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Mobility 2025 and Beyond Megatrends, Technologies and Implications For

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Mobility 2025 and Beyond Megatrends, Technologies and Implications For 1 E-mobility 2030 Megatrends, technologies and implications for CPFL A Energia na Cidade do Futuro Campinas, October 4th, 2013 Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart, Senior Partner Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 1 2 Contents A Urban Mobility 2030 B New powertrain technologies C Battery and fuel cell economics New business models in infrastructure provision and D connectivity services Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 2 A. Urban Mobility 2030 Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 3 4 The next decades are characterized by higher share of urban population and increasing mobility "URBAN" SHARE OF GLOBAL POPULATION GLOBAL MOBILITY [bn p-km/p.a.1)] +22% +96% 9,202 100,000 20% 90,000 7,558 30% 6,831 80,000 8% 6,084 70,000 44% 23% 49% 60,000 50,000 Rural 53% 26% 40,000 70% 8% 30,000 26% 56% 49% 51% 20,000 27% Urban 47% 10% 10,000 30% 40% 34% 0 2000 2010 2020 2050 1960 1990 2020 2050 North America South America Europe Asia & Africa 1) Person kilometres per year, motorized and non-motorized Source: US Census Bureau; UN Population Division; Schaefer/Victor 2000 Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 4 After 2025, non-OECD countries are projected to represent the majority of global automotive mobility PASSENGER TRAVEL BY MOTORIZED MODE (2005 vs. 2050) [bn p-km/p.a.] COMMENTS 70,000 3-wheelers > Total passenger travel with 2-wheelers motorized modes expected 60,000 Light trucks to rise from 6K km/p.a. per person in 2005 to 9K km/p.a. 50,000 per person in 2050 Cars 1) 40,000 LDV > Non-OECD per capita mobility just one-third of OECD per capita mobility by 2050 30,000 Mini buses > Travel growth (in OECD and 20,000 non-OECD ) dominated by Buses LDVs, two-wheelers and air 10,000 Rail travel. Mass transit also growing, but modal share Air 0 declines as LDV travel grows OECD OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD much more quickly 2005 2050 2005 2050 1) Light Duty Vehicles Source: IEA/OECD (Baseline scenario) Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 5 6 While there is a clear trend towards "Megacities", not all evolve in the same direction DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES "Ecumenopolis"/"developed" megacities "Developing" megacities "Eco-Cities" "Re-development" of cities "Evolving" cities "Planned" cities > "Return of elderly" to urban areas > 40-50% of world > Low absolute amount, but increasing > "Urban villages" and "compact cities" with sub-urban population in 2030 areas and rural areas in-between > Increase of public > Restrictions regarding energy types used and > Cities promote public transport and restrict individual transport, but railways individual ownerships use of vehicles etc. often missing ("planned mobility") > Increasing demand for low-cost transport Source: Press; Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 6 7 The changes in demographics, urban development and regulations will lead to new mobility solutions DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Compact Sub-urban "Outside Evolving Stage of Rural areas "Eco"-cities cities areas cities/ rural metropolitan urban areas areas/cities development Population development Higher share of seniors/elderly Larger low-income/middle class, families 1 "New" personal urban 1 1 mobility 2 Seamless multi modal 2 2 mobility Mobility needs/ 3 4 "Good enough" personal a "Advanced cars" solutions 4-wheelers b "Elderly" 5 Low-price mobility support PHEV, CNG, PHEV, CNG, CNG, EV, Gasoline, CNG Gasoline, CNG 1) EV (FCEV) EV Energy used (FCEV) (FCEV) Gasoline (EV) (EV) 1) EV, PHEV etc. and for LCV, 2-, 3-wheelers, buses Source: Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 7 8 Compact, safe and comfortable solutions required for urban mobility will lead to demand for special city vehicles 1 "New" urban mobility: New vehicle concepts to provide "sufficient" individual mobility APPLICATION CUSTOMER CONCEPT ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENTS CHARACTERISTICS > Compact cities / sub- > Very high safety and urban areas developed comfort requirements countries, wealthier > Full use of transit time parts of evolving cities in cars for work or > Mobility within cities, hobby transit between cities, Source: GM, Toyota national / international > Zero emission > Restricted car usage / > Quasi-autonomous driving parking etc. > Also part of car sharing concepts and multi-modal mobility systems Source: Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 8 9 With increasing hassle of owning cars in future megacities, seamless intermodal mobility concepts become more important 2 Seamless "Multi-modal mobility": convenient door-to-door mobility without ownership APPLICATION CUSTOMER CONCEPT ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENTS CHARACTERISTICS Source: Cisco > Compact cities / sub- > Use of different modes urban areas developed of transportation and countries, wealthier vehicles parts of evolving cities > Convenient and > Mobility within cities, seamless mobile transit between cities planning, reservation, > Restricted car usage/ access and payment > Newest concepts integrate different mobility solutions and parking etc. > Door-to-door mobility transportation modes ("mobility aggregators"), integration > Integration of public and > Possibility to integrate with public transport private transport own vehicles , e.g. > Service access over mobile and stationary channels, Peer2Peer-car-sharing integration of various interfaces/value added services Source: Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 9 10 Autonomous transit support mobility in urban areas and long-range endurance vehicles in country-side of developed countries, 3 "Advanced cars": new long-range driving and elderly support APPLICATION CUSTOMER CONCEPT ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENTS CHARACTERISTICS > Suburban and rural > "Barrier-free" transit areas in developed especially for elderly countries persons > Development of public > Full flexibility (timing, transport stalled, little door-to-door) alternative fully flexible > Full use of transit time in transportation modes cars, "easy-to-use" > (Semi-)autonomous vehicles or platooning concepts > High safety and comfort > Very easy handling ("start/stop button") requirements, no high- > Communication with road infrastructure/other vehicles speed requirements > PHEV/REEV, FCV1) etc. likely 1) Plug-in hybrid /Range Extended-Electrical Vehicle, Fuel-Call-EV only if w/o Pt Source: Roland Berger analysis Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 10 11 With raising income levels, "good enough" 4 wheelers will become increasingly important for urban areas in developing countries 4 "Good enough" 4-wheelers for low-income / middle class in developing countries APPLICATION CUSTOMER CONCEPT ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENTS CHARACTERISTICS > Urban areas and small/ > Focus in cheap mid-sized cities transport, but demand > Slow traffic for "modern" cars > Public transport > Affordability important, gradually installed inferior safety and comfort > Modern styling, info- > Very low cost car, but not necessity very small (should fit at tainment capabilities least four to five people) > Medium distance > "Good enough" concepts, focusing on the right factors > Gasoline, gas, bio fuels, EV Source: Volkswagen, GM, Toyota, Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 11 12 Low-price emission-free mobility concepts to enable personal mobility where public transport is not available 5 "Low-price mobility": concepts to replace (conventional) bikes and walking APPLICATION CUSTOMER CONCEPT ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENTS CHARACTERISTICS > Rural and urban areas > Driving distance not in in developing countries focus with little public > Focus on cheap trans- transport port (also of goods) > Inferior road > No new functional infrastructure and/for needs crammed cities > Low-priced mobility enabling further movement than walking/biking distance > Inferior to 4-wheeler speed, size, driving distance, safety and comfort > Low-cost energy (fuels or electricity) Source: Volkswagen, GM, Toyota, Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 12 B. New powertrain technologies Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 13 14 After the initial hype surrounding e-mobility, we have entered a phase of consolidation – only way forward in long-term Phases of innovation development – E-mobility Visibility HYPE CONSOLIDATION MATURATION Time 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 … 2025 > High media attention > Scale-down of public funding > Introduction of electric vehicles to the market > Set-up of governmental initiatives > Exit of existing/ new players > Emergence of sustainable business models (e.g. NPE) from the market > Entrance or re-entrance of players that opted out > Entrance of new OEMs/ OES > Break-up of initial alliances/ JVs of the initial market development phase > Set-up of alliances/ joint ventures > Emergence of dominant players MAIN EVENTS MAIN between existing/ new players and countries Source: Press; Roland Berger Mobility 2030 and beyond_SHOWN.pptx 14 15 All OEMs will use similar levers to reduce their CO2 emissions, however, primary focus on ICE optimization due to cost reasons Key levers to meet CO2 and emission reduction targets Importance for OEMs' CO reduction strategies ICE optimization levers 2 > Combustion improvement through new valve and injection technologies 1 > Downsizing engine by boosting (turbochargers) and reducing displacement > Optimizing exhaust line to reduce back pressure > Other marginal technologies such as low friction and cylinder deactivation Powertrain electrification levers > Micro-hybrids with a strong development of stop/start (90% in 2020 in EU) 2 > Mild hybrids as a significant intermediary hybrid technology (10% in 2020 in EU) > Full hybrid mainly in Japan and US
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