is not open indefinitely and all op- Tehran, Western officials told Reuters. him on his election victory. tions are on the table.” While more pragmatic elements in Iran’s Then in 2009 Ahmadinejad made an Dennis Ross, a veteran U.S. diplomat opaque collection of clerical councils, min- offer, delivered by U.N. nuclear watchdog who advised Hillary Clinton in the State istries and advisory groups have indicated chief Mohamed ElBaradei, of direct talks. Department and then spent two years on an interest in dialogue with America and a Obama showed little interest, partly because Obama’s national security staff is more diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff, of Ahmadinejad’s public comments on the blunt: “The administration was up for bilat- Khamenei’s office has resisted direct nego- Holocaust and Israel, but mainly because he eral. It’s not that it didn’t happen because the tiations, say U.S. and other Western dip- was seen as unable to sway the supreme lead- U.S. was reluctant to do it. It didn’t happen lomats. It has pressed ahead with nuclear er, Western and former Iranian officials say. because the Iranians weren’t prepared for it.” enrichment in defiance of U.N., U.S. and Nevertheless, there were informal Israel, which considers Iran’s nuclear sanctions. contacts. program one of its top security threats, was The only American to have had a “Despite radical rhetoric, Ahmadinejad

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did more than all his predecessors to (try to) advance rapprochement with Washington,” Iran’s nuclear facilities a source familiar with Iran-U.S. contacts told Reuters. Other Western diplomats Heavy Nuclear Research/ Uranium confirmed that view, which runs counter to water power development processing/ mining the standard portrayal of the Iranian presi- reactor plant enrichment dent as unwilling to compromise on the nuclear program. On the sidelines of a 2009 meeting in TURKMENISTAN Geneva, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Bonab held bilateral talks with then- U.S. Undersecretary of State William Ramsar Burns, the highest level bilateral U.S.- Mo-Allem Iranian meeting in three decades. Kalayeh* Jabr Iban Hagan Since Ahmadinejad took office there Tehran Parchin* have been “tens of covert meetings between Khondab (Fordow) Ramandeh Iranian officials and former U.S. officials Arak in ... the Hague, Geneva, Vienna, Sweden, Natanz Tehran, Munich and New York,” the source Lashkar-Abad Saghand AFG. said. Most of those meetings have taken place Isfahan Narigan since Obama arrived in the White House in Darkhouin 2009, sources familiar with them said. IRAQ Zarigan Reuters met several individuals who participated in at least some of those dis- cussions. One, former U.S. Ambassador Bushehr IRAN to the Thomas Pickering, was involved in indirect talks with Iranian counterparts as part of so-called “Track II” SAUDI Gachin informal diplomacy. ARABIA Various proposals for ending the nuclear standoff were floated to Iran in different 100 miles Track II meetings, which Pickering said in 100 km his case were set up by the United Nations Foundation of America. Proposals ranged *Suspected research site from scrapping enrichment of uranium to limited enrichment work and 24/7 moni- Sources: Reuters EDREF; International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); toring by the International Atomic Energy Institute for Science and International Security; Global Security.org Agency (IAEA). The discussions included meetings with Iran’s U.N. Ambassador in New York, result for the U.S. and that on our side a after Ahmadinejad’s divisive re-election, , Tehran’s sole official was the only acceptable which sparked nationwide accus- diplomatic representative on U.S. soil, and end result for Iran,” said Pickering. ing him of rigging the vote. other Iranians living in the United States “The two (views) may be true but they Iran’s mission to the IAEA in Vienna who have “different degrees of contacts represent extremes, and the real interest of approached the agency’s head at the time, back there.” None of the initiatives went far. negotiations is can it find an answer be- Mohamed ElBaradei, to ask how they “I don’t think we penetrated the funda- tween those extremes.” could get new fuel for the ageing Tehran mental mistrust on their side that somehow The most serious overture from Research Reactor, a small nuclear facility regime change was the only acceptable end Ahmadinejad’s camp came in 2009, shortly bought from the United States in the 1970s

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that produces medical isotopes. The economy is Khamenei’s sanctions, prompt a shift from Khamenei, ElBaradei approached the Americans, red line. as hinted at by the foreign minister’s let- who saw an opportunity for a deal. They ter? The hurdles remain formidable, though suggested Iran could ship 1,200 kg of their Former high-ranking Iranian official U.S. and other Western officials say U.S. low-enriched uranium - 80 percent of all Secretary of State is determined they had - to for enrichment to 19.5 promote himself ... as the man who helped to pursue a new diplomatic push with Iran, percent uranium-235 purity, which would restore Iranian relations with the U.S.” including direct talks. be suitable for the research reactor. The ura- The deal fell apart when , Sources familiar with Iranian think- nium would then go to for process- speaker of Iran’s parliament, attacked it as ing said it would be extremely difficult for ing into special fuel assemblies. selling out to the West. Larijani and other Khamenei to agree any kind of deal with If Iran had gone through with the deal, it Iranian officials were also suspicious that the Americans, because doing so could un- would have shipped the bulk of its low-en- Ahmadinejad was trying to usurp some of dermine his credibility among his conser- riched uranium out of the country for a year, the supreme leader’s authority. vative power base. which U.S. officials said at the time would “Ahmadinejad has no respect for the Others say that, though difficult, even have dramatically reduced tensions in the leader, he just wanted to remain in power,” a Khamenei could drink “the cup of poi- Middle East amid concerns that Israel was source close to Khamenei told Reuters. “All son,” as his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. of his opponents inside the system were Khomeini described it when he reluctantly Ahmadinejad jumped on the proposed well aware of it. agreed to a U.N.-mediated truce that end- deal, seeing it as an opportunity to make a “That is why Khamenei blocked ed the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. breakthrough in the so-called P5+1 talks his approaches several times to show Iran’s economy, which analysts say has on Iran’s nuclear crisis involving the five Ahmadinejad and the world that he been weakened by sanctions and misman- permanent members of the U.N. Security (Khamenei) was the real boss.” agement, might be one reason for Khamenei Council - Britain, China, France Russia to consider talks. U.S. and EU restrictions on AFTER THE ELECTION and the United States - and Germany. Iran’s oil exports and international financing “It was Ahmadinejad’s baby,” said a se- After two consecutive terms, Ahmadinejad have contributed to a collapse in Iran’s cur- nior Western diplomat involved in the must now step down. rency and soaring inflation. negotiations. “He saw it as a chance to Might the transition, and the bite of “On the one hand he (Khamenei) dislikes the idea of opening up to the Great Satan but at the same time he knows that it is (the) only way to resolve the country’s econom- ic problems,” said a former high-ranking Iranian official who was imprisoned for two years after the 2009 election on charges of “acting against national security.” “The economy is Khamenei’s red line,” he said. Ross, the veteran U.S. diplomat, said Khamenei’s unwillingness to speak with the United States is partly because he un- derestimates Obama’s readiness to use force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. A former senior Iranian official confirmed that Khamenei thinks Obama is not yet willing to attack Iran. “Right now, he (Khamenei) does not be- lieve that we have reached that point,” said one of Iran’s former top nuclear negotiators, BIG SQUEEZE Sanctions have hurt Iran’s economy, but not yet crippled it. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi who was dismissed by Ahmadinejad.

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UNDER CONSTRUCTION A 2002 satellite image of the Bushehr nuclear power reactor. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes; the West believes Tehran wants the bomb. REUTERS/HO-Space Imaging

“Khamenei and his close allies strongly expected to include senior Iranian clerics. believe that America will not attack Iran, but “But we in the West have to show some are worried about Israel,” the negotiator said. respect for Iran, for its culture and its reli- FOR MORE INFORMATION “They will wait until the last possible minute.” gious heritage. There has to (be) a way to Louis Charbonneau, United Nations Bishop Chane believes that for the time trust and verify.” Bureau Chief being Track II diplomacy is the best hope [email protected] for encouraging engagement. Charbonneau reported from New York, Hafezi Parisa Hafezi, Ankara Bureau Chief “It is possible to have a dialogue with Iran,” from Ankara; Additional reporting by Arshad [email protected] said Chane, who will join others in Doha in Mohammed in Washington; Editing by Michael Williams, Global Enterprise Editor June for further Track II discussion that are Richard Woods and Simon Robinson [email protected]

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