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IEEE Computer Society President's Message Design Fragility Hybrid Innovative Technology for Computer Professionals January 2004 IEEE Computer Society President’s Message Design Fragility Hybrid CPU/FPGA Chips http://www.computer.org Innovative Technology for Computer Professionals January 2004,Volume 37,Number 1 PERSPECTIVES 30 A Tale of Three Disciplines ... and a Revolution Jesse H. Poore Some disciplines, like circuit and genetic engineering, seem to evolve from theory to practice relatively responsibly. Software engineering, on the other hand, while not yet at the guillotine, has suffered a decided lack of direction. It may be time to storm the gates. 37 The End of Science Revisited John Horgan Because science has advanced so rapidly over the past century or so, we assume that it can and will continue to do so, possibly forever. But science itself tells us that there are limits to our knowledge. COVER FEATURES 47 2003 Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors Don Edenfeld, Andrew B. Kahng, Mike Rodgers, and Yervant Zorian This update to the 2001 ITRS Roadmap shows the industry shifting its focus toward systems on chip, wireless computing, and mobile applications. 59 NASA’S Mission Reliable Patrick Regan and Scott Hamilton Like industrial development organizations, the US space agency struggles with the challenge of creating reliable software. NASA’s deep space community is attacking its software crisis via two complementary approaches—one stressing the power of engineering discipline, the other the potential of automated code generation and Cover design and artwork by Dirk Hagner verification. 69 IT Employment Prospects in 2004: A Mixed Bag ABOUT THIS ISSUE Fred Niederman n this January Outlook issue, Signs of general economic recovery and renewed IT sector growth we continue our tradition of are dampened for IT workers globally by improved productivity and I publishing articles that locally by a global labor market. address advances with near-term possibilities. 78 DakNet: Rethinking Connectivity in Developing Topics covered include the ITRS assessment of Nations the challenges awaiting the semiconductor Alex (Sandy) Pentland, Richard Fletcher, and Amir Hasson industry; NASA’s software reliability efforts at DakNet provides extraordinarily low-cost digital communication, JPL and the Ames Research Center and its letting remote villages leapfrog past the expense of traditional systems and software architecture for next- connectivity solutions and begin development of a full-coverage generation unmanned spacecraft; an innovative broadband wireless infrastructure. initiative for providing inexpensive wireless connectivity for rural populations in developing 85 Combining Optical Holograms with Interactive nations; an assessment of global IT employment Computer Graphics prospects in 2004; and a novel system for Oliver Bimber combining optical holograms with interactive Merging optical holograms with 3D graphical elements can provide computer graphics. This issue also includes two an acceptable tradeoff between quality and interactivity: The essays on the future of software engineering and holographic data provides high-quality but static content, while the end of science. additional graphical information can be generated, inserted, modified, and animated at interactive rates. IEEE Computer Society: http://computer.org Computer: http://computer.org/computer [email protected] IEEE Computer Society Publications Office: +1 714 821 8380 OPINION 13 At Random Design Fragility Bob Colwell NEWS 18 Industry Trends Vendors Go to Extreme Lengths for New Chips Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols 22 Technology News Is Peer-to-Peer Secure Enough for Corporate Use? George Lawton 26 News Briefs E-Mail Security Gets Personal I Ceiling for Controversial US H-1B Visas Drops I Interactive Panoramic Images MEMBERSHIP NEWS 8 EIC’s Message 10 President’s Message 92 Call and Calendar 95 Computer Society Connection COLUMNS 116 Web Technologies Databases Deepen theWeb Thanaa M. Ghanem and Walid G. Aref 118 Embedded Computing Programming Models for Hybrid CPU/FPGA Chips David Andrews, Douglas Niehaus, and Peter Ashenden 121 IT Systems Perspectives Distributed Learning Environments Maryam Alavi 124 Standards Best Business Practices for Standards Groups NEXT Michael LoBue MONTH: 128 The Profession Ad Hoc From Organization Man to Free Agent Networking Mohan Babu DEPARTMENTS 4 Article Summaries 6 Letters 17 32 & 16 Years Ago 44 IEEE Computer Society Membership Application 100 Career Opportunities 113 Advertiser/Product Index 114 Products 115 Bookshelf COPYRIGHT © 2004 BY THE INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC. Membership Magazine ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ABSTRACTING IS PERMITTED WITH CREDIT TO THE SOURCE. LIBRARIES of the ARE PERMITTED TO PHOTOCOPY BEYOND THE LIMITS OF US COPYRIGHT LAW FOR PRIVATE USE OF PATRONS: (1) THOSE POST-1977 ARTICLES THAT CARRY A CODE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE FIRST PAGE, PROVIDED THE PER-COPY FEE INDICATED IN THE CODE IS PAID THROUGH THE COPYRIGHT CLEARANCE CENTER, 222 ROSEWOOD DR., DANVERS, MA 01923; (2) PRE-1978 ARTICLES WITHOUT FEE. FOR OTHER COPYING, REPRINT, OR REPUBLICATION PERMISSION, WRITE TO COPY- RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS DEPARTMENT, IEEE PUBLICATIONS ADMINISTRATION, 445 HOES LANE, P.O. BOX 1331, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-1331. Innovative Technology for Computer Professionals Editor in Chief Computing Practices Special Issues 2004 IEEE Computer Society Doris L. Carver Rohit Kapur Bill Schilit President Louisiana State University [email protected] [email protected] Carl K. Chang [email protected] [email protected] Perspectives Web Editor Associate Editors Bob Colwell James H. Aylor in Chief [email protected] [email protected] Bill Schilit Intel Research Features Kathleen Swigger Kathleen Swigger University of North Texas [email protected] Area Editors Column Editors Databases/Software At Random The Profession Edward A. Parrish Michael Blaha Bob Colwell Neville Holmes Worcester Polytechnic Institute OMT Associates Inc. Bookshelf University of Tasmania Ron Vetter University of North Carolina at Wilmington Multimedia Michael J. Lutz Security Alf Weaver Savitha Srinivasan Rochester Institute of Bill Arbaugh University of Virginia IBM Almaden Research Center Technology University of Maryland Networking and Communications Standards CS Publications Board Multimedia Upkar Varshney Gary Robinson Michael R. Williams (chair), Jean Bacon, Jonathan Liu Georgia State University EMC Corp. Laxmi Bhuyan, Mark Christensen, University of Florida Embedded Computing Web Technologies Thomas Keefe, Deepandra Moitra, Steven L. Tanimoto, Anand Tripathi Software Wayne Wolf Sumi Helal H. Dieter Rombach Princeton University University of Florida CS Magazine Operations AG Software Engineering Entertainment Computing Advisory Panel Committee Dan Cooke Michael R. Macedonia James H. Aylor Bill Schilit (chair), Jean Bacon, Pradip Bose, Texas Tech University Georgia Tech Research Institute University of Virginia Doris L. Carver, George Cybenko, John C. Dill, Frank E. Ferrante, Robert E. Filman, IT Systems Perspective Thomas Cain Richard G. Mathieu University of Pittsburgh Forouzan Golshani, David Alan Grier, St. Louis University Rajesh Gupta, Warren Harrison, Ralph Cavin Mahadev Satyanarayanan, Semiconductor Research Corp. Invisible Computing Nigel Shadbolt, Francis Sullivan Bill Schilit Ron Hoelzeman Intel University of Pittsburgh Editorial Staff Administrative Staff Scott Hamilton Mary-Louise G. Piner Executive Director Sales Representative Senior Acquisitions Editor Staff Lead Editor David W. Hennage Sandy Brown [email protected] Bob Ward Publisher Advertising Coordinator Judith Prow Membership News Editor Angela Burgess Marian Anderson Managing Editor Bryan Sallis [email protected] Manuscript Assistant Assistant Publisher James Sanders Design Dick Price Senior Editor Larry Bauer Membership & Circulation Linda World Dirk Hagner Marketing Manager Senior Editor Georgann Carter Lee Garber Production Senior News Editor Larry Bauer Chris Nelson Associate Editor Circulation: Computer (ISSN 0018-9162) is published monthly by the IEEE Computer Society. IEEE Headquarters, Three Park Avenue, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10016- 5997; IEEE Computer Society Publications Office, 10662 Los Vaqueros Circle, PO Box 3014, Los Alamitos, CA 90720-1314; voice +1 714 821 8380; fax +1 714 821 4010; IEEE Computer Society Headquarters,1730 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036-1903. IEEE Computer Society membership includes $14 for subscription of Computer magazine ($14 for students). Nonmember subscription rate available upon request. Single-copy prices: members $10.00; nonmembers $20.00. Postmaster: Send undelivered copies and address changes to Computer, IEEE Service Center, 445 Hoes Lane, Piscataway, NJ 08855. Periodicals Postage Paid at New York, New York, and at additional mailing offices. Canadian GST #125634188. Canada Post Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Agreement Number 0487910. Printed in USA. Editorial: Unless otherwise stated, bylined articles, as well as product and service descriptions, reflect the author’s or firm’s opinion. Inclusion in Computer does not necessar- ily constitute endorsement by the IEEE or the Computer Society. All submissions are subject to editing for style, clarity, and space. 2 Computer ARTICLE SUMMARIES A Tale of Three Disciplines ... systems for wireless communication and jobs. For US workers, this change raises and a Revolution embedded applications. Battery-pow- two different but complementary ques- pp. 30-36 ered mobile devices are replacing wall- tions. First, what
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