$XJXVW6HSWHPEHU

&29,' %XLOGLQJ 5HVLOLHQFH F4=/«OD/M97OS2=D/S7M/DSM/47E/9/_=F7JU2D=O;=F9;HUO7

([SRUW$GYLVRU\6HUYLFHV.32 2XWVRXUFHG3XEOLVKLQJ2QOLQH3XEOLVKLQJ &RQWHQW&UHDWLRQ,OOXVWUDWLRQV'3ULQWLQJ ''$QLPDWLRQ0RELOH$SSOLFDWLRQV 1HZ0HGLD+RXVH$NEDU9LOOD 0XOWLPHGLD6HUYLFHV(YHQWV« %56DNSDO0DUJ2II0DURO0DURVKL5RDG $QGKHUL ( 0XPEDL,QGLD "HAFHXEHM7/2HUSHUMO7MW=37OŽ7FLU=M]ÀF7XE74=/3HEE’2=_ 7HO)D[

)ROORZXVRQ 1HZPHGLDFRPP 1PHGLDFRPP 1HZ0HGLD&RPPXQLFDWLRQ3YW/WG )RXQGHU&KDLUPDQ +XPDQLWDULDQ /DWH6KUL5.3UDVDG

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

3HUVSHFWLYH 1HZ0HGLD&RPPXQLFDWLRQ3YW/WG 1HZ0HGLD+RXVH$NEDU9LOOD1HDU2OG6WDWH%DQN 5HVHWWLQJWKH3ODQHWDIWHU&29,' 0RUDO0DURVKL5RDG$QGKHUL ( 0XPEDL 7UHDWLQJRXU:DVWHZDWHU(IIHFWLYHO\ 7HO7HOHID[ YLD'767HFKQRORJ\ (PDLOHQTXLU\#QHZPHGLDFRPPEL]  ZZZQHZPHGLDFRPPFRP 3ULQWHG 3XEOLVKHGE\ 6DW\D6ZDURRSSXEOLVKHGIURP1HZ0HGLD+RXVH $NEDU9LOOD0DURO0DURVKL5RDG$QGKHUL (DVW  $OHUW 0XPEDL,QGLD

,QGLD0XVW$FW1RZWR$YHUW (GLWRU%.6LQKD &OLPDWH'LVDVWHU 7KHQHZVLWHPVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQSXEOLVKHGKHUHLQKDYH EHHQFROOHFWHGIURPYDULRXVVRXUFHVZKLFKDUH  FRQVLGHUHGWREHUHOLDEOH5HDGHUVDUHKRZHYHU UHTXHVWHGWRYHULI\WKHIDFWVEHIRUHPDNLQJEXVLQHVV GHFLVLRQVXVLQJWKHVDPH 3HUVSHFWLYH )UHTXHQW7UHPRUVLQDQG$URXQG  WKH1&5

 $XJ6HS_   & %*503*"-

'HDU5HDGHUV

*UHHWLQJV

/ƚ ŵĂŬĞƐ ƵƐ ŵŽƌĞ ƚŚĂŶ ŚĂƉƉLJ ƚŽ ǁŝƚŶĞƐƐ ƚŚĞ ƌĞͲůĂƵŶĐŚŝŶŐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ͞<ŶŽǁ ŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐ͟ŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞĂĨƚĞƌĂŐĂƉŽĨĂĨĞǁLJĞĂƌƐ͘ DŽƐƚŽĨƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚΖƐŶĂƚƵƌĂůĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐŽĐĐƵƌŝŶƐŝĂĂŶĚƚŚĞWĂĐŝĨŝĐ͘EĞĞĚůĞƐƐƚŽ ƐĂLJƚŚĂƚ/ŶĚŝĂŝƐŶŽƐƚƌĂŶŐĞƌƚŽĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐŝŶƚŚŝƐĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ͘dŚĞƐĞĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐŚĂǀĞ ĐĂƵƐĞĚĞŶŽƌŵŽƵƐĚĞƐƚƌƵĐƚŝŽŶĂŶĚŚƵŵĂŶƐƵĨĨĞƌŝŶŐƐŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ͘^ŝŶĐĞƚŚĞ ďĞŐŝŶŶŝŶŐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ LJĞĂƌ͕ ĂŵŝĚ ƚŚĞ Ks/Ͳϭϵ ƉĂŶĚĞŵŝĐ͕ ŽƵƌ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ŝƐ ĐŽŶƚŝŶƵŝŶŐ ƚŽ ďĞĂƌ ƚŚĞ ĚĞǀĂƐƚĂƚŝŶŐ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ ŽĨ ďĂĐŬͲƚŽͲďĂĐŬ ĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐ ůŝŬĞ LJĐůŽŶĞŵƉŚĂŶŝŶtĞƐƚĞŶŐĂůĂŶĚKĚŝƐŚĂ͕ƚŚĞǁŝůĚĨŝƌĞŝŶƚŚĞhƚƚƌĂŬŚĂŶĚ ĨŽƌĞƐƚ͕LJĐůŽŶŝĐ^ƚŽƌŵEŝƐĂƌŐĂŝŶDƵŵďĂŝ͕ĨůŽŽĚƐŝŶŝŚĂƌĂŶĚƐƐĂŵ͕ƚŚĞ sŝnjĂŐ'ĂƐ>ĞĂŬ͕ůŽĐƵƐƚĂƚƚĂĐŬŝŶŵƵůƚŝƉůĞ^ƚĂƚĞƐ͕ĞƚĐ͘ƐĂĐŽŶĐĞƌŶĞĚŵĞĚŝĂ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌ͕EĞǁDĞĚŝĂŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚŝŽŶŝƐƋƵŝƚĞĂŶdžŝŽƵƐĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƌŝƐŝŶŐ ŝŶĐŝĚĞŶĐĞĂŶĚŝŵƉĂĐƚŽĨŶĂƚƵƌĂůĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ͘ dŚĞƉƌŝŶĐŝƉĂůĨŽĐƵƐŽĨƚŚŝƐŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ͕Ks/ͲϭϵĂŶĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͕ ƵŶĚĞƌƐĐŽƌĞƐƚŚĂƚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌZŝƐŬZĞĚƵĐƚŝŽŶ;ZZͿŝƐǀĞƌLJ ŵƵĐŚĂŶŽŶŐŽŝŶŐ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞŵĞŶƚ͕ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƚŽ ŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚƐ͕ ĐŽŶĐĞƌŶĞĚ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ͕ ŵĞĚŝĂ ĂŶĚƉĞŽƉůĞĂůŝŬĞ͘dŚĞůĂƚĞƐƚ͕ƵŶƉƌĞĐĞĚĞŶƚĞĚŐůŽďĂůƉĂŶĚĞŵŝĐ͕Ks/Ͳϭϵ͕ŚĂƐ ƚĂƵŐŚƚƵƐĂŶŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůĞƐƐŽŶƚŚĂƚǁĞŶĞĞĚĞŶŚĂŶĐĞĚƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĚŶĞƐƐ͕ǁŚŝĐŚ ĐŽŶƐĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJ͕ůĂLJƐ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƵŶĚĂƚŝŽŶ ƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ ŵŝƚŝŐĂƚŝŶŐ ŝƚƐ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ͘ 'ŝǀĞŶ Ă ĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌŽĨƵŶƉƌĞĐĞĚĞŶƚĞĚƐĐĂůĞĂŶĚƚŚĞƌĞƐƉŽŶƐĞƐŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚŝŶƚŚĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ƐƚĂƚĞ ŽĨ ĂĨĨĂŝƌƐ͕ ŝƚ ŝŶĐŽŶƚƌŽǀĞƌƚŝďůLJ ĐĂůůƐ ĨŽƌ ĐĂƉƚƵƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞĞĚŝŶŐƐ ŽĨ Ks/ͲϭϵƌĞƐƉŽŶƐĞƐĂŶĚĚŝƐƐĞŵŝŶĂƚŝŶŐƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂŶĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞ ƉůĂƚĨŽƌŵůŝŬĞƚŚŝƐ͘ dŽďĞĞĨĨĞĐƚŝǀĞ͕<ŶŽǁŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐǁŽƵůĚĂĚǀŽĐĂƚĞĨŽƌŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚŝŶŐĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂƐĂĐŽŵƉƌĞŚĞŶƐŝǀĞĂŶĚĐŽŶƚŝŶƵŽƵƐĂĐƚŝǀŝƚLJ͕ŶŽƚĂƐĂƉĞƌŝŽĚŝĐ ƌĞĂĐƚŝŽŶƚŽŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌĐŝƌĐƵŵƐƚĂŶĐĞƐ͘/ƚǁŽƵůĚďƌŝŶŐŝƐƐƵĞƐƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐǁŚŽĂƌĞĐŚĂƌŐĞĚǁŝƚŚZZƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚŝĞƐŝŶĚĞĂůŝŶŐǁŝƚŚ Ă ǁŝĚĞ ƌĂŶŐĞ ŽĨ ƉŽůŝĐLJ͕ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ͕ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƚŝŽŶĂů͕ ŽƉĞƌĂƚŝŽŶĂů͕ ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŵĂƚƚĞƌƐ͘/ƚŝƐďĞŶĞĨŝĐŝĂůĨŽƌƚŚĞŵƚŽŚĂǀĞĂĐĐĞƐƐƚŽƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƚŝŽŶĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚ ůŝŬĞ ƚŚŝƐ ƚŽ ĚƌĂǁ ƵƉŽŶ ƚŚĞ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐ͕ ŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐ ĂŶĚ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ĚŝƐƐĞŵŝŶĂƚĞĚďLJƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƚŚĞƉĂŐĞƐŽĨƚŚŝƐŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ͘ /ŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůĂƌƚŝĐůĞƐŝŶƚŚŝƐŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞĂƌĞĂƐƐĞůĨͲĐŽŶƚĂŝŶĞĚĂƐƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ͕ǁŝƚŚ ĂĚĞƋƵĂƚĞ ĐƌŽƐƐͲƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞƐ ǁŚĞƌĞ ŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJ͘ /ƚƐ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚ ŝƐ ŶŽƚ ĚŽŐŵĂƚŝĐ͖ ŝŶƐƚĞĂĚ͕ŝƚƚĂŬĞƐĂƌĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚĞĚůŝŶĞ͕ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐŽƉƚŝŽŶƐĂŶĚĐĂƐĞŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů ƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞƐ ƚŽ ŚĞůƉ ĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƌĞƐŽůǀŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŝƌ ůŽĐĂů ŶĞĞĚƐ͘ dŚŝƐ ĐŽŶƚƌŝďƵƚĞƐƚŽƚŚĞĂƉƉůŝĐĂƚŝŽŶŽĨƉĂƐƚĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐĂĐĐƌƵĞĚǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ĂŶĚ͕ǁŚĞƌĞĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞ͕ĞůƐĞǁŚĞƌĞ͘ tĞĂƌĞƐƚƌŽŶŐ͘tĞĂƌĞƌĞƐŝůŝĞŶƚ͘dŽŐĞƚŚĞƌǁĞǁŝůůƌĞďƵŝůĚĂďĞƚƚĞƌĨƵƚƵƌĞǁŝƚŚ ŐƌĞĂƚĞƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚŝĞƐŝŶƚŚĞƉŽƐƚͲKs/ͲϭϵĞƌĂ

,Ă,ĂƉƉLJƌĞĂĚŝŶŐƉƉƉLJƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ͊

6DW\D6ZDURRS6 W 6 0DQDJLQJ(GLWRU VDW\D#QHZPHGLDFRPPEL]

 $XJ6HS_  & %*503*"-

'HDU5HDGHUV

*UHHWLQJV

/ƚŝƐĂŶŽǀĞƌǁŚĞůŵŝŶŐŵŽŵĞŶƚƚŽĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞŵLJƐĞůĨŝŶƚŚĞƌĞͲůĂƵŶĐŚŝŶŐŽĨƚŚĞ ͞<ŶŽǁŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐ͟ŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞǁŚŝĐŚŝƐĨŝŶĂůůLJƚĂŬŝŶŐŝƚƐƐŚĂƉĞŝŶŝƚƐƐĞĐŽŶĚƐƉĞůů͘ dŚĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĞĚŝƚŝŽŶƚŽƵĐŚĞƐƵƉŽŶĞdžĐůƵƐŝǀĞůLJŽŶKs/ͲϮϬϭϵĂŶĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌ DĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͕ĂŶƵŶƌĞůĞŶƚŝŶŐďƵƌŶŝŶŐƚŽƉŝĐƚŚĂƚŝƐŚƵŵĂŶŝƚLJΖƐďŝŐŐĞƐƚĐƌŝƐŝƐ ƐŝŶĐĞ tŽƌůĚ tĂƌ //͘ ůŵŽƐƚ ĞǀĞƌLJ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ŚĂƐ ďĞĞŶ ĂĨĨĞĐƚĞĚ ďLJ ƚŚĞ ĚĞǀĂƐƚĂƚŝŶŐŽƌŽŶĂǀŝƌƵƐĚŝƐĞĂƐĞ;Ks/ͲϮϬϭϵͿ͘dŚŝƐƉĂŶĚĞŵŝĐĐŽŶĨŽƌŵƐƚŽ ŬĞLJďĂƐĞůŝŶĞĐŽŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶƐǁŚŝĐŚŚĂǀĞĞŵĞƌŐĞĚĨƌŽŵĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌĂŶƚŚƌŽƉŽůŽŐLJ ŽǀĞƌƚŚĞƉĂƐƚĚĞĐĂĚĞƐ͘dŚĞhEZZƐĂLJƐ͕ĞǀĞŶďĞĨŽƌĞƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚďƌŝŶŐƐƚŚĞ Ks/ͲϮϬϭϵĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƵŶĚĞƌĐŽŶƚƌŽů͕ƚŚĞƌĞƐŚŽƵůĚďĞĚĞŵĂŶĚĨŽƌ͗͞EĞǀĞƌ ĂŐĂŝŶ͘͟ tĞ ĐĂŶ ŶĞǀĞƌ ŐŽ ďĂĐŬ ƚŽ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĂƐ ƵƐƵĂů͘ dŚĞ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌ ĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞƐƚŚĂƚĂƐƉĞƌhEZZ͕ǁŚŝĐŚŝƐŽƵƚůŝŶĞĚŝŶƚŚĞ'ůŽďĂůƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚ ŽŶZŝƐŬϮϬϭϵ͗ƌŝƐŬŝƐƐLJƐƚĞŵŝĐ͕ĂŶĚĐƌŝƐĞƐĂƌĞĐĂƐĐĂĚŝŶŐ͘ŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐĂƌĞƌĂƉŝĚůLJ ƉƌŽĚƵĐŝŶŐĨƵƌƚŚĞƌĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐƚŽďĞĐŽŵĞŵŽƌĞĐŽŵƉůĞdžĂŶĚĚĞĂĚůLJ͘ǀĞƌLJŽŶĞŝƐ ĂĨĨĞĐƚĞĚ͕ďƵƚŶŽƚĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞŝƐĂĨĨĞĐƚĞĚĞƋƵĂůůLJ͘ /ŶŝƚƐĨŝƌƐƚƉŚĂƐĞ͕ƚŚŝƐŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞǁĂƐĞĂƌůŝĞƌůĂƵŶĐŚĞĚŝŶDƵŵďĂŝďLJED ĚƵƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ϭƐƚ tŽƌůĚ ŽŶĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ŽŶ ŝƐĂƐƚĞƌ DĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ŝŶ ϮϬϬϱ͕ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞĚďLJ'&ZĂŶĚEĞǁDĞĚŝĂŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚŝŽŶWǀƚ͘>ƚĚ͘/ŶŶŽƚŝŵĞ͕ŝƚ ďĞĐĂŵĞƚŚĞĨŝƌƐƚŽĨŝƚƐŬŝŶĚŝŶ/ŶĚŝĂ͕ƚŚĂŶŬƐƚŽƚŚĞƉŽƉƵůĂƌŝƚLJŝƚŐĂŝŶĞĚĂƐĂ ũŽƵƌŶĂůƚŚĂƚĞŶƚŝƌĞůLJĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͘/ƚĂŬĞƚŚŝƐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ƚŽƵŶĚĞƌůŝŶĞƚŚŝƐĨĂĐƚƚŚĂƚĚƵƌŝŶŐŵLJƉĂƐƚƌŽůĞĂƐsŝĐĞŚĂŝƌŵĂŶŽĨŝŚĂƌ^ƚĂƚĞ ŝƐĂƐƚĞƌDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚƵƚŚŽƌŝƚLJ͕ĂŶĚƐƵďƐĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJ͕ĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƚŝŶŐǁŝƚŚEĞǁ DĞĚŝĂŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚŝŽŶWǀƚ͘>ƚĚ͘ĂƐĂŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚŝŽŶWĂƌƚŶĞƌ͕ǁĞŵĞƚƚŚĞ ĐƌƵĐŝĂůĚĞŵĂŶĚŽĨƚŚĞĂƵƚŚŽƌŝƚLJĂƚƚŚĞŚŝŐŚĞƐƚůĞǀĞůŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨĞŶůŝŐŚƚĞŶŝŶŐ ĂŶĚĞĚƵĐĂƚŝŶŐĂůůƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐŝŶĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͘ ƐŝƚƐ,ŽŶŽƌĂƌLJĚŝƚŽƌͲŝŶͲŚŝĞĨ͕/ǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞƚŽĞŵƉŚĂƐŝnjĞƚŚĂƚƵŶĚĞƌƚŚĞĂĞŐŝƐ ŽĨ ƚŚŝƐ ŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ͕ ǁĞ ǁŝůů ĞŶĂďůĞ ƚŚĞ ĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌ ƌŝƐŬ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ƚŽ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞ͕ůĞĂƌŶ͕ĚŝƐƐĞŵŝŶĂƚĞĂŶĚƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞƚŚĞĐĂƉĂĐŝƚŝĞƐĨŽƌ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞĚĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƌŝƐŬĂŶĚƌĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞŝĚĞŶƚŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶĂƚĂůůůĞǀĞůƐ͘tĞĂƐƐƵƌĞ LJŽƵƚŚĂƚEĞǁDĞĚŝĂŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚŝŽŶŚĂƐĂďŝŐƉŽƚĞŶƚŝĂůƚŽďƌŝĚŐĞƚŚĞĐƌŝƚŝĐĂů ŐĂƉ ƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ƚŽ ŵĞĞƚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƵŶĚĞƌůLJŝŶŐ ŶĞĞĚ ŽĨ Ă ĚĞĚŝĐĂƚĞĚ ũŽƵƌŶĂů ƚŚĂƚ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐĂƌĂŶŐĞŽĨŝƐƐƵĞƐƉĞƌƚĂŝŶŝŶŐƚŽĚŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƐ͘tĞŚŽƉĞƚŚĞƐĞĐŽŶĚ ůĂƵŶĐŚŝŶŐĞǀĞŶƚŽĨƚŚŝƐŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞǁŽƵůĚĐŽŶƚŝŶƵĞƚŽĂƚƚƌĂĐƚƚŚĞƌĞĂĚĞƌƐĂƐŝƚ ĚŝĚƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJĂŶĚĐŽŶƚŝŶƵĞƚŽǁŝŶĂĐĐŽůĂĚĞƐǁŝƚŚŝƚƐǁŝĚĞƌƌĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ͘ ,ĂƉƉLJƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ͊

Ŷŝů<͘^ŝŶŚĂ/^;ƌƚĚ͘Ϳ ,ŽŶLJ͘ĚŝƚŽƌͲŝŶͲŚŝĞĨ //DK&ĞůůŽǁͲWŽůŝĐLJĚǀŝƐŽƌ͕ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƚŝŽŶĂůĞŶƚƌĞĨŽƌ/ŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞĚ DŽƵŶƚĂŝŶĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ;//DKͿ ^ƌ͘ĚǀŝƐŽƌ͕ĞŶƚƌĞĨŽƌŝƐĂƐƚĞƌDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͕ >^EĂƚŝŽŶĂůĐĂĚĞŵLJŽĨĚŵŝŶŝƐƚƌĂƚŝŽŶ͕ DƵƐƐŽŽƌŝĞ&ŽƵŶĚĞƌsŝĐĞŚĂŝƌŵĂŶ͕ ŝŚĂƌ^ƚĂƚĞŝƐĂƐƚĞƌDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚƵƚŚŽƌŝƚLJ;^DͿ͕WĂƚŶĂ &ŽƵŶĚĞƌͲdžĞĐƵƚŝǀĞŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ͕ EĂƚŝŽŶĂů/ŶƐƚŝƚƵƚĞŽĨŝƐĂƐƚĞƌDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͕ 'Žǀƚ͘ŽĨ/ŶĚŝĂ͕EĞǁĞůŚŝ &ŽƵŶĚĞƌͲWƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĞĚǀŝƐŽƌ͕ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƚŝŽŶĂůZĞĐŽǀĞƌLJWůĂƚĨŽƌŵͬhEW͕<ŽďĞ͕:ĂƉĂŶ

 $XJ6HS_   & %*503*"-

'HDU5HDGHUV

*UHHWLQJV

,WJLYHVPHLPPHQVHSOHDVXUHWREHDSDUWRIWKHUHODXQFKRIWKLV PDJD]LQH´.QRZ'LVDVWHUVµ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²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

:LVKLQJ\RXDKDSS\UHDGLQJ

$VLI6KDKDE ([HFXWLYH(GLWRU

 $XJ6HS_  Humanitarian Oxfam India’s Compassionate Response to Survivors Left Devastated by Cyclone Amphan

Laressa A. Gomez, Programme Coordinator - Humanitarian Communications, National Humanitarian Hub, Oxfam India

The vulnerable communities of the Sundarbans affected by Cyclone Amphan narrated their tale of the extraordinary scale of disaster which has deeply impacted their lives and livelihood. Their unmet needs to lessen the impact of the cyclone were urgently required. Thanks to the presence of Oxfam India, their sufferings were further alleviated with appropriate timely relief materials provided to them.

Aug-Sep | 2020 07 Humanitarian

08 Aug-Sep | 2020 News & Trends

Global Disaster News and Trends Global Economy Absorbs $75 Billion Natural Disaster Loss in First Half of 2020 Global natural disaster events during 1H 2020 caused total economic losses estimated at $75 billion – 23 per cent lower than the 2000-2019 average of USD98 billion, says Aon’s Global Catastrophe Recap: First Half of 2020 report. Meanwhile, insured losses were estimated at $30 billion – eight per cent higher than the 20- year average of $28 billion. Natural disasters were responsible for approximately 2,200 fatalities (1980-2019) average of 39,800 during the period, having been natural disaster events recorded by and the median of 7,700. Flooding responsible for 60 per cent of the Impact Forecasting for 1H 2020 was was the deadliest natural peril death toll. The total of 207 global above the 20-year average of 184 and the median of 189. There were at least 20 separate billion-dollar half of the year – led by the United ^ ^ three events and the Americas with two events. Cyclone Amphan, which killed 133 people in India in May, was the costliest economic event of 1H 2020, causing an estimated USD15 billion in direct damage loss. A severe weather event in the United States from April 10-14, which killed 38 people, was the costliest insured event, with claims totalling _` months of the year were marked by many smaller and medium-scale disasters, which impacted a large number of communities globally. From a peril perspective, there were an unusually low number of half of 2020.

Aug-SepAug-Sep | 202| 20200 0 9 News & Trends

National Trends and News FLOODS Alarming Figures Reminds us how Devastating Floods in India are • Floods are the most devastating among climate-related disasters in India, as per the estimation of The Asian Development Bank. They comprise more than 50 per cent of all climate-related disasters in India. The trend of erratic monsoon pattern and extreme rainfall has just supplemented to this. • As per a study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank, ‘Impacts CWC data, in August, various rivers The varieties called Ranjit Sub-1, of Natural Disasters on Households at 25 stations crossed their highest Swarna Sub-1 and Bahadur Sub-1 and Small Businesses in India’, have been used by about 60 per cent # ` farmers of the West Brahmaputra vulnerable people, and are further 19 extreme weather events in 2019 of Assam have been harvesting compounded by infrastructure took the death toll to 1,357 lives; with the water-resistant Swarna Sub-1, expansion, rapid urbanization, and developed by the Indian Council huge numbers of people residing 63 per cent of these lives. The most of Agricultural Research and the in informal settlements in poor death was reported in Bihar, with Manila-based International Rice conditions. Research Institute, since 2009. But the switchover from traditional • There was not a single year when and heavy rain (306), thunderstorms varieties of paddy has been slow. The (71) and heatwave (292) between major losses to lives, livelihoods and May and October in 2019. Ranjit Sub-1 were reintroduced in property. According to an analysis Meanwhile, in the face of the 2018. `` Central Water Commission (CWC), The new data showed that in the last 65 years rice varieties can resist submergence | Recently, farmers from Golaghat people. Over 81,187,187 houses district in Assam have cultivated new do not get damaged by the heavy were destroyed, and 258 million hectares of crops were damaged. shift from the traditional ones. The total economic losses amounted to Rs 4.69 trillion owing to house, R crop, and other property damages. varieties such as Ranjit Sub-1, (sub in short) gene, the varieties can # Bahadur Sub-1, Kanaklata, Jal an average. been greater than before, researchers Kuwori and Jalshree, which can projected in a study published in Some journal Nature Communications weeks. The new variety sown last year 1,500 farmers cultivate on about in October 2019. Some 36 million has inspired a majority of cultivators 950 hectares in crop-yielding people in India were under menace, in Golaghat district to shift over from areas which have been impacted which was six times more than the traditional ones. According to the earlier estimates. Assam State Disaster Management caused crop loss substantially. These # 22 has affected crop, mainly paddy, varieties can get regenerated again contributed by extreme precipitation on more than 125,097 hectares in case they are damaged by the also. Indian rivers reported high of land across 25 of the State’s ^ 33 districts. productivity. last year in August. According to

10 Aug-Sep | 2020 News & Trends

"#!$%&"' Google’s Ambitious New Plan to Detect Earthquakes Early

At a time when India is experiencing is broadly applicable.” According disturbances enables us to detect small-medium intensity tremors „ seismic activity,” Google said. connect different continents to the „ of the internet’s international ! come up with a solution. „ discovered network of undersea cables makes The company will use subsea Previously unknown faults at the it possible to share, search, send, foot of the Himalayan Mountain and receive information around same. These cables are capable the world at the speed of light,” it in a densely populated region, added. tsunamis early and can be says two University of Alberta deployed as a warning system. These cables are made of optic system in southeastern Nepal has movement in a distance of up to the form of a light pulse travelling 100 kilometres. The tech giant has at 204,190 kilometres per second. in a densely populated area, The receiving end detects these according to two University of cover a vast area. Google said that light pulses and a digital signal Alberta scientists who were part of processor is used to correct an international team that made distortions. When tracked as a part the discovery. The team looked at Company said in a blog post: of optical transmission, the light is in a State of Polarization (SOP). routinely collected by exploration “The SOP changes in response to companies looking for oil and the vast majority of the world’s mechanical disturbances along gas. In this method, seismic waves the cable and tracking these are produced by small explosions

Aug-Sep | 2020 11 News & Trends

at multiple sources, and many operating system. Android users, help people stay updated with the recorders called geophones to who have enabled location services latest information around disaster record the sound echoing off layers relief and preparedness efforts. beneath the surface. 4.5 or greater, will receive a full- certain keywords associated with The signals are combined to make disaster relief, a prompt will direct an image that looks like a slice cover. The screen also will provide them to the relevant information showing layers through the top few and sources of help available on kilometres of the earth’s crust. The and distance from the user. The Twitter. This is an expansion of researchers were able to identify alert is based on the projected Twitter’s #ThereIsHelp prompt, the faults because the pattern of shaking at a particular location layers showed bends. This network and a certain level of intensity. of faults shows that the Himalayan Depending on their distance from information focusing on disaster deformation reaches further [about preparedness and emergencies. 40 kilometres further south] than seconds or perhaps a minute we previously thought. The search prompt will be available of warning. The warnings are on iOS, Android, and on mobile. powered by California’s Shake "( Alert system, which uses signals and Hindi languages. The feature from more than 700 seismometers will be reviewed at regular intervals installed around the State that can by the Twitter team to ensure that Android phones will be used to sense seismic waves. all related keywords generate the proactive search prompt. world, and may one day, be # ) The dedicated search prompt able to provide global warnings; will ensure there is uninterrupted * access to relevant and authoritative being unveiled in California as information, such as important announced by Google. Google, Twitter has announced a partnership updates on critical transit and which helped develop Android, with the National Disaster utility outages, efforts to oversee worked with California and the Response Force (NDRF) in India to crowd management and establish U.S. Geological Survey to build expand its efforts towards handling direct access between the affected disaster situations, with the launch areas and the rescue teams. that run the commonplace mobile of a dedicated search prompt to

12 Aug-Sep | 2020 News & Trends

COVID-2019 and Disaster Management Latest Global/National News, Trends, Learnings and Opportunities

%+ Adaptation (GCA) has released 2020, and calls on governments -/0 a call to action to bring about a and donors to direct recovery aid to climate-resilient recovery from the world’s most vulnerable. the COVID-19 global pandemic, The Commission calls on world The coronavirus pandemic could which urges governments to leaders to respond to the pandemic push up to 132 million people leverage COVID-19-related by accelerating progress in seven into hunger by the end of 2020, stimulus packages to invest in areas, and articulates opportunities according to a new report from climate resilience. the United Nations. ”As progress to do so, which, it states, “align The Commission recommends that with and support internationally governments and organizations COVID-19 pandemic is intensifying agreed frameworks” such as the integrate climate resilience into all 2030 Agenda for Sustainable decisions and invest in innovative _ Development, the Paris Agreement solutions to address both the said in a statement. “While it is too on Climate Change, and the pandemic and the climate crisis. early to assess the full impact of the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk The Commission emphasizes that lockdowns and other containment Reduction (DRR), “while prioritizing adaptation investments deliver measures, at least another 83 higher returns while pre-empting million people, and possibly as The seven areas are locally-led the destructive impact of future many as 132 million, may go adaptation; urban resilience; water shocks. The Call to Action laments hungry in 2020,” the agency resources management; shock- that most countries have not responsive social safety nets; food incorporated climate resilience into in the latest version of The State security; nature-based solutions; the USD 10 trillion of public funds of Food Security and Nutrition in and disaster prevention. thus far invested in pandemic crisis the World, published annually by % # 6%#7 2\ relief, and warns that resulting debt U.N. agencies, including the World 09-: *' may restrict governments’ ability to Health Organization. 4; 099< address future climate resilience needs. The Commission also warns 1 Rajasthan 123*4-5%+ that the pandemic has the potential to drive 100 million more people The Global Commission on into extreme poverty by the end of

Aug-Sep | 2020 13 News & Trends

pandemic. Given that most of them were from engineering stream, analysis, management of camps tracing, logistics and interstate coordination for migrant labours. Certain disasters need an instant response. They learnt how to design relief camps, maintain high standards of sanitation and ensure no biasness happens. This once-in- a-lifetime experience allowed them 123*4-5 to carbon emissions, which rose Disaster Management Act, and by 5 per cent following the global other government directives so that A lot of dark sides have been created preventive actions are invoked. ago. by the coronavirus pandemic. Many % # 2 the world, people getting ill and levels was measured across India 123*4-5 die, the overloaded healthcare following the lockdown where To deal with the spread of the novel system, schools being shut down, cities like Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkata coronavirus disease (COVID-19), employees losing their jobs, and Lucknow experienced their Odisha’s two-pronged approach companies facing bankruptcy, stock average Air Quality Index (AQI) was in disaster management has come markets collapsing and countries restricted to two digits. having to spend billions on bailouts in handy. This entails ‘physical • Another example of cleaner air and medical aid. No matter how infrastructure’ created to help was observed when, on April 3, people during disasters, and serious and sad all of this is, there are upsides as well. We have to 2020, residents of Jalandhar, a city ‘intellectual infrastructure’ referring in Punjab, woke up to a view of the to the government’s institutional decide for ourselves whether this Dhauladhar Mountain Range, a setups to tackle disasters speedily pandemic is an unmitigated disaster rare feat in normal times, given the or whether we can make the best use of the opportunities that will distance between the two places - come in its wake. lying nearly 213 kilometres apart tuning Standard Operating from each other, and has not Procedures (SOPs) for cyclone "" been visible from the city in recent • The pandemic has attributed memory. dual challenges of climate-related a global decline in economic • Water bodies have also been disasters and COVID-19. From activity and even though this is observed to be cleaner, and the Odisha’s prior experience, they foremost grounds for concern, rivers Yamuna and Ganga have seen the plummeting rate of human considerable improvement ever buildings like schools, cyclone activity has had a positive impact since the nationwide lockdown was on the environment. There is a put into effect. The average water and how to manage a disaster, clear reduction in industrial and besides knowledge of the obstacles ’ „ seen in recent days is appropriate that come in between. They used many of these centres either as for bathing and propagation of the clearing of pollutants in the soil atmosphere and water. As a real-time water monitoring data of to host stranded migrant workers result of stimulus spending on fossil the Central Pollution Control Board and the needy to serve them food fuel used to kick start the global (CPCB). and provide shelter during the economy, this effect is also contrary lockdown.

14 Aug-Sep | 2020 News & Trends

123*4-5 as much of or, perhaps, curtailment The novel coronavirus disease on food wastes as we come (COVID-19) has had a positive across shortening resulting from impact on carbon emissions due to stockpiling. The coronavirus could have a reduction in energy demand. 2020 longer-term impact on sustainability, 1 has seen the largest ever annual though there are further, fewer decline in energy-related carbon- One response to the coronavirus straight ways as well. One is evading dioxide emissions. COVID-19 outbreak that has attracted varied the climate crisis eliminating from disruptions caused shocks to the reactions from climate scientists is people’s minds, as the more critical power and oil sector that will lead the means that several communities concern of instantly saving lives have taken considerable measures takes the priority. Another one is emissions. However, the long- to safeguard each other from the relatively merely making dialogue term implications of this are still health impact. The pace and degree around climate extra complicated uncertain. India’s CO2 emissions as mass events are deferred. Greta Thunberg has advocated for digital over 40 years. The fall in emissions also be taken on climate change activism to replace physical protests is a result of economic slowdown if the risk it creates was dealt as due to the coronavirus outbreak, immediately. In the longer term, and growth in the renewable energy whereas the major climate event of community action has ignited hope sector. Coal and oil consumption the year, COP26, is presently still for the climate. The time afforded planned to be held in November. by self-isolation as an excellent called for a post-COVID-19 ‘green COP26 is expected to draw 30,000 opportunity for the community to recovery’, with environmentally delegates from around the world. estimate their consumption. friendly initiatives at the heart of any Ahead of the current pandemic, stimulus package. there may be a different way that the Plants are growing better thanks behavioural changes emerging out It is right to say that nobody would to the unfolding of cleaner air and around the world could carry over. have wished for emissions to be water, and as a result of yet again, reduced this way. COVID-19 has From social science research that there is no human interference. interventions are more successful unleashed a severe global toll on With everything at a standstill, if they take place during moments lives, health services livelihood and plants are allowed to thrive and of change. So times of change can mental health. However, if anything, grow and produce more coverage pave the way in the introduction of it has also revealed the diversity that and oxygen. Less litter also means long-lasting habits. At the time of the communities can make when they lesser clogging of river systems, coronavirus outbreak, those gained N that’s one lesson that could be very which is good in the long run for the climate might be travelling not useful in tackling climate change. the environment.

Aug-Sep | 2020 15 News & Trends

Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to reduce by 8 per cent in 2020, compared to 2019 as a result of the pandemic. The momentary declinations in both carbon emissions and energy demand have contributed to the environment some breathing space. Nonetheless, the return in emissions may be bigger than the reduction, unless economic incentives and investments to resume economies are attuned to encourage cleaner worth 10 per cent of GDP has could have saved nearly Rs 6.76 and more resilient energy been announced by the Central lakh crore if such systems were in infrastructure. „ place, the report projected. The report suggested a share of capital challenges around how to deal with along with the National Institute of be used for disaster risk reduction the shock linked to COVID-19, Public Policy and Finance (NIPFP), by designing a “Climate Risk Atlas”, governments should not trade-off has presented a report on how an emergency surveillance system long term global objectives around parts of this package could be used. and a response network. decarbonisation, coping with The promising sectors with higher 1 123*4-5 climate change and sustainable prospects in the post-COVID-19 consumption. Post-COVID recovery period will be distributed hybrid '4=+ should lead to a “new normal” that is energy, renewable energy, city gas distribution, emergency and disaster Niti Ayog is deeply devoted to There are numerous opportunities management systems, and urban bolstering current efforts and set for an environmentally sustainable transportation, as per the authors. out on newer initiatives to speed recovery. The tax reform element For instance, building a low- up progress on the SDG targets for of stimulus packages can also be emission air conditioner servicing long term transformation. In this used to exploit these opportunities sector could generate more than two attempt, knowledge sharing and million jobs by 2037. Thousands of peer learning and will play a crucial trim down carbon emissions taking jobs can be created by widening role - which we are actively fostering into account the greater than before investment in distributed renewable among States and Union Territories. cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy. Around 110,000 skilled The Niti Ayog is aiming to wipe out technologies like renewable energy, and unskilled jobs can be formed all differences and dissimilarity in comparison to conventional by 20 GW of small-and large- amongst us and team up to strive energy sources. In conclusion, scale micro-grids. About 50,000 and transform the existing situation though there has been a positive potential skilled and unskilled jobs into an opportunity for picking up the impact on the environment due to can be generated for each 4 GW pace our progress towards attaining the lockdown, there is an implicit of rooftop solar power as per the the SDG targets. The endeavour to fear that once people start making estimation of the report. turn COVID-19 into opportunity movement again or resuming what came in the light of India’s VNR they were discharging previously, Return on investment in emergency 2020 report titled ‘Decade of all such valuable positive gains preparedness reveals that every Rs Action: Taking SDGs from Global retrieved due to COVID-19 will be 75.35 invested for preparedness to Local’, which is a comprehensive lost over time. saves more than Rs 150.70 in future description of the adoption and responses as per the UN’s Inter- execution of the 2030 Agenda 123*4-5 Agency Standing Committee’s (UN- in India. The report discusses in IASC) report. India has exhausted detail the policy and enabling nearly Rs 13.52 lakh crore on environment, India’s approach to disaster management in the past localising SDGs, and strengthening A special economic package 20 years, and the Government means of implementation.

16 Aug-Sep | 2020 News & Trends

Major Disasters in India

Massive Floods in Bihar The death toll due to the Bihar ’| people were affected across 16 districts on as on August 13, 2020. Bihar is experiencing the calamity after the torrential rains coupled with record discharge of barrage water into the northern Bihar rivers COVID-19 pandemic. However, with the constraints of the spread State at the time of a pandemic 1 _ has come as a twin challenge. All the most catastrophic destruction. In District Magistrates across Bihar Cyclone Amphan came barreling the neighbouring State of Odisha, were directed by the Disaster down from the Bay of Bengal and four people died across the ten- Management Department to make became the deadliest cyclones in the region in a century, leaving nearly 90 people dead and more than 10 million homeless. Amphan originated as a low-pressure area around 300km east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Moving northeastward, the cyclone left its trail in Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and Bhutan. West Bengal, the epicentre of the cyclone’s landfall, suffered the worst damage. While a detailed report on the total damage made by Amphan is yet to be published, an initial investigation estimates affected districts. 4.4 million people necessary arrangements for masks nearly $13 billion in damages to were impacted in some way by the and sanitizers at relief camps along the state. Amphan affected nearly cyclone. At least 500 homes were with social distancing. 70 per cent of the people in West destroyed and a further 15,000 4> Bengal, but the Sundarbans, a were damaged. feature with low or higher intensity. This year the State became more vulnerable amid the overlapping menace of COVID-19 pandemic. As on August 13, 2020, in Assam, 30 districts have been affected and 158 people have lost their lives due damage to physical infrastructure like roads, bridges and culverts, inundated vast areas of agricultural lands and drowned several animals.

Aug-Sep | 2020 17 News & Trends

1& ' in Kerala after skidding off the runway and breaking into two while landing at Kozhikode Calicut International Airport on August 7, 2020. At least 18 people died in the crash, including both pilots, with up to 30 others received treatment for serious injuries. The ?;' Maharashtra on India’s western who came forward for search and * coasts. It was formed on 1 June rescue. The injured were rushed 2020 and disappeared on 4 June While the overall impact of the too far away from towns of Manjeri, 2020. The eye of the storm narrowly infestation is not yet known, Malappuram and Kozhikode with missed Mumbai, India’s most authorities estimate the insects airport authorities and support populous city of 20 million, which engulfed more than 50,000 staff leading the way. Local young is already struggling with some of hectares (123,5000 acres) of men with cars and vans swung into the highest numbers of coronavirus agricultural land in seven of India’s action to supplement the modest cases in the region. Nearby districts heartland States. It was a very institutional resources, triaging experienced more serious damages badly-timed “serious infestation” decisions were taken on the spot, with six deaths, over a dozen injuries, that led to serious crop losses. and thousands were relocated. and the seriously injured were sent >>% directly in the direction of better ?& Uttarakhand forest was devastated precautions against the prevailing A massive landslide triggered by the estimated to have consumed 51.34 monsoon rainfall occurred in a tea up outside facilities for donating hectares of forest cover so far. It plantation in Idduki District of Kerala blood. was also reported that the Kumaon on August 8, 2020, leading to an region was among the worst- increasing number of fatalities. The 3@=?4 hit area with almost two dozen toll in the landslip at Pettimudi in Kerala’s Idukki rose to 49 with six The Visakhapatnam Gas Leak, more bodies recovered from under also referred to as the Vizag 1 + the debris and 22 people were Gas Leak, was an industrial Maharastra still missing in the August 7, 2020 accident that occurred at the LG A severe cyclone, Nisarga, struck tragedy. Polymers chemical plant in the R. R. Venkatapuram village of the Gopalapatnam neighbourhood, located at the outskirts of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India, during the early morning of May 7, 2020. The resulting vapour cloud spread over a radius of around 3km (1.86 mi), affecting the nearby areas and villages. As per the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), the death toll was 11, and more than 1,000 people became sick after being exposed to the gas.

18 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

COVID-19: A Systemic Risk Requiring System-Based Approach to Manage Dr. Satendra, IFS International Expert - Disaster Risk Reduction in FAO, UN, Senior Adviser - Bihar State Disaster Management Authority, Former Executive Director of National Institute of Disaster Management, Govt. of India, Former Director - SAARC Disaster Management Centre, and Former Special Secretary, Disaster Management Department, Government of Bihar

COVID-19 pandemic’s overall virus’s overall behaviour including nature, non-linear development, behaviour, including origin, origin, spread, and impact, we can marked with tipping points, long- spread, and impact has say that the risks posed by the virus lasting and stochastic nature, turned it into a systemic risk, have turned into systemic risks, i.e. COVID-19 risk management i.e. a risk which not only leads risks which not only lead to negative has become a challenge and to negative effects in parts effects in parts of the system but a needs a system-based approach, of the system but a failure failure of the system as a whole. incorporating all four priorities of of the system as a whole. The pandemic is having all the action of the Sendai Framework Considering the complexity, characteristics of systemic risks, i.e. for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR: 2015-2030) i.e., understanding global nature, non-linear (i). It is highly complex, having disaster risk, strengthening disaster development, marked sub-components tightly risk governance, investing in with tipping points, long- coupled with each other, and disaster risk reduction for resilience, lasting, stochastic nature; the also with traditional risks COVID-19 risk management and enhance disaster preparedness has become a challenge (ii). It is global in nature with no for effective response and and needs a system-based geographical boundaries reconstruction in a comprehensive manner, including a “build back approach, incorporating all (iii). It has a stochastic relationship better” approach. four priorities of action of between trigger and effects, SFDRR (2015-30) i.e. having uncertainty and randomness in the outcomes Understanding the Risk (iv). It has tipping points, indicating Risk in the present scenario is COVID-19: A Systemic not simple, like with common Risk the drastic change in nature and extent • In late December 2019, COVID-19 or earthquake, where risk is well- (v). Is unpredictable and emerged in the form of a global underestimated in general crisis which originated in Wuhan, assess. But in the present pandemic China, subsequently killing (vi). It is never going to be case, the risk is not possible to thousands of people in different eliminated completely evaluate by simple traditional parts of the world. Now, when methods. Instead, it needs a The present COVID-19 pandemic scenario building and modelling the number of infections in many having all these characteristics countries is increasing at an approach; making use of various may be safely termed as systemic hypothetical imaginations and alarming rate, the crisis has turned risk, which needs a system-based into a catastrophe. In many cases, possibilities of occurrences. In the approach to mitigate and manage case of COVID-19, the risks are this has overwhelmed the national capacities to manage it effectively multifarious, affecting almost all sectors, starting from livelihood thus posing severe threats to the System-Based Approach entire system, including societal to food security, production (both to Manage COVID-19 industry and agriculture), education, and economic systems. Risk culture, health, communication, and so on. The trans-boundary nature While critically analyzing the Corona Considering the complexity, global of such risks requires international

Aug-Sep | 2020 19 Perspective

cooperation and support, thus and control the spread. The most sensitive issue with such systemic risks is the stochastic relationships between trigger and effect (identical causes leading to diverse results), which pose a major challenge before the governance to identify and assess its impact. The tipping point or the threshold stage i.e., the stage when risk drastically changes its condition of existence is another characteristic of such risks; making it time. The systemic risks, in general, are underestimated and thus do not alert the governance in advance to make effective preparations to reduce and mitigate its impacts. In many cases, the systemic risks are not completely rooted out from the Figure 1 Pandemic management strategy: four priorities for action. system and thus regularly pose a threat to the system; forcing society to live with it while simultaneously SFDRR: “Understanding Disaster or indirectly. This is also of utmost and continuously changing its Risk” clearly shows that in case of importance because understanding shape, form, and also the capacity systemic risks like COVID-19, the all aspects of disaster risks serves to damage (Figure-2). exercise, though much complex, as the foundation for the whole needs to be done very precisely, risk reduction and management This brief discussion regarding taking into consideration each framework, thus deciding the the priority area of action under aspect which may affect risk directly success or failure of the whole exercise.

Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance While considering the complex nature of risks of COVID-19, the governance needs to be strengthened to understand and work on three basic questions related to disaster risk assessment and risk reduction. One, what can go wrong? Two, what is the likelihood, and what are the consequences (Kaplan and Garrick - 1981) while looking for their answers for managing the assessed risks (Haimes 1991) such as, what can be done, and what are the options available, what are the trade-offs in terms of all relevant — and the most important is what will Figure 2: Hexagonal Characteristics of COVID-19, a Systemic Risk be the impacts of current decisions

20 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

on future options? The governance addition to these two Acts, some so on. In the case of this present must be capable to deal with State Governments also made use pandemic catastrophe, there is a all the questions and also the of several public health-related need to learn from past experiences answers, along with the allocation laws passed by the Parliament to and also from well-tested practices of responsibilities of functionaries manage situations and different in some parts of the country and to work on these question-answer issues that emerged during the also the world over. series. lockdown and also handling safety Lack of proper communication and security of health workers. While analyzing the pandemic among different stakeholders and risk governance, the condition of However, this use of different role players during COVID-19 relevant laws, regulations, and rules and regulations by different management has been another policy is found to be very poor. stakeholders at various levels problem, especially in the case There is only one 19th century-old created confusion and in some of research and production and Act – The Epidemic Diseases Act cases, chaos. In such circumstances, also in demand and supply. of 1897, enacted by the British there is a need to deeply review the An interdisciplinary and trans- Parliament to curb in the spread existing Epidemic Diseases Act, disciplinary approach is required of the plague in Mandvi (then in 1897, not only in the context of the for the successful implementation Bombay Presidency; presently in present pandemic but also other of the management of such mega- Gujarat). An over the century- pandemics and their management crisis. Better coordination is a must old document has very limited in the future. In addition to the legal relevance and utility in the present issues, the other felt need, while and regional administrators, as well context when all social, political managing this mega-disaster, is the as stakeholders from the community and governance systems have gone and CSOs, CBOs, NGOs and under total transformation. The Act guidelines or Standard Operating INGOs for such mega-level disaster mainly focuses on the prevention handling. The ideal mechanism of disease with limited provision roles, responsibilities, and functions to handle such coordination must to respond or curb the disease. of various role players and Other main limitations, especially stakeholders, neither at the Central community must combine all in the present context of COVID-19, nor State level, which are easily include no clear-cut guidelines available in case of other common about the isolation of a suspected hand, the administration, social patient to prevent the spread, no drought, etc. and communication organizations provision of a special task force ensure to make optimum use of the to tackle the problem on the spot Investing in Disaster Risk without waiting for the permission Reduction for Resilience of the affected community through from the concerned authorities developing and communicating the and safety and security of the A systemic risk, like the present risk reduction products. pandemic with complex nature and unpredictability, needs a systematic There is a lack of interdisciplinary In this context, the Union Cabinet public and private investment in risk competence, trained subject experts on April 22, 2020, approved the prevention and reduction through and civil servants, and also a Epidemic Diseases (Amendment) structural and non-structural proper network of experts to share Ordinance, 2020, to add protections measures to enhance the resilience knowledge and ideas. Special for healthcare personnel, involved of persons, communities, and capacity building programs are in combating epidemic and also countries. These investments need required for various stakeholders simultaneously expands the powers like medical professionals, of the Central Government to innovating vaccine, developing administrative functionaries, and make arrangements to prevent the preventive equipment (such as PPE communicators to better manage spread of such diseases. This is kits, masks, etc.), creating assets such disastrous situations effectively ` and other facilities like capacity Management Act, 2005, is used to enhancement of existing hospitals enhancement of these functionaries, manage a pandemic, especially for to manage mass casualties, it is of utmost importance to imposing lockdown guidelines and building new hospitals, creating incorporate pandemic disaster to take other measures to maintain medical responders and enhancing management content in the social distancing and to prevent capacities of the existing ones and ongoing training programs, and if the spread of the pandemic. In required, necessary arrangements

Aug-Sep | 2020 21 Perspective

can be made to initiate some special courses for pandemic management at existing institutes. There is also a need to develop, and if already existing, promote knowledge-sharing platforms for • regular workshops and seminars for such knowledge-sharing exercises. Research and innovations need to be promoted in universities, especially technical institutions such as IITs, NIDs, NITs, and other professional colleges to innovate appropriate technologies to manage and reduce disaster risks and also help in post- disaster rehabilitation and recovery programs.

Enhance Preparedness for Effective Response and Reconstruction with may require special preparedness labourers or people doing petty Build Back Better options and strategies to deal with. business. Approach A critical analysis of the preparedness COVID-19 has had a devastating For an effective response, especially measures to respond to a pandemic impact on almost all sectors, in the case of systemic risks such reveals that there is quite a good especially the economy. The need as COVID-19, the preparedness scope to improve and upgrade the of the hour is that debts need to needs a comprehensive and response preparedness system. The system-based approach, where of investment have to be found in preparedness measures need to be response in the present case is the every sector, starting from roadside strengthened as well as ensure that capacity enhancement of responders vendors to huge multinational capacities for effective recovery through training and/ or orientation companies. The decision made at are in place. While preparing for programs, including that of health this present juncture is very critical a response, it is of paramount personnel, administration, and law and will have long term impact on importance that the policymakers and order functionaries. Awareness are very clear about the options generation of the community is product or society we are going to available to mitigate and reduce have after this catastrophe is over. The their support and cooperation. desired economic recovery has to be also about the impacts of current In addition to this software durable and resilient and needs to decisions on future options. In approach, the preparedness be designed with “Build Back Better” complex situations where risks are for material in terms of hospital approach, giving due consideration non-linear and unpredictable and preparedness with necessities such to factoring in resilience to climate frequently changing its forms and as oxygen, medicines, alternative change and environmental nature, it becomes imperative to arrangements of hospitals and beds conservation. Atmanirbhar Bharat get prepared not only for current in case hospitals are fully occupied, is one of the best examples of such risks but also for future risks, which quarantine centres with all facilities, timely decisions. If implemented may be a result of some external transportation and means of in its true spirit, involving all phenomenon or a consequence communication, including hospitals, major stakeholders, including the of risk reduction or mitigation proper facilities for disposal of community, the reconstruction and measures taken. In such cases, it carcasses, food stock and other recovery results will certainly be is the responsibility of the decision- essential items to use during an exemplary and sustainable leading makers to assess and evaluate emergency, arrangement for stay, to make the country self-reliant and the possible future threat that and meal for casual workers and “Vishv Guru” in every sense.

22 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective COVID-19 Pandemic: Its Implications to the Sendai Framework and Risk Assessment Rajib Shaw, Professor, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Japan

The COVID-19 pandemic is The pandemic has not only impacted 2017 (Biological Hazards Risk the worst biological hazard- economies at every level, but it has Assessment) underscore that an induced disaster observed also hindered the achievement of estimated 75 per cent of emerging in recent memory. The year the SDGs. Moreover, the cumulative infectious diseases of humans that 2020, which is supposed to be effect of COVID-19 has strongly have evolved from exposure to an important milestone year impacted national and local zoonotic pathogens warrant risk for the (SDGs), the Sendai development planning. The Sendai assessments for health threats at the Framework and the Paris Framework reinforces the scope interface between animal, human Climate Agreement, is under of disaster risk management by and the ecosystem. The guidelines the shadow of the pandemic. expanding beyond natural hazards note three approaches to assessing The Sendai Framework to include biological hazards such as the risks of biological hazards reinforces the scope of epidemic- and pandemic diseases. catering to three different purposes: disaster risk management by The Sendai Framework also places 1. A strategic risk assessment expanding beyond natural a strong emphasis on the need which caters to pre-event hazards to include biological to build resilient health systems phase and aids in planning for hazards such as epidemic through the integration of disaster prevention, preparedness, capacity and pandemic diseases. risk management into the provision development and medium to The Sendai Framework also of health care at all levels and, in longer-term risk monitoring and places a strong emphasis on particular, “to enhance cooperation evaluation. the need to build resilient between health authorities and other health systems through relevant stakeholders to strengthen 2. Rapid risk assessment is used the integration of disaster country capacity for disaster risk for planning response interventions risk management into the management for health.” based on the risk associated with provision of health care at all detected events levels and, in particular, “to Risk Assessment 3. Post-event assessment is used enhance cooperation between Framework for planning recovery, updating health authorities and other and strengthening the overall risk relevant stakeholders to Comprehensive risk assessment management system. strengthen country capacity of biological hazards forms the for disaster risk management basis for effective emergency risk Analysis of past cases of pandemics for health.” management of health, helps in and public health emergencies understanding risk by supporting of international concern (PHEIC) The pandemic’s unprecedented risk communication and acts as and the experience of countries speed and spread have affected a backbone for risk-informed in managing COVID-19 point most parts of the world. The year decision making, planning and towards the need for evidence- 2020, which is supposed to be an development. Conducting such an based decision making supported important milestone year for the assessment calls for a whole-of- by technology and innovations to Sustainable Development Goals government and whole-of-society develop early warning and risk (SDGs), the Sendai Framework for approach, as also suggested by assessment tools (Figure 1). The Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 WHO’s IHR and HEDRM. direct, indirect and wider impacts and the Paris Climate Agreement, is The Words into Action Guidelines: of a health emergency are sector- under the shadow of the pandemic. National Disaster Risk Assessment,

Aug-Sep | 2020 23 Perspective

risk management regulations, and where applicable, review laws to determine implications for disaster risk management. - Enhance science-based governance and decision making: Science-based, data-centric decision making is considered hotspots, to provide policymakers with the appropriate advice, and to Figure 1: Inferences from dealing with past and current health emergencies address collateral hazards. Risk Assessment Tool SFDRR Priority 3: Risk awareness is the best way found in WHO’s Health-Emergency Investing in DRR for to prevent and slow down the Disaster Risk Management (Health- EDRM). The following are some Resilience transmission of the COVID-19 further recommendations for the pandemic. Risk awareness integration of biological hazards social protection: Epidemics and is achieved through the into DRR strategies: pandemics affect wide sectors communication of risk assessment. of society and put both lives and Effective risk communication is SFDRR Priority 1: livelihoods at risk, which also an important measure to control Understanding Disaster impedes development. infodemic. Most risk assessment Risk - Enhance business resilience: tools focus on either tracking the Keeping with a whole-of- affected patients or diagnosing a - Conduct integrated risk society approach, public-private probable health condition through assessments: For biological partnerships and business-to- symptoms. RIKA India developed hazards, a comprehensive multi- business cooperation are important an innovative Risk Assessment Tool hazard and multi-sectoral National elements to ensure the continuity of which goes beyond the symptom Risk Assessment (NRA) needs to be supply chains. detection and patient tracking. conducted. The assessment should It includes four factors in risk include exposure, vulnerability and SFDRR Priority 4: assessment: Health, Behaviour, capacity analyses as part of an Enhancing Disaster Exposure, and Social Policy. Each integrated policy approach. Preparedness for of these four factors has sub- - Enhance capacities and Effective Response factors which help to assess the knowledge management: - Robust and integrated early overall risk more comprehensively Capacity and systems development warning systems: Early warning and also present it to the user in a for integrated risk assessment at is key to responding to any type the national to the local level is of hazard, and biological hazards the Risk Assessment Tool lies both in important. Disciplinary divergence are no exception. A proper early awareness generation and decision (wherever possible) and multi- warning system for biological making. Further, the datasets disciplinary collaboration are key hazards can be developed only generated through the tool have to producing an integrated risk when there is a robust public health been analyzed to understand the key assessment. system in place, which detects any intervention areas for COVID-19 biological hazards before outbreaks response and management. SFDRR Priority 2: occur. Strengthen Disaster Risk - Introduce business continuity Integration into DRR Governance planning and adaptive strategies: Strategies - Revising regulations, legislations, Since epidemics and pandemics Effective and relevant risk policies: Several countries have are often long-lasting, proper management of biological hazards different regulations for emergencies business continuity planning for changes with the advancement of and disasters including epidemics core impacted sectors/ministries science, clinical medicine and public and pandemics. It is important are critical. These plans should be health practices and policy. The latest to identify synergies between the developed in advance or at an early technical guidelines and research health emergency and disaster stage of the event.

24 Aug-Sep | 2020 Viewpoint

2020: A Planet Under Repair and Maintenance Shriyans Bhandari is a Social Entrepreneur and the Co-founder of Greensole, an NGO that provides refurbished discarded footwear with zero carbon footprint and economic good to underprivileged school children, where owning a single pair of basic footwear is considered to be a luxury.

Quarantine, Social Distancing, Self Isolation. Lockdown. but when one descends upon us While these words have as suddenly as this present one – { \ ` time that we have come to fully understand their meaning. The same is true for all other words: hard work, space, but here it is, in a mode compassion, family time, love. We get a grasp of their true creating more damage and fear in meaning once we experience such a short period. them. ` as it has all the elements: the 2020 will go down in history as spread, lethality, unpreparedness, a year of great challenges. The year started with the catastrophic Shriyans Bhandari us unprepared, unless we identify the country in unimaginable the early signs of misbalance in the magnitude. No sooner had the ^ world come to terms with this ^ other areas of our systems. alarm as soon as they see any ^ 

Aug-Sep | 2020 25 Viewpoint

There is also an urgent need for an active risk management department in all governments which sparks an alarm as soon as they see any potential development which could potentially derail society

— ` — classes, ideation, and many more | ` things. planning in our genes. This may not left out from the bandwagon been programmed for this, time and potential and the fact that no — — matter how tough the day is, it will —` the number of cases rising or do we and the unfortunate ones who lost — ` — with family and catching up with friends, which is also important. pass to restart, to grow. The good and bad times need to be used to to see that the most successful _ to Airbnb. This is a good time to spend on planning on your current

26 Aug-Sep | 2020 Viewpoint

Looking back at history, we find out that the earth has been plagued by a pandemic every hundred years. We will rise from the ashes and rebuild ourselves all over again. It does make us think if there could be a larger reason behind this - to motivate us to change necessities and wants and spend accordingly. But most importantly, our lifestyle, reduce climate there is a need to understand the change and self-introspect on response time to a crisis and how we rise after it. what matters introspect on what matters. and things may get worse before ^ must not forget the lessons of this crisis and bring about necessary us going during these tough times, dismantled and require less time later on in such situations. to restart with a low debt ratio. to measure the impact, but we must „ that the earth has been plagued by employ their budget for different pandemic and ensure that it does not become the mother of all crisis.

Aug-Sep | 2020 27 Insight COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plans and India’s Pivot to Low Carbon Sustainable Development

Pooran Chandra Pandey is a founding CEO of a Berlin-based global think tank - Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute. He has worked with the UN and the Times of India in senior leadership roles.

# \ 09-5N09 29 per cent with a mortality rate of 3.2 per cent. *} Recognising this strenuous effort of /9 0909 the Indian government’s lockdown, 1~ ; -< 0909 the Oxford COVID-19 Government ; ! Response Tracker (OxCGRT), in >\ its report based on data from 73

28 Aug-Sep | 2020 Insight

facilities, personal protective gears, need to infuse about USD 2 billion nurses and doctors and ventilators into improving the health systems along with a shortage of beds and and about USD 12 billion over the COVID-19 has also dealt a hospitals for the infected patients next decade to create about 2.5 with the virus. India currently million hospital beds. fresh blow to the country’s accounts for one bed per 1000 healthcare system and *S doctor against WHO’s prescribed " exposed vulnerabilities in minimum standards of three beds terms of the lack of testing per 1000 patients. If this is the case and assuming that there could be a The Indian Prime Minister, recently, in facilities, personal protective rebound, it is estimated that by Q1 a televised address also announced gears, nurses and doctors of 2021, the Government would a large economic recovery and ventilators along with a shortage of beds and hospitals for the infected patients with the virus

USD 50 billion to address the issue of liquidity in the banking sector. COVID-19 has also dealt a fresh blow to the country’s healthcare system and exposed vulnerabilities in terms of the lack of testing

Aug-Sep | 2020 29 Insight

COVID-19 next time). This recovery package is the largest announced by far in independent India’s history; accounting for 10 per cent national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 70 per cent of India’s total budget presented for the FY 2020-21 in February this year. The country thus becomes among the Top 5 that has set aside 10 per cent or more of their Gross National Product (GNP) apportioned toward the economic recovery package health crisis emanating from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. While announcing the economic recovery plan, the Indian Prime Minister also spoke about climate change and global warming as key future challenges and asked for responsible conduct by the companies in re-setting their economic activities in the post-lock- down period starting May 31. He also stressed on technology-driven economic growth putting people (reforms) package pegged at USD at the centre of overall sustainable 270 billion aimed at strengthening development for India. Details of before country’s supply chains the package are being worked out through the private and public and are going to have key climate For instance, the Government sector participation in making India and global warming measures is discussing with the auto self-reliant (without depending on embedded into the economic any outside support for essential recovery measures for follow up industry making greater supplies during anything like and reporting. use of Bharat VII fuel (the cleanest transport fuel) for their new cars, undertaking and revising the adaptation of the proposed e-mobility policy one year ahead of the planned date, and strengthening the EV charging infrastructure and storage facilities

30 Aug-Sep | 2020 Insight

date, and strengthening the EV charging infrastructure and storage of 7.5 per cent from 2020 to 2030,” facilities. The Government also states UNEP-led ‘The Emissions said they would provide subsidies Gap Report, 2019’ India has charted out a plan, to those who shift to electric cars unlike others, that promotes or clean-fuel cars. With airlines, *S? a national economic recovery the government is discussing their 1' plans to lease out new-generation 4 plan rather than offering aircraft that are superior in design handouts to industries with COVID-19 pandemic has been accountability embedded into with the construction and real estate devastating for the people and sectors, discussions are underway economies while simultaneously the proposed plans to account to promote the use of graded steel, being a boon in disguise for for each rupee spent and the natural materials made of wood, our climate and environment. value obtained therefrom The Indian Government has and cutting the usage of water in already committed to embedding building new facilities. climate-resilient and technology measures based on human- During these trying times, India like centric sustainable development. other countries has seen a visible Alongside the measures 11 drop in its NOx and CO2. It has announced, the Government is posted a drop of 62 per cent in its =? further urged to push with greater NOx and 42 per cent in CO2 (best- vigour policy measures such as the case scenario) levels. While these promotion of clean fuel; cleaner The national lockdown in India, like changes are visible on a short-term heating/ cooling options, green- other places, has proven to result basis, questions remain whether grids, and phase-out of coal. in improved climatic conditions such a situation can hold its ground E-mobility measures and creating including low emissions, cleaner post the virus period when industrial more green jobs may help stabilise rivers, lower CO2, cleaner air, and activities resume full-blown. improvements in bio-diversity. The the climate gains made during the Government has been discussing “This drop of emissions of six per current pandemic. cent, that’s unfortunately (only) directly with the industry the India has charted out a plan, unlike short-term good news,” said possibility of adopting practices others, that promotes a national Professor Petteri Taalas, World post COVID-19 that will allow for economic recovery plan rather Meteorological Organization the continuation of these improved than offering handouts to industries (WMO) Secretary-General, in climatic conditions. with accountability embedded into reference to a 5.5 to 5.7 per cent the proposed plans to account for For instance, the Government is fall in levels of carbon dioxide due each rupee spent and the value discussing with the auto industry obtained there from. The economic in making greater use of Bharat the industrial activities resume, the package announced by the Indian VII fuel (the cleanest transport fuel) emissions can go back to its normal Government is aimed at revival, for their new cars, undertaking levels. “The extent of urgency in recovery and putting the domestic and revising the adaptation of countries’ ability to achieve 1.5 economy on a fast-paced growth the proposed e-mobility policy degree Celsius target requires a one year ahead of the planned trajectory without being inward - The economic package announced by the Indian Government is aimed at revival, recovery and putting the domestic economy on a fast-paced growth trajectory without being inward - a plan that has potentially all the ingredients for it to succeed and pay a rich dividend to both Indian industries, economies and people in short to medium term horizons.

Aug-Sep | 2020 31 Perspective Reducing Risk for Future Disasters Through Greening of Disaster Response Bindu Aggarwal, Faculty/Special Adviser (Disaster Management ) for Indian Red Cross Society (NHQ)

The post-disaster situation practices include avoiding felling allows humanitarian timber on steep slopes which may actors and communities an risk future landslides or polluting opportunity to undertake local water supplies with sewage projects that have an from temporary settlements. integrated environmental Post-disaster, there is also an component to build back opportunity to tackle previously safer. This may be, for existing environmental problems example, rebuilding with and build back safer and greener clean energy systems, or (for example, better land-use to reducing development in promote recharge of aquifers, ~ hence conserving or hampering chances to build back better for a Bindu Aggarwal Climate change worsens the risk resilient future. At the same time, of some hazards arising from it must also be recognised that landslide prevention and treatment extreme weather events and climate there is a risk of improper practices „ warming (e.g. drought, avalanches, during recovery and reconstruction. of disaster response and recovery helps to achieve targets of sections of the population the environment, thereby, putting ` „ tremendously depend on locally- `„`„ available natural resources and Planning to reduce carbon footprints ecosystem services for their livelihood during disaster response opens up and security. Natural resources are „ ` includes, for example, minimizing materials, forest foods, grazing and environmental impacts of relief medicines. Clean air, clean and ` materials during production, reliable water supplies, protection need for the greening of disaster packaging, distribution and from soil erosion, landslides and response, reduce degradation disposal, reducing demand for of the environment and achieve fuelwood for cooking/warmth, services provided by ecosystems. community resilience. and poles for temporary shelters. Avoiding overexploitation of natural resources or damage to ecosystem All sectors call for the greening it for reconstruction reduces the services reduces risk to hazards. of disaster response including debris load and generates revenue. In this context, environmentally- settlements and land-use planning, Local procurement of relief material responsible practices pave the way building construction, energy, waste further reduces the fuel consumption for resilience to future disasters management, water and sanitation, and costs involved in transportation through sustainable reconstruction. agriculture and livelihoods, forestry, from distant locations. Environmentally-responsible education and infrastructure,

32 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

Better through avoidance of `„› landslide-prone areas, and take and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, account of increasing climate water and soil pollution and contamination. variability accompanied by green `„œ› infrastructure - trees. environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and • Ecosystem restoration and municipal and other waste management. sustainable livelihood options `„› be followed to reduce pressure of cities and human settlements adopting and on natural resources forests and implementing integrated policies and plans biodiversity. # and adaptation to climate change, resilience vulnerabilities of women and to disasters, and develop and implement, in marginalized people be addressed ` concerning natural resources | during recovery. Promote equitable management at all levels. access to recovery support and strengthen community institutions Principles of Greening Disaster # ` and participation. Response Plan in place following principles of segregation, recycle and reuse. • Enforce environmental impact # Ensure that solid waste disposal assessment/initial environmental demarcated only after conducting during the reconstruction phase is examination regulations during land-use planning, including managed using environmentally- reconstruction to avoid future • • sound practices, including the disasters; and ensure enforcement. introduction of new systems to avoid It is also important to take into • Build capacity for green recovery the threat of vector-borne diseases. account adequate land and natural and reconstruction through resources to meet community • Use a watershed management training and outreach and ensure needs. approach. Protecting and managing consultation/coordination with the watershed can help sustain the relevant stakeholders in recovery • Building design and construction water source, and provide other and reconstruction. to comply with standards laid out services such as water retention and should be environmentally Green recovery and reconstruction _ sustainable, appropriate to the is everyone’s responsibility post- interventions that reduce demand region, and withstand future local disaster – no single organization on water supplies, decrease the disasters. or sector can do it in silos. While there is a very important role for the • Promotion of alternative or bodies, provide communities with environmental sector in helping to higher water quality and quantity, identify potentially damaging actions practices at settlement camps to and decrease maintenance effort and ways to avoid adverse impacts, reduce pressure on forests. Ensure and costs. ` that fuel wood collection complies # recovery and reconstruction – be it with existing forest management like roads, bridges and hydropower, „ plans. follow the principle of Build Back academic institutes or research bodies - all need to play their part. allows humanitarian actors and communities an opportunity to undertake projects that have an integrated environmental may be, for example, rebuilding with clean energy systems, or prone areas.

Aug-Sep | 2020 33 Humanitarian Response Double Whammy - Responding to Cyclone Amaphan Amidst COVID-19

Soumi Halder, Manager - Campaigns & Communication (East) Devendra Tak Head - Media & Communication Save the Children

Following the large scale steadily infecting people across all Children are always the most devastation rendered by sections of society. According to vulnerable in such humanitarian Cyclone Amphan amid UNICEF, approximately 19 million situations, and across India, they COVID-19, affecting people children in West Bengal itself were form a sizable 40 per cent of in general, and children in directly affected due to the said the population (Census 2011). particular, Save the Children cyclone. has set an example in which cannot be just generally The double jeopardy of COVID-19 effectively responding to covered. Children were forced and Cyclone Amphan has proven the situation by meeting the to stay away from school due to to be a terrifying phenomenon. urgent needs, especially of the COVID-19 lockdown. They Due to the nationwide lockdown to the children. Besides, with became vulnerable to severe prevent community outbreak of the a blend of agility, resilience threats ranging from physical to deadly Corona virus, the disaster and leadership, Save the emotional and psychological. management infrastructure was Children through its partner There is a threat of increased already under unprecedented organization, has been able abuse at home, as has been strain. After all, how often do we to secure the rights of the found in the sudden spike in the have a disaster that spans the children and help rebuild number of distress calls received entire length and breadth of the their communities in a double- by Childline during the lockdown nation and which has the potential edged crisis like this. period; and then there is the need to impact every citizen? Due to the for psychosocial support – which lockdown and social distancing is most often neglected and which norms, a huge blow was delivered On 20 May 2020, West Bengal was brutally hit by Cyclone Amphan. It to the livelihood of millions of was the severest tropical storm in people. Millions of labourers and Save the Children understands the region. It was also the strongest other workers have migrated that ‘Children Cannot Wait’. It, super cyclone in recorded times back to their original homes to be therefore, makes every effort to and the costliest one ever in the closer to their loved ones and draw be the ‘First to arrive and last region – with estimates putting strength from each other. Health to leave’ whenever any disaster damages to over one trillion rupees infrastructure was already under strike. The leading independent ($13 billion) to infrastructure and tremendous strain; many migrant Child Rights organization that labourers were stuck in the middle works across 19 States in India and in the media (Reuters). There is of nowhere when transportation 120 countries worldwide, aims to never a good time to have such came to a halt due to Cyclone respond to any emergency, such a disaster but there could hardly Amphan. Trying to coordinate as a cyclone, within 72 hours of have been a worse one – with the disaster relief teams and supplies its landfall. A strong element of region, as well as the world, still to where they were needed the disaster preparedness is to build clueless about how to deal with most became complicated and the resilience of communities. A the COVID-19 pandemic that was took more time. lot of work has been undertaken

34 Aug-Sep | 2020 Humanitarian Response

in this region by Save the Children towards this end. Working with children’s groups, trainings were imparted to ensure children know how to keep themselves safe and offer their support to the community. Last year, when Cyclone Fani had threatened the eastern coastline, children’s groups had played a stellar role in alerting their communities as part of the Early Warning System to make sure that everyone evacuated to safety. This time, despite all the challenges, we were able to establish regular contact through the telephone. The planning for our work began well before the cyclone’s landfall. We kept our partners well informed about how we would assess and respond to any need. Within 72 Kolkata and the coastal villages of our response has been our youth hours after the cyclone struck, the Sunderbans in the submerged advocates and child champions. we initiated our response in the land areas post-Amphan. Over the years, Save the Children affected areas of North 24 Parganas Over the last three months, defying has steadily engaged in training district. Our response kits include a all odds and challenges, we have children to advocate for their rights. food basket (that can provide a 30- reached out to 3638 households It was in this hour of need that these covering more than 18,000 champions came up with exemplary hygiene kit (containing sanitizers, people, as part of COVID-19 and support. Save the Children’s Youth mask, gloves, soap, toothbrush, Cyclone Amphan humanitarian Advocate, Anoyara Khatun, a Nari toothpaste, etc.). Our ground team response in Kolkata (Ward: 11, Shakti Awardee - 2017 (whose took every precautionary measure 28,31,36, 56,57,58, 59, 62, amazing story is documented in in advance to accomplish the 65 93, 107 & 114), North 24 the book ‘We are the Champions’), distribution process while reaching Parganas, South 24 Parganas and worked together with children and out near the Containment Zones in East Medinipur. We are extremely the community to save families thankful for the support of key in her village in Choto Ajgara of stakeholders from the community Sandeshkhali I Block in North 24 and the government. Parganas. As soon as they were informed about the approaching “I thank Save the Children Stakeholders like the members super-cyclone, Anoyara and two of of the West Bengal Commission for reaching out to the most her peers recalled the aftermath of for Protection of Child Rights Aila, the tropical cyclone that had marginalised communities in (WBCPCR) and the Chairperson, hit the area 11 years back. Aila Smt. Ananya Chatterjee my block, after Amphan and changed their life forever. Promising Chakraborty joined our response herself that no child should suffer amidst COVID-19 crisis”, said during the State Child Protection her fate, Anoyara immediately Day on June 9, 2020.WBCPCR Shri Rajendra Nath Khanra, raised the alarm in her community. team had also distributed kits in Since most of the cyclone relief Block Sabhapati, Sagar Block, our intervention areas. In some centres were already being used other areas, the local Member of 24 Parganas (S), West Bengal ` Legislative Assemblies (MLAs) and the villagers took shelter at the Ward Councilors joined our team village high school. Anoyara during our response work. and two other youth champions One of the strongest elements of ensured that social distancing was

Aug-Sep | 2020 35 Humanitarian Response

maintained to avoid being infected by COVID-19. After the fateful night when Cyclone Amphan had completed its landfall, Save the Children and its local partner - Dhagagia Social Welfare Society (DSWS) - went to assess the ground situation. The agony of the people staying there was beyond imagination. With no electricity, food and proper drinking water, people were desperately waiting for relief. The makeshift relief centre had only one toilet that was accessed by all the 150 residents of that camp. Anoyara and her peers supported the team in completing the Rapid Assessment process on May 22, 2020. Among the 150 people of her village whom she relocated to a school building was a family of These child champions and youth they are being able to keep the four – consisting of two visually advocates are an integral part of virus at bay in their lanes and by- impaired girls - Alya and Tuhina our intervention that spearheads lanes. “We can understand the - and their parents. Anoyara was the community mobilisation seriousness of the situation, but it also able to help Alya and Tuhina process. In the heart of the slums and their mother, Fatima Bibi, to of Kolkata, near Park Circus area, to understand the seriousness, and reach the cyclone shelter to ensure that is aggravating the situation,” their safety. “Had Anoyara Didi the Containment Zones, one would revealed Murshida. not saved us then, we would have „ been washed away by the high tide “It is essential that civil society Khatoon, all of 14 years, reaching that had followed the cyclone. I organisations, the government out to her neighbours to generate owe a lot to her,” said a grateful and the community at large come awareness about the spread of Fatima when Save the Children together while responding during the virus. She has a group of 15 representatives met her. such disasters or the pandemic,” children who also take part in the „ As Save the Children began its awareness generation process in Manager and State Lead, Save the humanitarian response in the their slum that has a population of Children, West Bengal. locality within 72 hours of the over a hundred people. aftermath of the cyclone, Anoyara, Ever since the lockdown was The success of Save the Children’s (ignoring her plight in the situation) response and the grit of its child took extra care that the children implemented, this young group initiated their campaign on champions like Anoyara and got priority attention. She had Murshida remind us of the inspiring proper methods of handwashing, maintaining social distancing and words of our founder, Eglantyne distribute masks among the rescued Jebb, from a hundred years ago: individuals to protect them from proper mask usage. These child “Save the Children is often told that probable infection of COVID-19. champions, with proper protection, its aims are impossible – that there A blend of agility, resilience and go around their neighbourhood to has always been child suffering leadership, Anoyara and her peers monitor whether social distancing and there always will be. We know. proved to secure child rights even is maintained when people are It’s impossible only if we make it at such a distressing situation. so. It’s impossible only if we refuse They are helping to rebuild their communities as well. at the public tank. This is how to attempt it.”

36 Aug-Sep | 2020 Viewpoint

COVID-19: Through the Looking Glass Dr Ram Boojh is the CEO, Mobius Foundation. He has a rich and diverse professional experience of work- ing with the United Nations, Government, and academic and development organizations. He has made an education for sustainable development for over three decades in India and abroad.

COVID-19, also known as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome – Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most serious global crisis today. The UN Secretary-General - Antonio Guterres - has termed it as a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations - one that is spreading human suffering, infecting the global economy and upending people’s lives. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic and “a public health emergency of international concern”. The rapid spread of the pandemic across the nations and societies has adversely affected the economic, social and health infrastructure with repercussions on life and livelihoods of millions at an unprecedented scale. According to the Asian Development Bank, COVID-19 can lead to losses between US$ 387 million and US$ 29.9 billion in personal consumption losses for the Indian economy alone.

Dr Ram Boojh The crisis has come at such a time Development Goals (SDGs). The when the world was preparing world was also set to launch the new with the shift of focus on the corona itself to accelerate action on the agenda for halting the rapid loss of crisis, addressing all other pressing climate crisis and fast track the biodiversity and the new framework global issues have now been put on implementation of the 2030 for Education for Sustainable hold for an uncertain period, which Agenda and the Sustainable Development-ESD 2030. However, may be for a few months to more

Aug-Sep | 2020 37 Viewpoint

The world is paying a huge economic and health cost due to the corona crisis. However, the crisis has its root in the utter disregard and negligence of humans towards environmental sustainability concerns. Emergences of corona-like diseases are linked to the and health cost to the corona crisis. However, experts feel that the ban over-exploitation of nature However, the crisis has its root in alone is not enough to effectively and its resources as well as the utter disregard and negligence protect public health from wildlife- over-consumption coupled of humans towards environmental associated diseases; rather it with the loss of biodiversity, sustainability concerns. Emergences requires the implementation of corona-like diseases are linked of a more comprehensive and forest destruction and to the over-exploitation of nature sustainable production and degradation and its resources as well as over- consumption approach. Many consumption coupled with the loss traditional Chinese medicines are of biodiversity, forest destruction made from wildlife products, such and degradation. The rapid as pangolin scales, snake bile, and ecological degradation, habitat bat faeces which are not banned by than a year. In this scenario, we loss, deterioration of ecological legislation. The poaching, storage need to analyse and look beyond systems, loss of species and and transportation of wildlife for the current crisis from the lens of ecosystems bring wild animals into medicinal purposes pose a risk of sustainability and the future we all closer contact with humans and transmitting such diseases. The want to have. domesticated animals resulting in an current pandemic should force the infectious disease called zoonosis. Chinese government and the UN to Root Causes: The Wild animals in their natural habitat come out with a comprehensive and Connection to Wild Life harbour a vast pool of dangerous permanent ban on all such practices related to wildlife to prevent future The world is paying a huge economic viruses and other pathogens which remain harmless till they public health risks. come in contact with humans or domesticated animals. COVID-19 The Need to Treat is believed to have originated in Industrial Waste Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market The COVID-19 crisis and the in Wuhan, spreading the contagion unprecedented lockdown in India and many other countries have across the nations, in a globalised some silver lining too. The air and interconnected world. quality in many cities across the According to estimates, around 6.3 million people are directly with clearer skies and cleaner air engaged in wild animal farming to breathe. Since industrial wastes in China with a total value of $18 billion. The Chinese Government on February 24, 2020, prohibited in pollution in them as well. Some the consumption of terrestrial experts also believe that the present wildlife to protect public health. crisis could trigger the biggest fall

38 Aug-Sep | 2020 Viewpoint

economies and livelihoods. These should be used for simultaneous coordinated action to address the We will be able to win the root ecological causes of the crisis battle over COVID-19 with the ways to better tackle global advent of effective medicines, environment and sustainability challenges to restore and rebuild mass antibody tests and the lost ecological systems and vaccines in the days to come. natures assets upon which we all depend for our survival. There is However, there is a need to an urgent need to treat industrial bring about changes in the waste as well as improve the air quality by limiting cars on the road. “If governments put health, natural ways we live and go about Other measures such as regulating regeneration and climate action at our day-to-day business stubble burning, emphasis on the core of every decision they make public transport-sharing system and in recovering from this pandemic, we practising sustainable construction can emerge as a stronger and more techniques will go a long way in resilient society, and on track to a protecting air quality. safer climate future.” in carbon emissions since World Former UN Climate Chief War II. Changes in a Working Christiana Figueres Lifestyle However, to avoid a new surge in pollution and emissions when We will be able to win the battle post-crisis to promote creativity economic activities resume, we over COVID-19 with the advent of and innovation, thus building new need to learn the right lessons effective medicines, mass antibody sustainable enterprises and social of living sustainably with nature tests and vaccines in the days to systems. It has also underscored and the planet. The problem has come. However, there is a need to the need for greater collaboration also taught a hard lesson to the bring about changes in the ways and sharing best business practices global community that economic we live and go about our day-to- across the globe. The role of lifelong development activities can be put day business. Work from home learning has assumed paramount to a halt to save precious lives. experiences from across the globe importance for the workforce to This pandemic need not pause our has brought new and innovative ways gear for changing job roles in the thinking on other equally pressing wake of an uncertain future ahead. crises such as climate, pollution, schools, universities and other The crisis has made us rethink about biodiversity loss and population work centres. Virtual communities age-old traditional knowledge explosion. Governments around the formed during the epidemic have world are in the process of providing enabled people to come together in experiences and understanding of economic stimulus packages in a more meaningful way, although the natural world, lifestyle choices, response to COVID-19 to rebuild remotely. These should be used herbals, yoga, ayurveda, etc., for creating immunity and building resilience for better health and well- being. The ongoing liquidity crunch in most sectors will prompt several organisations to adopt judicious put in place a comprehensive crisis management plan to tackle such exigencies in future. Going forward, sustainability and an emphasis towards a ‘greener’ future should be at the core of every decision-making.

Aug-Sep | 2020 39 Perspective Climate Change and COVID-19 Dr. Kashif Imdad Assistant Professor of Geography - PPN PG College, CSJM University, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh

We have been visited by Climate Change many unwanted, disastrous Background ~  \ In the beginning, it was considered had COVID-19, followed by that as we are burning fossil Category 5 tropical cyclone fuels, gases will be added to the – Amphan, and the recent atmosphere, making it even thicker. guest – the catastrophic As the atmosphere thickens, the ~  planet becomes warmer. It is similar a single disaster; we are to your blanket in winters, the thicker facing multiple hazards at the blanket the warmer you feel. the same time. The crisis is Then in 1896, a Swedish scientist, unprecedented and the future Svante Arrhenius, came up with Dr. Kashif Imdad ~‰\ a new idea published in the form the same, but due to the greenhouse brought some relief for the of a research paper, bringing an effect, the earth’s temperature planet as air quality improved entirely new dimension of research began rising. The increase in the throughout the world. Roads for generations to come. He stated average temperature of the earth were empty and rivers that as humanity burned fossil is known as Global Warming. On became cleaner as industries fuels such as coal, which added the opposite side, the decline in shut down operations. carbon dioxide gas to the Earth’s the average temperature of the atmosphere, we raise the planet’s earth is known as Global Cooling. average temperature. Changes in the climate of the Is Climate Change and The ‘Greenhouse Effect’ was earth due to rise or fall in average COVID-19 related? introduced almost 200 years ago temperature is known as Climate For most people, climate change when Joseph Fourier, a French Change. This rhythmic rise and fall mathematician described how some makes no sense. It is not that they happen naturally in the geological atmospheric gases can trap the solar are not ready to accept but it is history of the earth. Unfortunately, energy. These gases acquired a beyond their comprehension to whatever is happening now in a very popular name ‘Greenhouse Gases’ understand what climate change short duration can only be linked to which mainly comprise of carbon is. It is always easy to accept as large-scale pollution primarily due dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous to burning of fossil fuels. NOAA/ one’s comprehension or sight. This GFD Computer Model Simulations was added in later stages as it is a is how human psychology works. by the Intergovernmental Panel man-made gas. This ‘Greenhouse What if the situation is opposite and on Climate Change predicted that Effect’ was only one of the many the average surface temperatures you see and feel the impact of an speculations about climate change incident? You then began to look could rise between 2°C and 6°C until it picked up pace in the 1960s by the end of the 21st century. How for answers beyond general facts with a strong UN backing. much temperature could rise is and proven science to explain what dependent on how much economic you experienced. What is Climate Change? development we want. High So what is climate change? The economic development will lead us second is COVID-19. Let us try to average temperature of the earth to the upper side of prediction and understand them independently in the 20th century was 14°C. In low economic development would and try to link these unlikely a normal course of events, this lead to the lower side of prediction. incidents together. average temperature should remain The United Nations Climate Change

40 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

Conference, 2015, well known as COP 21, held in Paris, represented by global leaders, pledged to come under the same umbrella to restrain average temperature to reach 16°C by the end of the century. The common vision of mankind to work together to stop what seems unstoppable in this time of consumerism came into a serious backlash when the Trump Administration of the USA withdrew itself from COP21. But you need not its way to a new beginning. COVID-19: What just happened? Figure 1: Model simulations by the IPCC estimate that Earth will warm between The COVID-19 global pandemic two and six degrees Celsius over the next century, depending on how fast carbon has raged the world in a matter of dioxide emissions grow. Scenarios that assume that people will burn more and more fossil fuel provide the estimates in the top end of the temperature range, in the Wuhan region of China in while scenarios that assume that greenhouse gas emissions will grow slowly November 2019. Before it could be give lower temperature predictions. The orange line provides an estimate of global temperatures if greenhouse gases stayed at year 2000 levels. became our Achilles’ Heel as the virus travelled across the world; emerging a resurgence. Ebola Virus Disease safe, but due to high socio- in major cities and then spreading (EVD), Marburg, Lassa Fever, MERS economic vulnerability, we are as to secondary centres and the and SARS, Nipah, Rift Valley Fever, vulnerable as developed nations or countryside. The global healthcare and now COVID-19, are just a few maybe more. The melting ice due system collapsed in no time and among them. Other old diseases like to global warming is also one of the we witnessed an event which no Malaria and Dengue are regaining major concerns among researchers. generation should ever see again. pace and affecting millions due to It may release an unknown disease We have already lost more than 7.5 the global rise in temperature as buried inside the ice millions of lakh people in less than a year. Thus, years ago. It sounds like a fairy tale we started speculating about the global warming-induced climate but who knows what is hidden in the cause as I stated in the beginning. I more friendly and favourable. uncertainty of the future. don’t want to go into the discussion Warmer temperatures not only cause that COVID-19 was transmitted to these kinds of mosquitoes as well as What do we do? humans from animals accidentally or rodents to breed rapidly but they also bring new species with more serious ` someone or it was just an accident at diseases. Mosquitoes are now found an unauthorized lab. We don’t know to be breeding in higher altitudes in for sure, but if you have ever studied areas previously alien to them. You Category 5 tropical cyclone – biological warfare, you would know might have experienced it yourself if Amphan, and now many States are that a virus once released comes you have ever visited Mussoorie. This facing the hardships brought about back to your own country. Well, we hill station was considered mosquito- free during the colonial period. have been bombarded by one after another disaster. And winter sequence of events that happened in Various studies published in leading is coming. We are not just facing a Wuhan. journals concluded that COVID-19 single disaster but multiple hazards is also very responsive to climatic at the same time. It is said that Climate Change and conditions. Its survival rate is very we study history to learn from our COVID-19 related? high in low temperature and low mistakes and make sure we do not Some 30 new diseases have humidity and very low survival repeat them. What we learn from emerged over the last 25 years and rate in high temperature and high this crisis holds the key to the future some old diseases that had been humidity. This makes most of the under control are now witnessing developing countries comparatively of human existence.

Aug-Sep | 2020 41 System Practitioner’s Guide to Business Impact Analysis - A Synopsis

Priti Sikdar, FCA, CISA, CISM, CRISC, ISO 27001 LA, BS 25999 LA, PRINCE 2 (FC), has over 25 years of experience in the risk, audit and assurance sector which includes industry and profession, audit, internal audit, IT audit, compliance and risk assessments.

Unprecedented and lingering otherwise – whether in the country pandemics and the ever- or other countries, daily. The need { for better resources is increasing. threats from cyberspace An integrated approach based on \ cooperation and understanding is necessary to deal with a disaster of ~ ‰ this magnitude. Chain of events following and its viability is at stake. ‰ the pandemic word! • International travel was one of • It is no longer a disaster recovery had gone on holiday out of plan. It is a living document India were stuck for prolonged Priti Sikdar that gives early warning periods. signals, predicts incidents and • A large number of migrant safeguards against attack. • The lockdown put restrictions on local travel. Offshore projects workers returned to their • It embeds knowledge and were stalled. hometowns. awareness in resilience and • Since vaccine development is resorts to an adequate level • Local transport and logistics complex, the most optimistic of testing on various possible suffered, and essential time of launch of vaccine is not scenarios to understand what commodities were not before this year-end. action needs to be taken if the deliverable. Sites like Amazon, scenario happens in reality. BigBasket, etc., could not • An atmosphere of uncertainty deliver as delivery persons were prevails worldwide and the • It demonstrates how to build a unavailable since they were also impact from the disaster is customized control framework restricted to travel due to the manifold. imposed lockdown mandated criteria, business resilience by the government. The catastrophic impact needs and internal monitoring for the effectiveness of controls. • COVID-19 is an example of a of the pandemic disaster which had no precedent • Financial impact from cancelled Today, COVID-19 has hit almost all the countries of the world. We deals. • A large number of people are being updated on the statistics • Inability to meet commitments around the globe lost their lives. of rising cases, recoveries, and on delivery.

42 Aug-Sep | 2020 System

• Inability to produce at full capacity due to non-availability of labour and raw materials. • Test the capability of national leaders to control the pandemic and affected people. • Responsiveness of people to deal with this unique disaster varies. • Scarcity of infrastructure to house patients, medical equipment, and in some cases, medicines was deeply felt. If we go into a root-cause analysis, ` new pandemic, never heard of before, and never contemplated or planned for. It is time, therefore, to give serious thought to disaster and increase our resilience. We need to educate people to follow all State and local municipal authorities’ rules concerning health, hygiene and lockdown. Quarantine concept must be accepted and followed.

Above all, the community as a The measures we take today will be to gauge peripheral impacts is whole should rise to the occasion elements of our plan for COVID-19 necessary to prevent disasters and help and contribute in every tomorrow. Every incident brings in future. way to the neediest. Self-discipline us closer to its resolution; hence, ______should be strictly followed to keep doing a business impact for the ourselves and our surroundings business and a people impact (This book by Priti Sikdar illustrates safe. the importance of business impact analysis which covers risk assessment, and moves towards a better understanding of the business compliance, legal and regulatory landscape and the need for business continuity. The book provides ample charts, checklists, templates and collecting, analyzing, collating and mapping of organizational controls for business continuity. It is a ‘must-have’ for practitioners who design resilience in systems and helps professionals build a control framework tailored for an enterprise that covers best practices and relevant standards applicable to the enterprise.)

Aug-Sep | 2020 43 Perspective

Resetting the Planet after COVID-19: Treating our Wastewater Effectively via DTS Technology Sangeeta Venkatesh is a Sanitation and Waste Management Consultant. She is currently Lead -Corporate Communications at Ecoparadigm Pvt Ltd. - an environmental engineering company. She had also led the solid waste management group of a citizen initiative, spending hours working with communities as well as Corporate India in formulating guidelines and methods on how to manage their waste.

On April 16, researchers from The study inferred to the obvious The University of Queensland that people infected with the virus (UQ) and Australia’s National could have shed it through faeces Science Agency - CSIRO and the same was traced in sewage announced that they had water. This study indicates that successfully demonstrated analysing wastewater for SARS- the presence of SARS- CoV2 could serve as an early CoV2, the virus which leads warning tool in unaffected areas. to the disease COVID-19 But this also means that untreated in Australian untreated wastewater can become a source of wastewater (sewage). This spread of the disease. \ In earlier studies, scientists have \ found disturbing amounts of from the Netherlands and the antibiotics and antibiotic-resistant United States of America had bacteria in both freshwater and to say. A statement from the wastewater in the last decade. In Director of UQ’s Queensland an article in the Horizon magazine Alliance for Environmental (The EU Research and Innovation Health Sciences revealed magazine), Professor Willem Sangeeta Venkatesh that samples of wastewater van Schaik, of the University of samples were analysed for Birmingham is quoted to have said untreated. This also makes its way \ that one way in which antibiotic into city canals whose water is used of the virus using RT-PCR residues reach the environment is to irrigate urban farms. Hence, analysis, and the presence when people excrete them in their urban farming that is supposed ''130 \ faeces and urine. In many poor to be a boon can also become a wastewater samples was then and developing nations, 80 per bane. The load in wastewater that \ ( cent of the sewage is discharged comes out of hospital sewerage is (~

44 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

The DTS, currently 0.8 Million litres per day (800000 litres), was safe for reuse for flushing and gardening. The technology does not aeration or mechanical agitation, thus virtually eliminating the generation of bio-aerosols

another potent source of antibiotics and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. a unique Decentralised Wastewater What is DTS? Now with SARS-CoV2, we know Treatment System, known as DTS in The DTS technology is a combination that leaving wastewater untreated is 2009. of different wastewater treatment a huge risk. The current disaster is The DTS, currently 0.8 Million litres technologies that cascades as big enough - can we afford another per day (800000 litres), was safe for separate modules into a full system one? More importantly, do we have that achieves the required quality a solution to avert another crisis? The technology does not aeration or mechanical agitation, thus various purposes. domestic sewage are treated in virtually eliminating the generation A DTS is a combination of different conventional wastewater treatment of bio-aerosols. What’s more, it has wastewater treatment technologies plants. These plants occupy a large saved the hospital a whopping Rs cascaded in modules to a full amount of space besides consuming 2.70 Crore in water savings too. system, to achieve the required electrical energy and chemicals for The Patent Pending DTS technology their treatment. Aeration is one of was developed by a Bangalore- reuse purpose. The series of the steps in the treatment process. based, environmental engineering • Several researchers, including those company called Paradigm from Vienna Institute of Technology Environmental Strategies (P) Ltd or makes sure that the treated water and Arizona State University, simply called Ecoparadigm. indicate that the aeration process generates bio-aerosols in the vicinity of the plant, which may carry infectious pathogens and virus. The risks are more pronounced in the case of wastewater from the hospital or quarantined centres. Hence, the STP operators are required to be vigilant and exercise caution during the operation. Use of PPEs especially masks, gloves and goggles are imperative. However, St. Martha’s Hospital in the city of Bengaluru is a study in contrast. The 550-bed hospital catering to 250,000 outpatients and 22,000 inpatients per annum implemented

Aug-Sep | 2020 45 Perspective

free of antibiotics or pathogen that Bengaluru - a project that won may cause disease. the company the National Water Award for the year 2018 under the best Resident Welfare Association The first part of the cascade (RWA) category. These annual modules, performing extensive awards have been instituted by the wastewater Stabilisation in terms always consists of three Union Ministry of Water Resources, of organic pollution. Different River Development and Ganga specific anaerobic modules, options of additional modules can Rejuvenation, Government of be added for further clearing and performing extensive India, and carry a citation and a treating water as per the targeted memento and a cash prize of Rs wastewater Stabilisation in Two lakh. The project was selected terms of organic pollution Ecological and Economic for adopting an innovative concept Advantages: “The technology has to treat sewage to a high degree of both ecological and economic purity and permitting clean water to advantages,” says Pravinjith KP, replenish the lake. Managing Director, Ecoparadigm. Energy Requirement: What is Since DTS is an on-site solution is positive and the absence of power also interesting is the minimal use (decentralised or semi-centralised), of energy in the system. The core the treated water can be reused performance of the system. This, as modules of a DTS use anaerobic locally for different purposes we see, prevents CO2 emission and processes for stabilisation of saves non-renewable resources too. the wastewater, which require cooling and heating, washing, no process energy. Since the Construction: To construct a DTS, and groundwater recharge. The DTS is placed closed to where locally sourced material is generally technology minimises the total water the wastewater is produced, the used which avoids transportation consumption and also additional costs. The civil engineering design costs for supply, piping and driven generally by gravity. The focuses on the durability and a fuss- pumping up into overhead tanks DTS minimises the requirement of free operation for decades. Since and allowing keeping green areas process energy for the wastewater the anaerobic core modules require on the premises. DTS technology treatment; instead, it produces no aeration and desludging of the works mostly independent from the energy in the form of biogas in its anaerobic tanks is required only power supply and daily surveillance, anaerobic modules. This biogas once in two years, maintenance treating the wastewater steadily. can be tapped and used directly This technology was also used for for cooking or lighting or converted than conventional STPs. the rehabilitation and rejuvenation into electricity via gas-generator. Wastewater – A Resource: of Kundalahalli Lake in suburban Hence, the energy balance of a DTS What’s more, the mineralised sludge can be co-composted with organic material or dewatered for further reuse as fertiliser and soil conditioner in agriculture or garden. The technology drives home the point that wastewater is a resource that contains water, nutrients and some energy. Pravinjith signs off saying, “The DTS technology allows an extensive separation and subsequent reuse of these three components and is, therefore, a technical option for ecological/ sustainable sanitation.” Indeed, when COVID-19 is done and dusted, there is an urgent need to look at the treatment of waste- water as an integral part of the sanitation narrative in the country.

46 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective Lightning Disaster in Bihar – The Growing Threat and its Mitigation

Col Sanjay Srivastava Chairman, Climate Resilient Observing Systems Promotion Council Convener, Lightning Resilient India Campaign

It was June 24, 2020. The CROPC The Department through its and New Delhi and was conveyed team on Weather Basics was newly released app “Indravajra” to the Government of Bihar. For analyzing the impending punctual advocated hard and transmitted as last-mile connectivity, a state-of- and second wave of monsoon many messages and alerts to the the-art mobile app – Damini - was and its impact in Bihar and people while also reminding them also made available. surroundings. The high-speed not to ignore the Red Alert by IMD. While talking to a villager in intense cloud movement was set to Other authorities were stunned Darbhanga, I asked him: “Jha Ji bring heavy rain along with a huge as their SMS and Doordarshan – ki bhelai, atna atna maut bijuria bolt of lightning. A Red Alert was programmes did not reach the se ki lakhe bhelai?” He replied: issued by the India Meteorological victims. Few pulled up shocks “Ki bolbay, Sir. Ahan ke sab patta Department on June 23, 2020, and started running webinars for chhai ki kon badrawa se bijuria through a special letter. In rural Mukhiyas. NGOs tried but found girtai aur kaun se nai. Lekin paniya Bihar, when the COVID-19 themselves in a tight spot due itna badhiya halai ki pura gaon restrictions had forced the entire to corona ridden resource crisis me khete – bagichwa me daud gel workforce to stay indoors, it was and limitations. Overall, few were chhai.” I asked if he has the mobile an opportunity for villagers to praising the early warnings and app - Indravajra. Jha Ji replied: few were talking of awareness. “Saheb, ek dugo tadit chalak their much-loved farming - totally But the poor farmers in agriculture lahwawe se thik bhetai.” charmed off by the heavy cloud and rains, but unaware of inherent risks orchards rejoicing in the rains In Bihar, a sizeable number of lightning. June 25 came like a were hit by the thunderbolts and of deaths are reported due to hurricane with low-cloud cladding lightning. The entire strike pattern lightning strikes every 4-5 days; like a carpet from North Bihar to was well forecasted by IMD Patna South Bihar. By afternoon, we came to know that lightning had struck „ in East Champaran, six in Siwan, and followed by a similar number of deaths in districts down south in Jamui, Nawada, Aurangabad. 21 districts, 97 deaths. June 26 added more to the casualty taking the toll to 113 in two days. The Hon’ble Chief Minister expressed deep shock and ordered ex- gratia payment of Rs 4 lakh as compensation to each victim; to which the Disaster Management Department promptly complied. Figure 1: Lightning deaths data from 2001-2020

Aug-Sep | 2020 47 Perspective

Minister has been very prompt in expressing his condolences and so are Disaster Management authorities in paying compensation or stressing on the Indravajra app usage. Since April 1, 2020, Bihar has lost more than 200 lives. Lightning deaths have become a routine affair. Such deaths are nothing new. Since 2015, every year pre-monsoon to early monsoon, deaths due to lightning in Bihar range from 125- | years indicate a sharp rise due to lightning as evident from the table given below: Ex-gratia Compensations - There is compensation paid at the rate of Rs 4 lakh per victim as per SDRF norms laid down by the Ministry Figure 3: Categories of deaths of Home Affairs, Government of India. The amount paid by the Government of Bihar since 2015 increase from 2010 onwards, with of the previous year indicate that for lightning death is Rs 64.64 a peak of 514 in 2017. during pre-monsoon to initial the monsoon, more farmers are victims crore at an average of more than Categories of Deaths - It is worth Rs 12.48 crore (Figure 2). This mentioning that majority of these excludes compensation paid to victims are the rural folks - either or orchards, or their huts. The later other losses like animals, poultries, • part of the year, in September, a majority die while taking shelter being damaged due to lightning. under trees; least realizing the under tall trees on inside their huts. inherent risks of lightning. In the We tried to analyse the overall Lightning Resilient India cause which is depicted below:- Campaign – A joint initiative analysis of Lightning Resilient India Campaign, victims’ categories in of Climate Resilient Observing Types of lightning strikes While analysing, it was observed that lightning fatalities in Bihar are more due to lateral strikes (54%) than direct strikes (34%). A sizeable fatality is also due to indirect strikes - strikes over kutcha huts (12%). Bihar is a plain basin Figure 2: Details of ex gratia compensation paid to Lightning victims and rich fertile land. The State has north of the Ganges. The fertile Bihar vary differently from the rest Systems Promotion Council land is spread over hundreds of of the country. Let us look at these (CROPC) and IMD, Ministry of acres called Chanvars. They are categories:- Earth Science, carried out a devoid of trees. The other reason detailed analysis of these deaths. Circumstances of for the decrease in tree cover is If you closely look at the last 20 due to the division of land; hence lightning victims struck by lightning land holdings have become small. per the National Crime Records As a result, trees have been cut en Bureau (NCRB) has seen a sharp The recent fatalities and those masse to use the fertile land to more

48 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

CROPC, IMD and World Vision India. The Annual Lightning Report 2019-2020 reveals that during the year April 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020, Bihar has had more than 1.71 lakh strikes were a result of convected cloud formation, which in turn, cause lightning which then led to 221 fatalities.

Lightning strikes count between April 2019 and March 2020 Figure 4: Circumstances of lightning victims during struck by lightning Though lightning strikes throughout the year, it mainly starts in February-March. Kaalbaisakhi in April brings in serious strikes followed by a reduced intensity in May. June-July has very severe strikes and maximum casualty takes place during this timeframe. Though September has the highest strike, there are lesser deaths compared to June-July. This may be because, in June-July, farmers mango orchards. September being Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes Figure 5 : Type of Lightning strikes causing deaths took place 1,71,049 times during the said period. The entire State yields of crops and vegetables. assigned to cause the increase of is prone to lightning with varying lightning and subsequent fatalities. degrees of severity. Minimum Lightning in Bihar - It is worth analyzing the research- '\ based action undertaken as part 1000 lightning strikes/ 400 square pattern of the Lightning Resilient India kilometres were mapped. It also There may be many reasons Campaign 2019-2021 launched reveals that the southern and on March 26, 2019, jointly by eastern parts of Bihar are in the severe/extreme lightning-prone zone while the rest of Bihar is in the high lightning-prone zone.

Lightning safety and roads to mitigation Lightning mitigation has a process and it is designed based on the Lightning Risk Assessment. Exposure risk to lightning needs to be worked out based on Figure 6: Lightning strikes distribution over Bihar

Aug-Sep | 2020 49 Perspective

CROPC, who is the sole authority, can provide required data to the State/districts and can assist in the mitigation plan. Any mitigation carried out without the measure of exposure risks is like treating a bone fracture without doing an ¡ It is recommended that the Government of Bihar undertake microzonation of the lightning map prepared as given in Figure 7 above. It is pertinent to mention that CROPC is the only organization in India who is carrying out such microzonation and measurement of exposure risks. Figure 7: Month wise lightning strikes from 01 April 2019 to 31 Mitigation of lightning square kilometre as elaborated in has to be designed for high hazard has many IS-2309 or IS-62305. Based on conglomeration areas, community aspects which align with the measure of expected exposure centre, village market, school, Sendai Frameworks for risks, the number of lightning colleges, Panchayat Bhawan, Disaster Risk Reduction and even every single household. (SFDRR) as mentioned below: Understanding the risk of lightning: Lightning is a needs to be understood by all stakeholders including government functionaries, technocrats, CSOs/ NGOs and the community. A citizen science approach is required for the same. Lightning is a unique hazard where the hazard strikes in the twinkling of an eye, leaving no time for a reaction. The community needs to be trained and reaction to lightning should become second nature. A huge campaign on lightning awareness, education and capacity building is the only answer. Investing in lightning risk- reduction for resilience: A comprehensive lightning risk- reduction program is needed for Bihar. This should be designed by professional and technically-sound institutions. A Lightning Action Plan Figure 8: Lightning exposure risk map of Bihar based on lightning strikes 01 as prescribed by the NDMA should Apr 2019 to 31 Mar 2020 be included in this.

50 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

Figure 9: Lightning protection and safety measures

Strengthening lightning risk Committee and review its State Recommendations governance to manage lightning building bye-laws, both for rural Lightning is an avoidable death. risks: Lightning risk has to be and urban areas, and come out It is possible to avoid so using mainstreamed into the governance with proper guidelines in this process to earn institutionalized regard. based approach. The technical and lasting dividends. Early Jharkhand, the neighbouring knowledge available shall be warning is the main input in this State of Bihar, is an exemplary professionally analyzed in the local part. IMD’s EW is effective, high- example when it comes to creating context of each village, districts value, actionable and incredible. lightning-safe schools, hospitals, and State. A paradigm shift in It must be utilized in lightning Panchayats, villages and cities. approach is the need of the day. risk governance proactively. The Since 2014, there has been no There is enough early warning impact-based forecasts from death at Babadham - the holy city. available from IMD, ISRO and IMD should form part of all This is worth emulating by Bihar. CROPC. In this era of technology, administrative advisories issued by when all parameters like lightning the State/districts. Farmers, school children, cattle strikes, timing, strength, threat, grazers and animals are major Enhance preparedness to safety, etc., are well-known, it is victims of lightning. However, the lightning through an effective ironic to lose lives, livestock and affordability of lightning protection response: A list of measures needs livelihood due to it, while at the devices as per IS-63202 is a to be prepared. same time, waste government major challenge. To overcome revenue. The strategy needs to Lightning protection devices: this, a similar device based on IS- be focused on community-centric The culmination of lightning risk 2309 - the Conventional Lightning mitigation. Instead of spending Conductor, also called as Franklin more than Rs 12.5 crore per year with the installation of lightning Rod, has been designed by CROPC, in compensation, there should be protection devices. The National and a drive has been undertaken measures undertaken to create Building Code (NBC) 2016 to install the same in all agriculture lightning-resilient infrastructures adopted by Bihar lays down IEC- like safe Panchayats, safe school, 63202 based on the lightning be made from local materials and safe Kisan Chaupals, safe temples/ conductor, which is a passive it is portable - a farmer can carry device. The Government of Bihar it wherever he is physically present should constitute a Technical

Aug-Sep | 2020 51 Alert India Must Act Now to Avert Climate Disaster

Joydeep Gupta South Asia Director, The Third Pole Joydeep has been writing on environmental issues ever since he covered the Bhopal Disaster in 1984. For his contributions to environmental journalism, he won the 2012 Green Globe Award at the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit.

# S \ that unless steps are taken, between RCP4.5. “The frequency of summer comprehensive study of 2070 and 2099, the average (April–June) heat waves over India ‘Climate Change: Impacts temperature over India will rise by is projected to be three to four and Forecasts’, paints a grim approximately 4.4 degrees relative times higher by the end of the 21st picture of greenhouse gas to the recent past (1976–2005 century under the RCP8.5 scenario, emissions it not controlled average). as compared to the 1976–2005 soon. With industry and baseline period,” it adds. This is a scenario caused by high transport restarting after GHG emissions that would increase the lockdown forced by the the heat on the earth’s surface by Hotter Himalayas COVID-19 pandemic, the 8.5 watts per square metre. Called best chance for India and the The IITM experts have calculated RCP8.5, this is the worst-case world right now is to control that the Hindu Kush Himalayas scenario used by climate modellers greenhouse gas (GHG) (HKH) experienced a temperature worldwide. In a medium GHG emissions. Failure will mean rise of about 1.3 degrees between emissions scenario, called RCP4.5, a country with worse heat 1951 and 2014. Several areas of the average temperature in India waves, droughts, cloudbursts, HKH have experienced a declining would rise by 2.7 degrees in the trend in snowfall and also retreat of last three decades of this century. coastline, according to the glaciers in recent decades, though Even before that, during 2040- * S \ some glaciers in the high-elevation 2069, the scientists say India’s comprehensive report on Karakoram Range have escaped average temperature would rise by current climate change this retreat due to more winter 2 degrees in a medium emissions impacts and future scenarios snowfall. scenario, and by 2.4 degrees in a up to the end of the century. high emissions scenario. Alarmingly, the experts say, “By the end of the 21st century, the annual Prepared by experts at the Pune- Despite all countries, including mean surface temperature over based Indian Institute of Tropical India, making pledges under the HKH is projected to increase by Meteorology (IITM), the report says 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, about 5.2 degrees Celsius under that India’s average temperature current emissions are taking the the RCP8.5 scenario.” That will rose by around 0.7 degrees Celsius world to the worst-case scenario, accelerate glacier retreat, which between 1901 and 2018. It would even though other development have risen more if the sky had not pathways are not only available of northern India will become been obscured by a pollution haze. but economically more attractive more uncertain in non-monsoon But that is no reason to allow the in the medium and long term. The months when such water is crucial pollution that kills millions every rise in average temperature means for millions of people. People year. Instead, there is every reason the hottest days will be hotter. The living in the Himalayas are already to control GHG emissions as well report forecasts that by the end suffering as springs dry up. That as other pollutions. The report, of the century, hottest days will be trend will also accelerate with the Assessment of Climate Change 5.5 degrees hotter in the RCP8.5 average temperature going up by over the Indian Region, predicts scenario, and 4.7 degrees hotter in this extent.

52 Aug-Sep | 2020 Alert

India’s average temperature would have risen more in the past century if it were not for high air pollution.

Monsoon Connection 2011 relative to 1951–1980) and an increase in the frequency of more intense wet spells during the storms due to climate change, but The heating over land is mirrored summer monsoon season… Over the Indian scientists have found no by the heating over the sea. “Sea Central India, the frequency of daily evidence of it. However, they have surface temperature (SST) of the precipitation extremes with rainfall found that the strong cyclones are tropical Indian Ocean has risen intensities exceeding 150 mm per getting stronger, as was the recent by 1 degree Celsius on average day increased by about 75% during case of Cyclone Amphan. Overall, during 1951–2015, markedly 1950–2015.” The report predicts climate change has already made higher than the global average SST an increase in this variability. India hotter and drier since the warming of 0.7 degrees Celsius, This means a worsening cycle of middle of the 20th century, with over the same period,” the report says. It forecasts that this trend will records this increase in droughts rising seas, stronger cyclones and continue throughout this century. and predicts that there will be a change in the monsoon pattern. All this affects the June-September even more in the highest emissions And now, “Human-induced climate monsoon on which so many Indian scenario. change is expected to continue farmers depend. Global climate apace during the 21st century,” models forecast a rainfall increase, Land and Sea the scientists fear. With IITM but “the summer monsoon being a part of India’s Ministry precipitation (June to September) The report records that around of Earth Sciences, which also over India has declined by around India, the sea rose by 3.3 mm per supervises the India Meteorological 6% from 1951 to 2015, with year between 1993 and 2017. The Department, the report’s immediate notable decreases over the Indo- scientists forecast that even in an recommendation is to have more Gangetic Plains and the Western RCP4.5 scenario, by the end of the weather stations across the country. Ghats,” the report points out. The century, the seas around India will reason, it says, is air pollution. Not rise by 300 mm from the average On a wider scale, the report says, only is it raining less during the level between 1986 and 2005. “The rapid changes in India’s rainy season, but the rainfall is also This means a larger area along the climate projected by climate more uneven. The scientists note, coast will be affected by storms and models will place increasing “There has been a shift in the recent saltwater intrusion. stress on the country’s natural period toward more frequent dry ecosystems, agricultural output, spells (27% higher during 1981– Global climate models predict and freshwater resources, while

Aug-Sep | 2020 53 Alert

Cyclones are becoming stronger, as the destruction brought by Cyclone Amphan demonstrated recently. also causing escalating damage to of indoor temperatures, water Responding to the report, Anjal infrastructure. These portend serious conservation and rainwater Prakash, Research Director and consequences for the country’s harvesting, groundwater regulation, Adjunct Associate Professor at biodiversity, food, water and energy reversing land degradation, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, security, and public health. In the reduction in food and water Indian School of Business, and a absence of rapid, informed and far- wastage, waste segregation and co-author of various IPCC reports, reaching mitigation and adaptation recycling, low-impact urban measures, the impacts of climate development, expansion of urban welcome step in inducing science change are likely to pose profound green spaces and urban farming, into the policymaking process. I am challenges to sustaining the pollution control, increasing the country’s rapid economic growth, area under irrigation and improving policymaking or informing policy and achieving the Sustainable which will help Indian populations Development Goals (SDGs) use, forest conservation and affected by the changes in climatic adopted by the UN Member States proactive afforestation, construction conditions.” in 2015.” Detailing these impacts in of coastal embankments and the report’s concluding section, the Navroz K Dubash of the Centre mangrove restoration, improvement experts say, “It is crucial to make for Policy Research, also an IPCC in disaster response, phasing vulnerability assessment central to co-author, said, “The report makes out fossil fuels and transition long-term planning for developing clear climate change is not an adaptation and mitigation abstract idea; its effects are with us expansion of walking, bicycling strategies.” They list the steps that already in India and are expected and public transport infrastructure, individuals and policymakers can to accelerate. This report will and carbon taxation.” take to reduce GHG emissions, control climate change impacts and All these are doable, have policy conversation on how India been done, and have proved can and should prepare for a economically viable. What they climate-disrupted Indian future.” Points of Action need is countrywide scaling up, The list includes “passive reduction which is dependent on political will.

54 Aug-Sep | 2020

Perspective Frequent Tremors In and Around the NCR Mukat Lal Sharma Dean (Finance and Planning), Professor, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee

Since the NCR is made up of the sensitivity of the public at considering alternative views. We different geologies and is large to the looming seismic risk are trying to look into the general surrounded by different strata in this densely-populated region. perception vis-a-vis science as the including the Indo-Gangetic One of the general and foremost subject lingers between the general queries includes the effect of this psychology of the layman and Plains, the Rajasthan fabric spurt on future seismicity with a requisite engineering solutions. of various rock types and tag whether this is an ultimatum We will further investigate these ridges joining in its vicinity, for any damaging earthquake anomalies, if they are, using some it will be interesting to look in this region in the near future. new ideas which are recently being into the changes in stress The common notion of people coined for such seismicity which patterns and atmospheric propels us to diligently think of the falls beyond the classical theories. weather conditions. The physical phenomenon giving rise To look into the present-day increase in seismicity in and to earthquakes. The information seismicity, older records need to be around the NCR region may about geological and tectonic setup investigated. In general, earthquake either has not been dug out or is not or may not be considered as a records of the past are scanty the available to quantify earthquake precursory phenomenon due world over, which is also true for risks in the NCR region, which in to the absence of advance the earthquake occurrences around turn also affect the interpretations ` modelling of this region. given by the scientists. The scientists, considered from ancient literature in general, tend to downplay the where Varaha Mihira, who lived The recent spurt in seismicity around earthquake risk as it seems to be in the 5th-6th century, mentioned the National Capital Region (NCR) convenient to maintain the status Northern India as the felt region of has raised concerns in general from quo. But, science only grows severe earthquakes. However, some the society and has heightened by addressing challenges, by records were only available after an

56 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

earthquake which occurred on 15th July 1720 near Sohna (Haryana), about 60 km of SE of Delhi, having a magnitude 6.5, in which walls of the fortress and many houses in Delhi were destroyed. Another earthquake of a magnitude of 7.0 was reported to have occurred in the Mathura Region in 1803 (Oldham, 1883). The Gurgaon earthquake occurred near Sohna on 27th August 1960, with a magnitude of 6.0. On 28th July 1994, an earthquake with a magnitude of 4 caused minor damage to the minarets of Jama Masjid. On 28th February 2001 and 28th April 2001, Delhi experienced two small earthquakes of magnitudes 4.0 and 3.8, respectively. Delhi and its environs have also been affected by sources in the Himalayas. Geographically, the region is located on folded crustal ramp represented by basement rocks of Delhi Super Group, bounded by two regional faults viz., NNE-SSW across the ‘fore deep’ is Delhi-Sargodha Ridge (DSR) which Mahendragarh-Dehradun Sub juxtaposed to the Himalayan Thrust ` Surface Fault (MDSSF) in the west Belt. In addition to many smaller by basins on either side, viz., the and the Great Boundary Fault (GBF) local faults in this region, one of Sahaspur Basin in the north and in East Delhi. The ramp trending the important structural elements the Bikaner Basin in the south-west. of the belt is NW-SE trending Most of the earthquakes reported in

Aug-Sep | 2020 57 Perspective

time to time in this region. These exercises are either carried out for the seismic microzonation of the region or to estimate the ground motion for earthquake-resistant design of engineering structures. Generally, the seismicity is high at the tectonic plate boundaries, but the earthquakes which occur far away from the plate boundaries, i.e., intraplate, are, however, an enigma to seismologists. Although they are responsible for only a small fraction of the world’s stress-energy release (about less than 10 per cent), the risk is higher due to the same being in well-developed areas. Continental intraplate earthquakes this region may be associated with wealth of information suggests have been explained basically by these features. that NCR is sitting over a dynamic reactivation of pre-existing zones of weakness, stress concentration, Instrumental studies of seismicity system of earthquake occurrence or both. A new school of thought around Delhi region could be made in the Intraplate region. The assumes that seismic activity can possible only after setting up of the heterogeneities and crisscrossing be triggered by stress changes of a Delhi Ridge Observatory in 1960. of the faults and lineaments make few kiloPascals (kPa) over periods Besides, the two-component Wood the upper portion weak. This means of tens of seconds, which of course, Anderson seismographs were also that it may not be able to sustain is not true for bigger earthquakes. installed to determine the magnitude very high strains thus resulting in Further investigations are required of the local earthquakes. To monitor big earthquakes. Therefore, a limit in this direction and it will be of tremor activity that occurred during to the magnitude can be easily interest to investigate whether kPa- the period 1963-64, mobile placed, which may not go above range stress changes over periods seismic observatories were set up moderate earthquakes, which is of hours-to-days that are associated at Rohtak, Sonepat, and Sohna. also validated by the deterministic with changes in barometric pressure A broadband seismograph was and/or probabilistic seismic hazard installed at Delhi Ridge Observatory exercises being carried out from in December 1999. Now Delhi has a seismological network deployed by the National Center for Seismology. The deployment of the instrument increases the detectability of the earthquakes in terms of lower magnitudes, which means that earthquakes of lower magnitude which took place earlier and were not recorded, are now being recorded by the network and reported. The NCR has felt more than 15 earthquakes in the last two months ranging from magnitude 1.5 to 4.7. It may not be called as an earthquake swarm, since the sources may be considered as independent in this region, which is sometimes considered as a precursory phenomenon. A

58 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

Further extending this, and since we are dealing with almost very shallow microearthquakes, the reactivation may be triggered due to any of the reasons, including tectonic forces in the region, the anthropogenic process like rainfall, hurricanes or atmospheric pressure. And maybe, the climate variability, which is relatively of a lesser return period than the climate change, attributed sometimes, when you get a spurt in seismicity like the one in the NCR. When an earthquake is about to occur, the earth-crust is in a state of unstable equilibrium and any disturbance which exceeds some critical amount may cause the breakdown. Earthquakes can be promoted or inhibited by surprisingly small stress perturbations. The most commonly proposed stress transfer fault occurs only when the acting Gangetic Plains, the Rajasthan mechanisms include permanent driving shear stress is more than the fabric of various rock types and stress redistribution caused by fault shear resistance. ridges joining in its vicinity, it will slip (i.e., static stress), radiated Since the NCR is made up of different be interesting to look into the seismic waves (i.e., dynamic geologies and is surrounded by changes in stress patterns and stress) and post-seismic stress different strata, including the Indo- atmospheric weather conditions. redistribution. The slip along the The increase in seismicity in and around the NCR region may or may not be considered as a precursory phenomenon due to the absence of an advance modelling of this region. It may be attributed to minor adjustments in the dynamic system of faults in this region. The occurrence of higher magnitude earthquakes in the near future cannot be negated based on the present scenario. The seismicity can be attributed to the classical earthquake occurrence modelling using the Gutenberg- Richter (GR) law or the Poissonian process of earthquake occurrence. But we must also investigate it using newer ideas. Nonetheless, we must use this opportunity to look into the vulnerability of the existing built environment and step towards an earthquake-resilient society in future. It is pertinent to refer to the boldness in using engineering solutions for structures like the Taiwanese 101 Tower and the nuclear power plants built on the Taipei Basin near a mega source of an earthquake like the Chi Chi in Taiwan. .

Aug-Sep | 2020 59 Perspective Invocation of DM Act, 2005 in COVID-19 Management in India

Raman Kumar An international humanitarian and development professional, Raman has worked with Oxfam International at the Asia region, Care India, Sphere India, and several disaster management authorities in India at the national and state level.

Extraordinary times require of human rights, and possible social extraordinary measures. The discontent and unrest. combat the spread of COVID-19: biological and health disaster COVID-19 is threatening humanity, management frameworks continued supply of water for in the current DM Act Global action and solidarity are handwashing: Given the fact that \~ 4 crucial. The world is only as strong quite a limited percentage of the legislation must be drawn Indian population has access to to handle such nationwide running water for handwashing, disaster situations where Globally, as of 2:46 pm CEST, the preventive action of doing so the Centre, State and local August 9, 2020, there have been regularly is a big challenge. The authorities have adequate œ situation is much worse in urban \~ COVID-19, including 722,285 slums and areas populated by deaths, reported WHO. After the marginalized, poor, Dalit and Background excluded communities. was reported on January 30 in COVID-19 is having an Kerala, the pandemic has reached unprecedented impact on all | countries, both in terms of including 43,379 deaths as on the sanitizer, etc.: Once the access to promoting the scaling of public above date. health preparedness and response are getting scarcer for the people, and protection of vulnerable COVID-19 and its ensuring the supply of materials is populations, and in terms of implications in India requiring mitigation of broader for people from the lower-income social and economic impacts. Mentioning it as a phase of ‘Very level. Serious Crisis’, Prime Minister of While all countries need to respond India, Mr Narendra Modi called for to COVID-19, those with existing R maintain ‘Social Distancing’ without humanitarian crises are particularly COVID-19 pandemic. During his compromising basic minimum vulnerable and less equipped address to the nation on March 19, requirements of living: As already and able to do so. Humanitarian 2020, the Prime Minister requested mentioned by the Prime Minister needs may also occur in other all citizens of India to combat the of India, staying home is a very countries as a result of excessive effective strategy for preventing the pressure on health systems and COVID-19 pandemic is far more spread of COVID-19. Given that the overall delivery of essential devastating than the World Wars! only 23% of the Indian population services as well as secondary effects is engaged in the organized sector, on employment, the economy, Despite all positive wills and R mobility, the rule of law, protection intentions, some very crucial aspects be a viable option, the majority

60 Aug-Sep | 2020 Perspective

establishments and institutions, places of worship, etc., to avoid crowding and to ensure social distancing. Simultaneously, they services, telecommunications, petrol pumps, manufacturing of essential commodities and unhindered supply of food, medical equipment, etc. First responders / government suspected patients are not adequately equipped with Personal Protective Kits (PPK), essential to the from the business or unorganized Invocation of DM Act handling, evacuation and isolation 2005 in the management manage resources for sustenance. of COVID-19 raincoats cannot be enough. Even getting online curfew passes often the poor, Dalits and other excluded In 2005, the Disaster Management requires an invisible hand to push communities, have very limited Act (DMA) was enacted by the the request through. The failure to resources to obtain or enable Parliament. The Act provided for contain a mass exodus of migrant the establishment of a national labourers, and failure to ensure preventive practices. authority at the Centre and a State State borders do not hinder the entry authority for each State and UTs of essential services and supplies, Response from for the effective management of or denial of PPEs for healthcare Government of India to disasters. This much-applauded law prevent the spread of has so far been used for localised numbers at religious or other places _ COVID-19 of congregation, invite criminal 2013), cyclones (Odisha 2019), prosecution under DMA and other suspending visas and quarantining that this law has been pressed into are liable to be prosecuted for such all incoming travellers has helped. service on a pan India basis. It is breaches. All international passengers entering India undergo Universal Analysis and crisis - the pandemic COVID-19. Health Screening. observations on the „ On 24th March 2020, the DM Act, 2005 of Ministers, Ministry of Health National Disaster Management implementation in Authority directed all Ministries/ & Family Welfare (MoHFW) and Departments of the Central Govt., COVID-19 response Cabinet Secretary are closely State Governments, UT authorities management monitoring the COVID-19 situation. The unique challenge with distancing for a period of 21 under The Epidemic Diseases Act, ` days. The idea was to prevent the natural disaster and neither into the 1897 to enhance preparedness spread of COVID-19. Necessary and containment of the virus. category of man-made disasters. guidelines were subsequently issued The DM Act, 2005 has its limitations With COVID-19 being declared a by the DMA – National Executive as it focuses on the response ` Committee on 24th March 2020, measures mainly on evacuation, Response Fund, constituted under followed by Addendums, dated relief and post-disaster analysis. In Section 48 (1) (a) of the Disaster 25th March 2020 and 27th March Management Act, 2005, is now 2020. available with State Governments These Guidelines (and Addendums) etc., the National and State Disaster for response measures. prescribe closure of certain Response Forces (NDRF and SDRF)

Aug-Sep | 2020 61 Perspective

Institution of separate funds to than NDRF and SDRF (balanced allocation, since, natural disasters are also becoming a new normal, e.g. super cyclones in the Arabian Sea).

Way forward and recommendations The situation is often further between different departments of the same State which end up hampering relief measures. It is time to set aside political differences internecine differences are the last thing on the minds of citizens play a critical role, whereas, in the management actions of a pandemic. who are struggling to cope with current crisis of COVID-19, the the personal and psychological It is also to be noted that the public health machinery and the impact of this unprecedented COVID-19 crisis is not a usual health professionals become the pandemic crisis. At a time when ^ frontiers of response. cooperative federalism is essential, onset or slow-onset disaster, and its our administration and leadership, The National Disaster Management impact and presence are also going at every level, cannot, and ought Plan of 2019 also does not to be ongoing for a longer duration. envisage appropriately and does not to fail its citizens. not comprehensively deal with The provisions of the DM Act, 2005 provides extensive power to the Extraordinary times require present-day situations arising out extraordinary measures. The of the current pandemic. It does Centre through the NDMA headed by the Prime Minister. Actual biological and health disaster not have mention of measures • implementation and COVID-19 `| social distancing, etc., in it. The response are done by the States Dedicated legislation must be drawn National Disaster Management Plan and district authorities, and mostly to handle such nationwide disaster of 2019’s part on ‘Biological and through the provisions of the situations where the Centre, State Public Health Emergencies’ does not Epidemic Disease Act, 1897. States and local authorities have adequate mention any of the measures that ¤^ relevant Act will be the need of unduly harsh disruptions are being Health Act, 1939 which shows the hour with greater powers for caused in enforcing the same. variability in approaches. the local bodies (ULBs and RLBs) mechanism. capacity building measures are response and implementation. It also highlighted the need for more Legislation related to preparedness, and thus, an effective attention to disaster mitigation. COVID-19 in other response in future. countries that the DM Act is not adequate to There is a need for decentralization handle such situations of pandemic Countries such as the UK and ¡ proportions. Moreover, the present Singapore have legislated COVID- structure also does not provide a actions for the management of conducive environment for various idiosyncratic struggles (Corona pandemics and such situations authorities to perform response and Virus Act of 2020, UK Parliament). in future.

62 Aug-Sep | 2020 1(:

$GGLQJ$&XWWLQJ(GJH7R7KH'LJLWDO$JH