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High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill Final Report October 2015 East Sussex County Council, Hastings Borough Council and Rother District Council Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill 345375 TPN ITD Final 4 P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\345375 High Speed Rail Hastings and Bexhill\2. Docs Out\151001 Final report_v4.docx October 2015 Final Report Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill Final Report October 2015 East Sussex County Council, Hastings Borough Council and Rother District Council Mott MacDonald, Fourth floor, 9 Portland Street, Manchester M1 3BE, United Kingdom T +44 (0)161 638 0885 W www.mottmac.com Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description 0 11.12.2014 M Ferrari S Cox Internal draft 0 18.12.2014 M Ferrari S Cox P Hammond Draft report 1 09.03.2015 M Ferrari S Cox P Hammond Final report 2 29.05.2015 M Ferrari N Clay S Cox Final report v2 (RDC comments) 3 23.07.2015 M Ferrari S Cox Final report v3 (Changes following Hastings & Rother Task Force meeting) 4 01.10.2015 M Ferrari S Cox Final report v4 (RDC comments) Information class: Standard This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission used for any other purpose. which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. 345375/TPN/ITD/Final/4 October 2015 P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\345375 High Speed Rail Hastings and Bexhill\2. Docs Out\151001 Final report_v4.docx Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill Contents Chapter Title Page Strategic Economic Case – Key Messages i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Appointment and study team __________________________________________________________ 1 1.2 Hastings and Bexhill Study Area _______________________________________________________ 1 1.3 Purpose and scope of study ___________________________________________________________ 3 1.4 Report structure ____________________________________________________________________ 5 2 Economic context 6 2.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.2 Population ________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.3 Employment and economy ____________________________________________________________ 8 2.4 Labour market ____________________________________________________________________ 10 2.5 Deprivation _______________________________________________________________________ 19 2.6 Economic outlook __________________________________________________________________ 20 2.7 Visitor economy ___________________________________________________________________ 23 2.8 Summary ________________________________________________________________________ 27 3 Economic growth aspirations 28 3.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 28 3.2 London and its surrounds - the big picture _______________________________________________ 28 3.3 SE LEP growth ambitions and areas ___________________________________________________ 30 3.4 Growth ambitions of the study area ____________________________________________________ 33 3.5 Summary ________________________________________________________________________ 39 4 Consultation findings 40 4.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 40 4.2 Background ______________________________________________________________________ 40 4.3 Scheme and potential impact _________________________________________________________ 43 4.4 Summary ________________________________________________________________________ 49 5 Economic and regeneration benefits assessment 50 5.1 Introduction and approach ___________________________________________________________ 50 5.2 Existing and future rail infrastructure ___________________________________________________ 51 5.3 Overarching growth plans ____________________________________________________________ 53 5.4 Visitor economy and potential growth ___________________________________________________ 61 5.5 Summary ________________________________________________________________________ 65 6 Agglomeration benefits and labour supply impacts 67 6.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 67 Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill 6.2 Data analysis _____________________________________________________________________ 68 6.3 Results __________________________________________________________________________ 70 6.4 Summary ________________________________________________________________________ 70 7 Key Conclusions 71 7.1 Introduction and scheme proposals ____________________________________________________ 71 7.2 Economic context – challenges and growth planned _______________________________________ 72 7.3 Scale of economic impact ____________________________________________________________ 77 Appendices 81 Appendix A. Planning background and settlement analysis ____________________________________________ 82 A.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 82 A.2 Hastings – core strategy _____________________________________________________________ 82 A.3 Rother – core strategy ______________________________________________________________ 83 A.4 Settlement analysis ________________________________________________________________ 84 A.5 Tourism and cultural sector __________________________________________________________ 85 Appendix B. High Speed Rail literature review ______________________________________________________ 86 B.1 Introduction and background _________________________________________________________ 86 B.2 High speed rail and economic performance ______________________________________________ 86 B.3 International evidence of the economic impact of high speed rail _____________________________ 88 B.4 The UK experience _________________________________________________________________ 91 B.5 Summary ________________________________________________________________________ 93 B.6 References _______________________________________________________________________ 94 Appendix C. Consultee list _____________________________________________________________________ 95 Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill Strategic Economic Case – Key Messages Mott MacDonald was appointed in October 2014 to develop the strategic economic case for extending the high speed rail Javelin services from London St Pancras to Hastings and Bexhill, which will provide a significant reduction in journey times thereby enhancing connectivity with London. The service would be a direct link with no changing at Ashford International and take the London St. Pancras-Hastings and Bexhill journey time down to 68 minutes (from 91minutes currently). Hastings and Bexhill - exemplar of successful regeneration Regeneration has been a cornerstone of economic development policy in Hastings and Bexhill for many years and over the last decade, via joined up activity across the public, private and voluntary sectors, public perceptions of the area have been transformed. Over £200m of public sector money has been invested in Hastings and Bexhill including the completion of a new university campus, further education college developments and key commercial developments such as Enviro21 and the Priory Quarter creating new employment space which has attracted high profile mobile investments such as Saga’s insurance operations in 2011. The soon to be completed Bexhill-to-Hastings Link Road will unlock extensive business schemes on 42 acres of land in north-east Bexhill, which alongside the other strategic employment sites being delivered in the study area will transform the area’s commercial property market. The study area’s reputation as a cultural centre continues to strengthen with flagship projects such as the iconic De La Warr Pavilion and Jerwood Gallery stimulating new cultural economic activity. Images and perceptions of dilapidated seaside resorts are being transformed in the light of new investment and a commitment by the public, private & voluntary sectors to address economic development challenges. Foundations for growth in place The regeneration of the study area is an ongoing process and the Hastings-Bexhill Six Point Plan sets out a well-co-ordinated approach for economic development to address key action areas to ensure further investment successes and economic growth. Hastings and Bexhill’s regeneration trajectory over the last two decades i Economic Case: High Speed Rail to Hastings and Bexhill has ensured that the foundations have been made through the labour market, commercial property market, business support and changing image and perceptions to ensure the area is ready to capitalise on any growth opportunities that emerge. Importantly there is now an established pipeline of premises and development sites that are market ready to support growth and an inviting cultural and quality of life offer for existing and new residents. Figure E1.1:
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