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Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army Study Authors (In Alphabetical Order)

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Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army Study Authors (In Alphabetical Order) United States Army War College Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army Study Authors (in alphabetical order) Colonel Max Brosig, U.S. Army National Guard Colonel Parker Frawley, U.S. Army Dr. Andrew Hill, U.S. Army War College Prof. Molly Jahn, University of Wisconsin-Madison, NASA HARVEST Consortium Colonel Michael Marsicek, U.S. Air Force Dr. Aubrey Paris, Princeton University Mr. Matthew Rose, U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and Major, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel Amar Shambaljamts, Mongolian Army Ms. Nicole Thomas, U.S. Army Scan this code to view the full document online. Executive Summary Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army Current conversations about climate change and its im- sult in the migration of large segments of the popula- pacts are often rancorous and politically charged. As tion. Rising seas will displace tens (if not hundreds) of an organization that is, by law, non-partisan, the Depart- millions of people, creating massive, enduring insta- ment of Defense (DoD) is precariously unprepared for bility. This migration will be most pronounced in those the national security implications of climate change-in- regions where climate vulnerability is exacerbated by duced global security challenges. This study examines weak institutions and governance and underdeveloped the implications of climate change for the United States civil society. Recent history has shown that mass hu- Army. This includes national security challenges asso- man migrations can result in increased propensity for ciated with or worsened by climate change, and orga- conflict and turmoil as new populations intermingle with nizational challenges arising from climate change-re- and compete against established populations. More lated issues in the domestic environment. Given that, frequent extreme weather events will also increase de- the study’s starting point is the implications of climate mand for military humanitarian assistance. change for the U.S. Army, and the Army is therefore the focus of the analysis and recommendations. That said, Salt water intrusion into coastal areas and changing much of the analysis involves DoD and other elements weather patterns will also compromise or eliminate fresh of the government, and most of the Army-specific rec- water supplies in many parts of the world. Additionally, ommendations have parallels that apply to other military warmer weather increases hydration requirements. This services. means that in expeditionary warfare, the Army will need to supply itself with more water. This significant logis- The study itself did not involve original research on the tical burden will be exacerbated on a future battlefield nature or magnitude of climate change. The analysis that requires constant movement due to the ubiquity of assumes, based on the preponderance of evidence adversarial sensors and their deep strike capabilities. available, that significant changes in climate have al- ready occurred, likely to worsen in the years ahead. A warming trend will also increase the range of insects The study did not look to ascribe causation to climate that are vectors of infectious tropical diseases. This, change (man-made or natural), as causation is distinct coupled with large scale human migration from tropical from effects and not pertinent to the approximately 50- nations, will increase the spread of infectious disease. year horizon considered for the study. The study does, The Army has tremendous logistical capabilities, unique however, assume that human behavior can mitigate in the world, in working in austere or unsafe environ- both the size and consequences of negative impacts ments. In the event of a significant infectious disease that result from climate change. outbreak (domestic or international), the Army is likely to be called upon to assist in the response and contain- Summary of Analysis ment. Initial findings of the study focus on changes to the Arctic ice will continue to melt in a warming climate. physical environment and the human response to those These Arctic changes present both challenges and op- changes. portunities. The decrease in Arctic sea ice and associat- ed sea level rise will bring conflicting claims to newly-ac- Sea level rise, changes in water and food security, and cessible natural resources. It will also introduce a new more frequent extreme weather events are likely to re- theater of direct military contact between an increasing- 1 ly belligerent Russia and other Arctic nations, including Summary of Recommendations the U.S. Yet the opening of the Arctic will also increase commercial opportunities. Whether due to increased In light of these findings, the military must consider commercial shipping traffic or expanded opportunities changes in doctrine, organization, equipping, and train- for hydrocarbon extraction, increased economic activity ing to anticipate changing environmental requirements. will drive a requirement for increased military expendi- Greater inter-governmental and inter-organizational co- tures specific to that region. In short, competition will operation, mandated through formal framework agree- increase. ments, will allow the DoD to anticipate those areas where future conflict is more likely to occur and to implement a The increased likelihood of more intense and longer du- campaign-plan-like approach to proactively prepare for ration drought in some areas, accompanied by great- likely conflict and mitigate the impacts of mass migra- er atmospheric heating, will put an increased strain on tion. Focused research and early funding of anticipated the aging U.S. power grid and further spur large scale future equipment and requirements will spread the cost human migration elsewhere. Power generation in U.S. of adaptation across multiple budget cycles, diminish hydroelectric and nuclear facilities will be affected. This the “sticker shock” and impacts to overall spending. dual attack on both supply and demand could create more frequent, widespread and enduring power grid Finally, the DoD must begin now to promulgate a culture failures, handicapping the U.S. economy. of environmental stewardship across the force. Lagging behind public and political demands for energy efficien- In addition to the changing environmental conditions cy and minimal environmental footprint will significantly that will contribute to a changing security environment, hamstring the Department’s efforts to face national se- climate change will likely also result in social, political, curity challenges. The Department will struggle to main- and market pressures that may profoundly affect the Ar- tain its positive public image and that will impact the my’s (and DoD’s) activities. Studies indicate that global military’s ability to receive the required funding to face society, including in the U.S., increasingly views climate the growing number of security challenges. change as a grave threat to security. As the electorate becomes more concerned about climate change, it fol- The recommendations of this study follow. lows that elected officials will, as well. This may result 1. THE ARMY OPERATING ENVIRONMENT in significant restrictions on military activities (in peace- time) that produce carbon emissions. In concert with 1.1 Problem: Hydration Challenges in a Contested these changes, consumer demands will drive market Environment adaptation. Businesses will focus on more environmen- tally sound products and practices to meet demand. Recommendation: The Army must develop ad- vanced technologies to capture ambient hu- The DoD does not currently possess an environmental- midity and transition technology from the United ly conscious mindset. Political and social pressure will States Army Research, Development, and Engi- eventually force the military to mitigate its environmental neering Command (RDECOM) that supports the impact in both training and wartime. Implementation of water sustainment tenants of decentralizing and these changes will be costly in effort, time and money. embedded, harvest water, and recycle and re- This is likely to occur just as the DoD is adjusting to use. changes in the security environment previously high- lighted. Implementation Timing: 6-10 Years Resource Requirement: Moderate 2 1.2 Problem: Lack of adequate preparation and co- Implementation Timing: 6-10 years (Virtual Re- herence in doctrine, training, and capabilities ality / Augmented Reality), 10+ years (alternate development to support effective Arctic opera- energy platforms). tions. Resource Requirements: Moderate to High. Recommendation: The Army and the Depart- ment of Defense must begin planning and im- plementing changes to training, equipment, 2. THE JOINT FORCE AND DoD doctrine and capabilities in anticipation of an ex- panded role in the Arctic associated with global 2.1 Problem: Lack of coordination and consolida- climate adaptation. tion in climate-change related intelligence. Implementation Timing: Now to 10+ Years. Recommendation: Advocate for a comprehen- sive organization, functional manager, technol- Resource Requirements: Moderate to High. ogy, and process review study to identify the current state of intelligence community agencies with regard to climate change, with the goal of formalizing Interagency coordination on Climate 1. THE ARMY INSTITUTION Change-related intelligence. 1.1 Problem: The Lack of a Culture of Environmen- Implementation Timing: Now tal Stewardship Resourcing Requirements: Low Recommendation: Army leadership must create a culture of environmental consciousness,
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