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A Study of the FMLN and URNG Transitions to Political Parties Michael E

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A Study of the FMLN and URNG Transitions to Political Parties Michael E Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2006 Leaving the Past Behind?: a Study of the FMLN and URNG Transitions to Political Parties Michael E. Allison Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES LEAVING THE PAST BEHIND? A STUDY OF THE FMLN AND URNG TRANSITIONS TO POLITICAL PARTIES By MICHAEL E. ALLISON A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2006 Copyright © 2006 Michael E. Allison All Rights Reserved The members of the Committee approve the dissertation of Michael E. Allison defended on 03/21/2006. __________________________ Paul R. Hensel Professor Directing Dissertation __________________________ Andrew Opel Outside Committee Member __________________________ Damarys Canache Committee Member __________________________ Will H. Moore Committee Member __________________________ Jeffrey K. Staton Committee Member Approved: ___________________________________________ Dale L. Smith, Chair, Department of Political Science The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii To those who have given their lives in the pursuit of social, economic, and political justice in Central America and around the world. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My dissertation would not have been possible without the help of a great number of individuals. First and foremost, I would like to thank the members of my committee: Paul Hensel, Damarys Canache, Will Moore, Jeff Staton, and Andy Opel. Their support and insightful comments were invaluable at each stage of the dissertation process. Their contributions extend well beyond my dissertation. I am especially grateful to Paul Hensel. His mentoring and friendship were extremely important to the realization of this dissertation. I must thank Kűrşan Turan and Steve Shellman for their encouragement and advice all these years. I would also like to acknowledge the support of the faculty and staff at FSU, particularly Dale Smith and Mary Schneider. For encouraging me to pursue graduate studies in Latin American politics, I must thank Ed Dew and Bev Kahn. Special thanks to my family and friends for their emotional and financial support all these years. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Marie. This dissertation would not have been possible without your love, support, confidence and patience. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables………………………………………...…………………………………….... vi List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………….. viii List of Maps…………………………………………………………………………………. ix Abbreviations and Acronyms……………………………………………………………….. x Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………… xiii 1. INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………….. 1 2. EXPLAINING THE SUCCESS OF FORMER INSURGENT GROUPS………………. 12 3. RESEARCH DESIGN…………………………………………………………………… 33 4. INSURGENT GROUPS…………………………………………………………………. 54 5. EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS……. 76 6. EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS…………….. 109 7. CIVIL WAR LEGACY ON FMLN ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE………………… 147 8. GLOBAL INSURGENT TRANSITIONS TO POLITICAL PARTIES………………… 178 9. CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………….. 233 APPENDICES………………………………………………………………………………. 242 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………… 245 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH………………………………………………………………... 257 v LIST OF TABLES 4.1 Postwar Presidential Elections in El Salvador (Votes and % of Total Votes)…………. 69 4.2 Postwar Legislative Elections in El Salvador (Votes and % of Total Votes)………….. 70 4.3 Postwar Legislative Elections in El Salvador (Number of and % of Seats)…………… 71 4.4 Postwar Presidential Elections in Guatemala (Votes and % of Total Votes)………….. 72 4.5 Postwar Legislative Elections in Guatemala (Votes and % of Total Votes)…………… 73 4.6 Postwar Legislative Elections in Guatemala (Number of and % of Seats)…………….. 74 4.7 Effective Number of Parties in El Salvador and Guatemala…………………………… 75 6.1 1994 Legislative Election Results for FMLN in El Salvador, Largest Remainder 137 versus D’Hondt………………………………………………………………………… 6.2 1999 Legislative Election Results for URNG in Guatemala, D’Hondt versus Largest 138 Remainder……………………………………………………………………………… 6.3 1994 Legislative Election Results for FMLN in El Salvador, Actual and Simulated 139 District Magnitude……………………………………………………………………... 6.4 1999 Legislative Election Results for URNG in Guatemala, Actual and Simulated 140 District Magnitude……………………………………………………………………... 6.5 National Vote in Salvadoran Elections (Percentages)…………………………………. 141 6.6 National Vote in Guatemalan Elections (Percentages)………………………………… 142 6.7 Bipolarization of the Salvadoran Political Party System, Legislative and Executive 143 Elections………………………………………………………………………………... 6.8 Bipolarization of the Guatemalan Political Party System, Legislative and Executive 144 Elections………………………………………………………………………………... 6.9 Growth Rate of Real GDP per Capita, El Salvador……………………………………. 145 6.10 Growth of Rate of Real GDP per Capita, Guatemala…………………………………. 146 7.1 FMLN Performance in 1994 “Elections of the Century”………………………………. 171 vi 7.2 FMLN-Controlled Zones and FMLN Performance in the 1994 Elections…………….. 172 7.3 Distribution of Political Violence and FMLN Performance in the 1994 Elections……. 173 7.4 FMLN Performance in “Ex-Conflict” and “Non-Conflict Zones” in the 1994 174 Elections………………………………………………………………………………... 7.5 Accounting for FMLN Performance in the 1994 Elections……………………………. 175 8.1 Postwar Presidential Elections in Mozambique (Votes and % of Total Votes)………... 225 8.2 Postwar Legislative Elections in Mozambique (Votes and % of Total Votes)………… 226 8.3 Postwar Legislative Elections in Mozambique (Number of and % of Seats)………….. 227 8.4 Postwar Presidential Elections in Colombia (Votes and % of Total Votes)…………… 228 8.5 Postwar Legislative Elections for Colombian Senate (Number of and % of Seats)…… 229 8.6 Postwar Legislative Elections for Colombian Chamber of Representatives (Number of 230 and % of Seats)………………………………………………………………………… 8.7 Postwar Legislative Elections for Colombian Constituent Assembly (Number of and 231 % of Seats)……………………………………………………………………………... 8.8 Global Insurgent Group Electoral Performance………………………………………... 232 vii LIST OF FIGURES 7.1 FMLN Vote in the 1994 Legislative Election………………………………………….. 176 7.2 Distribution of Political Violence and FMLN Performance in the 1994 Election……... 177 viii LIST OF MAPS 4.1 El Salvador, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, 1980………………………….. 67 4.2 Guatemala, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, 2000…………………….……... 68 8.1 Mozambique, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, 1995………………………… 223 8.2 Colombia, Perry Castañeda Library Map Collection, 2001…………………………….. 224 ix LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS El Salvador ARENA Alianza Republicana Nacionalista National Republican Alliance BPR Bloque Popular Revolucionario Popular Revolutionary Bloc CD Convergencia Democrática Democratic Convergence CDU Centro Democrático Unido United Democratic Center CPM Coordinora Político Militar Political-Military Committee DRU Dirección Revolucionario Unificada Unified Revolutionary Directorate ERP Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo People’s Revolutionary Army FAL Fuerzas Armadas de Liberación Armed Liberation Forces FAPU Frente de Acción Popular Unificada United Popular Action Front FARN Fuerzas Armadas de Resistencia Armed Force of National Resistance Nacional FDR Frente Democrático Revolucionario Democratic Revolutionary Front FMLN Frente Farabundo Martí para la Farabundo Martí National Liberación Nacional Liberation Front FPL Fuerzas Populares de Liberación Farabundo Martí Popular Liberation Farabundo Martí Forces LP-28 Ligas Populares – 28 de Febrero February 28th Popular Leagues MLP Movimiento de Liberación Popular Popular Liberation Movement MNR Movimiento Nacional National Revolutionary Movement Revolucionario MPSC Movimiento Popular Social Popular Social Christian Movement Cristiano MR-13 Movimiento Revolucionario 13 de November 13th Revolutionary Noviembre Movement x PAR Partido Acción Renovadora Renovating Action Party PCS Partido Comunista de El Salvador Communist Party of El Salvador PDC Partido Demócrata Cristiano Christian Democratic Party PSD Partido Demócrata Social Social Democratic Party PRTC Partido Revolucionario de Revolutionary Party of Central Trabajadores Centroamericanos American Workers RN Resistencia Nacional National Resistance UCA Universidad Centroamericana “José University of Central America “José Simeón Cañas” Simeón Cañas” UDN Unión Democrática Nacionalista Democratic Nationalist Union UNO Unión Nacional Opositora National Opposition Union Guatemala AD Alianza Democrática Democratic Alliance ANN Alianza Nueva Nación New Nation Alliance ASC Asamblea de Sociedad Civil Assembly of Civil Society CCPP Comisión Permanente de Permanent Commission of Refugees Refugiados CNT Confederación Nacional de National Workers Confederation Trabajadores CUC Comité de Unidad Campesina Committee of Peasant Unity DIA Desarrollo Integral Auténtico Authentic Integral Development EGP Ejército Guerrilleros de los Pobres Guerrilla Army of the Poor FAR Fuerzas Armadas Rebeldes Rebel Armed Forces FASGUA Federación Autónoma Sindical de Autonomous Trade Union of Guatemala Guatemala xi FDNG Frente Democrático Nueva Democratic Front for a New Guatemala Guatemala FRG Frente Republicano Guatemalteco
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