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Broker & Project Nominees CUSTOM CONTENT FEBRUARY 12, 2018 BROKER & PROJECT NOMINEES AWARDS DINNER Tuesday, February 20, 2018 | 6:00PM – 8:30PM The L.A. Hotel Downtown | 333 South Figueroa Street | Los Angeles, CA 90071 Tickets available at labusinessjournal.com/bizevents PLATINUM SPONSORS GOLD SPONSORS DAUM Commercial Real Estate Services Hudson Pacific Properties SILVER SPONSORS Colliers International | Howard Building Corporation | McCarthy Building Companies Millie and Severson | Oltmans Construction Co. | PCL Construction Services | Suffolk Construction 33-57_cre_pre-supp_v2.indd 33 2/8/2018 4:29:00 PM 34 LOS ANGELES BUSINESS JOURNAL – CUSTOM CONTENT FEBRUARY 12, 2018 2018 Commercial Real Estate Forecast Indicates Change and Opportunity, Domestically and Globally APID change is underway in the world’s in e-commerce outpaced that of overall retail commercial real estate industry, and the sales, and analytics will play a greater role as Rdynamics are in flux as the current invest- retailers embark on targeted and automated mar- ment cycle enters its latter stage. The industry keting campaigns. The need for omni-channel continues to contend with differing property retailing has not abated, and successful retailers’ fundamentals across asset types, markets and offerings include experiential retail and strong regions, with occupier behavior, innovation and digital storefronts with speedy delivery. technology acting as key sources of change that Notable U.S. industrial market highlights are taxing the sector. The current interest-rate include: environment is another contributor to this • The U.S. industrial market’s growth is change – albeit a somewhat limited factor. being fueled by logistics and distribution needs These are some of the key trends noted in Avi- related to growing adoption of e-commerce and son Young’s 2018 North America and Europe Com- bridging the last mile in the supply chain. Data mercial Real Estate Forecast, released last month. redundancy, technology and distribution have “We have spent the better part of three years all contributed to driving vacancy lower, pushing debating where we are in the real estate cycle; rents higher and spurring a considerable amount for 2017, we dragged out a baseball analogy, of new industrial development. Big data and the pondering what inning we were in,” commented Internet of Things will further push demand for Mark E. Rose, Chair and CEO of Avison Young. data centers in this sector. “We concluded that the real estate industry • As 2017 drew to a close, the U.S. industrial was in the late stages of the game, but could be sector totaled 11.2 bsf and reported an overall headed into extra innings. As we start 2018, vacancy rate of 5.2 % – a 10-bps dip from year- the game is still going, but there is a clear and end 2016. Another 188 msf of new construction palpable difference. Change is underway and the is underway. dynamics on the field are in flux. Our industry • U.S. industrial vacancy is expected to rise needs to decide what to do next.” slightly to approximately 5.4% at the end of Rose continued: “As we greet the New Year, pricing of assets based on a risk-adjusted real trajectory through 2018.” 2018 while 19 markets are forecasting vacancy to however, a critical difference is that change is in rate of return. Once the stalemate over prior Webb added: “Likewise, trends seen in 2017 fall year-over-year. motion – change that is positive, powerful and cycle strategies and underwriting ends, growth for the office sector are expected to continue in Supported by a period of historically low moving very quickly. This is the type of change should fuel more demand, reduce vacancies and 2018. Aging inventory and tenant demands for interest rates, investment sales volume rose each that creates opportunity and allows for success. cause rental rates to rise. When this change is on-site amenities will bring further renovation year between 2009 and 2015. In 2015, total Those who cannot accept this new reality will combined with efficiencies captured by the latest and reuse of older and obsolete properties. These volume nearly reached the 2007 peak of $572 dismiss it at their own peril.” technologies, we will welcome a new wave of are often repurposed to alternative property billion on the back of a slate of megadeals and He added: “Interest rates are at historic lows demand, performance and innovation.” types – we’ve seen office become residential, portfolio sales. After falling by 9% year-over-year and continue to stay low, but are moving up “U.S. commercial property markets demon- storage and even conversions to schools. Owners in 2016, transaction volume in 2017 trended incrementally, as they really only have one way strated further strength in terms of vacancy and are setting aside under-utilized spaces, portions still lower through November 2017. Neverthe- to go. Short-term interest rates are being prop- pricing in 2017 and the recent tax reform legis- of lobbies and other common areas for tenant less, pricing was supported and an abundance erly – and effectively – normalized by central lation could have a positive impact on real estate amenities, such as shared conference centers and of capital chased available deals. Select U.S. banks. There is stability and growth in the GDP and investors in 2018, in spite of the often-divi- gathering spaces. As well, landlords are building markets also reported significant, or historic, sale of the G7, and rising interest rates are typical sive issues facing the country,” commented Earl ready-to-occupy spec suites to attract smaller prices. Specific asset classes and key markets are in this environment. Capitalization rates are Webb, President, U.S. Operations for Avison tenants, and are often directly competing with performing well and this trend is expected to be another story. Commercial real estate has printed Young. “While overall sales transaction volume the expanding number of new co-working opera- amplified in 2018. trades at historically low cap rates, but the bid- fell for the second year in a row, domestic and tors. From an occupier standpoint, the new lease “There is no question about the global ask spread is widening – and acting as a brake foreign investors continue to view the U.S. as accounting standard is one year away from tak- appetite for industrial investments,” said John on transaction volumes in major markets. The a safe haven with specific markets and property ing effect and will, undoubtedly, cause occupiers Kevill, Principal and Managing Director of U.S. theory that interest rates will rise at the short sectors registering gains. And as we forecasted to study the costs and benefits of leasing versus Capital Markets for Avison Young. “With attrac- end, but thinning spreads will keep cap rates in at the beginning of 2017, an equilibrium was ownership seriously.” tive financing options persisting and new tax place, is not logical or supportable over the mid- legislation taking effect, capital markets should to-long term. Cap rates and corresponding return maintain their strength in 2018 – with even requirements will eventually move as financing more real estate exposure possible from private acquisitions becomes more expensive.” investors. Of course, markets thrive on clarity; Occupier behavior, states the report, is ‘Change is good when it benefits an industry and with several macroeconomic shifts underway another source of change that is challenging the and its stakeholders. When this change is across all product classes, we expect that demand market and more fundamentally driving innova- will continue to be strongest for well-established tion and performance. combined with efficiencies captured by the latest properties and institutional-quality offerings.” “Ultimately, these trends will prove beneficial technologies, we will welcome a new wave of After China led foreign investment in the as real estate is used more effectively and with U.S. in 2016, Canada reclaimed top spot, by far, greater cost efficiency,” said Rose. demand, performance and innovation.’ with more than $15 billion invested at year-end Technology, including its impact on real MARK E. ROSE, Avison Young 2017. Including Singapore, China, the Neth- estate solutions, is potentially the most exciting erlands and Germany, the top five countries element of change in the commercial real estate accounted for $34 billion in cross-border capital industry. Technology adoption – including arti- investment in the U.S. in 2017. ficial intelligence – is gaining so much momen- “We expect several factors to influence real tum that it is driving profitability and expanding achieved between new supply of space delivered Notable U.S. office market highlights include: estate occupancy and capital-markets activity capabilities exponentially. and overall incremental demand for space by • Avison Young is tracking 5.2 billion square in 2018,” added Webb. “Real estate will provide Wellness in the workplace is another occupiers. With modest interest-rate increases feet (bsf) of office inventory in 46 U.S. markets attractive yields relative to stock-and-bond alter- emerging trend that intersects with occupancy readily absorbed by both the debt and equity that had an overall vacancy rate of 11.8% at the natives as the growth rate of the stock market solutions, the hunt for talent and technology. markets, cap-rate compression largely ceased end of 2017, mirroring office vacancy in Canada, should slow from that of 2017.” Whole health, or the combination of physical during the year.” and falling 10 bps from year-end 2016’s 11.9% He concluded: “Essentially, we expect rental and mental wellness, is critical to the success of Webb continued: “An abundance of capital rate. U.S. vacancy is forecasted to increase stability to prevail in most markets. Although all enterprises. remains available for trades, pricing is strong slightly to 12% by year-end 2018. transaction volume will decline again, by as Rose concluded: “Change is good when it and property markets are registering meaningful • Office space under construction is 55% pre- much as 10% to 15% in major markets, pricing benefits an industry and its stakeholders.
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