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COACCH D2.6 Non-Market Impacts D2.6 Non‐market impacts ‐ Health Grant agreement no. 776479 COACCH CO‐designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs H2020‐SC5‐2016‐2017/H2020‐SC5‐2017‐OneStageB D2.6 Non‐market impacts ‐ health Work Package: 2 Due date of deliverable: M22 (SEP/2019) Actual submission date: preliminary version: 07/OCT/2019 final version: 31/MAR/2020 Start date of project: 01/DEC/2017 Duration: 22 months Lead beneficiary for this deliverable: Univerzita Karlova (CUNI) Contributors: Milan Ščasný (CUNI), Wouter W.J. Botzen (VU), Marek Šmíd (BC3), Anna Alberini (CUNI), Aline Chiabai (BC3), Jana Hroudová (CUNI), Pedja Ignjacevic (VU), Onno Kuik (VU), Martin Kryl (CUNI), Vojtěch Máca (CUNI), Marc Neumann (BC3), Joseph Spadaro (BC3), Iva Zvěřinová (CUNI) Disclaimer The content of this deliverable does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed herein lies entirely with the author(s). PU Page 1 Version 1.6 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement No 776479. D2.6 Non‐market impacts ‐ Health Dissemination Level PU Public x CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) CI Classified, as referred to in Commission Decision 2001/844/EC Suggested citation M. Ščasný, W.W.J. Botzen, M. Šmíd, A. Alberini, A. Chiabai, J. Hroudová, P. Ignjacevic, O. Kuik, M. Kryl, V. Máca, M. Neumann, J. Spadaro, I. Zvěřinová (2020). D2.6 Non‐market impacts: health. Deliverable of the H2020 COACCH project. PU Page 2 Version 1.6 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement No 776479. D2.6 Non‐market impacts ‐ Health Table of contents 1. The Urban Heat Island Effect in European Cities under Climate Change and Socio‐Economic Scenarios .......... 6 1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Methods: CLIMRISK temperature projections and the urban heat island ........................................................... 7 1.3 Results of the temperature projections in European cities ................................................................................. 8 1.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................... 16 References ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 2. Economic valuation of climate change induced mortality in the Netherlands ................................................. 18 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Methods and data .............................................................................................................................................. 19 2.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................................ 25 2.4 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................................... 31 2.5 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................... 32 Appendix A. Dynamic effects of temperature on mortality ..................................................................................... 34 References ............................................................................................................................................................... 36 3. Heat Wave Hotspot Risk mapping for major European urban areas ................................................................ 39 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 39 3.2 Conceptual framework and methodology ......................................................................................................... 41 3.3 Data .................................................................................................................................................................... 49 3.4 Population Data ................................................................................................................................................. 50 3.5 Human Development Index ............................................................................................................................... 50 3.6 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................ 50 3.7 Visualization ....................................................................................................................................................... 52 3.8 Risk hotspot maps .............................................................................................................................................. 52 3.9 European HWs Risk projected by the end of the century .................................................................................. 54 3.10 Discussion and conclusions of preliminary analysis ......................................................................................... 59 References ............................................................................................................................................................... 63 4. Valuation of heat related mortality risk ............................................................................................................ 69 4.1 The Value of Reducing Heat‐wave Mortality ..................................................................................................... 69 4.2 What VSL Should Be Used in Heat Wave Adaptation Policies? .......................................................................... 85 References ............................................................................................................................................................. 100 5. Valuation of protection measures against spread of ticks due to climate change and tick‐borne diseases .. 101 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 101 5.2 Methods and data ............................................................................................................................................ 104 5.3 Results: Exposure to and protection against ticks and tick‐borne diseases ..................................................... 106 5.4 Results: Preferences for public programmes against spread of ticks due to climate change and tick‐borne diseases ..................................................................................................................................................... 117 5.4 Results: Willingness to pay for a new vaccination against Lyme disease ........................................................ 135 PU Page 3 Version 1.6 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement No 776479. D2.6 Non‐market impacts ‐ Health References ............................................................................................................................................................. 138 6. Forecast of heat attributable mortality in Europe for the period 2030−2099 ................................................ 140 6.1 Aim of study ..................................................................................................................................................... 140 6.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................... 140 6.3 Results and Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 142 References ............................................................................................................................................................. 154 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................................ 155 7. Climate changes and mental health ................................................................................................................ 176 7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 176 7.2 Changes of mental health after acute weather events .................................................................................... 178 7.3 Weather variables and changes of behavior .................................................................................................... 181 7.4 Limitations .......................................................................................................................................................
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