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Chukchi Sea Planning Area, OCS Lease Sale 193 ______________ OCS Report BOEM 2015-010 Supplement to the Oil-Spill Risk Analysis: Chukchi Sea Planning Area, OCS Lease Sale 193 Zhen Li Walter R. Johnson Constance Murphy (Editor) US Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Headquarters, Herndon, VA February, 2015 OCS Report BOEM 2015-010 Supplement to the Oil-Spill Risk Analysis: Chukchi Sea Planning Area, OCS Lease Sale 193 Zhen Li Walter R. Johnson Constance Murphy (Editor) U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Herndon, VA Division of Environmental Sciences February 2015 Chukchi Sea OSRA Report ii Report Availability This report is available on the Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management website (at http://www.boem.gov/Environmental-Stewardship/Environmental-Assessment/Oil- Spill-Modeling/Oil-Spill-Risk-Analysis-Reports.aspx ). About the Cover Study area in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas and boundary segments used in the oil-spill trajectory analysis. Chukchi Sea OSRA Report iii Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................ VII ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................................... XIII 1.0 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................17 2.0 FRAMEWORK OF THE ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................17 2.1 STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................................................ 18 2.2 SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSED ACTION AND ALTERNATIVES ................................................................................... 18 2.3 ESTIMATED VOLUME OF OIL RESOURCES ........................................................................................................... 18 2.4 ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES CONSIDERED IN THE ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 19 3.0 OIL-SPILL RISK ANALYSIS .........................................................................................................................20 3.1 PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE LARGE OIL SPILLS OCCURRING .............................................................................. 21 3.1.1 Oil-Spill Occurrence Rates ................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.2 Production Scenario for the Leased Area ............................................................................................ 21 3.1.3 Using Fault Tree Analysis to Estimate Large Spill Rates ...................................................................... 22 3.1.4 Poisson Distribution ............................................................................................................................ 23 3.1.5 Oil-Spill Occurrence Probability Estimates .......................................................................................... 24 3.2 THE OSRA MODEL ....................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2.1 Model-Simulated Ocean Currents, Ice and Winds as Inputs to OSRA ................................................. 25 3.2.2 Hypothetical Launch Points ................................................................................................................. 26 3.2.3 Hypothetical Spill Trajectories ............................................................................................................. 26 3.2.4 Contacts with Environmental Resources ............................................................................................. 28 3.2.5 Estimating Probability of Contacts ...................................................................................................... 28 3.2.6 OSRA Model Output ............................................................................................................................ 28 3.2.7 Factors Not Considered in the OSRA Model ........................................................................................ 29 3.3 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF CONTACT ........................................................................................................ 29 3.4 COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF CONTACT ............................................................................................................ 29 4.0 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................................................31 4.1 COMPARISONS BETWEEN SPILL LOCATION AND SEASON ....................................................................................... 31 4.2 COMPARISONS THROUGH TIME ....................................................................................................................... 31 4.2.1 Comparisons of the Conditional Probabilities of Contact .................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Comparisons of the Combined Probabilities of Contact ...................................................................... 33 5.0 REFERENCES ...........................................................................................................................................34 Appendix A. Oil-Spill Risk Analysis Figures ................................................................................................................ 36 Appendix B. Oil-Spill Risk Analysis Tables ................................................................................................................. 51 B.1 Environmental Resource Areas, Land Segments and Grouped Land Segments ............................................................... 52 B.2. OSRA Conditional and Combined Probability Tables ....................................................................................................... 60 B.2.1 Annual Conditional Probabilities for Environmental Resource Area ........................................................ 60 B.2.2 Annual Conditional Probabilities for Land Segments ............................................................................... 71 B.2.3 Annual Conditional Probabilities for Grouped Land Segments................................................................. 78 3.2.4 Annual Conditional Probabilities for Boundary Segments ........................................................................ 82 B.2.5 Summer Conditional Probabilities for Environmental Resource Areas ..................................................... 86 B.2.6 Summer Conditional Probabilities for Land Segments ............................................................................. 97 Chukchi Sea OSRA Report iv B.2.7 Summer Conditional Probabilities for Grouped Land Segments............................................................. 104 B.2.8 Summer Conditional Probabilities for Boundary Segments .................................................................... 108 B.2.9 Winter Conditional Probabilities for Environmental Resource Areas ..................................................... 111 B.2.10 Winter Conditional Probabilities for Land Segments ............................................................................ 120 B.2.11 Winter Combined Probabilities for Grouped Land Segments ............................................................... 127 B.2.12 Winter Conditional Probabilities for Boundary Segments .................................................................... 130 B.2.13 Combined Probabilities of Spills Greater Than or Equal to 1,000 Barrels Occurring and Contacting Specified Areas ................................................................................................................................................ 134 Chukchi Sea OSRA Report v List of Figures Figure Page A-1: Study Area and Boundary Segments Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis. ............ 37 A-2: Hypothetical Launch Areas and Hypothetical Pipelines Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis. ......................................................................................................................... 38 A-3: Environmental Resource Areas Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 1) ........... 39 A-4: Environmental Resource Areas Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 2). .......... 40 A-5: Environmental Resource Areas Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 3). .......... 41 A-6: Environmental Resource Areas Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 4). .......... 42 A-7: Environmental Resource Areas Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 5). .......... 43 A-8: Environmental Resource Areas Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 6). .......... 44 A-9: Land Segments Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 1). ................................... 45 A-10: Land Segments Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 2). ................................... 46 A-11: Land Segments Used in the Oil-Spill Trajectory Analysis (set 3). ..................................
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