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MINSTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Paramaribo Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Final Report November, 2017 Public Disclosure Authorized Acknowledgements The Paramaribo Strategic Flood Risk Assessment, produced as part of the Greater Paramaribo Flood Risk Management Program, is the result of World Bank technical work started in 2016 at the request of the Government of Suriname through the Minister of Public Works. Numerous entities and professionals interested in the subject participated and an important group of collaborators made possible the materialization of this assessment. The team especially wishes to thank the guidance and leadership of Sophie Sirtaine (former Country Director, LCC3C and current Strategy and Operations Director, IEGDG), Tahseen Sayed Khan (Country Director, LCC3C), Pierre Nadji (Senior Country Officer, LCC3C), Sameh Naguib Wahba Tadros (Director GSURB), and Ming Zhang (Practice Manager GSU10). Leading Authors and Editors: The assessment was prepared by a group of specialists in disaster risk management led by Armando Guzman (Task Team Leader, GSURR), that included Scott Ferguson (GSURR), Isabella Bovolo (GSURR), Juliana Castano-Isaza (GSURR), Mark Lawless (JBA Consulting), Matt Eliot (JBA Consulting), Aliastair Dale (JBA Consulting) and Jose Sabatini (JBA Consulting). Team: The complete work team included: The Government of Suriname, with particular technical contributions from Satish Mohan and his team of engineers from the Ministry of Public works; Sukarni Sallons-Mitro from Ministry of Public Works, Meteorological Services; Armand Amatali from Ministry of Public Works, Hydraulic research division; Col. Jerry Slijngard from National Coordination Centre for Disaster Preparedness (NCCR); Krieshen Ramkhelawan from the Ground and Land Information System Management Institute (GLIS); and JBA UK Limited, who carried out much of the computational modelling work. Invaluable support and leadership was provided during the assessment by Santosh J. Soman, Permanent Secretary of the Civil Technical Department from the Ministry of Public Works; and Iris Sandel, Permanent Secretary for Development Finance from the Ministry of Finance, with additional support provided by Prof. Sieuwnath Naipal from the University of Suriname, Armstrong Alexis and Haidy Malone from UNDP Suriname country Office, Stephanie van Doorn from the IDB Suriname Country office, John Goedschalk (Director, Conservation International Suriname), Sofie Ruysschaert (WWF Suriname), Inez Demon (Director, CELOS), Cedric Nelom (Acting general Director, NIMOS), Rene Somobariwo (Foundation for Forest Management and Production Control -SBB), and Bernice Mahabier (Maritime Authority of Suriname). Reviewers: The team received support and comments from Suranga Kahandawa (DRM Specialist, GSU18); Lorenzo Carrera (DRM and CC Specialist); and Glenn-Marie Lange (Senior Environmental Economist, GENGE). Front page image: Photograph: Armando Guzmán Flood Risk Assessment P a g e ii This publication was funded by the European Union in the framework of the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. The views expressed in this publication are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union, the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The material contained herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable but it is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. © International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank MMXVII 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433, www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved Flood Risk Assessment P a g e iii Abbreviations AAB Annual Average Benefit ACP-EU NDRR Africa-Caribbean-Pacific EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program AAD Annual Average Damages AdKUS Antom de Kom University of Suriname AFD Agence Francaise de Development ARI Annual Recurrence Interval CBA Cost-benefit analysis CBR Cost-benefit ratio (ratio of costs and benefits, each weighted according to discount rate) CRA Coastal Resilience Assessment CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility CELOS Centre for Agricultural Research Suriname CHARIM Caribbean Handbook on Risk Information Management CI Conservation International COP21 Conference of Parties 21 CPA Coastal Protection Act CPS Country Partnership Strategy DEM Digital Elevation Model DRM Disaster Risk Management DTM Digital Terrain Model EU European Union FRA Flood Risk Assessment GCM Global Climate Model GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery GLIS Ground and Land Information System Management Institute GoS Government of Suriname GPS Global Positioning System HEC-RAS US Corp of Engineers Flood Modelling Software HWM High Water Mark ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan (2010) IDB Inter-American Development Bank IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LAC Latin America and the Caribbean LD Local Datum MAS Maritime Authority of Suriname MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation MoPW Ministry of Public Works, Government of Suriname MSL Mean Sea Level NAPAs National Adaptation Programme of Actions Flood Risk Assessment P a g e iv NCCR National Coordination Centre for Disaster Preparedness NIMOS National Institute for Environment and Development in Suriname NOAA US-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPV Net Present Value NSP ‘Normaal Surinaams Plein’ (national reference plane for Suriname) PLP Property Level Protection RR Required Return SBB Foundation for Forest Management and Housing, Government of Suriname SHOM French National Hydrographic Service SOBEK Deltares Flood Modelling Software SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission STU Sediment Trapping Unit TA Technical Assistance UFCOP World Bank Urban Flood Community and Practice UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme WB World Bank WWF World Wildlife Fund yr year Flood Risk Assessment P a g e v Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. ii Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... x Executive Summary for Flood Risk Assessment ...................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction. ................................................................................................................................. 10 1.1 Introduction and context. ..................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Objectives.............................................................................................................................. 13 1.3 Sectoral and institutional context. ........................................................................................ 14 1.4 Principal activities. ................................................................................................................ 16 1.5 Key outputs. .......................................................................................................................... 16 1.6 Relationship to country partnership strategy. ...................................................................... 17 1.7 Relationship with other in-country activities. ....................................................................... 17 2 Methodology. ................................................................................................................................ 18 2.1 Component 1: Analysis of flood hazard affecting Greater Paramaribo. ............................... 20 2.2 Component 2: Flood risk assessment for Greater Paramaribo. ........................................... 29 2.3 Component 3: Mitigation Options Analysis. ......................................................................... 32 2.4 Component 4: Development of a Flood Management Investment Plan. ............................. 33 3 Flooding in Paramaribo. ................................................................................................................ 34 3.1 General description. .............................................................................................................. 34 3.2 River flooding. ....................................................................................................................... 35 3.3 Pluvial flooding. ..................................................................................................................... 36 3.4 Coastal flooding. ................................................................................................................... 43 4 Risk assessment and key findings ................................................................................................