2008 theeffectHighlighting research and communication at the UK’s Tyndall Centre Flower Show medal for climate change garden Barriers to Forest carbon Metropolitan Coastal Finding out why adaptation trading emissions Simulator people fly more theeffect 2008 Directors Measuring impact Tyndall Centre staff gathered last summer in authors and review editors. An impressive London for a party to celebrate the seven- contribution. year leadership of Professor Mike Hulme, Tyndall’s Founding Director at the University My Tyndall Centre colleagues are of East Anglia. It was at this time that I remarkably productive. In fact, the UK took over as Director, while Robert Watson Research Councils’ point this out in their Director: Professor Strategic Development: External Science Engineering: Professor Social Science: Distinguished Science Andrew Watkinson, Professor Robert Co-ordination: Jim Hall, University of Professor Katrina Adviser: Professor joined Tyndall as its Director of Strategy, in own assessment of the economic impact University of East Watson, University of Professor John Newcastle-upon-Tyne Brown, University of John Schellnhuber, addition to being the Chief Scientific Advisor of Tyndall; “Tyndall received 5% of NERC’s Anglia East Anglia Shepherd, University of East Anglia University of Potsdam Southampton to the UK Department of the Environment budget for Research and Collaborative and Rural Affairs (Defra). Centres but was responsible for 17% of its total mentions in Parliament, while scientific In the year-and-a-half that I have been publications are on a par with other Director, my Tyndall Centre colleagues research for its level of funding” Professor Andrew Watkinson Tyndall Research Programmes have participated in the UN process for collating climate change knowledge from So, that is where Tyndall has been but Living with Environmental Change, a joint around the world (the Intergovernmental where does it go next? The external agenda venture between the Research Councils, Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment of climate change policy and science is Government and Agencies. I would not have Programme 1 International Climate Policy Report), produced the background briefings fast-moving and so we have been taking been able to take on this role without my Professor Leader Professor Diana Liverman, University of Oxford Diana to the UN Human Development Report, stock of the past two years of research. experiences in the Tyndall Centre. I wish the Deputy Dr Alex Haxeltine, University of East Anglia Liverman published research for the OECD on the We of course are hoping for new funding Tyndall Centre an even brighter future and Deputy Dr Mark New, University of Oxford world’s vulnerable port cities, convened under forthcoming Research Council that it continues to be a flagship academic www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme1 an international adaptation conference in initiatives and are realigning some of our organisation that is staffed by researchers London, and in their spare time, won a priorities in the light of what the new funding that assess their professionalism both by Programme 2 Constructing Energy Futures Silver Medal at the Chelsea Flower Show. opportunities might be. their impact on the world, as well as their Leader Professor Kevin Anderson, University of Manchester They also published 83 peer-reviewed learned publications. I hope that you enjoy Professor Deputy Dr Jim Watson, University of Sussex Kevin manuscripts in the scientific literature, 28 I personally have learned much from my reading this year’s magazine. Deputy Dr Sarah Mander, University of Manchester Anderson book chapters, 51 Working Papers and colleagues and my science has been greatly www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme2 other reports. And since 2006 they have influenced during my tenure first as Deputy raised £8.5m of funding. Director and then Director of Tyndall. In Programme 3 Adaptation the autumn, I too am standing-down as Leader Professor Neil Adger, University of East Anglia I know that nearly everyone in climate Tyndall Director to take-up Directorship Professor Andrew Watkinson Deputy Dr Irene Lorenzoni, University of East Anglia change research says that they contributed of the UK programme of research called Director www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3 Dr Irene to the IPCC – but what differentiates the Lorenzoni Tyndall Centre from other organisations “researchers that assess their professionalism by is the extent to which it contributed to Programme 4 International Development their impact on the world as well as their learned the report. We had 3 co-ordinating lead Leader Professor Katrina Brown, University of East Anglia authors and 9 lead authors, contributing publications” Deputy Professor David Thomas, University of Oxford www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme4 © Tyndall Centre Professor Robert Programme 5 Sustainable Coasts Nicholls Leader Professor Robert J Nicholls, University of Southampton Deputy Dr Mike Walkden, University of Newcastle www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme5 Programme 6 Cities Leader Professor Jim Hall, University of Newcastle Dr Sarah Mander Deputy Dr Miles Tight, University of Leeds www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme6 Programme 7 Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) Leader Dr Terry Barker, University of Cambridge Deputy Dr Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia Dr Rachel www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme7 Warren theeffect 2008 theeffect 2008 Assessing the effectiveness of global climate policy Few policy decisions are At its core, CIAS is complex computer In addition, the different models though made in the isolation of a software that combines a series of combining together within CIAS can single scientific discipline and independent models that represent the operate separately on computers at their climate policy makers need information economy, the climate, and climate impacts. host institutions. about the consequences of different policy options based on sound multi-disciplinary Terry Barker at Cambridge University CIAS project leader Rachel Warren at the evidence. Working closely with the UK provided the model, called E3MG, which University of East Anglia has recently won Government’s lead department for tackling describes the world energy-economy to a prestigious 5 year NERC Advanced climate change - the UK Department for the end of this century and produces cost Fellowship to further develop her work. Environment and Rural Affairs - the Tyndall estimates for emission reductions and Through the Fellowship Rachel will use Centre has now completed development changes in greenhouse gas emissions. CIAS to further inform policy makers about of its Community Integrated Assessment The resulting changes in global climate the outcomes of different global policies System (CIAS) to evaluate climate policy are represented by a simple global for human and natural systems, including problems at the global scale. CIAS is unlike climate model called MAGICC that comes changes in extreme weather as well as other models in that it is not seeking a from the Climate Research Unit at the average climate. Rachel will also detail The Tyndall Centre single ideal path for global climate policy University of East Anglia. The impacts of the range of future climates and impacts but is instead a tool for evaluating the these different global climates on people that need to be considered for adaptation effectiveness over time of different options and natural systems under different policy; evaluate the interaction of climate Coastal Simulator to mitigate climate change. population scenarios are provided by a and landuse policy, with particular reference portfolio of models. including, freshwater to policies for biofuel cropping and CIAS calculates the benefits of each climate availability (Walker Institute at Reading deforestation; and assess how climate The threat of sea-level rise The Coastal Simulator uses a set of Early successes have allowed the effects © Sarah Gardiner policy and its subsequent avoided damages University); coastal flooding and sea level change impacts feed back to the world and climate change means models that span processes from global of different coastal management options on people and resources, for example rise (Southampton University and Potsdam economy. that coastal managers are to local scales including: sea-level rise, to be predicted for both erosion and flood in terms of reductions in the population Institute for Climatology); and impacts being increasingly asked to make long- tides, surges, waves, sediment transport, risks. The results indicated the economic exposed to water stress or coastal flooding, on biodiversity (Oxford and Canterbury i Further information term assessments of potential coastal coastal morphology, coastal flooding, risk, benefits of allowing coastal erosion in or in numbers of plants and animals at risk Universities). A further model downsizes [email protected] or the technical journal impacts and responses. Shoreline ecosystem change and socio-economic some locations because of the knock- of extinction. these widespread impacts to the 50x50km Warren, R. et al. (2008). Environmental management planning in the UK for change. Simulations are made under on reduction of flood risk for people and scale so that other impact models around Modelling and Software 23 pages 592-610 flood, erosion and spatial planning now a series of scenarios to deal with the habitats further along the coast. Such the world can plug-in the outputs of CIAS. takes a 100 year perspective