Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Jal Simulations to Physics Parameterizations
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Escap/77/Inf/1
ESCAP/77/INF/1 Distr.: General 12 March 2021 English only Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Seventy-seventh session Bangkok and online, 26-29 April 2021 Items 4 (f) and (i) of the provisional agenda* Review of the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific and issues pertinent to the subsidiary structure of the Commission: Committee on Environment and Development Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction Annual reports of international and intergovernmental organizations provided to the Commission** Summary The present document contains overviews of the annual reports of the following international and intergovernmental organizations: the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia; the Mekong River Commission; the Typhoon Committee; and the Panel on Tropical Cyclones. These organizations were established under the auspices of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific to work on areas under their respective competence to support economic and social development in the region. The Commission may wish to comment on the work of these organizations and take note of the present document. I. Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia 1. The Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia has been established under the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) since 1966. In 1991, the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia has become an independent intergovernmental organization. With a vision to be “a premier intergovernmental Earth Science Organization in East and Southeast Asia”, the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia has worked towards its mission to contribute significantly to the economic development and sustainable management of the environment and of improving the quality of life of its member countries by the application of Earth Science knowledge. -
Coastal Sea Level Response to the Tropical Cyclonic Forcing in the North Indian Ocean’ by Mehta Et Al
16 April 2014 To The Editor Ocean Science Sub: Reply to the comments of reviewer#2 on ’Coastal sea level response to the tropical cyclonic forcing in the north Indian Ocean’ by Mehta et al. (OSD). Sir, Kindly find the reply to the comments of reviewer#2 on the manuscript submitted by Mehra et al. (OSD) entitled "Coastal sea level response to the tropical cyclonic forcing in the north Indian Ocean". Thanks & regards Prakash Mehra NIO, Goa, India Interactive comment on “Coastal sea level response to the tropical cyclonic forcing in the north Indian Ocean” by P. Mehra et al. Anonymous Referee #2 Received and published: 22 March 2014 Reviewer's comment: This paper describes and analyses the coastal sea level response to two storm events at the end of 2011 in the north Indian Ocean. The authors use the sea level and atmospheric observations at 9 locations along the Indian coast and perform a classical but robust analysis (spectral analyses and multi-linear regression). Although there are no new findings, it gives a fair idea of the causes of the sea level variation in response to these strong atmospheric events. The Figures, Tables and References are clear and support well the present text. It is also interesting to have an analysis done at large scale and on both sides of the Indian Subcontinent (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal). The scientific quality of the paper is good but in my opinion the presentation of the results is poor and makes the paper hard to read and the purpose of the authors difficult to follow. -
Analysis of Average Rainfall Super Cyclone by Using Double Integration Technique
International Journal of Scientific Research in ___________________________ Research Paper . Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Volume-7, Issue-2, pp.82-85, April (2020) E-ISSN: 2348-4519 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26438/ijsrmss/v7i2.8285 Analysis of Average Rainfall Super Cyclone by using Double Integration Technique A. Tiwari1, Y. K. Rajoria2*, R. Boadh3, R. Singh4 1,2,3,4 Department of Mathematics, KR Mangalam University, Gurugram, Haryana, India *Corresponding Author: [email protected] Tel.: +91 9897108103 Available online at: www.isroset.org Received: 06/Mar/2020, Accepted: 10/Apr/2020, Online: 30/Apr/2020 Abstract— Cyclones are highly calamitous weather phenomena initiating harm to the life and physical organization in tropical seafaring countries. Cyclones form over whole-hearted tropical oceans and change to the land under the act of routing forces. India's eastern coastline is one of the most violent wind inclined regions on the planet. Despite the fact that the coastline of Orisha has been just about 17% of the Indian eastern coastline, yet Orisha has been influenced by about 35% of all cyclonic and serious cyclonic tempests that have crossed the eastern coastline and related tempest floods that have been regularly immersing huge areas along the coasts. A Cyclone is an enormous scale air mass that turns around a solid focal point of low climatic weight caused due to low atmospheric pressure over oceans resulting in rainfall in the coastal regions. The results of this study indicate that the double integration technique has good potential for calculating the average rainfall during the super cyclone. Keywords—Tempests, Tropical Cyclone, Super Cyclone, Rainfall, Double IntegrationTechinque I. -
Study Report on Gaja Cyclone 2018 Study Report on Gaja Cyclone 2018
Study Report on Gaja Cyclone 2018 Study Report on Gaja Cyclone 2018 A publication of: National Disaster Management Authority Ministry of Home Affairs Government of India NDMA Bhawan A-1, Safdarjung Enclave New Delhi - 110029 September 2019 Study Report on Gaja Cyclone 2018 National Disaster Management Authority Ministry of Home Affairs Government of India Table of Content Sl No. Subject Page Number Foreword vii Acknowledgement ix Executive Summary xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Cyclone Gaja 13 Chapter 3 Preparedness 19 Chapter 4 Impact of the Cyclone Gaja 33 Chapter 5 Response 37 Chapter 6 Analysis of Cyclone Gaja 43 Chapter 7 Best Practices 51 Chapter 8 Lessons Learnt & Recommendations 55 References 59 jk"Vªh; vkink izca/u izkf/dj.k National Disaster Management Authority Hkkjr ljdkj Government of India FOREWORD In India, tropical cyclones are one of the common hydro-meteorological hazards. Owing to its long coastline, high density of population and large number of urban centers along the coast, tropical cyclones over the time are having a greater impact on the community and damage the infrastructure. Secondly, the climate change is warming up oceans to increase both the intensity and frequency of cyclones. Hence, it is important to garner all the information and critically assess the impact and manangement of the cyclones. Cyclone Gaja was one of the major cyclones to hit the Tamil Nadu coast in November 2018. It lfeft a devastating tale of destruction on the cyclone path damaging houses, critical infrastructure for essential services, uprooting trees, affecting livelihoods etc in its trail. However, the loss of life was limited. -
Press Release-5
Government of India Earth System Science Organisation Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department Earth System Science Organisation PRESS RELEASE-5 Time of issue: 1330 hours IST Dated: 28-10-2019 Sub: (a) Super Cyclonic Storm over eastcentral Arabian Sea to weaken gradually from 28th evening and (b) development of fresh low pressure area over Equatorial Indian Ocean to the south of Sri Lanka (a) Super Cyclonic Storm over eastcentral Arabian Sea to weaken gradually from 28th evening Yesterday’s Super Cyclonic Storm “KYARR” (pronounced as KYARR) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lay centered near latitude 18.2°N and longitude 65.0°E over eastcentral Arabian Sea, about 830 km west-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra), 1160 km east-northeast of Salalah (Oman) and 690 km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards till 30th October re-curve west- southwestwards thereafter and move towards Gulf of Aden off south Oman-Yemen coasts during subsequent 3 days. It is very likely to maintain the intensity of a Super Cyclonic Storm till 28th October evening and weaken gradually thereafter. Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table: Date/Time(IST) Position Maximum sustained Category of cyclonic disturbance (Lat. 0N/ long. surface 0E) wind speed (Kmph) 28.10.19/0830 18.2/65.0 230-240 gusting to 265 Super Cyclonic Storm 28.10.19/1130 18.4/64.8 220-230 gusting to 255 Super Cyclonic Storm 28.10.19/1730 18.6/64.3 210-220 gusting to 240 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm -
Coastal Sea Level Response to the Tropical Cyclonic Forcing in the North
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Ocean Sci. Discuss., 11, 575–611, 2014 Open Access www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/11/575/2014/ Ocean Science doi:10.5194/osd-11-575-2014 Discussions © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Ocean Science (OS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in OS if available. Coastal sea level response to the tropical cyclonic forcing in the north Indian Ocean P. Mehra1, S. Mohan1, P. Vethamony1, K. Vijaykumar1, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair2, Y. Agarvadekar1, K. Jyoti1, K. Sudheesh1, R. Luis1, S. Lobo1, and B. Harmalkar1 1CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa, India 2Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, Goa, India Received: 13 December 2013 – Accepted: 27 January 2014 – Published: 20 February 2014 Correspondence to: P. Mehra ([email protected]) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 575 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract The study examines the observed storm-generated sea-level variation due to deep depression (Event-E1) in the Arabian Sea from 26 November–1 December 2011 and a cyclonic storm “THANE” (Event-E2) over the Bay of Bengal during 25–31 Decem- 5 ber 2011. The sea-level and surface meteorological measurements collected during these extreme events exhibit strong synoptic disturbances leading to storm surge up to 43 cm on the west coast and 29 cm on the east coast of India due to E1 and E2. E1 generated sea level oscillations at the measuring stations on the west coast (Ratnagiri, Verem and Karwar) and east coast (Mandapam and Tuticorin) of India with significant 10 energy bands centered at periods of 92, 43 and 23 min. -
NUMERICAL SIMULATION of TROPICAL CYCLONES and STORM SURGES in the ARABIANSEA Mohsen Soltanpour, K
36th International Conference on Coastal Engineering K. N. Toosi University of Technology Waseda University Tehran University NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES IN THE ARABIANSEA Mohsen Soltanpour, K. N. Toosi University of Technology Zahra Ranji, K. N. Toosi University of Technology Tomoya Shibayama, Waseda University Sarmad Ghader, University of Tehran Shinsaku Nishizaki, Waseda University Study Area Motivation Numerical Simulation Conclusion 1/19 20 Cyclones and Depressions Study Area 15 Motivation 10 Numerical 5 Simulation Frequency of occurence (percent) ofoccurence Frequency 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Conclusion 30 Sever Cyclonic Storms 25 20 2/19 15 10 5 Frequency of occurence (percent) ofoccurence Frequency 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Target Study Area Motivation Gonu, 2007 Cyclones Ashobaa, 2015 Numerical Simulation Conclusion 3/19 Study Area Field Measurements (Gonu) Motivation Chabahar Bay Numerical Simulation Conclusion 4/19 Study Area Motivation Numerical More severe Simulation cyclonic storms since 2000 Conclusion 6/19 Time History of Maximum Wind Speed during Cyclone Modelling Study Area Atmosphere Framework Model (WRF) Motivation Numerical Simulation WAVE Model Current vector Ocean Circulation Conclusion (SWAN, SWAVE) Radiation Stress Model (FVCOM) Boundary Boundary condition condition 7/19 Global Global Wave Model Tide Model (WWIII) (TPXO 8) Study Area Motivation Numerical WRF domain Simulation Conclusion 8/19 FVCOM, SWAVE, SWAN domain WRF Model Study -
Enhancing Climate Resilience of India's Coastal Communities
Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Enhancing climate resilience of India’s coastal communities Feasibility Study February 2017 ENHANCING CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF INDIA’S COASTAL COMMUNITIES Table of contents Acronym and abbreviations list ................................................................................................................................ 1 Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................................. 6 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 13 2. Climate risk profile of India ....................................................................................................................... 14 2.1. Country background ............................................................................................................................. 14 2.2. Incomes and poverty ............................................................................................................................ 15 2.3. Climate of India .................................................................................................................................... 16 2.4. Water resources, forests, agriculture -
1 Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclones And
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES IN THE ARABIAN SEA Mohsen Soltanpour1, Zahra Ranji2, Tomoyo Shibayama3, Sarmad Ghader4, Shinsaku Nishizaki5 Winds, waves and storm surges of Gonu and Ashobaa, as two recent cyclones in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, are simulated by a system of WRF-FVCOM-SWAN. The employed models are separately calibrated using the available data. Surges are found to be highly dependent on coastal geometry and landfall location, rather than the storm intensity. Comparisons at different stations reveal that the results of models are in a good agreement with measured parameters. Negative surges are also observed in the enclosed basins of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. The calibrated atmosphere- wave-ocean model can be utilized for the prediction of extreme events, expected to increase in future due to the impact of the climate change. Keywords: Gulf of Oman; Arabian Sea; Tropical cyclones; Storm surge INTRODUCTION Storm surge is rising of the sea level over coastal regions due to the superposed actions of low pressure and the wind-induced surface shear stress. As the increase of temporary water level occurs at the same time of high wave action, it can result in disastrous flooding and coastal damages. Storm surges are more destructive if they coincide with high tides. However, the prevailing damage of cyclones at coasts are mainly located near the landfall, as the high winds/large waves are concentrated in the vicinity of the storm track. Rego and Li (2010b) demonstrated that the coastal surge of a hurricane depends to a large extent on the track of the storm. -
A Numerical Modelling Case Study of Cyclone Nilofar Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker
Water and Environment Journal. Print ISSN 1747-6585 Cyclone hazards in the Arabian sea–A numerical modelling case study of Cyclone Nilofar Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker Royal HaskoningDHV, Rightwell House, Bretton, Peterborough, PE3 8DW, UK Keywords Abstract numerical modelling; natural hazards; cyclone; extreme waves; storm surge; port develop- Cyclones cause significant loss of life and damage to properties, ecosystems and ment; Arabian Sea. marine facilities. To address such issues, Royal HaskoningDHV (RHDHV) has devel- oped regional tidal hydrodynamic and wave models covering the Northern Arabian Correspondence Sea. A total of 29 major cyclones were identified in the Arabian Sea since 1945. Dr Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker, However, as less information is available on Cyclone Nilofar (2014), this paper has Principal Engineer; research fields: numerical modelling of coastal processes including concentrated on this event to illustrate the use of numerical modelling to simulate waves, tides, sediment transport, cyclones, waves and surge generated by cyclones. Sample results from the modelling study tsunamis, sea ice and water quality (dredge are presented in this paper. The methodology described in this paper for modelling plume, outfall discharge and oil spills). cyclone waves and surges in the Arabian Sea could be applied to simulate such nat- Email: [email protected] ural hazards at other sites around the world. doi:10.1111/wej.12214 Introduction especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones with around Tropical cyclones are associated with high-pressure gra- 718,000 deaths from them in the past 50 years (Haque et al., dients and consequent strong winds and storm surges. Very 2012). The deadliest tropical cyclone was the 1970 Bhola strong winds may damage installations, dwellings, transpor- Cyclone, which had a death toll of anywhere from 300,000 to tation and communication systems, trees etc. -
Model for Simulating Typhoons
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2179–2187, 2014 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2179/2014/ doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2179-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. The efficiency of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulating typhoons T. Haghroosta1, W. R. Ismail2,3, P. Ghafarian4, and S. M. Barekati5 1Center for Marine and Coastal Studies (CEMACS), Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Minden, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia 2Section of Geography, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Minden, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia 3Centre for Global Sustainability Studies, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Minden, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia 4Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science, Tehran, Iran 5Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran Correspondence to: T. Haghroosta ([email protected]) Received: 18 December 2013 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 14 January 2014 Revised: – – Accepted: 29 July 2014 – Published: 26 August 2014 Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 1 Introduction model includes various configuration options related to physics parameters, which can affect the performance of the model. In this study, numerical experiments were con- Numerical weather forecasting models have several configu- ducted to determine the best combination of physics param- ration options relating to physical and dynamical parameter- eterization schemes for the simulation of sea surface tem- ization; the more complex the model, the greater variety of peratures, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, precipitation physical processes involved. For this reason, there are several rate, and wind speed that characterized typhoons. Through different physical and dynamical schemes which can be uti- these experiments, several physics parameterization options lized in simulations. -
Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over East Coast of India in the Global Warming Era
Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over East Coast of India in the Global Warming Era U. C. Mohanty School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Mesoscale modeling of TCs with MM5, ARW, NMM and HWRF systems • Conclusions and Future Directions Natural disasters Hydrometeorologi- Geophysical cal Disasters: Disasters: Earthquakes Cyclones Avalanches Flood Land slides Drought Volcanic eruption Tornadoes Dust storms Heat waves Cold waves Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Global warming Period Rate 25 0.1770.052 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 150 0.0450.012 Years /decade IPCC Introduction • Climate models are becoming most important tools for its increasing efficiency and reliability to capture past climate more realistically with time and capability to provide future climate projections. • Observations of land based weather stations in global network confirm that Earth surface air temperature has risen more than 0.7 ºC since the late 1800s to till date. This warming of average temperature around the globe has been especially sharp since 1970s. • The IPCC predicted that probable range of increasing temperature between 1.4 - 5.8 ºC over 1990 levels by the year 2100. Contd…… • The warming in the past century is mainly due to the increase of green house gases and most of the climate scientists have agreed with IPCC report that the Earth will warm along with increasing green house gases. • In warming environment, weather extremes such as heavy rainfall (flood), deficit rainfall (drought), heat/cold wave, storm etc will occur more frequent with higher intensity.