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Early Warning Report Warning Early Contents June 2005 MACEDONIA Early Warning REPORT The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect the offi cial position of the United Nations Development Programme. The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expressions of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Na- tions Development Programme or the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city of area, or of its authors, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of fi rm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of United Nations. Editors Group: Violeta Petroska – Beska – Interethnic relations Abdylmenaf Bexheti – Socio-economic situation Saso Ordanoski – Regional stability Vlado Popovski – Personal and public security Blerim Reka – Political and Institutional stability UNDP Support Team: Dritan Krifca, Programme Offi cer Milos Kostovski, Programme Associate Nenad Markovic, Project Manager Jasmina Rajcanovska, Project Assistant Bekim Hoxha, Administrative Assistant 2 EARLY WARNING REPORT WARNING EARLY CONTENTS FOREWORD ......................................................................................................................................................5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................6 1. POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL STABILITY ......................................................................................11 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 1.1 CONFIDENCE: RELIGIOUS VS. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 13 1.2 TWO UNANIMITIES AND ONE NON-UNANIMITY .............................................................................................................................................. 14 1.3 LOW RATE OF THE CONFIDENCE TO THE POLITICAL LEADERS CONTINUED ......................................................................................................... 15 1.4 POLITICAL STABILITY: MACEDONIA, REGION AND INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ........................................................................................... 15 1.5 RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION ...............................................................................................................17 2.1 UNEMPLOYMENT, POVERTY AND CORRUPTION ................................................................................................................................................. 19 2.2 THE CHALENGES THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD MEET IN THE FIELD OF ECONOMY ............................................................................................. 22 2.3 THE FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND THE LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................. 22 2.4 THE REALISTIC SECTOR ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.5 THE FOREIGN SECTOR—THE FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONS ................................................................................................................................. 23 2.6 THE LOW LEVEL OF THE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PERSISTS ..................................................................................................................... 24 2.7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 24 CONTENTS 3 3. INTERETHNIC RELATIONS ......................................................................................................................27 3.1 PERCEPTIONS OF INTERETHNIC RELATIONS ....................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.2 EFFECTS OF THE OHRID FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ........................................................................................................................................... 31 3.3 ETHNIC DISTANCES ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 3.4 FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO ETHNIC TENSIONS ............................................................................................................................................. 33 3.5 LOYALTY AND NATIONAL IDENTITY ..................................................................................................................................................................... 33 3.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 34 4. PERSONAL AND PUBLIC SECURITY ......................................................................................................37 EARLY WARNING REPORT WARNING EARLY 4.1 PERSONAL AND FAMILY SECURITY ................................................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 THE SECURITY OF THE LOCAL AND OF THE GENERAL COMMUNITY (SECURITY BOTH OF THE MUNICIPALITY AND THE COUNTRY) ..... 41 4.3 RISK FACTORS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 4.4 CITIZEN BEHAVIOURAL PATTERNS IN CASE OF THREAT .................................................................................................................................. 43 4.5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 44 5. REGIONAL SECURITY ...............................................................................................................................47 5.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 5.2 KOSOVO ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 5.3 MACEDONIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH—SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH ........................................................................................................ 51 5.4 MACEDONIA AND GREECE, THE “NAME ISSUE” ................................................................................................................................................ 52 5.5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................................................... 52 6. ANNEX ........................................................................................................................................................55 INDICATORS Political and Institutional stability Confi dence in the President ▲ Confi dence in the Parliament ▲ Confi dence in the Government ∆ Confi dence in the courts of justice/prosecution ∆ Confi dence in the Municipal governments/administrations ∆ Perception of possibility for joining EU in 5 years ▲ Trustworthiness of the media reporting about political issues ∆ Socio-economic situation Unemployed, registered with Employment Bureau ∇ Unemployed, not registered ◄► Safety of the present job ∆ Living standard ∆ Readiness to leave Macedonia to live in another country ∆ Trustworthiness of the media reporting about economic issues ◄► Interethnic relations Perception of the current interethnic relations ∆ Perception of media contributing to ethnic tension ▼ Perception of politicians contributing to ethnic tension ∇ Support future public protests, strikes demonstrations against incidents/actions ▼ related to the ethnic questions Trustworthiness of the media reporting about ethnic issues ∇ Personal and public security Crime rate ∇ Confi dence in the Police ▲ Confi dence in the Army ∆ Public perception of the situation in terms of personal security ∇ Public trust in security structures and their reforms ∇ Legend: ◄► - no changes no changes = between 0%-0.5% ∆ - slight improvement slight = between 0.5%-5% ∇ - slight deterioration ▲ - substantial improvement substantial = above 5% ▼ - substantial deterioration Source: public opinion poll by BRIMA Gallup agency FOREWORD his is the third Early Warning Report from the new edition initiated in 2004 in Macedo- T nia1, or the ninth overall report that has been published since the Report was estab- lished for the fi rst time in 2000.
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