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The Social-Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Intentions and Behaviours: a National Study

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The Social-Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Intentions and Behaviours: a National Study The Social-Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Intentions and Behaviours: A National Study Sander van der Linden A thesis submitted to the Department of Geography and Environment of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY London, May 2014 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 82,449 words. Statement of conjoint work I confirm that publication nr. 2 was jointly co-authored with Dr. Jennifer Helgeson and Prof. Ilan Chabay and I contributed 65% of this work. List of Publications: 1. van der Linden, S. (2014). Towards a new model for communicating climate change. In. S. Cohen, J. Higham, P. Peeters and S. Gössling (Eds.), Understanding and governing sustainable tourism mobility: Psychological and behavioural approaches (pp. 243-275). Routledge: Taylor and Francis Group. 2. Helgeson, J., van der Linden, S., & Chabay, I. (2012). The Role of Knowledge, Learning and Mental Models in Public Perceptions of Climate Change Related Risks. In A. Wals & P. B. Corcoran (Eds.), Learning for sustainability in times of accelerating change (pp. 329-346). Wageningen, NL: Wageningen Academic Publishers. 3. van der Linden, S. (revised & resubmitted). The Social-Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Risk Perceptions: Towards a Comprehensive Model. Risk Analysis. 4. van der Linden, S. (2014). On the Relationship between Personal Experience, Affect and Risk Perception: The Case of Climate Change. European Journal of Social Psychology. doi: 10.1002/ejsp2008 5. van der Linden, S. (submitted). The Psychological Determinants of Climate Change Mitigation Intentions and Behaviours: A Domain-Context-Behavior (DCB) Model. 2 © 2014 by Sander Leo van der Linden All Rights Reserved. 3 Tho’ much is taken, much abides; and tho’ We are not now that strength which in old days Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will “To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield”. - Lord Alfred Tennyson (Ulysses) To my loving parents. 4 Abstract Although human-caused climate change is one of the greatest societal challenges of the 21st century, insights from social and environmental psychology remain underrepresented in the mitigation debate. This is surprising given that the collective potential for reducing national carbon emissions through changes in individual lifestyles and behaviours has clearly been demonstrated. Accordingly, this PhD thesis aims to provide a more systematic and detailed understanding of individual mitigation behaviour. It does so specifically by examining the social-psychological determinants of climate change risk perceptions, intentions and behaviours using a longitudinal UK national survey (N = 808, wave 1) and (N = 501, wave 2). In total, three separate analyses were conducted using the national survey data. In the first analysis (chapter 4), a social-psychological model of climate change risk perceptions is advanced. The model proposes that public risk perceptions of climate change are influenced by three key psychological dimensions, namely; (i) cognitive, (ii) experiential and (iii) socio- cultural factors. Results confirm the model’s validity and show that nearly 70% of the variance in risk perception can be explained by the model’s components. Main findings also provide empirical support for a distinction between personal and societal risk judgements and highlight important differences in their psychological antecedents. The second analysis (chapter 5) specifically investigates the interrelation between personal experience with extreme weather, affect and risk perception and situates their conceptual relationship within the cognition-emotion debate. Results provide strong support for a dual-process model, where risk perception and affect mutually influence each other in a stable feedback system. In the third analysis (chapter 6), a domain-context-behaviour (DCB) model is advanced. The purpose of the model is to causally conceptualize and systematically organize the social- psychological determinants of climate change mitigation behaviours. A key aspect of the DCB model is the notion that environmental values (i.e. the “domain”) and climate change cognitions, norms and emotions (i.e. the “context”) do not influence specific mitigation intentions and behaviours (e.g. energy conservation) directly. Rather, they influence a broad and general orienting intention to help reduce climate change. This general intention in turn activates and predicts specific mitigation intentions directly as well as indirectly via behaviour-specific determinants. Important differences emerge between high-impact and low- impact behavioural changes. Overall, results from this thesis have important implications for public policy, risk communication and behavioural change interventions. 5 Acknowledgements With these final words, this thesis and four years of research come to an end. While I owe many a heartfelt thank you, first and foremost, I would like to thank my primary internal (LSE) and external (Yale) PhD advisors; Drs. Richard Perkins and Anthony Leiserowitz. I literally could not have wished for better guidance and support throughout all stages of my PhD. From our very first meeting to the final stages of this four year journey, Richard has been a critical force in shaping my thinking, in supporting my specific area of research, in always challenging me to challenge myself and in continually inspiring me to excel and to always move onwards and upwards. My journey as an interdisciplinary scholar would not have been the same without his guidance and support. He truly has been, the voice of reason (especially when I lost my own). I have been fortunate enough to split my time as a doctoral candidate between two remarkable and inspiring universities. I left LSE to visit Yale University in 2012. Equally, I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to Anthony Leiserowitz, an exemplary scholar from whom I have had the opportunity to learn so much in the last two years. I cannot thank him enough for welcoming me to the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, for guiding me into the fascinating world of risk perception and decision-making research and for always being ready to offer constructive and insightful advice. What started out as an initial exchange blossomed into a long-term collaboration and friendship. I am greatly indebted to his personal and intellectual support. I would also like to thank Geoffrey Feinberg, Lisa Fernandez, Edward Maibach, Seth Rosenthal and Jennifer Marlon for all their help and useful advice along the way. My family, my friends and especially my dear parents (Veronica and Jack) have been a continuous inspiration and without their encouragement and unconditional support for my (unconventional) decisions and ambitions in life, none of this would have been possible. I cannot possibly begin to thank them for all that they have given me. 6 I would also like to thank my dear friend Luka Bareis. Inevitably and inescapably, our endless discussions over the last years have had a lasting impact on both my thinking and writing (in this reality as well as on the quantum level). I am incredibly grateful to Breanne Chryst. Her unparalleled support and advice has made all the difference. She has been my light in the dark and I cannot thank her enough. She is my dearest friend and a continuous source of emotional and intellectual inspiration. I would like to extend special thanks to Carmen Marchiori, Maria Carvalho, Simon Dietz, Jennifer Helgeson, Jonathan Colmer, Alessandro Tavoni and all other Granthamites with whom I have had the pleasure of working with over the last years. Special thanks to Profs. Jouni Kuha (LSE Statistics), Noreena Hertz (UCL Brain Sciences), Adam Oliver (LSE Social Policy) and Jonathan Reuning-Scherer (Yale Statistics) as well. This research has received generous financial support from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, which in turn is funded by the Grantham Foundation for the protection of the Environment as well as the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, which is funded by the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and by Munich Re. I would also like to thank the London School of Economics and Political Science, the Department of Geography and the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication for additional financial support that allowed me to focus entirely on my research. Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank Prof. Nick Pidgeon (School of Psychology, Cardiff) and Prof. George Gaskell (Department of Methodology, LSE) for examining this thesis. Any remaining errors are, of course, solely and entirely my own. 7 Table of Contents Abstract ..........................................................................................................................
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