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Document of The World Bank Report No: ICR00002077 Public Disclosure Authorized IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IBRD-47920, IBRD-48160, TF-54833) ON TWO LOANS IN THE AMOUNT OF US$87 MILLION AND US$86.33 MILLION AND Public Disclosure Authorized A GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$40.22 MILLION TO THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA FOR Public Disclosure Authorized THE FIRST PHASE OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SCALE-UP PROGRAM and THE FOLLOW UP PROJECT TO THE FIRST PHASE OF THE CHINA RENEWABLE ENERGY SCALE-UP PROGRAM June 24, 2012 Public Disclosure Authorized China and Mongolia Sustainable Development Unit East Asia and Pacific Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective June 24, 2012) Currency Unit = RMB Yuan US$1.00 = 6.32 RMB Yuan FISCAL YEAR [January 1 – December 31] ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS APL Adaptable Program Loan GW Gigawatt (1,000 megawatts) ASTAE Asia Sustainable and GWh Gigawatt-hour Alternative Energy Program IBRD International Bank for CCS China Classification Society Reconstruction and CEPRI China Electric Power Research Development Institute ICR Implementation Completion CGC China General Certification and Result Report Center IEC International Electrotechnical CGF Competitive Grant Facility Commission CGF-PDP Competitive Grant Facility – IFFS Investors Scale-up Support Pilot Demonstration Project Facility CNAS China National Accreditation ISO International Organization for Service for Conformity Standardization Assessment kW Kilowatt CRED Center for Renewable Energy kWh Kilowatt-hour Development kWp Kilowatts-peak CREIA Chinese Renewable Energy MOF Ministry of Finance Industries Association MOST Ministry of Science and CRESP China Renewable Energy Technology Scale-up Program MW Megawatt (1,000 kilowatts) DANIDA Danish International MWh Megawatt-hour Development Agency NDRC National Development and DRC Development and Reform Reform Commission Commission NEA National Energy EIA Environmental impact Administration assessment NGO Nongovernmental organization EIRR Economic internal rate of NOx Nitrogen oxide return NPC National People’s Congress EMP Environmental management NPU Northwestern Polytechnical plan University ERI Energy Research Institute PDO Project Development FIRR Financial internal rate of return Objective FY Fiscal year PIP Project Implementation Plan FYP Five-Year Plan PMO Project Management Office GDP Gross domestic product PV Photovoltaic(s) GEF Global Environment Facility QAG Quality Assurance Group GEO Global Environmental QSA Quality of Supervision Objective Assessment GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für R&D Research and development Technische Zusammenarbeit RAP Resettlement Action Plan RE Renewable energy TTL Task Team Leader REL Renewable Energy Law TW Terawatt (1,000 GW) REDP Renewable Energy TWh Terawatt-hour Development Project (Loan UNDP United Nations Development 4488-CHA) Programme SAC Standardization Administration UNFCC United Nations Framework of China Convention on Climate SERC State Electricity Regulatory Change Commission VAT Value added tax SHP Small hydropower W Watt SIL Specific investment loan WTC Wind Testing Centre SOx Sulfur dioxide WTTT Wind Turbine Technology tce Ton of coal equivalent Transfer TF Trust Fund ZHMC Zhejiang Hydropower TI Technology improvement Management Center Vice President: Pamela Cox Country Director: Klaus Rohland Sector Managers: Mark Lundell and Vijay Jagannathan Project Team Leaders: Xiaodong Wang and Yanqin Song ICR Team Leader: Xiaodong Wang CHINA Renewable Energy Scale-up Program CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information B. Key Dates C. Ratings Summary D. Sector and Theme Codes E. Bank Staff F. Results Framework Analysis G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs H. Restructuring I. Disbursement Graph 1. PROJECT CONTEXT, DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES, AND DESIGN ................................................................................................................... 1 2. KEY FACTORS AFFECTING IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOMES ............................................. 5 3. ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOMES .............................................................................................................15 4. ASSESSMENT OF RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTCOME ................................................................................................21 5. ASSESSMENT OF BANK AND BORROWER PERFORMANCE ........................................................22 6. LESSONS LEARNED ..............................................................................................................................25 7. COMMENTS ON ISSUES RAISED BY BORROWER/IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES/PARTNERS ..........................................................................................................................27 ANNEX 1. PROJECT COSTS AND FINANCING .....................................................................................28 ANNEX 2. OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT ..................................................................................................30 ANNEX 3. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ..........................................................................49 ANNEX 4. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/ SUPERVISION PROCESSES ...................................................................................................................53 ANNEX 5. BENEFICIARY SURVEY RESULTS .......................................................................................56 ANNEX 6. STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP REPORT AND RESULTS ....................................................63 ANNEX 7. SUMMARY OF BORROWER’S ICR AND/OR COMMENTS ON DRAFT ICR ...................65 ANNEX 8. COMMENTS OF COFINANCIERS AND OTHER PARTNERS/STAKEHOLDERS ...........70 ANNEX 9. LIST OF SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ..................................................................................71 MAP ..............................................................................................................................................................73 ICR DATA SHEET A. Basic Information China Renewable Country: China Project Name: Energy Scale-up Program (CRESP) P067828, IBRD-47920, Project ID: L/C/TF Number(s): P067625 TF-54833 ICR Date: 06/24/2012 ICR Type: Core ICR SIL GOVERNMENT OF Lending Instrument: Borrower: CHINA Original Total US$87.00M, US$77.00M, Disbursed Amount: Commitment: US$40.57M US$40.57M Revised Loan Amount: US$77.00M Environmental Category: B Focal Area: C Implementing Agencies: Long Yuan Pingtan Wind Power Company Ltd. Jiangsu Guo Xin New Energy Development Company Ltd. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Follow-up to CRESP Country: China Project Name: Phase I Project ID: P096158 L/C/TF Number(s): IBRD-48160 ICR Date: 06/24/2012 ICR Type: Core ICR PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC Lending Instrument: SIL Borrower: OF CHINA Original Total US$86.33M Disbursed Amount: US$84.68M Commitment: Revised Amount: US$84.68M Environmental Category: B Implementing Agencies: Inner Mongolia North Long Yuan Wind Power Company Zhejiang Small Hydropower Development and Management Center B. Key Dates Renewable Energy Scale-up Program (CRESP)—P067828 Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 08/07/2000 Effectiveness: 11/30/2005 11/30/2005 i Appraisal: 12/01/2004 Restructuring(s): Approval: 06/16/2005 Midterm Review: 03/09/2009 05/15/2009 Closing: 09/30/2010 09/30/2010 China—Renewable Energy Scale-up Program (CRESP)—P067625 Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 08/07/2000 Effectiveness: 11/30/2005 11/30/2005 08/28/2007 Appraisal: 12/01/2004 Restructuring(s): 09/24/2010 09/27/2011 Approval: 06/16/2005 Midterm Review: 03/09/2009 05/15/2009 Closing: 09/30/2010 12/31/2011 Follow-up to CRESP Phase I—P096158 Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 09/07/2005 Effectiveness: 06/16/2006 06/16/2006 Appraisal: 09/07/2005 Restructuring(s): Approval: 02/07/2006 Midterm Review: 05/04/2009 Closing: 09/30/2010 09/30/2011 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes Highly satisfactory GEO Outcomes Highly satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome Low Risk to GEO Outcome Low Bank Performance Satisfactory Borrower Performance Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry Highly Satisfactory Government: Highly Satisfactory Implementing Quality of Supervision: Satisfactory Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Satisfactory Satisfactory Performance Performance ii C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Renewable Energy Scale-up Program (CRESP)—P067828 and P067625 Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating: Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No Satisfactory at any time (Yes/No): (QEA) Quality of Problem Project at any No Supervision Satisfactory time (Yes/No): Assessment (QSA) GEO rating before Highly satisfactory Closing/Inactive status DO rating before Satisfactory Closing/Inactive status China—Follow-up to China Renewable Energy Scale-up Program (CRESP) Phase I— P096158 Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating: Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No None at any time (Yes/No): (QEA) Quality of Problem Project at any No Supervision None time (Yes/No): Assessment (QSA) DO rating before Moderately Closing/Inactive Status Satisfactory D. Sector and Theme Codes Renewable Energy Scale-up Program (CRESP)—P067828
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    sustainability Review Wind Generation Forecasting Methods and Proliferation of Artificial Neural Network: A Review of Five Years Research Trend Muhammad Shahzad Nazir 1,* , Fahad Alturise 2 , Sami Alshmrany 3, Hafiz. M. J Nazir 4, Muhammad Bilal 5 , Ahmad N. Abdalla 6, P. Sanjeevikumar 7 and Ziad M. Ali 8,9 1 Faculty of Automation, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an 223003, China 2 Computer Department, College of Science and Arts in Ar Rass, Qassim University, Ar Rass 51921, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] 3 Faculty of Computer and Information Systems, Islamic University of Madinah, Madinah 42351, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] 4 Institute of Advance Space Research Technology, School of Networking, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China; [email protected] 5 School of Life Science and Food Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an 223003, China; [email protected] 6 Faculty of Information and Communication Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an 223003, China; [email protected] 7 Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, 6700 Esbjerg, Denmark; [email protected] 8 College of Engineering at Wadi Addawaser, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Wadi Addawaser 11991, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] 9 Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Aswan University, Aswan 81542, Egypt * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected]; Tel.: +86-1322-271-7968 Received: 8 April 2020; Accepted: 23 April 2020; Published: 6 May 2020 Abstract: To sustain a clean environment by reducing fossil fuels-based energies and increasing the integration of renewable-based energy sources, i.e., wind and solar power, have become the national policy for many countries.