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Measurement of Total Ozone, D-UV Radiation, Sulphur Dioxide And MAUSAM, 72, 1 (January 2021), 35-56 551.515.2 : 551.509 (267) Evolution of IMD’s operational extended range forecast system of tropical cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean during 2010-2020 D. R. PATTANAIK and M. MOHAPATRA India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003, India e mail : [email protected] सार — मॉनसूनोर ऋतु (अटूबर-दसंबर; OND) को उर हंद महासागर (NIO) और वशेष प से बगं ाल क खाड़ (BoB) म अिधक तीता के उणकटबधं ीय चवात (TCs) क उप के िलए जाना जाता है। 2010 से 2020 के दौरान गितकय मॉडल पर आधारत चवातजनन क संभावना के चालनामक वतारत अविध पवू ान मु ान (ERF) वकिसत करने पर चचा क गई है। ECMWF तथा CFSv1 गितकय मॉडल पर आधारत चवातजनन क संभावना के चालनामक वतारत अविध पवू ान मु ान (ERF) का आरंभ वष 2010 म नवबं र के थम साह के दौरान बने चडं चवाती तूफान ‘जल’ के युसगं त िनपादन के साथ हुआ था। वष 2015 क सय अरब सागर और िनय बगं ाल क खाड़ सहत चवात ऋतु म भी भली भाँित वातवक समय ERF िनपादत कए गए थे। भारत मौसम वान वभाग ारा 2017 म चालनामक ERF के िलए CFSv2 युमत मॉडल लाग ू कया गया और इसके आधार पर चार साह के िलए गितकय परवत जसै े िमलता, अपसारता, ऊवाधर पवन अपपण तथा मय-तर सापेक आता के मायम से जने ेिसस पोटिशयल परै ामीटर (GPP) क गणना क जाती है तथा 24-30 नवबं र, 2017 के ‘ओखी’ चवात हेत ु इसका परण कया गया था। ‘ओखी’ चवात के मामले म केवल एक साह के लीड समय के साथ ERF म GPP का भली भािँ त पवू ान मु ान कया गया। उनत GPP (IGPP) का उपयोग वष 2019 से कया जा रहा है, जसे महासागर और भूिम दोन े म योग कया जा सकता है। IGPP के मामले म GPP क िमलता तथा मय ोभमंडलीय आता क श दावली को यथावत रखा गया है, परंतु तापगितक क श दावली को मापन तथा 1000 और 500 hPa के मय औसत समक वभव तापमान (θe) के प म संशोिधत कया गया। येक िड बदं ु के िलए 850 और 200 hPa के बीच ऊवाधर अपपण को 100 और 200 क.मी. के बीच एक कुंडलाकार े म मापन तथा औसत कया जाता है। महाचवात ‘अफन’ के मामले म इसके ारा थम तथा तीय साह के पवू ान मु ान म णाली क उप तथा ेत माग के अनसु ार ह इसके उर-पवू क ओर मुड़ने का सकं े त दया था। अरब सागर म चवात ‘िनसग’ तथा भारत के पमी तट क ओर इसके माग को 27 मई, 2020 क ारंिभक थित के आधार पर थम साह के पवू ान मु ान म अछ तरह से ेत कर िलया गया था। IGPP म तीन ती चवात जसै ,े 21-24 नवबं र के दौरान ‘गित’, 22-26 नवबं र के दौरान ‘िनवार’ तथा 30 नवबं र से 5 दसंबर के दौरान ‘बरु ेह’ और अटूबर 2020 के दो अवदाब क उप का पवू ान मु ान करने म ERF म तक सगं त कौशल देखन े को िमला। बगं ाल क खाड़ के उणकटबंधीय चवात क उप म मडै ेन जिू लयन ऑिसलेशन (MJO) क महवपणू भूिमका को देखते हुए भारत मौसम वान वभाग ारा MJO के वतमान तथा पवू ान मु ान, उणकटबधं ीय चवात उणता वभव आद जसै े अय मापदंड के साथ चालनामक IGPP का उपयोग कया जा रहा है तथा येक गुवार को दो साह के िलए चवातजनन संभायता आउटलुक जार कया जा रहा है। ABSTRACT. The post monsoon seasons (October-December; OND) are known to produce tropical cyclones (TCs) of severe intensity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and particularly over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The evolution of operational extended range forecast (ERF) of cyclogenesis probability during 2010 to 2020 based on dynamical models have been discussed. The ERF of cyclogenesis probability based on ECMWF and CFSv1 dynamical models had a modest beginning in 2010 with reasonable performance in case of severe cyclonic storm ‘Jal’ formed during the first week of November. The 2015 cyclone season with active Arabian Sea and inactive BoB was also very well captured in the real time ERF. IMD implemented CFSv2 coupled model for operational ERF in 2017 and based on it the Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) is calculated for four weeks by using the dynamical variables like vorticity, divergence, vertical wind shear & mid-level relative humidity and was tested for the ‘Ockhi’ cyclone of 24-30 November, 2017. The GPP in case of ‘Ockhi’ cyclone was well predicted in the ERF, however, with a lead time of only one week. (35) 36 MAUSAM, 72, 1 (January 2021) The Improved GPP (IGPP) is used since 2019, which can be applied both over the Ocean and the land region. In the case of IGPP the vorticity and middle tropospheric humidity terms of GPP have been retained but the thermodynamic term is modified as the scaled and averaged equivalent potential temperature (θe) between 1000 and 500 hPa. The vertical shear between 850 and 200 hPa is scaled and averaged over an annular region between 100 and 200 km radii for each grid point. In case of Super cyclone “Amphan” it indicated the genesis of the system in “Week 1” and “Week 2” forecast and also its re-curvature northeastward like the observed track. The cyclone “Nisarga” over the Arabian Sea and its track towards western coast of India was well captured in week 1 forecast based on Initial Condition of 27 May, 2020. The IGPP also showed reasonable skill in ERF in predicting the genesis of three intense cyclones viz., „Gati‟ during 21-24 November, „Nivar‟ during 22-26 November and „Burehi‟ during 30 November to 5 December and the two depressions of October, 2020. Considering the significant role of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in BoB TC genesis, IMD is making use of the operational IGPP along with other parameters like current and forecast MJO, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential etc and the value-added cyclogenesis probability outlook is being issued for two weeks on every Thursday. Key words – Tropical cyclone, Extended range forecast, Bay of Bengal, North Indian Ocean, Coupled model, Genesis potential probability. 1. Introduction during next 72 hrs In India, many studies have demonstrated the utility of TCs forecasts up to 3 days The extensive coastal belt of India covering more using Global and regional models (Sikka, 1975; Mohanty than 7000 km is very vulnerable to the cyclonic storms. and Gupta, 1997; Pattanaik and Rama Rao, 2009, etc.). Initially it forms over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) as There have been some earlier studies (Roy Bhowmik, low-pressure areas with maximum sustained surface wind 2003; Pattanaik et al., 2003) to define the Genesis of ≤ 17 kts and then intensify into depressions (maximum Parameter (GP) based on some dynamical variables, viz., sustained surface wind is between 17-33 kts) and low-level vorticity, low level divergence and vertical wind sometime become tropical cyclones (when the surface shear. Both the studies have indicated a clear-cut wind > 33 kts). For the tropical cyclones (TCs) only it has differentiation between developing (system intensified the bimodal peaks with one peak during pre-monsoon into a cyclone) and non-developing (dissipated prior to season from Mar-May and the other peak is during the cyclonic storm) over the Bay of Bengal in terms of post-monsoon season (October to December; OND) magnitude of the dynamical parameters. Roy Bhowmik (Pattanaik, 2005). The strong winds, heavy rains and (2003) observed that a low-pressure system with GP value storm surges due to TCs are the factors lead to loss of life around 20 10-12 at T. No. 1.5 has the potential to and property. The cyclonic storms over the Bay of Bengal intensify into a severe cyclonic storm. Subsequent study (BoB) after the landfall can cause severe damages to life by Kotal et al. (2009) used the genesis potential parameter and property over many countries of south Asia (GPP), which is defined as the product of four variables, surrounding the BoB. The highest population density with namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative low socio-economic conditions in combination with the humidity, middle tropospheric instability and the inverse shallow coastal plain over the south Asian countries in the of vertical wind shear and found that the composite GPP vicinity of the BoB has resulted in several land falling value is around three to five times greater for developing cyclones becoming devastating natural disasters. The systems than for non-developing systems. However, the strong winds, heavy rains and large storm surges associated forecasting of genesis of tropical cyclone and associated with tropical cyclones are the factors that eventually lead rainfall in the extended range time scale (about 2 weeks in to loss of life and property.
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