Skedastic: Heteroskedasticity Diagnostics for Linear Regression
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Hypothesis Testing and Likelihood Ratio Tests
Hypottthesiiis tttestttiiing and llliiikellliiihood ratttiiio tttesttts Y We will adopt the following model for observed data. The distribution of Y = (Y1, ..., Yn) is parameter considered known except for some paramett er ç, which may be a vector ç = (ç1, ..., çk); ç“Ç, the paramettter space. The parameter space will usually be an open set. If Y is a continuous random variable, its probabiiillliiittty densiiittty functttiiion (pdf) will de denoted f(yy;ç) . If Y is y probability mass function y Y y discrete then f(yy;ç) represents the probabii ll ii tt y mass functt ii on (pmf); f(yy;ç) = Pç(YY=yy). A stttatttiiistttiiicalll hypottthesiiis is a statement about the value of ç. We are interested in testing the null hypothesis H0: ç“Ç0 versus the alternative hypothesis H1: ç“Ç1. Where Ç0 and Ç1 ¶ Ç. hypothesis test Naturally Ç0 § Ç1 = ∅, but we need not have Ç0 ∞ Ç1 = Ç. A hypott hesii s tt estt is a procedure critical region for deciding between H0 and H1 based on the sample data. It is equivalent to a crii tt ii call regii on: a critical region is a set C ¶ Rn y such that if y = (y1, ..., yn) “ C, H0 is rejected. Typically C is expressed in terms of the value of some tttesttt stttatttiiistttiiic, a function of the sample data. For µ example, we might have C = {(y , ..., y ): y – 0 ≥ 3.324}. The number 3.324 here is called a 1 n s/ n µ criiitttiiicalll valllue of the test statistic Y – 0 . S/ n If y“C but ç“Ç 0, we have committed a Type I error. -
Understanding Linear and Logistic Regression Analyses
EDUCATION • ÉDUCATION METHODOLOGY Understanding linear and logistic regression analyses Andrew Worster, MD, MSc;*† Jerome Fan, MD;* Afisi Ismaila, MSc† SEE RELATED ARTICLE PAGE 105 egression analysis, also termed regression modeling, come). For example, a researcher could evaluate the poten- Ris an increasingly common statistical method used to tial for injury severity score (ISS) to predict ED length-of- describe and quantify the relation between a clinical out- stay by first producing a scatter plot of ISS graphed against come of interest and one or more other variables. In this ED length-of-stay to determine whether an apparent linear issue of CJEM, Cummings and Mayes used linear and lo- relation exists, and then by deriving the best fit straight line gistic regression to determine whether the type of trauma for the data set using linear regression carried out by statis- team leader (TTL) impacts emergency department (ED) tical software. The mathematical formula for this relation length-of-stay or survival.1 The purpose of this educa- would be: ED length-of-stay = k(ISS) + c. In this equation, tional primer is to provide an easily understood overview k (the slope of the line) indicates the factor by which of these methods of statistical analysis. We hope that this length-of-stay changes as ISS changes and c (the “con- primer will not only help readers interpret the Cummings stant”) is the value of length-of-stay when ISS equals zero and Mayes study, but also other research that uses similar and crosses the vertical axis.2 In this hypothetical scenario, methodology. -
Ordinary Least Squares 1 Ordinary Least Squares
Ordinary least squares 1 Ordinary least squares In statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) or linear least squares is a method for estimating the unknown parameters in a linear regression model. This method minimizes the sum of squared vertical distances between the observed responses in the dataset and the responses predicted by the linear approximation. The resulting estimator can be expressed by a simple formula, especially in the case of a single regressor on the right-hand side. The OLS estimator is consistent when the regressors are exogenous and there is no Okun's law in macroeconomics states that in an economy the GDP growth should multicollinearity, and optimal in the class of depend linearly on the changes in the unemployment rate. Here the ordinary least squares method is used to construct the regression line describing this law. linear unbiased estimators when the errors are homoscedastic and serially uncorrelated. Under these conditions, the method of OLS provides minimum-variance mean-unbiased estimation when the errors have finite variances. Under the additional assumption that the errors be normally distributed, OLS is the maximum likelihood estimator. OLS is used in economics (econometrics) and electrical engineering (control theory and signal processing), among many areas of application. Linear model Suppose the data consists of n observations { y , x } . Each observation includes a scalar response y and a i i i vector of predictors (or regressors) x . In a linear regression model the response variable is a linear function of the i regressors: where β is a p×1 vector of unknown parameters; ε 's are unobserved scalar random variables (errors) which account i for the discrepancy between the actually observed responses y and the "predicted outcomes" x′ β; and ′ denotes i i matrix transpose, so that x′ β is the dot product between the vectors x and β. -
The Detection of Heteroscedasticity in Regression Models for Psychological Data
Psychological Test and Assessment Modeling, Volume 58, 2016 (4), 567-592 The detection of heteroscedasticity in regression models for psychological data Andreas G. Klein1, Carla Gerhard2, Rebecca D. Büchner2, Stefan Diestel3 & Karin Schermelleh-Engel2 Abstract One assumption of multiple regression analysis is homoscedasticity of errors. Heteroscedasticity, as often found in psychological or behavioral data, may result from misspecification due to overlooked nonlinear predictor terms or to unobserved predictors not included in the model. Although methods exist to test for heteroscedasticity, they require a parametric model for specifying the structure of heteroscedasticity. The aim of this article is to propose a simple measure of heteroscedasticity, which does not need a parametric model and is able to detect omitted nonlinear terms. This measure utilizes the dispersion of the squared regression residuals. Simulation studies show that the measure performs satisfactorily with regard to Type I error rates and power when sample size and effect size are large enough. It outperforms the Breusch-Pagan test when a nonlinear term is omitted in the analysis model. We also demonstrate the performance of the measure using a data set from industrial psychology. Keywords: Heteroscedasticity, Monte Carlo study, regression, interaction effect, quadratic effect 1Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to: Prof. Dr. Andreas G. Klein, Department of Psychology, Goethe University Frankfurt, Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 6, 60629 Frankfurt; email: [email protected] 2Goethe University Frankfurt 3International School of Management Dortmund Leipniz-Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors 568 A. G. Klein, C. Gerhard, R. D. Büchner, S. Diestel & K. Schermelleh-Engel Introduction One of the standard assumptions underlying a linear model is that the errors are inde- pendently identically distributed (i.i.d.). -
Three Statistical Testing Procedures in Logistic Regression: Their Performance in Differential Item Functioning (DIF) Investigation
Research Report Three Statistical Testing Procedures in Logistic Regression: Their Performance in Differential Item Functioning (DIF) Investigation Insu Paek December 2009 ETS RR-09-35 Listening. Learning. Leading.® Three Statistical Testing Procedures in Logistic Regression: Their Performance in Differential Item Functioning (DIF) Investigation Insu Paek ETS, Princeton, New Jersey December 2009 As part of its nonprofit mission, ETS conducts and disseminates the results of research to advance quality and equity in education and assessment for the benefit of ETS’s constituents and the field. To obtain a PDF or a print copy of a report, please visit: http://www.ets.org/research/contact.html Copyright © 2009 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. ETS, the ETS logo, GRE, and LISTENING. LEARNING. LEADING. are registered trademarks of Educational Testing Service (ETS). SAT is a registered trademark of the College Board. Abstract Three statistical testing procedures well-known in the maximum likelihood approach are the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests. Although well-known, the application of these three testing procedures in the logistic regression method to investigate differential item function (DIF) has not been rigorously made yet. Employing a variety of simulation conditions, this research (a) assessed the three tests’ performance for DIF detection and (b) compared DIF detection in different DIF testing modes (targeted vs. general DIF testing). Simulation results showed small differences between the three tests and different testing modes. However, targeted DIF testing consistently performed better than general DIF testing; the three tests differed more in performance in general DIF testing and nonuniform DIF conditions than in targeted DIF testing and uniform DIF conditions; and the LR and score tests consistently performed better than the Wald test. -
Testing for INAR Effects
Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation ISSN: 0361-0918 (Print) 1532-4141 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/lssp20 Testing for INAR effects Rolf Larsson To cite this article: Rolf Larsson (2020) Testing for INAR effects, Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, 49:10, 2745-2764, DOI: 10.1080/03610918.2018.1530784 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2018.1530784 © 2019 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Published online: 21 Jan 2019. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 294 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=lssp20 COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS - SIMULATION AND COMPUTATIONVR 2020, VOL. 49, NO. 10, 2745–2764 https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2018.1530784 Testing for INAR effects Rolf Larsson Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY In this article, we focus on the integer valued autoregressive model, Received 10 April 2018 INAR (1), with Poisson innovations. We test the null of serial independ- Accepted 25 September 2018 ence, where the INAR parameter is zero, versus the alternative of a KEYWORDS positive INAR parameter. To this end, we propose different explicit INAR model; Likelihood approximations of the likelihood ratio (LR) statistic. We derive the limit- ratio test ing distributions of our statistics under the null. In a simulation study, we compare size and power of our tests with the score test, proposed by Sun and McCabe [2013. Score statistics for testing serial depend- ence in count data. -
Application of General Linear Models (GLM) to Assess Nodule Abundance Based on a Photographic Survey (Case Study from IOM Area, Pacific Ocean)
minerals Article Application of General Linear Models (GLM) to Assess Nodule Abundance Based on a Photographic Survey (Case Study from IOM Area, Pacific Ocean) Monika Wasilewska-Błaszczyk * and Jacek Mucha Department of Geology of Mineral Deposits and Mining Geology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Cracow, Poland; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: The success of the future exploitation of the Pacific polymetallic nodule deposits depends on an accurate estimation of their resources, especially in small batches, scheduled for extraction in the short term. The estimation based only on the results of direct seafloor sampling using box corers is burdened with a large error due to the long sampling interval and high variability of the nodule abundance. Therefore, estimations should take into account the results of bottom photograph analyses performed systematically and in large numbers along the course of a research vessel. For photographs taken at the direct sampling sites, the relationship linking the nodule abundance with the independent variables (the percentage of seafloor nodule coverage, the genetic types of nodules in the context of their fraction distribution, and the degree of sediment coverage of nodules) was determined using the general linear model (GLM). Compared to the estimates obtained with a simple Citation: Wasilewska-Błaszczyk, M.; linear model linking this parameter only with the seafloor nodule coverage, a significant decrease Mucha, J. Application of General in the standard prediction error, from 4.2 to 2.5 kg/m2, was found. The use of the GLM for the Linear Models (GLM) to Assess assessment of nodule abundance in individual sites covered by bottom photographs, outside of Nodule Abundance Based on a direct sampling sites, should contribute to a significant increase in the accuracy of the estimation of Photographic Survey (Case Study nodule resources. -
The Simple Linear Regression Model
The Simple Linear Regression Model Suppose we have a data set consisting of n bivariate observations {(x1, y1),..., (xn, yn)}. Response variable y and predictor variable x satisfy the simple linear model if they obey the model yi = β0 + β1xi + ǫi, i = 1,...,n, (1) where the intercept and slope coefficients β0 and β1 are unknown constants and the random errors {ǫi} satisfy the following conditions: 1. The errors ǫ1, . , ǫn all have mean 0, i.e., µǫi = 0 for all i. 2 2 2 2. The errors ǫ1, . , ǫn all have the same variance σ , i.e., σǫi = σ for all i. 3. The errors ǫ1, . , ǫn are independent random variables. 4. The errors ǫ1, . , ǫn are normally distributed. Note that the author provides these assumptions on page 564 BUT ORDERS THEM DIFFERENTLY. Fitting the Simple Linear Model: Estimating β0 and β1 Suppose we believe our data obey the simple linear model. The next step is to fit the model by estimating the unknown intercept and slope coefficients β0 and β1. There are various ways of estimating these from the data but we will use the Least Squares Criterion invented by Gauss. The least squares estimates of β0 and β1, which we will denote by βˆ0 and βˆ1 respectively, are the values of β0 and β1 which minimize the sum of errors squared S(β0, β1): n 2 S(β0, β1) = X ei i=1 n 2 = X[yi − yˆi] i=1 n 2 = X[yi − (β0 + β1xi)] i=1 where the ith modeling error ei is simply the difference between the ith value of the response variable yi and the fitted/predicted valuey ˆi. -
Comparison of Wald, Score, and Likelihood Ratio Tests for Response Adaptive Designs
Journal of Statistical Theory and Applications Volume 10, Number 4, 2011, pp. 553-569 ISSN 1538-7887 Comparison of Wald, Score, and Likelihood Ratio Tests for Response Adaptive Designs Yanqing Yi1∗and Xikui Wang2 1 Division of Community Health and Humanities, Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. Johns, Newfoundland, Canada A1B 3V6 2 Department of Statistics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3T 2N2 Abstract Data collected from response adaptive designs are dependent. Traditional statistical methods need to be justified for the use in response adaptive designs. This paper gener- alizes the Rao's score test to response adaptive designs and introduces a generalized score statistic. Simulation is conducted to compare the statistical powers of the Wald, the score, the generalized score and the likelihood ratio statistics. The overall statistical power of the Wald statistic is better than the score, the generalized score and the likelihood ratio statistics for small to medium sample sizes. The score statistic does not show good sample properties for adaptive designs and the generalized score statistic is better than the score statistic under the adaptive designs considered. When the sample size becomes large, the statistical power is similar for the Wald, the sore, the generalized score and the likelihood ratio test statistics. MSC: 62L05, 62F03 Keywords and Phrases: Response adaptive design, likelihood ratio test, maximum likelihood estimation, Rao's score test, statistical power, the Wald test ∗Corresponding author. Fax: 1-709-777-7382. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Yanqing Yi), xikui [email protected] (Xikui Wang) Y. Yi and X. -
This Is Dr. Chumney. the Focus of This Lecture Is Hypothesis Testing –Both What It Is, How Hypothesis Tests Are Used, and How to Conduct Hypothesis Tests
TRANSCRIPT: This is Dr. Chumney. The focus of this lecture is hypothesis testing –both what it is, how hypothesis tests are used, and how to conduct hypothesis tests. 1 TRANSCRIPT: In this lecture, we will talk about both theoretical and applied concepts related to hypothesis testing. 2 TRANSCRIPT: Let’s being the lecture with a summary of the logic process that underlies hypothesis testing. 3 TRANSCRIPT: It is often impossible or otherwise not feasible to collect data on every individual within a population. Therefore, researchers rely on samples to help answer questions about populations. Hypothesis testing is a statistical procedure that allows researchers to use sample data to draw inferences about the population of interest. Hypothesis testing is one of the most commonly used inferential procedures. Hypothesis testing will combine many of the concepts we have already covered, including z‐scores, probability, and the distribution of sample means. To conduct a hypothesis test, we first state a hypothesis about a population, predict the characteristics of a sample of that population (that is, we predict that a sample will be representative of the population), obtain a sample, then collect data from that sample and analyze the data to see if it is consistent with our hypotheses. 4 TRANSCRIPT: The process of hypothesis testing begins by stating a hypothesis about the unknown population. Actually we state two opposing hypotheses. The first hypothesis we state –the most important one –is the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis states that the treatment has no effect. In general the null hypothesis states that there is no change, no difference, no effect, and otherwise no relationship between the independent and dependent variables. -
The Scientific Method: Hypothesis Testing and Experimental Design
Appendix I The Scientific Method The study of science is different from other disciplines in many ways. Perhaps the most important aspect of “hard” science is its adherence to the principle of the scientific method: the posing of questions and the use of rigorous methods to answer those questions. I. Our Friend, the Null Hypothesis As a science major, you are probably no stranger to curiosity. It is the beginning of all scientific discovery. As you walk through the campus arboretum, you might wonder, “Why are trees green?” As you observe your peers in social groups at the cafeteria, you might ask yourself, “What subtle kinds of body language are those people using to communicate?” As you read an article about a new drug which promises to be an effective treatment for male pattern baldness, you think, “But how do they know it will work?” Asking such questions is the first step towards hypothesis formation. A scientific investigator does not begin the study of a biological phenomenon in a vacuum. If an investigator observes something interesting, s/he first asks a question about it, and then uses inductive reasoning (from the specific to the general) to generate an hypothesis based upon a logical set of expectations. To test the hypothesis, the investigator systematically collects data, either with field observations or a series of carefully designed experiments. By analyzing the data, the investigator uses deductive reasoning (from the general to the specific) to state a second hypothesis (it may be the same as or different from the original) about the observations. -
Heteroscedastic Errors
Heteroscedastic Errors ◮ Sometimes plots and/or tests show that the error variances 2 σi = Var(ǫi ) depend on i ◮ Several standard approaches to fixing the problem, depending on the nature of the dependence. ◮ Weighted Least Squares. ◮ Transformation of the response. ◮ Generalized Linear Models. Richard Lockhart STAT 350: Heteroscedastic Errors and GLIM Weighted Least Squares ◮ Suppose variances are known except for a constant factor. 2 2 ◮ That is, σi = σ /wi . ◮ Use weighted least squares. (See Chapter 10 in the text.) ◮ This usually arises realistically in the following situations: ◮ Yi is an average of ni measurements where you know ni . Then wi = ni . 2 ◮ Plots suggest that σi might be proportional to some power of 2 γ γ some covariate: σi = kxi . Then wi = xi− . Richard Lockhart STAT 350: Heteroscedastic Errors and GLIM Variances depending on (mean of) Y ◮ Two standard approaches are available: ◮ Older approach is transformation. ◮ Newer approach is use of generalized linear model; see STAT 402. Richard Lockhart STAT 350: Heteroscedastic Errors and GLIM Transformation ◮ Compute Yi∗ = g(Yi ) for some function g like logarithm or square root. ◮ Then regress Yi∗ on the covariates. ◮ This approach sometimes works for skewed response variables like income; ◮ after transformation we occasionally find the errors are more nearly normal, more homoscedastic and that the model is simpler. ◮ See page 130ff and check under transformations and Box-Cox in the index. Richard Lockhart STAT 350: Heteroscedastic Errors and GLIM Generalized Linear Models ◮ Transformation uses the model T E(g(Yi )) = xi β while generalized linear models use T g(E(Yi )) = xi β ◮ Generally latter approach offers more flexibility.