Palestinian Economic Crisis

32995 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Palestinian EconomicCrisis –Intifada,Closuresand Years Four An Assessment An World Bank, World October 2004 October Four Years – Intifada, Closures and Palestinian Economic Crisis An Assessment World Bank, October 2004 Contents 1. Closures and Curfews . 1 Internal Closure . 1 External closure . 3 2. Economic Developments . 9 Macroeconomic trends in 2003 . 9 Labor market developments. 12 Public finances . 20 PA 2004 budget . 23 Private consumption and investments . 24 External trade. 26 3. Impact on Households and Communities . 29 Poverty . 29 Subsistence Poverty. 32 The Nutrition And Health Status Of The Palestinian Population . 35 Household Coping Strategies. 38 Impact of Closures on Communities—An Example From Six Villages Near Bethlehem . 38 4. Service Delivery . 45 PA health services . 45 PA Education Services. 46 PA Social Assistance . 52 Municipal Services. 55 UNRWA services . 57 Palestinian NGOs . 59 5. The Response of Donors . 63 The Framework for Donor Response—PA Planning instruments . 63 Donor Assistance in 2003 . 64 Breakdown by type of assistance . 65 INTIFADA, CLOSURES, AND PALESTINIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS FOUR YEARS iii CONTENTS The effectiveness of emergency assistance . 69 Overall impact of emergency assistance . 70 Ways to improve targeting efficiency of emergency assistance . 72 Targeting efficiency of individual types of emergency assistance . 74 Government of Israel’s facilitation of donor activity . 75 Donor reactions. 78 6. Going Forward. 81 The economic outlook for 2004-06. 81 The status quo scenario . 83 The easing of internal closures scenario . 84 The trade facilitation scenario . 84 Going forward: priorities for the PA . 84 Going forward: priorities for donors . 88 Actions recommended to the Government of Israel. 92 iv FOUR YEARS INTIFADA, CLOSURES, AND PALESTINIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Percentage of Hours Under Curfew, June 2002-September 2004. 2 Figure 1.2 Employment in Israel and the Settlements, 2000-2004Q2. 4 Figure 1.3 Monthly Truckload Crossings, Gaza Strip, 2003. 5 Figure 2.1 GDP per capita, 1998-2003 . 11 Figure 2.2 Unemployment Rates by Age Group, 1999-2003 . 16 Figure 2.3 Unemployment Rate by Educational Level, 1999-2003 . 17 Figure 2.4 Real Wage Indices, 2000Q4-2004Q2. 18 Figure 2.5 Annual Growth in Public Employment, 1995-2003 . 21 Figure 2.6 Consumer Price Indices, September 2000-May 2004. 25 Figure 2.7 NIS/US$ Exchange Rate, September 2000-May 2004. 25 Figure 2.8 Import and Export Indices, 1999-2004Q2. 26 Figure 3.1 Quarterly Economic Dependency Ratio, 2000-2003 . 30 Figure 4.1 Net Enrollment Rate . 48 Figure 4.2 Higher Education Enrollment, 1994 to2003 (1,000 people) . 52 Figure 4.3 Financing of UNRWA’s Emergency Appeals, 2001 to2004. 59 Figure 5.1 Governments Employees’ Place in the Income Distribution, 2003 . 76 LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1 The Separation Barrier.. 5 Box 2.1 Economic Developments in Israel in 2003. 11 Box 2.2 Availability of Economic Data and World Bank Projections. 12 Box 2.3 Has job growth stalled?. 14 Box 2.4 What brought Palestinians back into the labor market in 2003?. 15 Box 2.5 Impact of the Separation Barrier on Employment in Israel. 18 Box 2.6 Consumer Prices and Exchange Rate Trends . 25 Box 3.1 Why do estimates of poverty differ so much? . 31 Box 3.2 A Topography of the Six Villages . 40 Box 4.1 Basic Statistics of the Palestinian School System. 48 Box 4.2 Impact on Solid Waste Collection. 56 Box 4.3 The Emergency Municipal Services Rehabilitation Project (EMSRP). 57 Box 5.1 WFP Locally-Purchased Olive Oil program. 70 Box 5.2 Increased Costs for Humanitarian Assistance . 77 Box 6.1 Why do the projections differ from Twenty-Seven Months? . 82 Box 6.2 Developing Palestinian Trade . 85 Box 6.3 The.

Load more