Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future i Series on Technology and Social Priorities NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING CitiesCitiesCities andandand TheirTheirTheir VitalVitalVital SystemsSystemsSystems Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future Jesse H. Ausubel and Robert Herman Editors NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future ii National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sci- ences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. Funds for the National Academy of Engineering's Symposium Series on Technology and Social Priorities were provided by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Academy's Technology Agenda Program. This publication has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee. The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and are not presented as the views of the Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, or the National Academy of Engineering. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cities and their vital systems. (Series on technology and social priorities) Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. Cities and towns—United States—Growth— Congresses. 2. Infrastructure (Economics)— United States—Congresses. 3. United States—Public works— Congresses. I. Ausubel, Jesse. II. Herman, Robert. III. National Academy of Engineering. IV. Series. HT371.C585 1988 363`.0973 88-12517 ISBN 0-309-03786-7 Copyright © 1988 by the National Academy of Sciences No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the United States Government. Printed in the United States of America Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future iii ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY Chairman ROBERT M. WHITE, President, National Academy of Engineering Members RUTHERFORD ARIS, Regents' Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota DAVID P. BILLINGTON, Professor of Civil Engineering. School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University HARVEY BROOKS, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy, Emeritus, Harvard University HARLAN CLEVELAND, Professor of Public Affairs and Planning, University of Minnesota DONALD N. FREY, Chairman and CEO, Bell & Howell Company JOHN H. GIBBONS, Director, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress MARY L. GOOD, President, Engineered Materials Research, Allied-Signal Inc. HENRY R. LINDEN, Executive Advisor, Gas Research Institute JAMES BRIAN QUINN, William and Josephine Buchanan Professor of Management, Amos Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College FREDERICK C. ROBBINS, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University WALTER G. VINCENTI, Professor Emeritus of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Stanford University ALVIN M. WEINBERG, Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future iv Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future PREFACE v Preface Infrastructure is the term applied to large-scale engineering systems and includes a variety of public works, such as roads, bridges, and sewer systems, as well as privately managed utilities such as electric power and telephone service. Much publicity has been given infrastructure in recent years as news of collapsing bridges and crowded airports makes evident our dependence on infrastructure. Recent studies have considered the urgent problems of financing and maintaining current public works. However, what of major long-range perspectives on infrastructure needs and development? To address these issues, the National Academy of Engineering conducted a workshop entitled "The Evolution of Future Infrastructures" in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, in August 1986. Focusing primarily on problems inherent in urban areas, the workshop aimed to strengthen and focus research on infrastructure; to raise critical infrastructure issues for society, industry, and government; and to describe better for people the new sociotechnical systems that may grow around and for them. It also attempted to identify technological possibilities for the next 30-50 years in systems such as transportation, communication, water, and energy. The discussions at the workshop having persuaded us that a volume on infrastructures would be useful, we continued with the project, focusing on this book. We deliberately adopted an expansive definition of infrastructure. While the emphasis in the book is on the great networks and nodes that immediately come to mind in such areas as power supply and transportation, we also seek to understand other aspects of our built en Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future PREFACE vi vironment that are lasting and, more generally, what it is that physically makes up or characterizes a city. We emphasize the technology, history, and theory of infrastructure. The very important issues of politics and finance are alluded to, but to be covered adequately, would require a separate volume of equal size. Art and design considerations similarly merit in-depth consideration beyond what is possible in this single volume. I would like to thank Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation for their funding of this activity. The Evolution of Future Infrastructures Workshop was the sixth in a series of events conducted under grants given the NAE to pursue studies of importance to technology and society. Certainly no subject is more fundamental to society or more affected by technology than our major infrastructural systems. I believe that this volume has far-reaching implications and want to express my sincere thanks to the participants in the workshop for their creative contributions and to the authors who persevered through a lengthy process of revision and review. I would also like to note insightful contributions by Alfred Blumstein, Leonard Duhl, John Eberhard, Denos Gazis, and Richard Rothery, whose comments I hope are captured in the introductory essay. David Billington and Thomas Larson provided valuable responses to the draft essays. Special thanks are due Robert Herman, chairman of the workshop, for his imagination and enthusiasm, and Jesse H. Ausubel, director of the NAE Program Office, for the planning and execution of this activity, including a remarkable adventure across Vineyard Sound that revealed a resilient local transport infrastructure, and to both of them for their excellent editing of the volume. I also want to express my gratitude to the Advisory Committee on Technology and Society (p. iii) for its oversight, to Penelope J. Gibbs for administration of the activity, and to NAE editor H. Dale Langford and Caroline G. Anderson, administrative secretary with the NAE Program Office, for their work in preparing the manuscript for publication. ROBERT M. WHITE PRESIDENT NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future CONTENTS vii Contents 1 Cities and Infrastructure: Synthesis and Perspectives 1 Robert Herman and Jesse H. Ausubel 2 The Dynamic Characterization of Cities 22 Robert Herman, Siamak A. Ardekani, Shekhar Govind, and Edgar Dona 3 How Cities Grew in the Western World: A Systems Approach 71 Lynn Hollen Lees and Paul M. Hohenberg 4 Urban Systems and Historical Path Dependence 85 W. Brian Arthur 5 An Economic Model of Urban Growth 98 Martin J. Beckmann 6 Growth of U.S. Cities and Recent Trends in Urban Real Estate Val- 108 ues John S. Adams 7 Infrastructures for Movement: Past and Future 146 Cesare Marchetti 8 Dynamics and Replacement of U.S. Transport Infrastructures 175 Nebojsa Nakicenovic Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future CONTENTS viii 9 Air Traffic Congestion: Problems and Prospects 222 Thomas Craig 10 Combining Communications and Computing: Telematics Infrastruc- 233 tures Dean Gillette 11 Reflections on the Telecommunications Infrastructure 249 Harvey Brooks 12 Water Supply and Distribution: The Next 50 Years 258 Royce Hanson 13 The Urban Wastewater