Decision for Incident
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Red Incident Decision Published 08/01/20 10:56 Table of Contents 1. Decision ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1. Decision Summary................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2. Incident Information............................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Weather....................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.4. Modeling..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.5. Risk ................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 1.6. Benefits..................................................................................................................................................................... 14 1.7. Objectives ................................................................................................................................................................ 15 1.8. Course of Action ................................................................................................................................................... 27 1.9. Cost ............................................................................................................................................................................ 41 1.10. Rationale................................................................................................................................................................ 42 Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 1 / 44 1. Decision 1.1. Decision Summary Decision Information NAME VALUE Published 08/01/2020 10:56 CDT Estimated Cost $47,000,000 Incident Owner(s) josh eichamer, Eamon Engber, Clint Isbell, Daniel Ostmann, Ted McArthur, Roberto Beltran, Patrick Doyle Editor(s) Robert Sanders Reviewer(s) Approver(s) Nolan Colegrove Natl Preparedness Level 3 Decision History Editor Name Action Date (CDT) Comment Colegrove, Nolan Published 08/01/2020 10:56 Colegrove, Nolan Approved 07/31/2020 20:37 Beltran, Roberto Review 07/31/2020 18:16 Requested Beltran, Roberto Review 07/31/2020 18:15 Requested Beltran, Roberto Created 07/31/2020 15:35 Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 2 / 44 1.2. Incident Information Incident Information NAME VALUE Incident Name Red Unique Fire Identifier 2020-CASRF-000643 Responsible Unit Name Six Rivers National Forest FireCode NBS2 P-Code Point of Origin 41.19449N / 123.4578 W Incident Size 1,062acres Latest WFDSS Perimeter Size 1,062acres Incident Cause Unknown Incident Type Wildfire Incident Discovery 07/27/2020 08:23 Contained Controlled Out Jurisdictional Unit CASRF - Six Rivers National Forest Jurisdictional Agency(s) USFS Geographic Area (prep level) Northern California (3) josh eichamer, Eamon Engber, Clint Isbell, Daniel Ostmann, Ted McArthur, Roberto Beltran, Patrick Owner Name(s) Doyle Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 3 / 44 Incident Map Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 4 / 44 1.3. Weather Fire Weather Zone Forecast 000 FNUS56 KEKA 312213 FWFEKA FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Eureka CA 313 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 2020 .DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will persist across inland areas for the next week, with mostly light onshore winds expected, which will be locally gusty through some of the river valleys each afternoon, but very typical for July. Cool, cloudy, and humid conditions will persist along the coast, with only minor changes in the depth of the marine layer expected...perhaps trending slightly deeper for Saturday compared to Friday. Still have not included any thunderstorm chances in the forecast for next week, but would not rule out some stray mountain thunderstorms around Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday. CAZ203-204-011315- Upper Smith-Lower Middle Klamath- 313 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 2020 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...Mostly clear. Patchy smoke late in the night. * Min Temperature....... Valleys/lwr slopes...52-57 Ridges/upr slopes....55-58 * Max Humidity....... Valleys/lwr slopes...70-85 percent Ridges/upr slopes....39-49 percent * 20-Foot Winds... Valleys/lwr slopes...Southwest winds 5 to 11 mph in the evening...becoming downslope/downvalley 2 to 5 mph. Ridges/upr slopes....Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph...shifting to the northeast 5 mph after midnight. * LAL....1. * Chc of Wetting Rain...0 percent. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather...Sunny. Patchy smoke. * Max Temperature....... Valleys/lwr slopes...82-90 Ridges/upr slopes....68-76 * Min Humidity....... Valleys/lwr slopes...31-39 percent Ridges/upr slopes....38-48 percent * 20-Foot Winds... Valleys/lwr slopes...Upslope/upvalley 2 to 5 mph...becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Ridges/upr slopes....Northeast winds 5 mph...shifting to the west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. * LAL....1. * Chc of Wetting Rain...0 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather...Mostly clear. Patchy smoke. * Min Temperature....... Valleys/lwr slopes...54-59 Ridges/upr slopes....56-60 * Max Humidity....... Valleys/lwr slopes...68-83 percent Ridges/upr slopes....46-56 percent * 20-Foot Winds... Valleys/lwr slopes...West winds 5 to 9 mph. Ridges/upr slopes....Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph...shifting to the north 5 to 7 mph after midnight. * LAL....1. * Chc of Wetting Rain...0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...Sunny. Patchy smoke. * Max Temperature....... Valleys/lwr slopes...82-90 Ridges/upr slopes....67-75 * Min Humidity....... Valleys/lwr slopes...35-45 percent Ridges/upr slopes....40-50 percent * 20-Foot Winds... Valleys/lwr slopes...Upslope/upvalley 2 to 4 mph...becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Ridges/upr slopes....Northeast winds 5 mph...shifting to the northwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. * LAL....1. * Chc of Wetting Rain...0 percent. $$ .EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 5 / 44 Fire Weather Zone Forecast ...Northwest California Coast... .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower to mid 50s. Highs 62 to 68. Northwest winds 5 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower to mid 50s. Highs 58 to 66. Northwest winds 5 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs 60 to 69. Northwest winds 5 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs 61 to 69. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs 62 to 70. ...Northwest California Interior... .MONDAY...Clear. Lows 55 to 63. Highs 81 to 94. Northwest winds 5 mph. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 54 to 62. Highs 81 to 94. Northwest winds 5 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 55 to 63. Highs 82 to 95. Northwest winds 5 mph. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 54 to 62. Highs 84 to 92. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 54 to 62. Highs 84 to 92. .6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Thursday August 6 THROUGH Monday August 10, 2020... FOR NW CALIF...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. $$ visit us at www.weather.gov/eureka Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 6 / 44 1.4. Modeling Published 08/01/20 10:56 Decision for 'Red' Page 7 / 44 1.5. Risk Relative Risk NAME VALUE Relative Risk High Duration High Saved By Beltran, Roberto Completed 07/31/2020 13:52 CDT Relative Risk Notes indirect attack planning areas will be very large. Values Notes Multiple Values at risk for more than one Native American Tribe as well as other historical vales and wilderness values. Fire may have significant impacts on subsistence activities for tribes. Fire is burning in an area where the Klamath, Shasta-Trinity and Six Rivers NF all come together. No occupied structures threatened immediately, though one historic cabin is threatened. Fire has high potential of reaching of reaching values, will take 2+ burn periods to reach historic cabin from 7-31-20. Media Coverage may or may not be favorable; COVID-19 and coupled with smoke will not lead to favorable media coverage. Or message to the public as well as our strategies and tactics will be the key to favorable media coverage. Hazards Notes Unburned area heavy dead and down component. Live fuels still reasonable. Dead and down and terrain to carry the fire. Some fire history for the Salmon Fire area, virtually non in the area of the Red Fire Live fuel moisture are relatively high for this time of year, but will soon be dropping dramatically to seasonal norms. Moderate fire behavior ad short range spotting for now, fire activity is likely to increase over the next few weeks from 7-31-20. Terrain poses significant problems in some areas to holding actions, but not everywhere. Weather will be favorable in the short term, but unfavorable in the long term as it gets hotter and drier. Probability Notes Average to date with fuels. Some barriers and logical lines from historical fires to support indirect attack. In a drying trend. We are in the early portion of our historic fire season in the area, peak burning activity is yet to come, and we can expect eat winds in late August. Relative Risk Chart Published 08/01/20