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A Transport Strategy for the South East

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A Transport Strategy for the South East A Transport Strategy for the South East Rupert Clubb Chief Officer Contents 1. Our Region: characteristics and challenges 2. Our Approach : how the Transport Strategy was developed 3. Our Vision: Vision, Goals, Priorities and Principles 4.Our Strategy: presented as Six Journey Types 5. Next Steps: future work programme & public consultation exercise Part 1 Our Region A motor for the UK economy Our Environment Tough choices Strategic Corridors Priority industrial sectors in the South East area Low Carbon IT Advanced Transport & Engineering & Logistics Creative Manufacturing Tourism Lo Priority Marine Finance & industrial Maritime & Professional Defence Services sectors Forecast employment growth in the South East area by 2041 (Source: ONS) Employment growth forecast Forecast housing growth in the South East area by 2041 (Source: ONS) Housing growth forecast Deprivation Road Network Congestion Part 2 Our Approach Today Current indicators based on the Current split of movement types TfSE to Other Department for Transport’s National 3% TfSE to London Trip End Model 8% 7% Within Other to TfSE TfSE 80% 2% 7.8m 3.3m £183bn 20.9m London to TfSE Population Employment GVA Trips Current mode share 70% 4% 5% 21% Includes walking Vehicle Miles Forecasts (England and Wales) Range from 17% to 51% increase Business As Usual (2050) Change by movement type Change by key £217bn TfSE to Other +29% TfSE to indicator London +22% +42% Within Other to TfSE TfSE +11% +24% London to TfSE 3.08m 968k 402k Change in trips by mode 12% 12% 119% 15% 19% 27% Population Employment GVA Trips 30% –6% Forecast traffic growth to 2050 Our approach – strategy direction Planning for People Number of motor of motor vehiclesNumber Time Our approach - plan & provide The Year Scenario forecasting Possible 2050 futures Plausible futures Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario Development Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Time Scenario 1: The London Hub Scenario 3: Route to Growth Higher than expected growth in London The South East makes more of its unique assets, with the South East becoming a becoming more specialised and locally dormitory for London focussed? • More local employment • Higher population growth • Growth of priority sectors • Increased housing stock • Slightly higher population growth • Lower productivity growth • Increased cross-regional travel • Increased radial travel Scenario 2: Digital Future Scenario 4: Sustainable Future Digital transformation at a faster Increased focus on environmental rate sustainability • Convenience driven tech-solutions • Lower levels of productivity-led growth • Highly productive economy • Shift away from heavy industry • Labour market disruption • Focus on protecting the environment • Less need for business travel • Reduced inequality • Faster adoption of CAVs • Demand Management policies Scenario Results Scenario Population Employment GVA Trips BaU 8.6m 3.7m £399bn 24.0m 9.7m 3.9m £430bn 26.6m 8.5m 3.7m £411bn 24.2m 9.1m 4.3m £481bn 26.4m 8.6m 3.7m £404bn 23.1m Scenario 1: The London Hub Scenario 3: Route to Growth Higher than expected growth in London The South East makes more of its unique assets, with the South East becoming a becoming more specialised and locally dormitory for London focussed? • More local employment • Higher population growth • Growth of priority sectors • Increased housing stock • Slightly higher population growth • Lower productivity growth • Increased cross-regional travel • Increased radial travelA Sustainable Route to Growth • Reduced inequality • Investment in sustainable Scenario 2: Digital Future Scenario 4: Sustainable Future • More local employment transport to support cross- Digital transformation at a faster regionalIncreased travel focus on environmental • Growth of priority sectors rate • Demandsustainability management policies • Highly productive economy • • Convenience driven tech-solutions • FasterLower adoption levels of of productivity digital -led growth • Highly productive• Focus economy on protecting and technology• Shift away and from CAVs heavy industry enhancing the environment • Labour market disruption • Less• Focus need on for protecting business the travel environment • Less need for business travel • Reduced inequality • Faster adoption of CAVs • Demand Management policies Sustainable Route to Growth Change compared to Business as Change by movement type Usual (2050) TfSE to Other +£59bn – 14% TfSE to +474k London +912k +1% +4% Within Other to TfSE +91k TfSE +4% +47% London to TfSE 1% 13% 15% 4% Population Employment GVA Trips Change in trips by mode –9% 108% BAU 120% –7% 2050 8.7m 3.7m £399bn 24.0m Part 3 Our Vision Our Vision Vision Describes our preferred future Strategic Goals Describes the goals we need to achieve to realise our preferred future Strategic The mechanisms and outcomes Priorities required to achieve our goals Principles Describes the principles we will apply to implement our strategy Vision A Sustainable Route to Growth By 2050, the South East of England will be a leading global region for net-zero carbon, sustainable economic growth where integrated transport, digital and energy networks have delivered a step change in connectivity and environmental quality. A high-quality, reliable, safe and accessible transport network will offer seamless door-to-door journeys enabling our businesses to compete and trade more effectively in the global marketplace and giving our residents and visitors the highest quality of life. Goals Economic Improve productivity to grow our economy and better compete in the global marketplace. Social Environmental Improve health, and Protect and enhance the wellbeing, safety, quality South East’s unique of life, and access to natural, built and historic opportunities for environment and tackle everyone. climate change together Priorities Economic Social Environmental Connectivity Health, & journey wellbeing & CO2 Zero Carbon times quality of life Reduced need Reliability Air quality for travel Affordability Protected and Resilience & enhanced accessibility environment Integrated Biodiversity Integration planning net gain Digital & Minimal travel demand Safety resource management consumption Radial Journeys Inter Journeys Local Journeys Future Orbital andOrbital Coastal Journeys Freight Principles International Economic Growth, - but not at any cost Journeys urban Achieving Environmental Sustainability Gateways Planning for Successful Places Putting the User at the Heart of the Transport System and Planning Regionally for the Short, Medium and Long Term Part 4 Our Strategy Centred on Six Journey Types Radial Orbital Inter- Local International Future journeys and urban journeys Gateways journeys coastal journeys and freight journeys journeys Radial Potential future Crossrail 2 LONDON Potential Isle of Potential Grain passenger Crossrail Crossrail 1 services extension Dartford Potential to improve Reading journey times to M4 North East Kent Medway Heathrow Ebbsfleet Towns Journey times on East Faversham A299 Ramsgate Reading – Waterloo Croydon M2 M3 Woking M20 rail services Maidstone A2 Basingstoke Guildford M23 Long journey times to A303 Maidstone Ashford Dover Gatwick A3 South West A20 Alton East Potential Main Line Grinstead capacity extension of Horsham A21 HS1 services M3 A23 Uckfield Brighton Mainline Legend Improvement Programme Radial Motorway Southampton Hastings Radial Dual Carriageway Road Poor Connectivity Portsmouth Bognor Littlehampton Brighton on A21/Hastings Radial Single Regis Newhaven Line Corridor Carriageway Road Eastbourne Ryde Radial Railway Island Line Radial Opportunity Renewal Radial Opportunity Shanklin Radial Issue Crossrail Orbital and Coastal Lower Thames A404 Crossing Thamesport Reading Heathrow Sheerness Opportunity for alternative M3/M4 link A322 Chatham A249 (avoiding Bracknell) A228 A229 Ramsgate A339 A33 M25 A331 A256 A34 Guildford A322 A26 Medway A28 Valley Line Gatwick Dover Airport A34 A325 A31 A2070 A36 Southampton Airport A259 Legend M27 East Coastway Line Shoreham Orbital Motorway A31 A27 A27 Hastings Orbital Dual Southampton Carriageway Road Portsmouth Brighton Slow journey times on Newhaven Ryde coastal rail routes Cowes Orbital Railway Orbital Issue Radial Corridor Interurban & Local Freight & International Gateways Western Rail LONDON Lower Thames Access to Heathrow Crossing Thamesport Reading Ebbsfleet Sheerness M4 Heathrow Airport Southern Rail Chatham A299 Access to Heathrow A249 A229 Woking M20 Ramsgate M2 M25 A34 M2/M20 Junction Dover Port Access improvements A2 (and rail gauge) Basingstoke Guildford M23 Ashford Potential future Dover A3 Gatwick – Ashford/ A20 Gatwick Medway rail services Airport Longer term solution M3/A34 Junction for Operation Stack Cross Channel Improvements Brighton and lorry parking Rail freight M3 Mainline Opportunities? A23 Improvement Southampton Programme Airport Legend Southampton M27 Port expansion Shoreham Motorway Port of Southampton Dual Carriageway Brighton Portsmouth Single Carriageway Newhaven Ryde Cowes Railway Opportunity Key Junction Future Journeys Challenges Responses 1. Gaps in electric and digital 1. Future proof electric and digital infrastructure infrastructure (standards, etc) 2. Risk some parts of the South 2. Incorporate Mobility As A Service East will be ‘left behind’ into public transport networks 3. Risk new technologies may 3. Encourage consistency in roll out of undermine walking, cycling smart ticketing systems and public transport 4. Develop Future Mobility Strategy 4. Risk new technologies may for the South East lead to further fragmentation
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