Least Squares Fitting
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Ordinary Least Squares 1 Ordinary Least Squares
Ordinary least squares 1 Ordinary least squares In statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) or linear least squares is a method for estimating the unknown parameters in a linear regression model. This method minimizes the sum of squared vertical distances between the observed responses in the dataset and the responses predicted by the linear approximation. The resulting estimator can be expressed by a simple formula, especially in the case of a single regressor on the right-hand side. The OLS estimator is consistent when the regressors are exogenous and there is no Okun's law in macroeconomics states that in an economy the GDP growth should multicollinearity, and optimal in the class of depend linearly on the changes in the unemployment rate. Here the ordinary least squares method is used to construct the regression line describing this law. linear unbiased estimators when the errors are homoscedastic and serially uncorrelated. Under these conditions, the method of OLS provides minimum-variance mean-unbiased estimation when the errors have finite variances. Under the additional assumption that the errors be normally distributed, OLS is the maximum likelihood estimator. OLS is used in economics (econometrics) and electrical engineering (control theory and signal processing), among many areas of application. Linear model Suppose the data consists of n observations { y , x } . Each observation includes a scalar response y and a i i i vector of predictors (or regressors) x . In a linear regression model the response variable is a linear function of the i regressors: where β is a p×1 vector of unknown parameters; ε 's are unobserved scalar random variables (errors) which account i for the discrepancy between the actually observed responses y and the "predicted outcomes" x′ β; and ′ denotes i i matrix transpose, so that x′ β is the dot product between the vectors x and β. -
Learning Geometric Algebra by Modeling Motions of the Earth and Shadows of Gnomons to Predict Solar Azimuths and Altitudes
Learning Geometric Algebra by Modeling Motions of the Earth and Shadows of Gnomons to Predict Solar Azimuths and Altitudes April 24, 2018 James Smith [email protected] https://mx.linkedin.com/in/james-smith-1b195047 \Our first step in developing an expression for the orientation of \our" gnomon: Diagramming its location at the instant of the 2016 December solstice." Abstract Because the shortage of worked-out examples at introductory levels is an obstacle to widespread adoption of Geometric Algebra (GA), we use GA to calculate Solar azimuths and altitudes as a function of time via the heliocentric model. We begin by representing the Earth's motions in GA terms. Our representation incorporates an estimate of the time at which the Earth would have reached perihelion in 2017 if not affected by the Moon's gravity. Using the geometry of the December 2016 solstice as a starting 1 point, we then employ GA's capacities for handling rotations to determine the orientation of a gnomon at any given latitude and longitude during the period between the December solstices of 2016 and 2017. Subsequently, we derive equations for two angles: that between the Sun's rays and the gnomon's shaft, and that between the gnomon's shadow and the direction \north" as traced on the ground at the gnomon's location. To validate our equations, we convert those angles to Solar azimuths and altitudes for comparison with simulations made by the program Stellarium. As further validation, we analyze our equations algebraically to predict (for example) the precise timings and locations of sunrises, sunsets, and Solar zeniths on the solstices and equinoxes. -
Schaum's Outline of Linear Algebra (4Th Edition)
SCHAUM’S SCHAUM’S outlines outlines Linear Algebra Fourth Edition Seymour Lipschutz, Ph.D. Temple University Marc Lars Lipson, Ph.D. University of Virginia Schaum’s Outline Series New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto Copyright © 2009, 2001, 1991, 1968 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior writ- ten permission of the publisher. ISBN: 978-0-07-154353-8 MHID: 0-07-154353-8 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN: 978-0-07-154352-1, MHID: 0-07-154352-X. All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. To contact a representative please e-mail us at [email protected]. TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw-Hill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. -
Exercise 7.5
IN SUMMARY Key Idea • A projection of one vector onto another can be either a scalar or a vector. The difference is the vector projection has a direction. A A a a u u O O b NB b N B Scalar projection of a on b Vector projection of a on b Need to Know ! ! ! ! a # b ! • The scalar projection of a on b ϭϭ! 0 a 0 cos u, where u is the angle @ b @ ! ! between a and b. ! ! ! ! ! ! a # b ! a # b ! • The vector projection of a on b ϭ ! b ϭ a ! ! b b @ b @ 2 b # b ! • The direction cosines for OP ϭ 1a, b, c2 are a b cos a ϭ , cos b ϭ , 2 2 2 2 2 2 Va ϩ b ϩ c Va ϩ b ϩ c c cos g ϭ , where a, b, and g are the direction angles 2 2 2 Va ϩ b ϩ c ! between the position vector OP and the positive x-axis, y-axis and z-axis, respectively. Exercise 7.5 PART A ! 1. a. The vector a ϭ 12, 32 is projected onto the x-axis. What is the scalar projection? What is the vector projection? ! b. What are the scalar and vector projections when a is projected onto the y-axis? 2. Explain why it is not possible to obtain! either a scalar! projection or a vector projection when a nonzero vector x is projected on 0. 398 7.5 SCALAR AND VECTOR PROJECTIONS NEL ! ! 3. Consider two nonzero vectors,a and b, that are perpendicular! ! to each other.! Explain why the scalar and vector projections of a on b must! be !0 and 0, respectively. -
MATH 304 Linear Algebra Lecture 24: Scalar Product. Vectors: Geometric Approach
MATH 304 Linear Algebra Lecture 24: Scalar product. Vectors: geometric approach B A B′ A′ A vector is represented by a directed segment. • Directed segment is drawn as an arrow. • Different arrows represent the same vector if • they are of the same length and direction. Vectors: geometric approach v B A v B′ A′ −→AB denotes the vector represented by the arrow with tip at B and tail at A. −→AA is called the zero vector and denoted 0. Vectors: geometric approach v B − A v B′ A′ If v = −→AB then −→BA is called the negative vector of v and denoted v. − Vector addition Given vectors a and b, their sum a + b is defined by the rule −→AB + −→BC = −→AC. That is, choose points A, B, C so that −→AB = a and −→BC = b. Then a + b = −→AC. B b a C a b + B′ b A a C ′ a + b A′ The difference of the two vectors is defined as a b = a + ( b). − − b a b − a Properties of vector addition: a + b = b + a (commutative law) (a + b) + c = a + (b + c) (associative law) a + 0 = 0 + a = a a + ( a) = ( a) + a = 0 − − Let −→AB = a. Then a + 0 = −→AB + −→BB = −→AB = a, a + ( a) = −→AB + −→BA = −→AA = 0. − Let −→AB = a, −→BC = b, and −→CD = c. Then (a + b) + c = (−→AB + −→BC) + −→CD = −→AC + −→CD = −→AD, a + (b + c) = −→AB + (−→BC + −→CD) = −→AB + −→BD = −→AD. Parallelogram rule Let −→AB = a, −→BC = b, −−→AB′ = b, and −−→B′C ′ = a. Then a + b = −→AC, b + a = −−→AC ′. -
Linear Algebra - Part II Projection, Eigendecomposition, SVD
Linear Algebra - Part II Projection, Eigendecomposition, SVD (Adapted from Punit Shah's slides) 2019 Linear Algebra, Part II 2019 1 / 22 Brief Review from Part 1 Matrix Multiplication is a linear tranformation. Symmetric Matrix: A = AT Orthogonal Matrix: AT A = AAT = I and A−1 = AT L2 Norm: s X 2 jjxjj2 = xi i Linear Algebra, Part II 2019 2 / 22 Angle Between Vectors Dot product of two vectors can be written in terms of their L2 norms and the angle θ between them. T a b = jjajj2jjbjj2 cos(θ) Linear Algebra, Part II 2019 3 / 22 Cosine Similarity Cosine between two vectors is a measure of their similarity: a · b cos(θ) = jjajj jjbjj Orthogonal Vectors: Two vectors a and b are orthogonal to each other if a · b = 0. Linear Algebra, Part II 2019 4 / 22 Vector Projection ^ b Given two vectors a and b, let b = jjbjj be the unit vector in the direction of b. ^ Then a1 = a1 · b is the orthogonal projection of a onto a straight line parallel to b, where b a = jjajj cos(θ) = a · b^ = a · 1 jjbjj Image taken from wikipedia. Linear Algebra, Part II 2019 5 / 22 Diagonal Matrix Diagonal matrix has mostly zeros with non-zero entries only in the diagonal, e.g. identity matrix. A square diagonal matrix with diagonal elements given by entries of vector v is denoted: diag(v) Multiplying vector x by a diagonal matrix is efficient: diag(v)x = v x is the entrywise product. Inverting a square diagonal matrix is efficient: 1 1 diag(v)−1 = diag [ ;:::; ]T v1 vn Linear Algebra, Part II 2019 6 / 22 Determinant Determinant of a square matrix is a mapping to a scalar. -
Basics of Linear Algebra
Basics of Linear Algebra Jos and Sophia Vectors ● Linear Algebra Definition: A list of numbers with a magnitude and a direction. ○ Magnitude: a = [4,3] |a| =sqrt(4^2+3^2)= 5 ○ Direction: angle vector points ● Computer Science Definition: A list of numbers. ○ Example: Heights = [60, 68, 72, 67] Dot Product of Vectors Formula: a · b = |a| × |b| × cos(θ) ● Definition: Multiplication of two vectors which results in a scalar value ● In the diagram: ○ |a| is the magnitude (length) of vector a ○ |b| is the magnitude of vector b ○ Θ is the angle between a and b Matrix ● Definition: ● Matrix elements: ● a)Matrix is an arrangement of numbers into rows and columns. ● b) A matrix is an m × n array of scalars from a given field F. The individual values in the matrix are called entries. ● Matrix dimensions: the number of rows and columns of the matrix, in that order. Multiplication of Matrices ● The multiplication of two matrices ● Result matrix dimensions ○ Notation: (Row, Column) ○ Columns of the 1st matrix must equal the rows of the 2nd matrix ○ Result matrix is equal to the number of (1, 2, 3) • (7, 9, 11) = 1×7 +2×9 + 3×11 rows in 1st matrix and the number of = 58 columns in the 2nd matrix ○ Ex. 3 x 4 ॱ 5 x 3 ■ Dot product does not work ○ Ex. 5 x 3 ॱ 3 x 4 ■ Dot product does work ■ Result: 5 x 4 Dot Product Application ● Application: Ray tracing program ○ Quickly create an image with lower quality ○ “Refinement rendering pass” occurs ■ Removes the jagged edges ○ Dot product used to calculate ■ Intersection between a ray and a sphere ■ Measure the length to the intersection points ● Application: Forward Propagation ○ Input matrix * weighted matrix = prediction matrix http://immersivemath.com/ila/ch03_dotprodu ct/ch03.html#fig_dp_ray_tracer Projections One important use of dot products is in projections. -
An Analysis of Random Design Linear Regression
An Analysis of Random Design Linear Regression Daniel Hsu1,2, Sham M. Kakade2, and Tong Zhang1 1Department of Statistics, Rutgers University 2Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Abstract The random design setting for linear regression concerns estimators based on a random sam- ple of covariate/response pairs. This work gives explicit bounds on the prediction error for the ordinary least squares estimator and the ridge regression estimator under mild assumptions on the covariate/response distributions. In particular, this work provides sharp results on the \out-of-sample" prediction error, as opposed to the \in-sample" (fixed design) error. Our anal- ysis also explicitly reveals the effect of noise vs. modeling errors. The approach reveals a close connection to the more traditional fixed design setting, and our methods make use of recent ad- vances in concentration inequalities (for vectors and matrices). We also describe an application of our results to fast least squares computations. 1 Introduction In the random design setting for linear regression, one is given pairs (X1;Y1);:::; (Xn;Yn) of co- variates and responses, sampled from a population, where each Xi are random vectors and Yi 2 R. These pairs are hypothesized to have the linear relationship > Yi = Xi β + i for some linear map β, where the i are noise terms. The goal of estimation in this setting is to find coefficients β^ based on these (Xi;Yi) pairs such that the expected prediction error on a new > 2 draw (X; Y ) from the population, measured as E[(X β^ − Y ) ], is as small as possible. -
ROBUST LINEAR LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION 3 Bias Term R(F ∗) R(F (Reg)) Has the Order D/N of the Estimation Term (See [3, 6, 10] and References− Within)
The Annals of Statistics 2011, Vol. 39, No. 5, 2766–2794 DOI: 10.1214/11-AOS918 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011 ROBUST LINEAR LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION By Jean-Yves Audibert and Olivier Catoni Universit´eParis-Est and CNRS/Ecole´ Normale Sup´erieure/INRIA and CNRS/Ecole´ Normale Sup´erieure and INRIA We consider the problem of robustly predicting as well as the best linear combination of d given functions in least squares regres- sion, and variants of this problem including constraints on the pa- rameters of the linear combination. For the ridge estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator, and their variants, we provide new risk bounds of order d/n without logarithmic factor unlike some stan- dard results, where n is the size of the training data. We also provide a new estimator with better deviations in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. It is based on truncating differences of losses in a min–max framework and satisfies a d/n risk bound both in expectation and in deviations. The key common surprising factor of these results is the absence of exponential moment condition on the output distribution while achieving exponential deviations. All risk bounds are obtained through a PAC-Bayesian analysis on truncated differences of losses. Experimental results strongly back up our truncated min–max esti- mator. 1. Introduction. Our statistical task. Let Z1 = (X1,Y1),...,Zn = (Xn,Yn) be n 2 pairs of input–output and assume that each pair has been independently≥ drawn from the same unknown distribution P . Let denote the input space and let the output space be the set of real numbersX R, so that P is a proba- bility distribution on the product space , R. -
Testing for Heteroskedastic Mixture of Ordinary Least 5
TESTING FOR HETEROSKEDASTIC MIXTURE OF ORDINARY LEAST 5. SQUARES ERRORS Chamil W SENARATHNE1 Wei JIANGUO2 Abstract There is no procedure available in the existing literature to test for heteroskedastic mixture of distributions of residuals drawn from ordinary least squares regressions. This is the first paper that designs a simple test procedure for detecting heteroskedastic mixture of ordinary least squares residuals. The assumption that residuals must be drawn from a homoscedastic mixture of distributions is tested in addition to detecting heteroskedasticity. The test procedure has been designed to account for mixture of distributions properties of the regression residuals when the regressor is drawn with reference to an active market. To retain efficiency of the test, an unbiased maximum likelihood estimator for the true (population) variance was drawn from a log-normal normal family. The results show that there are significant disagreements between the heteroskedasticity detection results of the two auxiliary regression models due to the effect of heteroskedastic mixture of residual distributions. Forecasting exercise shows that there is a significant difference between the two auxiliary regression models in market level regressions than non-market level regressions that supports the new model proposed. Monte Carlo simulation results show significant improvements in the model performance for finite samples with less size distortion. The findings of this study encourage future scholars explore possibility of testing heteroskedastic mixture effect of residuals drawn from multiple regressions and test heteroskedastic mixture in other developed and emerging markets under different market conditions (e.g. crisis) to see the generalisatbility of the model. It also encourages developing other types of tests such as F-test that also suits data generating process. -
Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis for a Regression Model Versus Application of GUM Supplement 1 to the Least-Squares Estimate
Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience Bayesian uncertainty analysis for a regression model versus application of GUM Supplement 1 to the least-squares estimate This content has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text. 2011 Metrologia 48 233 (http://iopscience.iop.org/0026-1394/48/5/001) View the table of contents for this issue, or go to the journal homepage for more Download details: IP Address: 129.6.222.157 This content was downloaded on 20/02/2014 at 14:34 Please note that terms and conditions apply. IOP PUBLISHING METROLOGIA Metrologia 48 (2011) 233–240 doi:10.1088/0026-1394/48/5/001 Bayesian uncertainty analysis for a regression model versus application of GUM Supplement 1 to the least-squares estimate Clemens Elster1 and Blaza Toman2 1 Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Abbestrasse 2-12, 10587 Berlin, Germany 2 Statistical Engineering Division, Information Technology Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology, US Department of Commerce, Gaithersburg, MD, USA Received 7 March 2011, in final form 5 May 2011 Published 16 June 2011 Online at stacks.iop.org/Met/48/233 Abstract Application of least-squares as, for instance, in curve fitting is an important tool of data analysis in metrology. It is tempting to employ the supplement 1 to the GUM (GUM-S1) to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the resulting parameter estimates, although doing so is beyond the specified scope of GUM-S1. We compare the result of such a procedure with a Bayesian uncertainty analysis of the corresponding regression model. -
Quantum Flatland and Monolayer Graphene from a Viewpoint of Geometric Algebra A
Vol. 124 (2013) ACTA PHYSICA POLONICA A No. 4 Quantum Flatland and Monolayer Graphene from a Viewpoint of Geometric Algebra A. Dargys∗ Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Semiconductor Physics Institute A. Go²tauto 11, LT-01108 Vilnius, Lithuania (Received May 11, 2013) Quantum mechanical properties of the graphene are, as a rule, treated within the Hilbert space formalism. However a dierent approach is possible using the geometric algebra, where quantum mechanics is done in a real space rather than in the abstract Hilbert space. In this article the geometric algebra is applied to a simple quantum system, a single valley of monolayer graphene, to show the advantages and drawbacks of geometric algebra over the Hilbert space approach. In particular, 3D and 2D Euclidean space algebras Cl3;0 and Cl2;0 are applied to analyze relativistic properties of the graphene. It is shown that only three-dimensional Cl3;0 rather than two-dimensional Cl2;0 algebra is compatible with a relativistic atland. DOI: 10.12693/APhysPolA.124.732 PACS: 73.43.Cd, 81.05.U−, 03.65.Pm 1. Introduction mension has been reduced, one is automatically forced to change the type of Cliord algebra and its irreducible Graphene is a two-dimensional crystal made up of car- representation. bon atoms. The intense interest in graphene is stimulated On the other hand, if the problem was formulated in by its potential application in the construction of novel the Hilbert space terms then, generally, the neglect of nanodevices based on relativistic physics, or at least with one of space dimensions does not spoil the Hilbert space.