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The Social-Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Risk Perceptions: Towards a Comprehensive Model

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The Social-Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Risk Perceptions: Towards a Comprehensive Model Journal of Environmental Psychology 41 (2015) 112e124 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Environmental Psychology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jep The social-psychological determinants of climate change risk perceptions: Towards a comprehensive model * Sander van der Linden Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA article info abstract Article history: This study advances a detailed social-psychological model of climate change risk perceptions by Available online 4 December 2014 combining and integrating cognitive, experiential, and socio-cultural factors. The conceptual model is tested empirically on a national sample (N ¼ 808) of the UK population. Results indicate that the full Keywords: climate change risk perception model (CCRPM) is able to explain nearly 70% of the variance in risk Risk perception perception. Gender, political party, knowledge of the causes, impacts and responses to climate change, Climate change social norms, value orientations, affect and personal experience with extreme weather were all iden- Global warming tified as significant predictors. Experiential and socio-cultural factors explained significantly more Risk communication variance in risk perception than either cognitive or socio-demographic characteristics. Results also confirm that the factor analytic structure of climate change risk perceptions can be conceptualized along two key dimensions, namely: personal and societal risk judgments and that both dimensions have different psychological antecedents. Implications for theory and public risk communication are discussed. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction and China (Leiserowitz, Maibach, Roser-Renouf, Feinberg, & Rosenthal, 2014; Pew, 2010). More broadly, climate change is While climate change is a complex global hazard that poses generally perceived as a higher risk in developing countries than in significant challenges to societies worldwide (Swim et al., 2011), most of the Western World (Kim & Wolinsky-Nahmias, 2014). the extent to which it is publicly viewed as a risk that requires Moreover, risk judgments of climate change do not only vary be- urgent attention varies substantially (Kim & Wolinsky-Nahmias, tween different countries: they also vary strongly between in- 2014). This is a peculiar but inevitable result of the fact that the dividuals in the same country (e.g., Smith & Leiserowitz, 2012; nature of human perception allows for a differentiation between Whitmarsh, 2011). real-world threats and the subjective perceptual experience of As an object of risk representation, climate change is relatively those threats (Pidgeon, Kasperson, & Slovic, 2003). Indeed, the unique (Breakwell, 2010). It is unique in the sense that both the perception of risk is a mental construct (Sjoberg,€ 2000a). As Slovic magnitude and complexity of the climate change problem are un- (1992) points out, the notion of “risk” is a human invention and as precedented in terms of the scale (i.e., global) as well as the time- such, “it does not exist independent of our minds and culture” (p. line involved (i.e., stretching over centuries). Furthermore, 690). because climate change is a slow, cumulative and largely invisible To illustrate, climate change has consistently been perceived as a process, it cannot be experienced directly (Weber, 2010) and as “very serious” problem by publics in the UK, Australia and most of such, it is markedly different from the way that our ancestors have continental Europe (Eurobarometer, 2014; Pidgeon, 2012; Reser, traditionally perceived threats in their local environment (Gifford, Bradley, Glendon, Ellul, & Callaghan, 2012) while concern has 2011; Helgeson, van der Linden, & Chabay, 2012). Thus, human- traditionally been much lower and less stable in the United States caused climate change is an evolutionarily “novel” risk (Griskevicius, Cantu, & Van Vugt, 2012). Advancing a more detailed understanding of the psychological * Department of Psychology, Peretsman-Scully Hall 421, Princeton University, factors that drive and shape public risk perceptions of climate Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. change is therefore a pivotal task, especially since an increasing E-mail address: [email protected]. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.11.012 0272-4944/© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. S. van der Linden / Journal of Environmental Psychology 41 (2015) 112e124 113 Table 1 Overview of selected risk perception studies (ordered by explanatory power). Authors Key explanatory variables Dependent variable Sample Explained variance Akerlof, Maibach, Fitzgerald, (a) Personal experience, (b) cultural Local climate Alger County, 55% Cedeno, and Neuman (2013) worldviews (proxy), (c) political change risk (8 Michigan, USA ideology, (d) place attachment and items, a ¼ 0.96) (local) (N ¼ 765) (e) socio-demographics. Spence et al. (2012) Psychological distance variables, Risk Perception Great Britain 54% (a)temporal, (b) spatial and Index (3 items, (national) (c) uncertainty. a ¼ 0.83) (N ¼ 1822) Leiserowitz (2006) and Smith (a) Holistic negative affect, (b) image Risk Perception USA (national) 47%e52% and Leiserowitz (2012) affect, (c) naysayers, (d) alarmists, Index (9 items, (N ¼ 673 and (e) political ideology, (f) cultural a ¼ 0.94/0.96) N ¼ 1001) worldviews (egalitarian/individualist), (g) member of environmental group, (h) newspaper reader and (i) socio- demographics. Kellstedt, Zahran, and Vedlitz (a) Ecological values (NEP), (b) personal Risk Perception USA (national) 43% (2008) efficacy, (c) self-reported knowledge Index (6 items, (N ¼ 1093) about climate change, (d) trust in a ¼ 0.87) media, (e) trust in experts, (f) confidence in science, (g) political ideology and (h) socio-demographics. Brody, Zahran, Vedlitz, and (a) Physical vulnerability variables, Risk Perception USA (national) 42% Grover (2008) (b) ecological values (NEP), (c) self- Index (3 items, (N ¼ 1093) efficacy, (d) knowledge, (e) network a ¼ 0.84) interest and (f) socio-demographics. Milfont (2012) (a) Ecological values (NEP), (b) political Risk Perception New Zealand 38%e48% ideology, (c) self-reported knowledge Index (6 items, (national - 1yr about climate change, (d) perceived a ¼ 0.86) panel) (N ¼ 269) efficacy, (e) trust in media, (f) trust in experts, (g) confidence in science and (h) socio-demographics. Menny, Osberghaus, Pohl, and (a) Beliefs about climate change, Personal Risk Index Mannheim, 31% Werner (2011) (b) interest in climate change, (c) (17 items, a ¼ not Germany (local) knowledge about climate change, reported) (N ¼ 157) (d) mass media influence, (e) personal experience with extreme weather and (f) socio-demographics. Sundblad, Biel, and Garling€ (2007) (a) Knowledge about climate change, Risk Perception Sweden (national) 24e26% (b) worry/affect and (c) socio- Index (9 items, (N ¼ 621) demographics. a ¼ 0.91) Malka, Krosnick, and Langer (2009) (a) Self-reported knowledge, (b) trust in Single- USA (national) 22e25% scientists and (c) socio-demographics. Items(Perceived (N ¼ 1002) general and national seriousness) amount of studies are indicating that risk perception is an impor- more systematic and detailed organization of key social- tant predictor of public willingness to help reduce climate change psychological determinants is currently lacking, making it diffi- (e.g., Leiserowitz, 2006; O'Connor, Bord, & Fisher, 1999; Semenza cult for both researchers and practitioners to see the forest for the et al., 2008; Spence, Poortinga, Butler, & Pidgeon, 2011; Spence, trees, (b) a majority of the studies have been conducted in the Poortinga, & Pidgeon, 2012; Tobler, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2012a). Unites States and (c) the amount of variance explained ranges be- In order to get a better overview of the current state of research, a tween 22% and 55% (with an average of about 40%), leaving sub- survey of the peer-reviewed literature was conducted using the stantial room to further develop both the theoretical as well as the search terms “risk perception”, “climate change” and “global empirical explanatory power of current risk perception models. warming”.1 Studies were ordered and selected based on the relative All of the included studies (Table 1) offer correlational evidence explanatory power (R2) of the reported models and a brief overview of what predictors are potentially associated with climate change of ten “major” studies is provided in Table 1. risk perceptions. However, it is worth mentioning that several A number of conclusions can be drawn from the table. To start factors warrant caution and make any direct comparisons between with, (a) while a variety of different models and approaches have psychological determinants difficult. For example, the sizable dif- contributed to explaining risk perceptions of climate change, a ferences in explained variance between the various models can be attributed (at least, to some extent) to the fact that many of the included studies either use a limited or substantially different set of predictors. Moreover, similar constructs are also likely to differ in 1 The following databases were used: PsychInfo, Scopus, Google Scholar and Web terms of how they were measured and operationalized. of Science. Note that the search does not claim comprehensive coverage; its pur- Perhaps most notably, different studies used different measures pose is simply to give the reader an idea of the diversity of existing models and predictor variables (and the large variation in their explanatory power).
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