Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras
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VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN WESTERN HONDURAS JULY 2014 This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the sole responsibility of Tetra Tech ARD and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. Government. Contributors to this report: John Parker (Team Leader), Kelly Miller (Deputy Chief of Party), Luis A. Caballero Bonilla, Ph.D. (Eco-Hydrology Specialist), Rosa M. Escolan (Livelihoods Specialist), Edas Muñoz (Protected Areas Specialist), Alfonso del Rio (Phenology Specialist), Roberto Banegas (Value Chains Specialist), Olman O. Rivera (Watershed Management Specialist), and Anton Seimon, Ph.D. (Climate Specialist). Cover Photo: Hillside maize production, Candelaria, Lempira. Photo by J. Parker, July 2012. This publication was produced for the United States Agency for International Development by Tetra Tech ARD, through a Task Order under the Prosperity, Livelihoods, and Conserving Ecosystems (PLACE) Indefinite Quantity Contract Core Task Order (USAID Contract No. AID-EPP-I-00-06-00008, Order Number AID-OAA-TO-11-00064). Tetra Tech ARD Contacts: Patricia Caffrey Chief of Party African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) Burlington, Vermont Tel.: 802.658.3890 [email protected] Anna Farmer Project Manager Burlington, Vermont Tel.: 802-658-3890 [email protected] VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN WESTERN HONDURAS AFRICAN AND LATIN AMERICAN RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (ARCC) JULY 2014 Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 10 1.1 PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES .............................................................................................................................. 10 1.1.1 USAID’s Climate Change and Development Strategy ........................................................................ 10 1.1.2 Research framework ................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.3 Assessment methodology .......................................................................................................................... 12 2.0 THE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT FINDINGS ................................................................ 16 2.1 EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................................................ 16 2.1.1 General characteristics of climate in Western Honduras ................................................................. 16 2.1.2 Temperature trends and predictions ..................................................................................................... 19 2.1.3 Precipitation trends and predictions ...................................................................................................... 23 2.1.4 Key findings of the climate analysis ......................................................................................................... 34 2.2 SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................................................. 35 2.2.1 Sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change .......................................................................................... 35 2.2.2 Eco-hydrological vulnerability of selected sub-watersheds ............................................................... 52 2.2.3 Protected Areas analysis ............................................................................................................................ 54 2.2.4 Key findings of the ecosystems analysis ................................................................................................. 57 2.2.5 Sensitivity of crops to climate change ..................................................................................................... 58 2.2.6 Key findings of the phenological analysis................................................................................................ 68 2.3 SENSITIVITY OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS .................................................................................................................. 68 2.3.1 Value chain analysis of the selected crops ............................................................................................. 68 2.3.2 Sensitivity of livelihoods to climate change ........................................................................................... 72 2.3.3 Key findings of livelihoods analysis .......................................................................................................... 79 2.3.4 Social-ecological vulnerability of selected sub-watersheds ................................................................ 80 2.4 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY .......................................................................................................................................... 81 2.4.1 Adaptive capacity of farmers..................................................................................................................... 81 Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras ii 2.5 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND THE PROTECTED AREA SYSTEM ............................................................. 88 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS .............................................. 89 3.1 ADAPTATION PATHWAYS ............................................................................................................................... 89 3.2 SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS BY SUB-WATERSHED............ 92 3.2.1 San Juan .......................................................................................................................................................... 92 3.2.2 Gualcarque .................................................................................................................................................... 92 3.2.3 Mejocote ........................................................................................................................................................ 93 3.2.4 Grande de Otoro ........................................................................................................................................ 93 3.2.5 Mocal Lempa ................................................................................................................................................. 93 3.2.6 El Venado Lempa ......................................................................................................................................... 93 3.2.7 Higuito ............................................................................................................................................................ 93 3.2.8 Palagua-Goascoran ...................................................................................................................................... 94 4.0 SOURCES ............................................................................................................................. 95 5.0 LIST OF ANNEXES ........................................................................................................... 100 Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras iii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ARCC African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change CODEMS Municipal Emergency Committees CODELES Local Emergency Committees COPECO Permanent Contingency Commission of Honduras DGRH Dirección General de Recursos Hídricos ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation ERA European Reanalysis FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FIC Fundación para la Investigación del Clima FIPAH Foundation for Participatory Farmer Research FGDs focus group discussions FtF Feed the Future GHCN Global Historical Climatology Network HDI Human Development Index ICF Institute of Forest Conservation ICT Instituto Tecnologico Comunitario ICT Information and communications technologies IEH Instituto de Estudios del Hambre IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IHCAFE Instituto Hondureño del Café IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JAPOE Council for Administration of Water and Sewage Disposal KIIs Key Informant Interviews MEI Multivariate ENSO Index MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Sectroradiometer MPI Multidimentional Poverty Index Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras iv NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NGO Nongovernmental organization PIF Programa de Investigación en Frijol PLCI Permanent Land Cover Index PY psyllid yellow disease of potato QSMAS Quesungual Slash-and-Mulch Agroforestry System RCPs Recommended Concentration Pathyways SES social-ecological systems TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission WEIA Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index UNDP United Nations Development Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture VA Vulnerability Assessment ZC Zebra chip disease Vulnerability and Resilience