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The Global Financial Crisis and Contagion of Its Effects on Emerging Market Economies

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The Global Financial Crisis and Contagion of Its Effects on Emerging Market Economies T. C. İSTANBUL ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ İKTİSAT ANABİLİM DALI DOKTORA TEZİ THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND CONTAGION OF ITS EFFECTS ON EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES XIN ZHAO 2520160020 TEZ DANIŞMANI PROF. DR. MEHMET KUTLUĞHAN SAVAŞ ÖKTE İSTANBUL, 2019 ÖZ GLOBAL FİNANSAL KRİZ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN PİYASALARA BULAŞMA ETKİSİ Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD ve seçilen 15 gelişmekte olan piyasalara ait borsalar için küresel krizin bulaşma etkilerini belirlemek ve ayrıca ABD ve hedeflenen borsalar arasındaki koşullu korelasyonun belirleyicilerini ve bulaşma kanallarını araştırmaktır. Çalışma 03.01.2000 – 29.07.2016 periyodu olmak üzeri uzun bir süreyi kapsamaktadır. Ekonomideki bulaşma etkisine dair çalışmaların literatür taramasından sonra, gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerine ait borsaları ve küresel finansal krizin sonuçlarını inceleyen bir çerçeve oluşturulmuştur. Ekonomi açısından, 2 hiyerarşiyi içeren ekonomik ve sosyal göstergelerin, gelişmekte olan piyasaların ortak ve farklı karakterlerini yakalayabildiğine ilişkin 31 gösterge göz önünde bulundurulmuştur. Borsa açısından, 4 boyutlu ve 9 göstergeli iki seviyeli bir hiyerarşi çerçevesi oluşturulmuştur. Daha sonra, bulaşma etkisini ve kanallarını belirlemek için farklı yöntemler uygulanmıştır. Öncelikle uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını göstermek amacıyla, 1. seviyede bütünleşik olan Johansson Eş bütünleşme testi uygulanmış fakat birçok market için uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilememiştir. İkinci olarak, borsalar arasındaki kısa vadeli korelasyonu incelemek için, çok değişkenli VAR modeli, Granger-Nedensellik testi ve etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması yöntemleri günlük hisse senedi getirilerine uygulanmıştır. Farklı borsalar arasında Granger nedensellik korelasyonları, eşgüdüm ve karşılıklı bağımlılık tespit edilmiştir. Ek olarak, coğrafi konsantrasyona dair güçlü kanıtları bulunmuştur. Daha da önemlisi, Temmuz 2000 - 016 döneminin tamamını kriz öncesi, kriz ve kriz sonrası olmak üzere üç alt döneme ayırarak günlük hisse senedi getirilerine göre DCC- GARCH modeli kullanılmıştır. DCC-GARCH modelinden tahmin edilen dinamik koşullu korelasyonu (DCC) analiz etmek için t-testi kullanılmış, seçilen tüm borsalara ABD'den bulaşma etkileri iii tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, dış şokların DCC'ler üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmak için kukla değişkenler eklenerek DCC tahmin edilmiştir ve küresel finansal krizden kaynaklanan bulaşma etkisinin varlığı ikinci kez onaylanmıştır. DCC'nin belirleyicilerini ve kanallarını incelemek amacıyla, hem temel hem de finansal perspektiften kapsamlı bir çalışma gerçekleştirilerek bulaşma kanallarına dair literatür boşluğu doldurulmuştur. DCCX-GARCH modeli VIX, CDS ve TED dışsal değişkenler eklenerek günlük verilere uygulanmıştır. TED ve DCC arasında negatif ilişki varken, VIX'teki artışın DCC artışına neden olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak, CDS’in anlamlılığı borsadan borsaya farklılık göstermektedir. İhracat, ithalat, enflasyon, faiz oranı ve sanayi üretimi gibi değişkenlere ait aylık verilerle temel bulaşma kanalları incelemek için panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar ihracat, enflasyon, endüstriyel üretim ve faiz oranlarının temel bulaşma kanallarını etkileyen önemli ekonomik faktörler olduğunu göstermektedir. Araştırma sonuçları, varlık tahsisini yönetmek ve potansiyel riskleri önlemek için politika yapıcılar ve yatırımcılar için anlamlıdır. Anahtar kelimeler: Global Finansal Kriz’in Bulaşma Etkisi, DCC(X)-GARCH, Bulaşma Kanalları, VAR Tahminlemesi, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Etki-Tepki Analizi, Varyans Ayrıştırması, Panel Veri Analizi. iv ABSTRACT THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND CONTAGION OF ITS EFFECTS ON EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES The global financial crisis (GFC) profoundly influenced almost all countries and markets in the world, and the consequences are persistent and immense. The financial contagion effect has become an essential and popular topic. This study identified the GFC contagion effects from the U.S to 15 selected emerging stock markets, and furthermore to investigate the contagion channels and determinants of the conditional correlation between the U.S. and selected emerging stock markets. It covers the period from 1/3/2000 to 7/29/2016. After the literature review of contagion studies, we established two frameworks consisting of different levels and the main economic and stock market indicators to review emerging market economies and the stock market. In addition, we examine the consequences of the global financial crisis. In terms of the economics, economic, social& welfare indicators that include two hierarchies, 31 indicators were considered to capture the common and different characters of the emerging market economies. In terms of the stock market, a two-level hierarchy framework was built that included four dimensions and nine indicators. It is meaningful to investigate how the financial crisis impacted on the different emerging markets, which vary from each other. After that, we applied different methods to identify the contagion effect and contagion channels. Firstly, considering the long term, we applied Johansson Co-integration to the stock price with integration in level one. However, there is no long term relationship for most of the selected stock markets. Secondly, to examine the short- term correlation between stock markets, we applied a Multivariate VAR model, a Granger-Causality test and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis within a VAR model to the daily stock returns. We found Granger causality correlations, co-movement and interdependence among different stock markets. In addition, strong evidence of geographic concentration was observed. Importantly, to capture further time-variation in contagion effects and dynamic linkages among equity v markets, a superior DCC-GARCH model was employed with the daily stock returns by dividing the entire period 1/3/2000-7/29/2016 into three sub-sample periods, namely: pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis. By comparing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) estimated from DCC- GARHC model by t-test, we identified the contagion effects from the U.S. to all selected emerging stock markets. Furthermore, we analyzed DCCs by adding dummy variables to investigate how the external shocks impacted on the DCCs and confirmed the contagion effect from the global financial crisis. Furthermore, to examine the determinants and channels of the DCC, from financial and fundamentally two perspectives, we did a comprehensive study and filled the gap of the contagion channel study. We applied DCCX-GARCH model to daily stock return data, by simultaneously adding VIX, CDS spread, and TED spread as the exogenous variables. We found the rise of VIX leading DCC increase, while finding a negative relationship between TED and DCC. However, CDS is significant but varies between different stock markets. In parallel, Panel data analysis based on the monthly data was employed to examine the fundamental contagion channels by adding export, import, inflation, interest rate, and industrial production. The results show that exports, inflation, industrial production, and interest rate are essential economic factors which determine the fundamental contagion channels. Our research results are meaningful to policymakers and investors to adjust asset allocation and prevent potential risk. Keywords: Global Financial Crisis Contagion, DCC(X)-GARCH, Contagion Channels, VAR Estimation, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition Analysis, Panel Analysis. vi ÖNSÖZ Tez çalışmamın her aşamasında katkılarını ve desteklerini esirgemeyen herkese duyduğum minneti ifade etmeyi borç bilirim . Öncelikle tüm kurul profesörlerimize harcadıkları zaman ve sahip oldukları sabır için içtenlikle teşekkür ederim . Danışmanım Prof. Dr Mehmet Kutluğhan Savaş ÖKTE’ ye olan içten şükranlarımı belirtmek isterim. Kendisi yüksek toleransı ,zengin bilgisi ,tavsiyeleri ve sabrı ile tüm tez sürecimde bana yardımcı oldular.Araştırma ve yazma hususlarında beni özgür bırakıp faydalı fikirleri ve kontrol noktasında yardımları ile çalışmamın ilerlemesine katkıda bulundular. Prof. Dr. Muhittin Kaplan’a da özel teşekkürlerimi sunuyorum. Kendisi ekonometri alanında işinin ehli olan akademisyenlerimizden biridir. Neredeyse tüm öğrendiğim metodolojileri kendisinden öğrendim. Method seçimi ve problem çözümünde katkıları ile bana yardımcı oldular. İyi ve özverili bir insan olup her zaman öğrencileri için elinden geleni yapar. Çalıştığım kurum olan İstanbul Aydın Üniversitesi’ne ve Mütevelli Heyet Başkanı Dr. Mustafa Aydın’a olan teşekkür ve minnetimi yazılı olarak da belirtmek isterim. Dr. Mustafa Aydın , hayatımda tanıma fırsatı bulduğum en bilge ve değerleri insanlardan biridir.Bana karşı anlayışlı , gerekli konularda yardımcı ve destekleyici biridir. Öğrenci olarak tanımlanmam hususunda yaşadığım problemde yardımcı olmuştur ve hiç tükenmeyecek minnettarlığımın sebeplerinden biri de konu üzerinden şekillenmiştir. Bende emeği geçen önceki profesörüm , Prof. Cemil Kuzey’e yardımlarından ötürü teşekkür ederim. Stata programını ilk kez kendisinden öğrendim ve benim ekonometrik analiz ile ilgilenmem noktasında teşvik ettiler . Tez sürecimde ne zaman yardıma ihtiyacım olduysa kendisi yardım etmek için hazırdı ve gerektiği noktalarda birçok akademisyen ile benim sorularım üzerinden iletişim kurup ,yardımcı oldu. Şimdi vii kendileri Türkiye’den uzakta Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nde yaşamına devam etmektedir.Ayrıca önceki danışmanım Prof. Vildan Zehra ‘ya zor zamanlarımda beni fiziksel ve
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