Arabian Sea and Cyclone Tauktae
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Mass Evacuations As Second Cyclone in a Week Forms Off India 24 May 2021
Mass evacuations as second cyclone in a week forms off India 24 May 2021 Storm" ahead of landfall, the department said. Storm surges of up to four metres (13 feet) high were "likely to inundate low-lying coastal areas", it added. Evacuations in coastal districts and the Sundarbans mangrove forest, a UNESCO world heritage site, started on Sunday, West Bengal disaster management minister Javed Ahmed Khan said. "We have to evacuate nearly half a million people... to schools (and) government offices, which have been turned into cyclone centres to provide shelter to these people," Khan told AFP. Indian authorities have ordered the evacuation of nearly Odisha's special relief commissioner, Pradeep half a million people as a new cyclone heads towards Jena, told local media that evacuations were being the country's eastern coast. planned, with the state also making arrangements to provide power back-ups to oxygen plants supplying hospitals treating Covid-19 patients. Indian authorities on Monday ordered the Additional oxygen supplies were also being sent to evacuation of nearly half a million people out of the hospitals with virus patients in areas that could be path of a new cyclone heading towards the east of affected by Yaas. the country, just a week after another deadly storm smashed into the west coast. The military and disaster teams have been deployed to help with the preparations and potential The cyclones are hitting as India reels from a surge rescue operations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in coronavirus infections that has plunged the said Sunday. healthcare system into crisis and pushed the country's Covid-19 death toll above 300,000. -
Cyclone Tauktae, May 2021 Second Advisory
Cyclone Tauktae, May 2021 Second Advisory Cyclone Tauktae that originated as a depression near the Lakshadweep Table 2: Forecasted Impact on the States in the next 48 hours- Wind Islands on May 14, has intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm State 17th May 18th May (166 to 221 kmph), according to the IMD bulletin No. 25 (ARB/01/2021) at Gujarat Gale winds (155-165 kmph gusting to 185 Gale winds (80-90 kmph 1430 IST on May 17. According to the IMD forecasts, it is expected to move kmph; Gujarat coast) gusting to 100 kmph) north-north westwards and make a landfall on the coast of Gujarat near Porbandar and Mahuva (east of Diu) on the night of May 17, and further Goa Gale winds (180–190 kmph gusting to 210 move towards Rajasthan, weakening into a depression but with gusting kmph) wind and accompanying rainfall. Maharashtra Gale winds (90-100 kmph gusting to 100 Being the first cyclone to impact India in 2021, this ESCS has brought heavy kmph) rainfall and wind to all States and UTs on the western coast of India since Rajasthan Squally winds (45-55 kmph th May 14. A summary of potential wind and rainfall impacts (between 17 to gusting to 65 kmph) 19th May) over the various States along the western coast of India has been given in Table 1 and 2. Table 1: Forecasted Impact on the States in the next 48 hours- Rainfall IMPACT State 17th May 18th May 19th May Six people have lost their lives to the cyclone in Karnataka and 121 villages 1 Karnataka Heavy to Very Heavy Light to moderate rainfall are affected in the state . -
Cyclone Nivar - Important Facts
Cyclone Nivar - Important Facts Cyclone Nivar is a ‘severe cyclonic storm’ that is expected to hit the southeastern coast of India on midnight of 25th November 2020. Cyclones and other natural disasters that affect India and the world are important topics for the UPSC exam. It is important for both the geography and the disaster management topics in the UPSC syllabus. Cyclone Nivar The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that the severe cyclone Nivar will intensify into a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ and make landfall between Mamallapuram (in Tamil Nadu, around 56 km from Chennai) and Karaikal in Puducherry, on 25th November at midnight or early hours of the 26th of November. • The Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are experiencing heavy rains and strong winds due to the impending cyclone. Many parts of the metropolitan city of Chennai have been flooded due to the heavy rainfall. • The winds that the cyclone brings could be between 120 and 130 km per hour, with gusts of up to 145 km per hour. • Officials had stated they would release water from the Chembarambakkam reservoir near Chennai due to the heavy rain received in the wake of Nivar. • People living in low-lying areas have been evacuated. • The Indian Army has sent teams and rescue boats to the affected areas for assistance in the aftermath of the landfall. • Thousands of people have been evacuated as a precautionary measure. • Trains and flights have been cancelled owing to the cyclone. • Experts say that after landfall, the cyclone may take up to six hours to weaken. -
12 June 2019 1. Gujarat on Alert As Cyclonic Storm Vayu Inches Towards the Coast • the India Meteorological Department Issued
www.gradeup.co 12 June 2019 1. Gujarat on alert as cyclonic storm Vayu inches towards the coast • The India Meteorological Department issued an orange alert over Cyclone Vayu which is expected to reach the Gujarat coast. • Cyclone Vayu, named by India. • It is moving towards the North (expected to hit Gujarat coast) and is expected to draw moisture away from the monsoon that in turn will delay the arrival of monsoon. Related Information Conditions for cyclone formation: 1. Warm sea temperature of about 27 Celsius 2. Presence of Coriolis force 3. Calm atmospheric conditions How does Cyclone affect monsoon? • Cyclones are sustained by very strong low-pressure areas at their core. • Winds in surrounding areas are forced to rush towards these low-pressure areas. • Similar low-pressure areas, when they develop near or over land, are instrumental in pulling the monsoon winds over the country as well. • But right now, the low-pressure area at the centre of the cyclone is far more powerful than any local system that can pull the monsoon winds moving northeast. • Thus by sucking all the moisture from the monsoon winds towards itself the northward progress, especially in interior areas, would not be possible till the cyclone dissipates Different Cyclonic Alerts • Yellow: Be Updated • Orange: Be prepared • Red: Take action • Green: No warning Arabian Sea Cyclones • Arabian Sea cyclones are also relatively weak compared to those emerging in the Bay of Bengal. • In the last 120 years, just about 14% of all cyclonic storms, and 23% of severe cyclones, around India have occurred in the Arabian Sea. -
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae - Estimated Impacts Warning 7, 15 May 2021 2100 UTC PDC-1I-7A JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EVOLVING EYE FEATURE.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151703Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA.THE INITIAL INTENSITY 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS AND ADT OF T3.9/63KTS.THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VERAVAL, INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36.AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LAND INTERACTION.AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY -
Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Using Long Short-Term Memory Network
INTENSITY PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES USING LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY NETWORK Koushik Biswas Sandeep Kumar Department of Computer Science, IIIT Delhi Department of Computer Science, IIIT Delhi New Delhi, India, 110020. & [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi New Delhi, India, 110020. [email protected], [email protected] Ashish Kumar Pandey Department of Mathematics, IIIT Delhi New Delhi, India, 110020. [email protected] July 8, 2021 ABSTRACT Tropical cyclones can be of varied intensity and cause a huge loss of lives and property if the intensity is high enough. Therefore, the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones advance in time is of utmost importance. We propose a novel stacked bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) based model architecture to predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone in terms of Maximum surface sustained wind speed (MSWS). The proposed model can predict MSWS well advance in time (up to 72 h) with very high accuracy. We have applied the model on tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean from 1982 to 2018 and checked its performance on two recent tropical cyclones, namely, Fani and Vayu. The model predicts MSWS (in knots) for the next 3, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours with a mean absolute error of 1.52, 3.66, 5.88, 7.42, 8.96, 10.15, and 11.92, respectively. Keywords Deep Learning · LSTM · Tropical Cyclone · Cyclone intensity arXiv:2107.03187v1 [cs.LG] 7 Jul 2021 1 Introduction The weather-related forecast is one of the difficult problems to solve due to the complex interplay between various cause factors. -
Winds, Rain Batter Western India As Cyclone Veers Away 13 June 2019, by Rajesh Joshi
Winds, rain batter western India as cyclone veers away 13 June 2019, by Rajesh Joshi On Wednesday, forecasters had been bracing for the system to hit Gujarat with full force winds equivalent to a category one or two hurricane. Authorities in Gujarat evacuated more than 285,000 people as a precaution. Schools have been closed, with officials fearing major damage to houses, crops, power lines and communications. Five people have been killed by lightning in Gujarat, mostly farmers and labourers working in fields, authorities said. The Air Force, Coastguard and Navy were all on high alert, with 36 teams from the National Disaster Cyclone Vayu had been expected to hit Gujarat with full Response Force (NDRF) deployed in coastal force areas. On Thursday, the eye of the cyclone was some 110 kilometres (70 miles) from Veraval, a major hub of High winds and heavy rains pounded western India India's fisheries industry, exporting to Japan, South on Thursday as a major cyclone expected to hit the East Asia, Europe, the Gulf and the United States. coast veered away instead into the Arabian Sea. The state also houses major ports as well as the Vayu, classified as a very severe cyclonic storm, Jamnagar oil refinery, the world's largest. moved north-northwestwards in the night over the Arabian Sea, and was around 110 kilometres (70 All ports in Gujarat halted the berthing of vessels miles) from the coast of Gujarat state. from Wednesday, while Indian Railways cancelled 77 trains. It was "very likely" to keep moving in the same direction, but still skirt the coast, packing winds of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who comes from 135-145 kilometres (84-90 miles) per hour and Gujarat, said Wednesday that the central gusts of 160 kilometres (100 miles) per hour, the government was closely monitoring the situation. -
Cyclone Tauktae
Cyclone Tauktae What is the issue? The recent Cyclone Tauktae has left a trail of death and destruction before making landfall in Gujarat. This reminds again that accurate forecasts and resilience-building hold the key to handling severe cyclones. How severe was Cyclone Tauktae? Cyclone Tauktae swelled into an extremely severe cyclonic storm. It led to dumping enormous volumes of water all along the west coast. The cyclone caused loss of life in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat, before weakening overland. The twin crises of the cyclone and COVID-19 have strained the capacities of multiple States, especially the coastal ones. What are IMD’s recent measures? In 2020, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) launched an impact- based cyclone warning system. This was designed to reduce economic losses by focusing on districts and specific locations. It incorporates such factors as population, infrastructure, land use and settlements. The IMD also claimed that its accuracy of forecasts, for instance, in plotting landfall location, is now better. Together with ground mapping of vulnerabilities, this is a promising approach to avoid loss of life and destruction of property. What are the priorities now? Developing greater expertise in forecasting and disaster mitigation is essential. Crafting policies to increase resilience among communities is another priority. Arabian Sea has emerged as a major source of severe cyclones. Their intensity is aggravated by long-term rise in sea surface temperatures linked to pollution over South Asia and its neighbourhood. So importance of precise early warnings is high now than before. Climate-proofing lives and dwellings is also a high priority now. -
Stormy Start: on Handling Severe Cyclones
DAILY VOCAB DIGESTIVE (21st-JULY-2021) STORMY START: ON HANDLING SEVERE CYCLONES Accurate forecasts and resilience-building hold the key to handling severe cyclones Millions of people wearied by the onslaught of the coronavirus have had to contend with a furious tropical cyclone that has left a trail of death and destruction before making landfall in Gujarat. Cyclone Tauktae swelled into an extremely severe cyclonic storm, dumping enormous volumes of water all along the west coast, and caused loss of life in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat, before weakening overland. To thousands who had to be evacuated to safe locations, this year’s pre- monsoon season presented a double jeopardy, caught as they were between a fast-spreading virus variant and an unrelenting storm. Many coastal residents would have felt a sense of déjà vu, having gone through a similar experience last year, when the severe cyclonic storm, Nisarga, barrelled landwards from the Arabian Sea, pounding Alibaug in Maharashtra as it came ashore. The cyclones in both years spared densely populated Mumbai. The twin crises have, however, strained the capacities of multiple States, especially the coastal ones, although the impact of the storm was considerably mitigated by disaster response forces. Once again, the value of creating a trained cadre, supported by the defence forces in rescue and relief work, is seen. The heralding of the 2021 monsoon season by a cyclone comes as another reminder that the subcontinent is at the confluence of more frequent, extreme weather events originating in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea every year. -
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Cyclone Tauktae
Cyclone Tauktae drishtiias.com/printpdf/cyclone-tauktae Why in News Recently, Cyclone Tauktae made landfall in Gujarat. The cyclone has left a trail of destruction as it swept through the coastal states of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra. Key Points 1/3 About: Named by: It is a tropical cyclone, named by Myanmar. It means 'gecko', a highly vocal lizard, in the Burmese language. Typically, tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) develop during the pre-monsoon (April to June) and post-monsoon (October to December) periods. May-June and October-November are known to produce cyclones of severe intensity that affect the Indian coasts. Classification: It has weakened into a "very severe cyclonic storm" from the "extremely severe cyclonic storm". The India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies cyclones on the basis of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (MSW) they generate. The cyclones are classified as severe (MSW of 48-63 knots), very severe (MSW of 64-89 knots), extremely severe (MSW of 90-119 knots) and super cyclonic storm (MSW of 120 knots or more). One knot is equal to 1.8 kmph (kilometers per hour). Developed in Arabian Sea: Tauktae is the fourth cyclone in consecutive years to have developed in the Arabian Sea, that too in the pre-monsoon period (April to June). After Cyclone Mekanu in 2018, which struck Oman, Cyclone Vayu in 2019 struck Gujarat, followed by Cyclone Nisarga in 2020 that struck Maharashtra. All these cyclones since 2018 have been categorised either ‘Severe Cyclone’ or above. Arabian Sea becoming Hotbed of Cyclones: Annually, five cyclones on average form in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea combined. -
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