The Outside Actors That Have Shaped the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
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Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War – The Outside Actors 3/4/2005 Page i CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 [email protected] Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War Rough Working Draft: Circulated for Comment and Correction The Outside Actors that Have Shaped the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies With the Assistance of Jason A. Wittemen and Richard G. Young February 23, 2005 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War – The Outside Actors 3/4/2005 Page ii Introduction The reader should be aware that this is an initial rough draft. The text is being circulated for comment and will be extensively revised over time. It reflects the working views of the author and does not reflect final conclusions or the views of the CSIS. Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War – The Outside Actors 3/4/2005 Page iii TABLE OF CONTENTS IX. THE OUTSIDE ACTORS THAT HAVE SHAPED THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT.............1 OUTSIDE ACTORS: THE HIZBOLLAH..........................................................................................................................1 Hizbollah Support of Palestinian Violence ..........................................................................................................2 The Risk of a “Northern Front”...........................................................................................................................4 Linkages to Syria, Lebanon and Iran ...................................................................................................................8 The Hizbollah’s Future Role..............................................................................................................................10 OUTSIDE ACTORS: IRAN ..........................................................................................................................................11 Iran before the War............................................................................................................................................11 Iranian Support of Palestinian Militancy...........................................................................................................12 Iran in the International “War on Terror” ........................................................................................................13 OUTSIDE ACTORS: SYRIA ........................................................................................................................................14 Syria during the Peace Process .........................................................................................................................15 Syria during the Israeli-Palestinian War ...........................................................................................................16 Syria in the International “War on Terror”.......................................................................................................17 OUTSIDE ACTORS: JORDAN .....................................................................................................................................18 The Shaping of the Jordanian-Palestinian Relationship....................................................................................19 Jordan and the Peace Process ...........................................................................................................................21 The Jordanian Campaign against Militancy......................................................................................................23 Jordan and the Israeli-Palestinian War.............................................................................................................24 OUTSIDE ACTORS: IRAQ ..........................................................................................................................................26 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War – The Outside Actors 3/4/2005 Page 1 IX. The Outside Actors that Have Shaped the Israeli- Palestinian Conflict While Israel and the various Palestinian factions are the key actors in the conflict, other actors have played important roles and will continue to do so in the future. These actors include the Lebanese Hizbollah, Iran, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Outside Actors: The Hizbollah When the Hizbollah was established in 1982, its primary goal was to force Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon. When it achieved this goal in May 2000, its focus began to broaden, although it still challenged Israel over disputed territories like the Shebaa Farms region in the foothills of Mount Hermon. Since September 2000, following Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem and the subsequent Palestinian uprising, Hizbollah has become much more outspoken in its support for the Palestinian cause. It has repeatedly said that it seeks the withdrawal of Israel from all territory it considers occupied and as rightfully belonging to Arabs. Hizbollah continues to garner strong support from the Lebanese, Syrian and Iranian governments. It engages in both political and military activity, and its structure is hierarchical, disciplined and secretive. Its central decision-making body is the seven-member Majlis Shura al- Qarar (“Decision-making Consultative Council”), which is presided over by Sheik Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah. Though he is clearly recognized as Hizbollah’s leader, Nasrallah shares power with the other members of the council. Their decisions are generally reached by consensus or a vote. There are also a number of other bodies and committees below the Consultative Council, including the Politburo, which provides advice to the Council, and the General Convention, which implements Council orders and plans day-to-day operations in Lebanon.1 Other elements also influence Hizbollah decision-making. High-ranking resistance fighters are influential, due in part to their privileged status in the General Convention and the fact that their former commanders are often elected to the Consultative Council. In addition, the security and intelligence agencies play an important role in the group, particularly Amn al-Hizb (the “Party’s Security”), which is believed to protect Hizbollah leaders, preserve discipline and monitor all levels of the Hizbollah hierarchy, including the Consultative Council. Moreover, Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission. Quotation or reference is permitted with proper attribution. Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War – The Outside Actors 3/4/2005 Page 2 Iran and Syria, due to their financial and political support, also significantly impact Hizbollah decisions.2 Hizbollah operates a twenty-four-hour global television and radio station, Al Manar, which is reportedly owned by members of Hizbollah’s political branch and receives instructions from Hizbollah’s propaganda wing.3 Al Manar continually solicits donations for Hizbollah during programming breaks. The money is used not only for Hizbollah’s humanitarian operations, but also for terrorist activities and propaganda. Donations can be made to four different banks in Lebanon, which illustrates the Lebanese government’s refusal to freeze Hizbollah’s assets.4 Almost inevitably, Hizbollah reacted strongly to the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian War in September 2000. An official statement from the group referred to Sharon’s visit as “a deliberate desecration of Muslim holy places in Jerusalem, a criminal act and an insolent provocation of the feelings and dignities of the Arab and Muslim people.” The group further described Sharon’s visit as a crime and “…a declaration of war on Muslim sacred places in Jerusalem…”5 In October 2000, Al Manar broadcast speeches by Sheik Nasrallah that were clearly designed to incite Palestinian hostility. One such speech included a call to stab Israelis to death: “If you don’t have bullets, who among you doesn’t have knives? Hide the knife, and when he comes close to the enemy let him stab him. Let the stab be fatal.”6 In another instance, Sheik Nasrallah appeared on the independent satellite television station al-Jazeera, in Qatar, and addressed the Palestinians as “holy war comrades-in-arms” and proposed a strategy of gradually escalating the uprising from stones to daggers to firearms and other means of military combat.7 He also reportedly encouraged Palestinians to fight Israelis using suicide operations. Hizbollah Support of Palestinian Violence Hizbollah has since offered continued political support and guidance to Palestinian fighters. Typically, this support has manifested in the form of rhetoric in the international mass media. In October 2000, Nasrallah stated that Hizbollah