UNDERSTANDING the URBAN ENVIRONMENT Conceptualizing Urban Resilience and Stability Through the GENETICS Framework
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UNDERSTANDING THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT Conceptualizing Urban Resilience and Stability through the GENETICS Framework Capstone Project Report Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs A NOTE ON IMAGES USED IN THIS STUDY This study uses images with attrtibuted sources licensed under various versions of Creative Commons Licenses, which permit the legal reproduction and distribution of images in the public domain with some restrictions. More information on the specific licenses available for each image can be located by searching the image on the platform indicated in its attribution. More information on the Creative Commons licensing process is available at creativecommons.org/licenses. Cover Images clockwise Modulus in Mobili via Flickr National Archives from United States Navy The Stand News Keneunone via Wikimedia Commons Alen Istokovic via Wikimedia Commons 2 Understanding the Urban Environment UNDERSTANDING THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT Conceptualizing Urban Resilience and Stability through the GENETICS Framework Capstone Project Report Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs Course Number: SIPA U9000_035 Project Advisor COL(R) Patrick J. Mahaney, Jr. Project Team Members Sam Anderson Larson Holt Alex Pytlar Wilailuk Poolee Jonathan Salna Bryan Terrazas Yifei Wang Tianyi Zhang Conceptualizing Urban Resilience and Stability through the GENETICS Framework 3 4 Understanding the Urban Environment Abstract Global urbanization is occurring at an increasing rate, creating cities with unprecedented population density, size, scale, and population totals that were nearly unimaginable just a century ago. Cities are home to some of the most vulnerable systems that large proportions of the global population rely upon, such as water and sanitation limitations, as well as the site of new and increasingly critical factors such as enhanced internet-connectivity and profound electrical dependency. At some point, these new population centers will likely experience crises that demand outside involvement. The United States military is uniquely situated as well as expected to assist in these crises and respond to future conflicts. As such, it is critical that planners have a framework that can be applied when evaluating urban en- vironments from which they may draw reasonable conclusions regarding decision-making. Existing DoD frameworks (i.e. PMESII-PT and ASCOPE) for analyzing and understanding current city environ- ments are ill-suited to assess and evaluate the upcoming urban stability issues cities will be facing in the twenty-first century and beyond. This study highlights important factors affecting the stability of future cities, acknowledges the inability to bypass, surround, or ignore them as part of a larger con- flict, and emphasizes the growing importance of human dynamics and people’s expectations regard- ing urban situations and contexts. Dense urban environments are the hubs of technological oppor- tunities and complications, increasingly interconnected international relations, and other significant risks and opportunities that impact and threaten urban stability. The study offers a process to evaluates a city’s stability through ACE dimensions - adaptive capacity, coping capacity, and expectancy benchmarks - and introduces a tool providing a visualization of our GENETICS criteria - Governance, Economics, Natural Environment, Energy, Technology and Commu- nication, Culture, and Security - within an overall framework that is applicable to any large urban cen- ter, and that provides planners and decision-makers the ability to make informed decisions regarding urban stability. Conceptualizing Urban Resilience and Stability through the GENETICS Framework 5 Acknowledgements Before we begin, we would like to recognize a number of crucial groups and individuals without whom this project would not have taken place. We would like to thank Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, and the United States Military Academy West Point’s Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering (GENE), for putting together a project that allowed us to explore this exciting topic. We would also like to thank our project advisor, COL(R) Patrick J. Mahaney, Jr., for his leadership, advice, and encouragement throughout the project, as well as the GENE faculty who supported us throuhgout this project, in particular Dr. Amy Richmond and Dr. Richard Woefel for their participation and collaboration at various stages of the project along the way. We also extend our gratitude to all our respective friends and families for supporting us through this process, particularly as we grappled with transitioning to remote work across multiple time zones due to the coronavirus pandemic occurring during the same semester as this project. 6 Understanding the Urban Environment Table of Contents Executive Summary 7 OPENING 1. Introduction 13 2. Literature Review 17 3. Defining GENETICS Terminology 25 4. GENETICS Methodology 29 METRICS 5. Governance 35 6. Economics 45 7. Natural Environment 55 8. Energy 65 9. Technology 73 10. Infrastructure and Urban Mobility 83 11. Culture and Society 93 12. Security 103 CASE STUDIES 13. Hurricane Sandy in New York City 117 14. The Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong 153 CLOSING 15. Conclusion 187 APPENDICES A. GENETICS Correlation With Existing Military Urban Analysis Frameworks 191 B. A Quantitative Approach to GENETICS 197 Conceptualizing Urban Resilience and Stability through the GENETICS Framework 7 Executive Summary The increasing urbanization of the world’s Capabilities, Organizations, People, Events). population is creating cities with unprecedented Although useful in some context, these tools population density, size, and populations. As fall short of capturing the significance of these people crowd into these increasingly complex large cities and dense urban environments, and environments, it becomes inevitable that instead provide only a rough framework to list catastrophes will occur that stress the ability of basic characteristics of an urban environment these cities to their breaking point. Although or region. The GENETICS framework moves major urban environments vary in a multitude beyond this attempt simply listing the general of ways, their relative importance in regards to characteristics of a city, instead focusing on the economy, culture, and political structure of a systematic understanding of the unique nations means that urban stability increasingly underlying factors of a large urban environment represents national stability. These cities all face that can make or break the ability of a city to unique difficulties and vulnerabilities that will be respond to crisis. (See Appendix A for additional inevitably tested in a variety of fashions in the analysis on comparing the GENETICS framework coming years. Whether a result of some natural with existing DOD methods) disaster or as a result of war, these trials will represent some of the most important events Each factor defined in the GENETICS framework for the United States Government and Military helps a policymaker or analyst understand to properly analyze and respond to in order the unique features that exist within the major maintain urban stability. urban environments of the future. The tool is not meant to be predictive, nor an exhaustive Understanding this need for analysis, the list of every possible factor that can potentially United States Military Academy at West Point’s affect urban stability. Instead, it is designed as Department of Geography and Environmental a system to encourage focusing upon the key Engineering requested a project to explore metrics that have demonstrated the ability to the future urban environment from a resiliency influence urban stability as previously identified perspective. What factors make the increasingly in previous examinations into the matter. In this large cities of the future unique? What factors study, each of these factors are defined and then define and impact the resilience and stability assessed by three primary resilience dimensions of these urban environments? The project – Adaptive Capacity, Coping Capacity, and also called for development of a metric and Expectancy Benchmarks – which are populated visual resource to help explore and understand by criteria and metrics that can help define urban stability in a diverse range of urban whether these concepts are positively, neutrally, environments. In response to this request, or negatively impacting Urban Stability. As every the GENETICS (Governance, Economic, city and urban environment is different, this tool Natural Environment, Energy, Technology and does not make an attempt to rank or compare Communication, Infrastructure, Culture, and cities; efforts to create this type of comparison Security) Framework has been designed in order exist in other publications and resources, but to help answer the pressing questions regarding they do not necessarily help understand specific how to focus resources and analyze risk in a contextual factors that influence stability. Instead, dense urban environment. it is designed to rapidly understand the factors influencing urban stability that have potential Currently, the U.S. Army has several tools for impacts on the severity of a stress or crisis. This approaching this topic, such as the ubiquitous tool refocuses the conversation around cities PMESII-PT (Political, Military, Economic, Social, to the most critical factors, and will help make Information, Infrastructure, Physical