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Appendices & Associated Documents John TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING ACT 1990, as amended SECTION 78 THE TOWN & COUNTRY PLANNING (INQUIRIES PROCEDURE) (ENGLAND) RULES 2000 PROOF OF EVIDENCE OF JOHN MACAULAY BEng (Hons) CEng MICE APPENDICES APPELLANT/S: Pinewood Studios Ltd. AGENT: DTZ APPEAL SITE: Site at land identified for Project Pinewood adjacent to Pinewood Studios, Pinewood Road, Iver Heath; Denham Road/Sevenhills Road Junction and Five Points Roundabout DEVELOPMENT: Living and working community for the creative industries with associated highway improvements L.P.A. REFERENCE: 09/00706/OUT; 09/00707/FUL and 9/00708/FUL. INSPECTORATE REFERENCE: APP/N0410/A/10/2126663; APP/N0410/A/2126665 and APP/N0410/A/2126667 February 2011 APPENDICES A Trip Forecasts Review Technical Note B Supplementary Safety Audit (Five Points and Seven Hills Road application schemes) C Designer’s Response to Five Points Audit only D Five Points Technical Note E Proposed A412 Road Safety Package F Proposed ITS Package G Proposed Traffic Calming and Environment Enhancement Package H Proposed Wider Bus Package I Extracts from TA 79/99 Traffic capacity of Urban Roads Appendix A Trip Forecasts Review Technical Note Pinewood Studios Inquiry Appendix A: Trip Forecasts Review Introduction During pre-application discussions the base line traffic generation figures from the existing Pinewood site and those forecast from the existing Masterplan planning consent were not examined in great depth. The reasons for this were essentially that these figures had been recently tested during consideration of the Masterplan application. Consequently, these were taken at face value and the available time was therefore focussed on consideration of the trip forecasts associated with the current Project Pinewood application. However, as a part of developing an evidence base for the impending inquiry, this work has been revisited the purpose of this note is therefore to undertake a ‘health check’ on the scale of trip forecast increases contained within the TA against the predicted increase in employment. Reference is also made to the existing and proposed parking provision. Existing Pinewood Site The existing Pinewood Film and Television Studios currently comprises 101,580m2 of office, workshops, studio and sound stage, post production and ancillary uses (Supplementary Technical Report: Stuart Michael Associates June 2004). The December 2008 Travel Survey, appended to the Transport Assessment (May 2009) presents the existing staff numbers on site as follows; 150 permanent staff 50 contract staff 750 tenant staff 950 total staff The Travel Survey, or Transport Assessment, does not mention Production Companies staff. 1 In Document 5: Economic Impact Assessment (May 2009) paragraph 3.3 refers to the:- 200 employees 750 tenant staff 800-1800 production companies staff 1750-2750 total staff Therefore, in terms of the existing site, the potential number of employees on site can range from 1,750 to 2,750 staff. The existing level of parking provision is understood to be 1,528 spaces (1 space per 66m2 GFA) Predicted Impact of Consented Masterplan The consented Masterplan was for a total development area of 67,260m2 (Supplementary Technical Report: Stuart Michael Associates June 2004). The level of parking provision for the Masterplan, including the existing site, is understood to be based on the existing ratio, and totals 2,306 spaces for the existing and Masterplan site (S106 Schedule 3: Details of Travel Plan March 22nd 2006). The employment figures for the consented Masterplan are presented in paragraph 3.6 of Document 5, which refers to a figure of 1,500 jobs. The number of employees on site, including the Masterplan, therefore ranges from 3,250 to 4,250 staff (based on the range quoted within Document 5). If we compare the predicted growth in Employment, as a result of the Masterplan, the ranges are as shown in Table 1 below; Table 1: Predicted Increase in Employees associated with Masterplan Pinewood + Pinewood - Existing Percentage Scenario Masterplan 2008 Increase 2014 High 1,750 3,250 85% Mid 2,250 3,750 66% Low 2,750 4,250 55% 2 The predicted increase in traffic assumed for the Masterplan within the TA is as shown in Tables 2 and 3 below. It should be noted that this review is based on the existing arrivals and departures as contained within the TA, however the number of employees on site at the time of the survey, and the extent to which this represents a typical day, is not known. Table 2: AM Peak Predicted Increase in Traffic associated with Masterplan Pinewood + Pinewood + Pinewood - Masterplan Masterplan Percentage Scenario Existing 2014 2014 Difference 2008 (Transport (Based on Assessment) Employment) High 641 968 1,185 22% Mid 641 968 1,064 10% Low 641 968 994 3% Table 3: PM Peak Predicted Increase in Traffic associated with Masterplan Pinewood + Pinewood + Pinewood - Masterplan Masterplan Percentage Scenario Existing 2014 2014 Difference 2008 (Transport (Based on Assessment) Employment) High 681 995 1,260 27% Mid 681 995 1,130 14% Low 681 995 1,055 6% The above comparison shows that the volume of traffic associated with the Masterplan is potentially significantly underestimated within the TA, by up to 27%. This would emphasise the need to consider a range in traffic forecasts. Predicted Impact of Project Pinewood It is understood Project Pinewood seeks permission for an additional 47,840 m2 GFA, bringing the total built environment to 175,080 m2 GFA. In terms of car parking, the total level of parking provision for the existing site, the Masterplan and Project Pinewood site is 4,506 spaces. 3 Although it is accepted that the trip rates associated with the residential elements are based on reasonable sources, the residential trips do however include the assumption that 20% of residents will work on site. It is not know the source of this assumption. In addition, a further 10% reduction has also been applied for the CTP. For the purpose of considering the potential range of trips, this assessment comprises; the forecasts assumed within the TA; the total residential trips without a reduction, and a mid point between the two values for high, low and mid forecasts respectively. The site uses associated with the film and television related uses total 11,000m2 GFA. The level of permanent employment associated with Project Pinewood is quoted as 628 to 728 permanent staff. The level of construction staff ranges from 431 to 544 over a 10 year period, with an additional 104 staff associated with the streetscapes Document 5: Economic Impact Assessment (May 2009) Para 3.16 & Table 3.2). The level of employment on Project Pinewood therefore ranges from 1,163 to 1,376. Table 4: Predicted Increase in Employees associated with Masterplan & Project Pinewood Pinewood + Pinewood + Pinewood Masterplan + Percentage Scenario Masterplan Project Pinewood Increase Existing 2008 2014 2022 High 1,750 3,250 4,413 152% Mid 2,250 3,750 5,020 123% Low 2,750 4,250 5,626 105% If the above percentages of increase in employees are applied to the existing traffic volumes accessing the site (on the basis that the uses are broadly similar), the future year traffic flows would be as shown in Tables 5 and 6: 4 Table 5: AM Peak Potential Increase in Traffic (2022) Total Pinewood Residential Total Traffic Percentage Scenario Employment Increase Existing 2008 Traffic 2022 Traffic 2022 2022 High 641 1,615 910 2,525 294% Mid 641 1,430 780 2,210 245% Low 641 1,314 649 1,963 206% Table 6: PM Peak Potential Increase in Traffic (2022) Total Pinewood Residential Total Traffic Percentage Scenario Employment Increase Existing 2008 Traffic 2022 Traffic 2022 2022 High 681 1,711 840 2,551 275% Mid 681 1,514 792 2,306 239% Low 681 1,392 743 2,135 215% The above potential range of traffic forecasts can then be compared against those contained within the TA, as shown in Table 7 below; Table 7: AM & PM Comparison of Potential Traffic against TA Forecasts (2022) AM Peak PM Peak Scenario Potential Potential TA Traffic Percentage TA Traffic Percentage Traffic Traffic Forecast* Forecasts* Difference Forecast Difference Forecast High 2,525 1,893 33% 2,551 1,962 30% Mid 2,210 1,893 17% 2,306 1,962 18% Low 1,963 1,893 4% 2,135 1,962 9% 5 Summary The purpose of this note is to consider the potential range of trip forecasts, based on the employment forecasts, and compare this range to the forecasts used within the TA. The basis of the review is the projected increases in employment, and is based on the figures quoted within the following documents; Supplementary Technical Report: Stuart Michael Associates June 2004; Project Pinewood Transport Assessment: Arup May 2009; and Document 5: Economic Impact Assessment: DTZ May 2009. The assessment demonstrates the difficulty in estimating the likely trip generation of the site, and the potential range of trips which could occur. As shown, the potential traffic generation could be up to 33% higher than that assumed within the operational assessments. This demonstrates that, given the broad range of potential trips and uncertainty over the frequency to which the trips assumed within the TA could be exceeded, sensitivity tests which consider the impact of a range of trip forecasts need to be assessed. 6 Appendix A – Summary of Project Pinewood Trip Generation (Transport Assessment: Arup May 2009 – Section 6.5) AM Peak PM Peak Land Use Comment Arrivals Departures Total Arrivals Departures Total Rates based on combination of Pinewood Green Estate & Trewarden Residential 85 564 649 456 287 743 Avenue Estate. A reduction based on internalisation of trips and the CTP has been applied. Rates based on assumed employment Creative Industries 108 0 108 0 79 79 density and travel to works surveys.
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