2008

theeffectHighlighting research and communication at the UK’s Tyndall Centre

Flower Show medal for climate change garden

Barriers to Forest carbon Metropolitan Coastal Finding out why adaptation trading emissions Simulator people fly more theeffect 2008

Directors Measuring impact

Tyndall Centre staff gathered last summer in authors and review editors. An impressive London for a party to celebrate the seven- contribution. year leadership of Professor Mike Hulme, Tyndall’s Founding Director at the University My Tyndall Centre colleagues are of East Anglia. It was at this time that I remarkably productive. In fact, the UK took over as Director, while Robert Watson Research Councils’ point this out in their Director: Professor Strategic Development: External Science Engineering: Professor Social Science: Distinguished Science Andrew Watkinson, Professor Robert Co-ordination: Jim Hall, University of Professor Katrina Adviser: Professor joined Tyndall as its Director of Strategy, in own assessment of the economic impact University of East Watson, University of Professor John Newcastle-upon-Tyne Brown, University of John Schellnhuber, addition to being the Chief Scientific Advisor of Tyndall; “Tyndall received 5% of NERC’s Anglia East Anglia Shepherd, University of East Anglia University of Potsdam Southampton to the UK Department of the Environment budget for Research and Collaborative and Rural Affairs (Defra). Centres but was responsible for 17% of its total mentions in Parliament, while scientific In the year-and-a-half that I have been publications are on a par with other Director, my Tyndall Centre colleagues research for its level of funding” Professor Andrew Watkinson Tyndall Research Programmes have participated in the UN process for collating climate change knowledge from So, that is where Tyndall has been but Living with Environmental Change, a joint around the world (the Intergovernmental where does it go next? The external agenda venture between the Research Councils, Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment of climate change policy and science is Government and Agencies. I would not have Programme 1 International Climate Policy Report), produced the background briefings fast-moving and so we have been taking been able to take on this role without my Professor Leader Professor Diana Liverman, University of Oxford Diana to the UN Human Development Report, stock of the past two years of research. experiences in the Tyndall Centre. I wish the Deputy Dr Alex Haxeltine, University of East Anglia Liverman published research for the OECD on the We of course are hoping for new funding Tyndall Centre an even brighter future and Deputy Dr Mark New, University of Oxford world’s vulnerable port cities, convened under forthcoming Research Council that it continues to be a flagship academic www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme1 an international adaptation conference in initiatives and are realigning some of our organisation that is staffed by researchers London, and in their spare time, won a priorities in the light of what the new funding that assess their professionalism both by Programme 2 Constructing Energy Futures Silver Medal at the Chelsea Flower Show. opportunities might be. their impact on the world, as well as their Leader Professor Kevin Anderson, University of Manchester They also published 83 peer-reviewed learned publications. I hope that you enjoy Professor Deputy Dr Jim Watson, University of Sussex Kevin manuscripts in the scientific literature, 28 I personally have learned much from my reading this year’s magazine. Deputy Dr Sarah Mander, University of Manchester Anderson book chapters, 51 Working Papers and colleagues and my science has been greatly www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme2 other reports. And since 2006 they have influenced during my tenure first as Deputy raised £8.5m of funding. Director and then Director of Tyndall. In Programme 3 Adaptation the autumn, I too am standing-down as

Leader Professor Neil Adger, University of East Anglia I know that nearly everyone in climate Tyndall Director to take-up Directorship Professor Andrew Watkinson Deputy Dr Irene Lorenzoni, University of East Anglia change research says that they contributed of the UK programme of research called Director www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3 Dr Irene to the IPCC – but what differentiates the Lorenzoni Tyndall Centre from other organisations “researchers that assess their professionalism by is the extent to which it contributed to Programme 4 International Development their impact on the world as well as their learned the report. We had 3 co-ordinating lead Leader Professor Katrina Brown, University of East Anglia authors and 9 lead authors, contributing publications” Deputy Professor David Thomas, University of Oxford www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme4 © Tyndall Centre Professor Robert Programme 5 Sustainable Coasts Nicholls

Leader Professor Robert J Nicholls, University of Southampton Deputy Dr Mike Walkden, University of Newcastle www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme5

Programme 6 Cities

Leader Professor Jim Hall, University of Newcastle Dr Sarah Mander Deputy Dr Miles Tight, University of Leeds www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme6

Programme 7 Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)

Leader Dr Terry Barker, University of Cambridge Deputy Dr Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia Dr Rachel www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme7 Warren theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008 Assessing the effectiveness of global climate policy

Few policy decisions are At its core, CIAS is complex computer In addition, the different models though made in the isolation of a software that combines a series of combining together within CIAS can single scientific discipline and independent models that represent the operate separately on computers at their climate policy makers need information economy, the climate, and climate impacts. host institutions. about the consequences of different policy options based on sound multi-disciplinary Terry Barker at Cambridge University CIAS project leader Rachel Warren at the evidence. Working closely with the UK provided the model, called E3MG, which University of East Anglia has recently won Government’s lead department for tackling describes the world energy-economy to a prestigious 5 year NERC Advanced climate change - the UK Department for the end of this century and produces cost Fellowship to further develop her work. Environment and Rural Affairs - the Tyndall estimates for emission reductions and Through the Fellowship Rachel will use Centre has now completed development changes in greenhouse gas emissions. CIAS to further inform policy makers about of its Community Integrated Assessment The resulting changes in global climate the outcomes of different global policies System (CIAS) to evaluate climate policy are represented by a simple global for human and natural systems, including problems at the global scale. CIAS is unlike climate model called MAGICC that comes changes in extreme weather as well as other models in that it is not seeking a from the Climate Research Unit at the average climate. Rachel will also detail The Tyndall Centre single ideal path for global climate policy University of East Anglia. The impacts of the range of future climates and impacts but is instead a tool for evaluating the these different global climates on people that need to be considered for adaptation effectiveness over time of different options and natural systems under different policy; evaluate the interaction of climate Coastal Simulator to mitigate climate change. population scenarios are provided by a and landuse policy, with particular reference portfolio of models. including, freshwater to policies for biofuel cropping and CIAS calculates the benefits of each climate availability (Walker Institute at Reading deforestation; and assess how climate The threat of sea-level rise The Coastal Simulator uses a set of Early successes have allowed the effects © Sarah Gardiner policy and its subsequent avoided damages University); coastal flooding and sea level change impacts feed back to the world and climate change means models that span processes from global of different coastal management options on people and resources, for example rise (Southampton University and Potsdam economy. that coastal managers are to local scales including: sea-level rise, to be predicted for both erosion and flood in terms of reductions in the population Institute for Climatology); and impacts being increasingly asked to make long- tides, surges, waves, sediment transport, risks. The results indicated the economic exposed to water stress or coastal flooding, on biodiversity (Oxford and Canterbury i Further information term assessments of potential coastal coastal morphology, coastal flooding, risk, benefits of allowing coastal erosion in or in numbers of plants and animals at risk Universities). A further model downsizes [email protected] or the technical journal impacts and responses. Shoreline ecosystem change and socio-economic some locations because of the knock- of extinction. these widespread impacts to the 50x50km Warren, R. et al. (2008). Environmental management planning in the UK for change. Simulations are made under on reduction of flood risk for people and scale so that other impact models around Modelling and Software 23 pages 592-610 flood, erosion and spatial planning now a series of scenarios to deal with the habitats further along the coast. Such the world can plug-in the outputs of CIAS. takes a 100 year perspective and such uncertainties inherent in future coastal early results clearly illustrate the benefits © Md. main Uddin/Majority World/Still Pictures long-term management decisions need management and socio-economic change. of the large-scale Simulator-approach for a rigorous evidence-base. In response to Future climatic conditions are represented informing long-term management decisions The Community Integrated this challenge, the Tyndall Centre’s Coast probabilistically. A range of different by viewing the bigger picture. Assessment System calculates programme of research is developing modelling methods are being used to the world’s first Coastal Simulator that provide a comprehensive suite of different i Further information the benefits of climate policies enables an integrated and interdisciplinary types of information on possible futures for Tyndall Centre Working Paper 110 or and subsequent avoided assessment across a wide range of the coast. contact [email protected] or physical, ecological and social factors. [email protected] damages to people and The Simulator focuses on the North resources The Coastal Simulator is an ensemble Norfolk coast as an example case of an the world’s first of different models connected together economically important coastline that to allow integrated assessment of is vulnerable to erosion, sea-level and Coastal Simulator the coast under a range of scenarios, climate change. Around 1,400 properties allows integrated including climate change projections. The are within 100 metres of the cliff top and development of the Coastal Simulator 20,000 properties are within the coastal assessments of has involved interdisciplinary partners flood plain, illustrating many current coastal the coast under a from across all of the Tyndall institutions management issues. It has been developed led initially by the current Director Andrew alongside public and private sector range of scenarios Watkinson and now by Robert Nicholls at stakeholders since its beginning. It includes including climate Southampton University. software that allows stakeholders and researchers to interrogate the Simulators change library of models and their outputs.

3 theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008

Users can generate and explore a vast The Urban Integrated Researchers range of results that across 26 integrate London’s Assessment Facility institutions land use, climate worldwide have impacts and energy been analysing policies where Europe’s

produces maps of London’s possible current climate population and employment change. The change policies next step is selecting options for adapting to the impacts of climate change on this are heading pattern of population and employment, which produces maps to show areas at risk of flooding, heat risk and drought. Users then assess London’s policies for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by using Tyndall Manchester’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Protocol (GRIP). They are able to define existing as well as future mitigation strategies. Transport emissions are a © Tack/Still Pictures © Tack/Still challenge for every city, and the relationship between employment locations, population and access to transport are important determinants of land use policy. The Supporting European transport emissions analysis has been undertaken by Leeds and Loughborough Universities. climate policy © NASA

A final level of interaction means that users adam The ADAM project (Adaptation biofuels, and burning fossil fuels using unchecked emissions, leading to costs for can generate and explore this vast range and Mitigation Strategies) carbon capture and storage techniques. To the wider economy. of results that integrate London’s land has been assessing Europe’s limit to this level of greenhouse gases in the use, climate impacts and energy policies, strategies to adapt to climate atmosphere, annual per person emissions But how can policymakers know which © Mark Edwards/Still Pictures driven by national and global economic impacts and reduce its global share of must not exceed 2 tonnes of carbon policies work best to bring about this Tyndall’s Urban Integrated Assessment Facility A prototype of the world’s enables assessments of how London might and climate change. Much of the land use, greenhouse gas emissions. Researchers dioxide equivalent by 2050. Current EU shift to a low-emission EU? An ADAM change its economy, population, planning first tool for assessing the policies, mitigation and adaptation policies transport and employment-population across 26 institutions worldwide have levels are ten-and-a-half tonnes per person. examination of 262 policies reveals that future of a city under a information is visualised down to the scale been analysing where Europe’s current it is the policies that deliver co-benefits changing climate has been demonstrated of 100m, using a combination of plug-in climate change policies are heading. The The likelihood of limiting the atmosphere which become legislation. For example by the Tyndall Centre’s Cities Programme, many more permutations” says Jim Hall. models developed at University College consortium is led by Professor Mike Hulme at 450 parts-per-million carbon dioxide in addition to lowering emissions, co- led by Professor Jim Hall at the University The Urban Assessment Facility covers the London and Newcastle University. at the University of East Anglia, Founding equivalent is clearly challenging. ADAM benefit policies help secure future energy of Newcastle. Tyndall’s Urban Integrated Greater London Authority area and the Director of the Tyndall Centre. reveals though that the costs of achieving supply or stimulate new technologies. But Assessment Facility enables stakeholders Thames Gateway. The Urban Integrated Assessment an atmosphere with a greenhouse gas a prerequisite for knowing if a policy is and researchers to do their own integrated Facility has been developed alongside The big question for international climate concentration of 550 parts-per-million of working is its monitoring. The researchers assessment of how London might change Each assessment is begun by first selecting stakeholders at the Greater London policy is whether the world can really limit its carbon dioxide equivalent are moderate and are struck by how few policies are its economy, population, planning policies, current, low or high scenarios for London’s Authority, Transport for London, Thames global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial lie between 0.6 percent of GDP to minus evaluated for their emissions reductions, energy policies and adaptation policies economic growth, based on Cambridge Water and other policy bodies. levels. First model results suggest that 2.6 percent GDP by the end of this century. which is essential if the EU wants to assess under a changing climate. Econometrics’ well known MDM-E3 known technologies can limit the amount of Such costs of mitigation must be weighed its progress to achieving its ambitious regional economic model. Second, i Further information greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere against the costs of inaction and many climate targets. Assessments of cities are commonly story- scenarios of climate change are selected, Tyndall Centre Briefing Note 27 or to this level. There is a one-in-two chance European countries are already vulnerable based and linear narratives of change, including new climate change simulations [email protected] or of exceeding the 2 degrees target at a to climate related extreme events. Flood i Further information often dealing with only one sector. “The from the Climatic Research Unit at UEA. [email protected] carbon dioxide equivalent concentration in damage, for example, is already higher www.adamproject.eu or email Tyndall Urban Assessment Facility enables It is then possible to analyse how these the atmosphere of 450 parts-per-million. than 1% of GDP in most of the newest EU Dr Henry Neufeldt, the project manager, users sitting at a laptop to interrelate the influence land planning that determines The known technologies for achieving 450 Member States and is expected to rise [email protected] factors that they think important to London population and employment patterns. At parts-per-million include energy saving, considerably by the end of the century for under a changing climate, and also enables this stage, the Urban Assessment Facility nuclear energy, renewable energy and a business-as-usual situation of relatively

4 5 theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008 Climate Bill overshoots Finding out why people fly New funding secured Alice has interviewed frequent leisure flyers There are also contradictions as to what from the Joule Centre to better understand what is driving the constitutes a good global citizen – a emissions targets will enable the Tyndall growth of aviation. Flying is itself not a well-travelled and culturally educated flyer Centre at the University of Manchester to practice – people do not fly for the sake of or an environmentally compassionate The scientific logic of the target of 450 parts-per-million. Parts-per- The Briefing Note stimulated much ongoing make a comprehensive assessment of flying – rather it enables people to engage stay-at-home? There is some willingness UK’s groundbreaking Climate million are the measure of the amount of policy debate. Scotland is drafting its own aviation’s contribution to the economy of in other practices, and has raised the to make marginal adjustments to address Change Bill is that it is more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Or Climate Change Bill and is aiming for a the North West Region of England. The standard of these associated practices. the environmental impacts of flying such as likely to contribute to a world average put another way, the Bill correlates with an higher cut in its relatively small proportion of project is combining a range of insights For example, it is not uncommon for a compensation by tree planting, but some temperature 4°C warmer than to constrain 80% chance of exceeding the target of 2 global emissions. The UK’s newly established for the first interdisciplinary study of future bride-and-groom to celebrate their frequent flyers felt that environmentalists warming to the EU target of 2°C. This is the degrees centigrade and a 60% chance of Climate Change Committee is keeping the aviation’s role in regional strategies for engagement abroad with two separate were harbingers of doom. conclusion of Professor Kevin Anderson exceeding 3 degrees centigrade. targets of the UK Bill under review. economic development and protecting the parties. Such changing practices of and Dr Alice Bows at Tyndall Centre environment. A spin-off from the project is celebrations abroad, holidays and short- In addition to frequent-flyers, in-depth Manchester in their Briefing Note rapidly The analysis addresses the exclusion the first robust methodology for including breaks, and visiting family and friends, interviews and a workshop with aviation published in response to the world’s first the Bill correlates from the Bill of emissions from shipping aviation emissions into regional greenhouse ratchets-up the number of flights each industry representatives have covered climate change bill. with an 80% chance and aviation. Previous Tyndall Centre gas inventories. year. Changing people’s social practices is a series of topics on aviation emissions, work has highlighted the policy conflict exceptionally difficult for policy, particularly from economic drivers to constraints and This means in terms of atmospheric of exceeding a between growing the aviation industry and The project adds a regional dimension to through voluntary means. opportunities in airplane manufacture. Five pollution that the UK’s national contribution target of 2 degrees cutting climate change. Current work is Tyndall Manchester’s successful projects scenarios for future aviation emissions to cutting global warming amounts to an investigating the emissions of international that focused on aviation at the national and Easy online booking and check-in enable have also been developed, one specifically atmosphere containing at least 600 parts- Celsius and a 60% shipping and its importance to climate EU scale. By 2010, aviation emissions in quick purchasing and delivery of tickets by the stakeholders that sets out a vision per-million of carbon dioxide instead of the chance of exceeding change because of the rapidly increasing the UK are projected to be similar to those and the relatively low prices of flights enable for a growing industry with zero growth in imports and exports necessary for global from car travel; by 2020 it is likely to be the people to take more flights. Some leisure emissions. 3 degrees Celsius trade. sector with the second highest emissions; users – for example enthusiastic skiers and and by 2030 it is likely to dominate climbers – book several trips for the year i Further information i Further information emissions. “The knock-on effect to UK in one session of online booking. As one [email protected] or Tyndall Centre Briefing Note 17 or climate change policy is that to allow for the interviewee put it, “ticket costs are absurdly [email protected] [email protected] or growth in aviation emissions, other sectors low.” The regionalisation of airports is also [email protected] of the economy will have to reduce their key – people can fly with ease and speed emissions even further” says Alice Bows of from their nearest airport. Manchester University.

What constitutes a good global citizen – a well-travelled and culturally educated flyer or an environmentally compassionate © Matthew Rees stay-at-home?

6 theeffect 2008

Twenty three percent of China’s carbon emissions are from the manufacture Carbon exports that of goods exported to consumers - the equivalent of more than double the UK’s emissions or the whole of Japan’s. are made in China The conclusion is that counting carbon emissions only within national borders, as is currently the case under the UN’s Kyoto Protocol, hides who is actually responsible for the emissions made from exports.

“Passing-on your emissions to someone else is not cutting your emissions” says Jim Watson of the Tyndall Centre at Sussex University. “Not only are industrialised countries historically responsible for the majority of carbon emissions to date, but they have significant responsibility for driving the rapid growth in emissions from International development in Africa other countries” Jim Watson and colleague Tao Wang © Natasha Grist calculated the carbon emissions of China’s Climate change could exert Most people felt that climate change national policy-makers, development net exports in 2004, the most recent year some of its biggest impacts should be a fundamental consideration practitioners, funders, scientists and NGO of full data. They consider their results on the world’s poorest in development but it is included in only a representatives to discuss the current conservative because in the two years people, particularly in Africa, where people very small proportion of international aid situation and development futures of between 2004 and 2006, China’s trade are heavily dependent on natural resources budgets. Too weak a case is being made climate change in Burkina Faso. Burkina surplus (the value of exports minus imports) such as rainfall at the right time of year for for the proofing of development policies Faso is expected to be hard hit by climate increased five-fold from $32bn to $177bn. growing crops and recharging rivers and against climate change, and one priority change, and currently is facing difficulties China is now believed to be the world’s lakes. A series of Tyndall Centre workshops is to make the information about climate in planning adaptation to climate change. largest emitter of carbon dioxide having on climate change in Africa is bridging the impacts and adaptation directly tied to Global climate change models are overtaken the United States. gap between policy and research, helping particular development issues. Although the particularly inconclusive about levels of scientists to focus on the needs of those science is far from certain about what will change in the region. Christian Aid co- who plan, fund and carry out international happen in Africa’s different regions, it is vital hosted the workshop. working with Chinese development. that current development activities don’t put decision-makers people more at risk. For example, it would The third workshop in this programme The first workshop was held at Oxford be wrong to encourage water dependent is due to be held in Cape Town, South on how China can

University Centre for the Environment in farming methods in an area where farming Africa, in February 2009, and will focus industrialise without © SXC/Gabriel Robledo March 2007. Three main themes were may be entirely unviable fifty years from on development futures for Africa in a The Energy Programme is additionally becoming locked The research is part of a Tyndall Centre assessing the carbon emissions of shipping and discussed: how to implement development now. number of key areas including food, water project that is working with Chinese who takes responsibility for these emissions. in the face of climate change; how to get and energy security. It is being organised long-term into fossil Shipping, like aviation, is not yet accounted decision-makers on how China can for in national greenhouse gas assessments development practitioners and academics “Climate change is just one of many by Andy Newsham at Oxford University’s fuels industrialise without becoming locked long- and worldwide is a massive growth sector for working together; and how to ensure variables that affects welfare in the Environmental Change Institute. carbon dioxide pollution term into an energy system and economy climate change is properly incorporated developing world. The challenge is to that is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels. into development programmes. Aid situate it as a key consideration” says Dave i Further information “The Chinese government’s efforts to Jim Watson said: “Our results strengthen Energy systems in the already industrialised organisations like Oxfam and the Red Cross Thomas of Oxford University, and Deputy [email protected] or reduce the expansion of exports are so far the argument that industrialised countries countries have significant and long-term were represented, as well as organisations Leader of the International Development [email protected] or not effective because of high international should move first to make real progress in lock-in to fossil fuels. working on development policy, like the programme. [email protected] demand for Chinese goods” said Tao cutting their carbon emissions – and also International Institute for Environment Wang. The majority of China’s trade surplus help nations like China and India shift to a The analysis provides further evidence and Development. There were officials The second workshop, held in Burkina http://african-environments.ouce.ox.ac.uk comes from goods such as textiles and more low carbon path of development.” for the international negotiations around from the World Bank, the United Nations Faso in April 2008, marked the first time the www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme4/ consumer electronics that are less carbon climate change. The United States in Development Programme, and the South Tyndall Centre has had a workshop in West burkina_faso.html intensive to manufacture. But recent i Further information particular argues against industrialised African and British Governments. Africa. The workshop brought together exports of carbon intensive materials such Briefing Note 23 or [email protected] countries like the US reducing their as rolled steel and aluminium are increasing or [email protected] emissions unless new economies like at more than 50% annually. The workshop held in Burkina Faso marked the first Tyndall Centre China, India and Brazil also do so. The US workshop in West Africa is the top destination for exports of Chinese made goods.

8 9 theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008

in adapting to the impacts of flood and drought. There is also local knowledge, for example on which wild plants can become food supplements during droughts. Barriers What if the climate to better adaptation are poverty and lack of information, skills and support networks. Some of these barriers can be overcome by supporting people’s attempts to diversify changes quickly? into new income earning activities. This is where short-term policy and help can There has been a lot of talk Without the thermohaline circulation in the The development of a new stable state in focus, but overarching poverty and lack of about sudden changes in North Atlantic, temperatures across Europe the climate system with different rainfall skills and knowledge are likely to be with us climate, like the thermohaline could fall by around 3°C in little more than patterns tends to have regional, rather than for decades. circulation shutting down, or a new El a decade. The impacts of this depend global effects. But one impact consistently Niño regime becoming the norm. But few largely on when it happens. Cold-weather emerges: World food prices are likely to Suraje Dessai of the Tyndall Centre and have researched the potential impacts disruption of infrastructure and increased go up. It may be because the fisheries of the University of East Anglia is assessing on human society. Professor Nigel Arnell winter mortality, for example, may not be the eastern Pacific are less productive, how organisations in the UK use scientific from Tyndall Southampton, and now at the so serious if the change is superimposed less flooding has reduced soil fertility in the information to influence their adaptation Walker Institute in Reading, made a first on a substantially warmer world. If the south Asian lowlands or more flooding has decisions and what barriers need to assessment of how abrupt climate change thermohaline circulation collapses in the reduced harvests in the same area. Rapid be overcome. His recommendation for could affect people. His research highlights next 10 years, though, its effects will be change is difficult to adjust to and when © Marisa Goulden organisations and businesses is not to global consequences of rapid change, more severe. The hydrological models used prices go up, more people go hungry. delay adaptation while waiting for more including impacts on world food markets. in this study suggest that thermohaline precise information about climate change collapse could reduce the availability of The aim of this research was to put the Overcoming barriers but to focus on climate-proofing to a wide Nigel’s report looks at three scenarios of water in south and east Asia as well as in possible impacts of abrupt climate change range of climate projections. abrupt climate change: shutdown of the Europe. This is unexpected, and needs to on the research agenda so that some thermohaline circulation; rapid temperate be researched in more detail. thought has been given to what it means for adapting to Professor Neil Adger at the University of increase due to positive feedbacks and a for people. East Anglia leads Tyndall’s adaptation complete change of climate regime, such The impacts of rapid temperature change, research. “Adapting to the impacts of as a shift to a permanent state of El Niño more than half a degree per decade, are i Further information climate change will be a painful process for Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or a permanent the same as the impacts of gradual climate Tyndall Working Paper 99 or climate change people around the world. The international change to the south Asian monsoon. It change, only worse. Significant changes in [email protected] community should with great urgency considers what might happen to water river flows, greatly increased water scarcity (now Director of the Walker Institute at The Adaptation Programme The many extra deaths during the 2003 be adapting to the climate change that supplies, energy, health, agriculture, in some areas, substantial increases in Reading University). hosted a major conference summer heat wave showed that old people is happening now and in the foreseeable biodiversity, settlements and infrastructure. heat-related mortality and falls in crop at the Royal Geographic are vulnerable to heat waves, and that future. We are learning the lessons for yield could be expected, and many natural Society in London to identify barriers to adaptation is needed. Johanna Wolf of the this relatively new area of policy.” The EU ecosystems would be threatened. coping with the impacts of climate change. Tyndall Centre and the University of East last July released its first policy paper on Adaptation 2008 drew together a worldwide Anglia presented research which shows adaptation to climate change. community of over 200 adaptation that elderly people in the UK whose health A first study of adaptation to abrupt climate change shows across researchers and decision-makers to assess can be affected by both cold snaps and i Further information all scenarios that world food prices increase, possibly because of the state of new knowledge about how to heat waves do not see themselves as Tyndall Centre Briefing Note 20. The failing fisheries or flooding reducing soil fertility and harvests adapt. vulnerable. Information campaigns and conference Adaptation 2008: Living with © Joerg Boethling/Still Pictures social networks currently do little to counter Climate Change is audio podcast at the self-perceptions of old people and so www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3/ Ugandan fisherman do not help them cope. The conclusion adaptation2008/index_outputs.html and Tanzanian for health policy is that awareness raising needs to be targeted to both elderly and farmers are through their support networks. necessity already Marisa Goulden of the Tyndall Centre and experienced in the University of East Anglia with colleagues adapting to flood Lars Otto Næss and Katharine Vincent (now at the University of the Witwatersrand, and drought South Africa) found that in a study spanning fisherman from Ugandan Lakes and farmers in Tanzania and South Africa – people are through necessity already experienced

10 theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008 Coastal planning for people Change managing and biodiversity The BRANCH project has Modelling results indicate that areas for than currently practiced and be integrated coastal communities brought together planners, cliff habitats are likely to remain unchanged into other land use decisions, for example policy makers and researchers unless current planning priorities change. agricultural policies. Planning also needs from England, France and the Netherlands For inter-tidal areas in the south of England, to recognise that while land banking these to investigate the impact of climate change intense development and coastal protection areas can help maintain the diversity of on species and habitats and how spatial means that space is limited and, by the habitats, local conditions may not support planning could help biodiversity adapt to 2080s, the majority of the saltmarsh areas, existing networks of habitats at the species such change. Spatial panning is a broad term under most of the sea-level rise scenarios, level. Accepting these adaptations to encompassing all types and scales of land- will have disappeared. climate change will require a more flexible use planning that influences the distribution interpretation of biodiversity legislation and of people and their activities. BRANCH is Planners and conservationists are faced guidelines. the project name for ‘Biodiversity Requires with a choice about the relative importance Adaptation in Northwest Europe under a of habitats, all of which are designated i Further information CHanging climate’. as specially protected under EU and UK [email protected] legislation. For example, coastal grazing www.branchproject.org As Tyndall Centre partners in this bigger EU marsh and saline lagoons often only exist

funded project, Professor Robert Nicholls behind man-made coastal defences. In The development of new 3D visualisation and colleagues at Southampton University some areas of coastline the maintenance of techniques were effective for knowledge exchange with a diverse range of coastal stakeholders and Simon Jude at the University of East defences has been abandoned to increase Anglia selected six coastline case studies saltmarsh areas but this means that the on the south coast of England to investigate habitats behind the defences will be lost. If

the potential impact of sea-level rise on the defences are maintained, then saltmarsh © Sophie Nicholson-Cole coastal habitats. The sites represent a range will decline more rapidly as sea-level rise The national strategy for change”, says Sophie. “For the moment, of habitats, their morphology and geology, encroaches. coastal defence, called this leaves coastal communities in a state together with associated management Research with Making Space for Water, of limbo, desperately trying to ensure a issues. These included constraints imposed At the regional scale, suitable land exists for signals a shift toward allowing the coastline coastal communities sustainable future”. Planned adaptation by current and historic land use, land habitat (re)creation that could compensate to function more naturally and away from a initiatives which are properly financed, ownership, protected habitats and erosion. for local habitat loss. To be effective, is identifying barriers preference for engineered coastal defences. managed and inclusively developed are The coastal habitats studied were shingle suitable areas will need to be saved now This means that in some places there will for adaption to critical, she says. For this to happen, beach, sand dunes, saltmarshes, mudflats, and managed to allow for habitat creation now be a policy of no active intervention, coastal governance needs to become more grazing marshes, saline lagoons, reed beds, later in this century. Planning decisions must coastal erosion and otherwise known as coastal retreat. But, the adaptive in its thinking before local efforts and coastal cliffs. therefore consider much longer timescales local implications of retreat have not been sea-level rise can really take flight. © Sarah Gardiner matched by any policies or mechanisms for enabling its application at the local are challenging progress on adaptation The situation is not altogether bleak, level to be managed socially, economically to this changing coast. She categorises however. The North Norfolk District Council or environmentally. Consequentially, these challenges as: changing risk and have been making unprecedented efforts to many coastal communities, for example uncertainty; the sensitive economies design, enable and implement adaptation Happisburgh in North Norfolk, are facing and cultures of coastal towns; a shifting measures that are starting to offer some the prospect of losing homes and local policy context; mismatched expectations hope for coastal communities in the area. infrastructure to various extents over the and understandings; many stakeholders Moves are also being made regionally next 25 to 100 years in the absence of with different interests; complex and new to co-ordinate efforts, and nationally to The BRANCH project has brought together any compensation arrangements or other management arrangements; and a lack of develop a range of adaptation options for community support. cross-sectoral co-ordination and questions flooding and coastal management. planners, policy makers and researchers of what is socially just and fair. from England, France and the Netherlands Sophie Nicholson-Cole’s research at the i Further information Tyndall Centre at the University of East “My research demonstrates a real tension [email protected] or the technical to investigate how spatial planning could Anglia is working closely with coastal between national strategic frameworks journal O’Riordan, Nicholson-Cole, and help biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of stakeholders, particularly on the North and local flexibility for its delivery. Despite Milligan, (2008). Designing sustainable Norfolk coast, where coastal change is high pioneering efforts on the ground, the coastal futures, Twenty First Century climate change on the political agenda. She has revealed broader institutional context is constraining Society 3: 145-157 a number of underpinning factors that the local potential to adapt to coastal

16 13 theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008 Who is more effective, Learning lessons from London’s efficient and faster at leadership combating climate change?

The Tyndall Centre is Side-events by outsiders were originally recognize that their opportunities are heavily investigating the role intended to feed the latest scientific influenced by what is decided by the formal of organisations that evidence into the official negotiations but negotiations”. All countries have to agree are key to reducing greenhouse gas they have grown considerably and are any decision which means a 180-piece emissions but are outside of the formal now on a par with the official UN meeting: puzzle is in progress during the annual two- United Nations (UN) climate change At Bali there were 200 side-events and at week UN meetings. negotiations, the traditional realm of least 6000 people who work on climate climate policy research. What can science, policy and business. “The negotiations are seen by the outsiders these businesses, cities, regions, offset as less about climate science and companies and others achieve for Heather and colleagues surveyed the responses and more about diplomacy skills,

climate change policy? Heather Lovell of events and interviewed key players. “The vested interests and political power. Side- © Henny Osbahr Edinburgh University went to the 2007 outsiders are vocal about their ability events, in contrast, tend to be solutions- annual UN climate change negotiations to take quick and effective action in focused with vigorous debate about new in Bali to ask why thousands of people combating climate change in comparison ideas for mitigating climate change and the

organise and attend side-events and to the slowness of agreements in the UN latest science” said Heather. © Deschamps/Andia.fr/Still Pictures what they hope to achieve. process” says Heather. “But they also i Further information By positioning itself as a global innovator, London has made What can businesses, cities, regions, and Tyndall Centre Briefing Note 24 or political capital of its climate change endeavours [email protected] others outside of the UN process achieve Global cities like London are year reign of Mayor Ken Livingston and political capital of its climate change for climate change policy? central to the functioning Deputy Nicky Gavron, London positioned endeavours. It established the C20 network of the world economic itself to provide climate leadership at city, of climate change cities in 2005. C20 is © Heike Schroeder system with influence far beyond national national and international levels. “Climate now C40 and is a conduit of climate advice, boundaries. What role do such global change was core in the policy agenda of knowledge and finance. © Ashley Sampson cities – as entities that are not included the Greater London Authority which meant in country-by-country UN negotiations - that people working day-to-day on climate But only six London Authorities have have in influencing and achieving policy on change strategy had the critical ingredient climate change action plans. One climate change? Heike Schroeder at Oxford of high-level support” says Heike. This explanation for this lack of political University and Harriet Bulkeley at Durham support in turn led to ambitious targets for interest is party politics - London’s mainly University have examined London’s role in reductions in emissions and widespread Conservative Party suburban Councils both galvanising its own climate change acceptance of climate change as an are less willing to engage than inner-city action and if it influences international overarching policy issue. Labour Party authorities. With the Labour policy. leadership of Mayor Ken Livingstone voted London’s political leaders also galvanised out in May 2008, it is still unclear if similar They conclude that the drivers behind its business leaders who were already alert emphasis on climate change will be led by London’s step-change for climate to climate change and carbon trading. This Conservative Mayor Boris Johnson. change over the past eight years include is one example of where global cities can leadership and commitment; the courage interact with international climate policy: The International Policy programme has born from interim policy success such as With London as a centre of the new carbon also assessed the contribution of Los the congestion charge; a background of finance industry it has the potential to Angeles to climate leadership. Melbourne positive public opinion; lack of opposition shape international carbon trading while and Mexico City are also being investigated. from key interest groups; and the new the UN carbon trading framework will also economic opportunities in carbon trading shape the City. i Further information for city finance firms. contact [email protected] or International leadership was a further [email protected]. First of these drivers was leadership for element of success. By positioning itself committed partnerships. Under the eight as a global innovator, London has made

14 15 theeffect 2008

emissions each year. It also estimates that 5% of the world’s forest is lost each The decade. Why the FTSE fights Their paper published in the leading development studies journal World climate change Development exposes the difficulties in designing systems and institutions to constraints to market forest carbon, and the constraints Profit is of course the issue of business strategy or an obligation and challenges facing developing country main incentive behind big is unclear. Over 86% of all companies who governments if they are to effectively company’s carbon reduction report their climate action do so under participate in global carbon markets. These programmes but there is a combination corporate social responsibility. forest carbon constraints include the unwillingness of of other motivations for action writes some people or communities to engage in Chukwumerije Okereke in his review of FTSE 100 companies identify the most markets, the lack of skills and capacity to the FTSE 100’s climate change activities. significant barrier to action as the absence secure funding for implementing projects, FTSE100 companies are global players with of a clear and long-term policy framework. If trading and the misfit between community practice businesses that operate in many countries a framework existed the companies would and sophisticated national and international across the world and few nation-States have a strategy upon which to base their rules. have such influence. Chukwumerije is decisions, they say. British Airways is one based at Tyndall Centre Headquarters at the of the many businesses calling for a strong In order for market-based mechanisms to University of East Anglia. and long-term framework to stimulate deep be effective in protecting forest ecosystems, emissions cuts from the aviation industry in these constraints must be overcome. But All FTSE 100 companies that report on a globally competitive business. this is immensely expensive for developing climate change made a link between countries in terms of time, expertise and profit and carbon management and report Related to the absence of a framework are effort. Sophisticated rules and the large amounts of money saved. In 2005 Shell the uncertainties in how governments might scale of investments may mean that poorer reported $60 million of savings, Alliance respond, uncertainties about the market countries are excluded. The impact of these Boots between £1 million and £2 million place, and geo-political uncertainties such combined and significant constraints likely and Aviva ‘massive financial savings’. as the future role of India and China and explains why there is only one CDM forestry Other motivators include recognition that the oil rich countries in climate change project registered so far and a handful of climate change will bring fundamental agreements. With this uncertainty and The International Development programme without a long-term economic value for low has shown the challenges facing developing voluntary certified forest projects worldwide. shifts in the way that companies operate country governments if they are to and that it is better to be proactive than carbon technologies, it is difficult for Chief effectively participate in global markets for forest carbon Overcoming these constraints has clear oppose international and national climate Executives to justify to their investors the implications for further development agreements. Chief Executives also have an high upfront costs of engaging with climate of Kyoto mechanisms that are relying obligation to confer market advantage and change. Locking-away carbon by Using market mechanisms to prevent upon market trading of carbon, forest steer away from possible losses through storing it in tropical forests is deforestation in developing countries allows sequestration and other ecosystem climate change. “In the past few years we have a potentially important part industrialised nations or industry to offset services. In forthcoming international seen a curious move in corporate of managing levels of carbon dioxide in their emissions by funding projects climate change negotiations there will likely environmentalism from opposing a global the atmosphere. Moreover, using market- that reduce deforestation. Compensation be a greater emphasis around promoting All FTSE 100 climate agreement to a more proactive mechanisms to pay for the management of for avoiding deforestation could also forest carbon markets. stance including advocacy in some cases. forests to store carbon is enthusiastically companies that report However, a lot of work is still needed to promoted by the UN Framework Sophisticated rules and the large scale of on climate change investigate the link between aspiration and Convention on Climate Change, the World made a link between actual emissions reduction,” concludes Bank, large conservation organisations investments may mean that poorer countries Chukwumerije. and by private-company carbon traders. are excluded profit and carbon Research by Dr Esteve Corbera and management and FTSE 100 is important to UK and global Professor Kate Brown of the Tyndall Centre help to improve forest management, its i Further information emissions - one report shows that and the University of East Anglia compares governance, and boost the incomes of rural report amounts of [email protected] or the technical the group of leading companies was government-led initiatives for forest-carbon communities. The role played by tropical journal Corbera, E. and Brown, K. (2008), money saved responsible for 73% (480 million tonnes) projects, such as those proposed under forests in storing carbon and regulating Building institutions to trade of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions the Kyoto Protocol; to voluntary, retail- the global carbon cycle is well researched. ecosystem services: Marketing forest The typical perception that business between 2003 and 2004. based, carbon markets operated by private When forests are felled or burned, they carbon in Mexico. World Development strategy is incompatible with ethics and businesses. They examine the case-study release their carbon into the atmosphere. morality appears out of date. The majority i Further information of Mexico’s markets for forest carbon and Conversely, when forests are planted or For research by Manuel Estrada that of companies argue that the trust gained Tyndall Centre Working Paper 109 or find that there are severe constraints to the conserved, carbon is locked-away. The compares regulated and voluntary offset from customers in ‘doing the right thing’ [email protected] creation of environmentally-sound, effective, World Bank reports that deforestation schemes, please see Tyndall Centre is outweighed by the cost. Yet whether markets. accounts for 20% of carbon dioxide Working Paper 116 big businesses see climate change as an © Joerg Boethling/Still Pictures

16 17 theeffect 2008 © Asher Minns theeffect 2008 Getting a GRIP on Europe’s Used cooking oil is the most metropolitan emissions sustainable biodiesel

Cities across Europe are Called GRIP (Greenhouse Gas Inventory is quick to deploy, adaptable to different employing a new service Protocol), the service was developed data, transparent, replicable, and is clearly that quantifies and projects by Sebastian Carney for his PhD at communicated”. GRIP results are also greenhouse gas emissions across a Manchester University. It was first built for consistent and comparable to national region’s industries and economic sectors. the North West of England and was part- inventories, between different regions and Four regions: Stockholm County, Veneto, funded by the Environment Agency and between different years. The methodology Paul Upham and Patricia If collection of used cooking oil was Manchester and Kings College London Bologna Province, and Glasgow and the the Tyndall Centre – with supplementary is in line with international standards laid- Thornley at the Tyndall Centre 100% efficient then it could provide the runs from 2007 to 2011 and will shed Clyde Valley have already used the system funds provided by the researcher. GRIP down by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel and Manchester University, UK’s biodiesel needs under the existing further light on the impacts of particular and a further 21 are next in line, including exemplifies the Tyndall Centre’s approach of on Climate Change. are assessing the sustainability of the renewable fuels obligation. Such efficiency feedstocks and on the details of alternative ten capital cities: Madrid, Paris, Stockholm, working alongside stakeholders to produce source materials that supply the UK with is unlikely ever to be achieved but it does scenarios for supplying the UK with 0Helsinki, Brussels, Athens, London, Oslo, agenda-setting research that is truly useful. The European Union’s Energy Policy biodiesel. Using methods defined by the demonstrate what can be achieved with biofuels. Moscow, and Ljubljana. The system is acknowledges the need for greenhouse UK government’s Renewable Fuels Agency, waste feedstock before resorting to virgin designed to make it straightforward for Many commercial organisations produce gas reductions of 60-80% by 2050. they conclude that only used cooking oil crops. “Incentives for oil recycling could be i Further information decision makers to assess their region’s many different greenhouse gas inventories. Cities have the central role in achieving has guaranteed sustainability benefits. provided by an extensive collection network [email protected] or emissions and use their expertise to “GRIP embraces all these varied Europe’s target. Its 100-plus metropolitan Other raw materials for making biodiesel, for collecting used oil from homes and [email protected] produce tailor-made scenarios for reducing approaches and has an open methodology areas house over 60% of Europe’s called feedstocks, have a CO2 payback businesses, though the emissions arising emissions. that its users trust” says Sebastian. “GRIP population of 490 million people and are period of 25-5,000 years, depending on from such a system would themselves need whether the crop is grown on existing to be assessed,” says Paul. If collection of used GRIP is designed to make it straightforward for decision makers to cropland, converted forest or converted cooking oil was 100% grassland. Payback is the length of time There is currently an obligation on transport assess their region’s emissions and produce tailor-made scenarios that a crop would need to be grown on an fuel suppliers to ensure that 5% of UK fuel efficient then it could for reducing emissions area of land to recoup the greenhouse gas by 2010 is from renewable sources, and provide the UK’s emissions caused by clearing that area of it is likely that a significant proportion will © istockphoto the main source of Europe’s greenhouse land to grow the crop. be imported. The work by Tyndall Centre biodiesel needs gas emissions. “Climate change requires trans-national cooperation and therefore a common language. My hope is that GRIP will become the standard tool for European Small is not always beautiful for biomass power Cities and Regions wanting to work together to assess, compare and reduce Small-scale, community- using the most efficient technology in development of small-scale facilities in the their greenhouse gas emissions” said based biopower plants bioelectricity plants does not necessarily UK, or local protest has stalled or halted Sebastian. “The use of GRIP is the way to produce higher levels of result in the lowest carbon emissions. development. inform choices that have to be made” wrote emissions per unit of electrical output than Moreover, Patricia points out that the Roger Read, Secretary General of the large facilities, says research from the bioelectricity technologies have differing The research – as part of the SUPERGEN network of European Metropolitan Regions Tyndall Centre at Manchester University. implications for local air quality: “Carbon Biomass and Bioenergy Consortium funded and Areas. Patricia Thornley and Paul Upham show savings are pretty constant across all by the Engineering and Physical Science while small facilities do have their plus sizes and types of plants but the overall Research Council – assesses the impact To keep-up with the user demand for GRIP, points – for example, transport impacts emissions vary a lot.” of 25 complete bioelectricity systems Sebastian Carney has founded a private are lower and local communities tend from crop to light switch. The work was in company Carbon Captured Ltd. to support them – their environmental Four key airborne pollutants – carbon conjunction with The University of Ulster performance is usually inferior to that of monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulates and and Aston University. i Further information larger plants. volatile organic compounds (VOCs) – were [email protected] or tracked across every step in the bioenergy i Further information www.grip.org.uk “There is a need to look not only at system, from field to power plant. [email protected] or emissions, but at carbon savings, costs [email protected] or and jobs all side by side – and that is what The market for bioenergy systems is the technical journal Thornley, P, (2008). we have done in this study,” said Patricia. currently without guidelines on preferred Environmental emissions from biomass They also found that, while all biopower types or size, meaning that deployment based power generation systems, generating systems show substantial is on a case-by-case basis. Local Environmental Research Letters 3 Glasgow and Clyde Valley is a metropolitan region reductions in greenhouse gas emissions circumstances, including rural social that has already used GRIP and 21 other regions across Europe are next in line compared to conventional electricity, initiatives, have in many cases driven the

18 19 theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008

conditions, and the associated garden plants that were on display. Other Climate and society at information explained changes of particular Motivating students to switch off interest to the gardener about longer the Chelsea Flower Show growing seasons; extremes in rainfall; Neil Jennings is a recently completed usage by the greatest amount from a Sixteen Universities have signed up to host increases in pests and fewer frosts. Tyndall PhD researcher at the University of baseline level. Over the next few months I the initiative for the forthcoming academic East Anglia who in his ‘spare’ time begun approached sponsors to provide prizes for year and a further nine are already on At the front of the garden was a hedge a hugely successful initiative to encourage the initiative and Ben & Jerry’s, Powergen, the waiting list for the following year. planted with Box species where visitors students to save electricity. With other Odeon, The Independent and First came on I’m looking forward to donning my lycra posted their own observations, hand- Universities wanting to join-in the fun, board. Key to the success of the initiative ‘Eco-Power Ranger’ outfit again to spread written on plant labels, of how the climate is getting students to switch off has become were individuals called Eco-Power Rangers messages about climate change and the changing their gardening. By the end of the his full-time job. – students living in halls who pledge to importance of personal action to a new week the ‘ideas-box-hedge’ was decorated use their energy carefully and encourage batch of students this year. Together with with comments on climate change and “At the start of my PhD, if you had told me their friends to do so as well. The scheme the experience and inspiration gained from gardening from Australia, the US, Canada that I would ever visit the Arctic I would proved a huge success as electricity usage being at the Tyndall Centre, I’m looking and the UK. have handed you a straight jacket. And yet decreased by 10% over the academic forward to encouraging even more ‘friendly’ in April 2007 I was privileged enough to year 2006/07 and saved around 90 tonnes competition, all in the name of reducing We are grateful to SureStep for donating a embark on the trip of a lifetime to the Arctic of carbon dioxide from going into the carbon emissions.” hard-wearing but porous path made from Circle as an Ambassador for the Ben & atmosphere. recycled china-clay waste. The decorative Jerry’s Climate Change College. Here’s how i Further information path was a huge talking point with visitors. it all came about. With the backing and help of the Ben and [email protected] or People seem aware of changing rainfall Jerry’s College I took the Student Switch Off www.studentswitchoff.org patterns and the need for soak-away As a Tyndall PhD student, climate to seven Universities in 2007/08, reducing surfaces, instead of concrete and asphalt change was rarely off my mind – which energy usage by an average of 8.7% and drives. was probably just as well! I recalled my saving the Universities a cumulative total of undergraduate days when students in over 500 tonnes of carbon dioxide and over Johanna said: “People cherish their halls of residence paid a set fee for their £100,000 in the process. I’ve now finished gardens as much as their homes and accommodation and electricity bills and my PhD and am running the Student Switch we were showing what climate change remembered just how much energy got Off as my full-time job. might mean for gardeners by 2050, and wasted. It seemed to me that to address why.” The Principal Funders were the this problem we needed to find a way of Natural Environment Research Council, the tapping into existing motivational prompts. © Saffron O’Neill Economic and Social Research Council and The two characteristics I picked out as Johanna Forster and Saffron O’Neill from the Tyndall Centre. being most important for students were the Climatic Research Unit and the Tyndall the pride associated with their Hall of Over 140,000 people Centre at the University of East Anglia Visitors, including Environment Minister Phil Residence and freebies! And so the Student were delighted to win a silver medal at this Woolas, newscaster Sir Trevor McDonald Switch Off was born, an energy saving attended this year’s year’s Royal Chelsea Flower Show for their and NERC Chief Executive Prof Alan competition between Halls of Residence to Royal Chelsea 2050 Garden. The 2050 climate change Thorpe, had the opportunity to discuss the see which Hall could reduce their energy garden was a popular hit with thousands of issue of climate change with Tyndall and Flower Show where Chelsea visitors and designed with science CRU researchers who staffed the garden Saffron O’Neill and communication in mind; it was the only for the whole week. Sky News broadcast interactive exhibit in the show. a day-long series of interviews from the Johanna Forster garden. The 2050 Garden reflected upon the

were delighted to © Neil Jennings win a silver medal traditional English garden of the 1950s The garden was developed in response to before looking to gardens of 2050 under an invitation from the Royal Horticultural for their climate a changed climate. The 2050 borders Society to participate alongside several change garden illustrated two possible future climates that other UK research and teaching UK gardeners may be working: one under establishments in this year’s education a ‘low emissions future’ and the other a theme of climate change. “The 2050 ‘high emissions future’. In addition to the Garden was a tremendously fun experience, plantings, the back walls were clothed with but with a very serious message: climate a stylised landscape behind each border change is real and we must all dig deep to to give a visual impression of the 1950s mitigate its dangerous effects” said Saffron. past, a low emissions future and a high Neil Jennings and his Eco-Power Rangers emissions future. Populating the borders i Further information were information boards explaining the For the garden design: are enthusing students and campuses across climate scenarios, the likely environmental www.tyndall.ac.uk/2050garden the UK to save energy and emissions

20 For more information contact: Mr Asher Minns, Tyndall Centre HQ, Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Phone: +44 (0)1603 593900 Fax: +44 (0)1603 593901 Email: [email protected]

Newcastle

Leeds

Manchester

UEA (HQ)

Cambridge

Oxford

Sussex Southampton

www.tyndall.ac.uk

International Energy Adaptation International Coasts Cities Integrated Policy Development Modelling

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research is core-funded by the UK Research Councils NERC, EPSRC, and ESRC.