SALWEEN RIVER Does Asia Have Enough Water to Develop? Does Asia Have Enough Water to Develop?

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NO WATER, NO GROWTH NO WATER, NO GROWTH SALWEEN RIVER Does Asia have enough water to develop? Does Asia have enough water to develop?

KEY COUNTRY EXPOSURE Salween River, also known as Nu River in China, cuts through rugged mountainous in the Tibetan Plateau and China Myanmar Thailand SALWEEN RIVER Yunnan Province in China, and then flows through Myanmar Surface Water 2% Surface Water 7% Surface Water 2% and Thailand before emptying into the Andaman Sea. Resources Resources Resources

Population 0.3% Population 9% Population 0.8% THE SALWEEN RIVER BASIN

Length 2,400 km GDP 0.2% GDP 6% GDP 0.4% Basin Area 0.27-0.36 million km2 Note: the share of surface water resources refers to the ratio of surface water produced internally by the river in the respective country and the country’s total renewable surface water. Annual flow 114-207 billion m3 RIVER FLOW & RUNOFF MIX Flow through China, Myanmar, Runoff mix in the upper Salween Thailand Annual flow estimation DEFINITIONS (FAO AQUASTAT): − River flow/runoffs: the amount Base flow Share of ice & snow 25-36% of runoff of river water that flows in a 22% melt in upper reach given time Average surface 140 billion m3 3 − Surface water produced 207bn m internally: long-term average Rainfall- Glacier water resources annual volume of surface water runoff melt generated by direct runoff from 42% 8% Basin population 9 million endogenous precipitation Basin GDP in 2015 US$23 billion 114 (surface runoff) and groundwater (constant 2010 price) contributions Snow melt − Total renewable surface water: 28% Transboundary Yes the sum of the internal renew- Souce: China Water Risk based on Lutz et al (2014) There is no trans- Source: China Water Risk based on able surface water resources calculation by CAS-IGSNRR using Based on several sources, the contribution of boundary agreement MPI-HM, PCRGLOBWB and WaterGAP and the total external renewable glacier melt and snow melt to the runoffs in the yet. hydrological models surface water resources Upper Salween could range from 25% to 36%. THE SALWEEN MATTERS FOR COUNTRIES, PEOPLE & THE ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST & FUTURE TREND Total surface water resources Total population Total 2015 GDP (constant 2010 price) Temperature Change (°C) Hydrological Changes (mm/year) 3 (RCP4.5) (RCP4.5) = 140 billion m = 9 million = US$23 billion Thailand China Thailand China Thailand China 2.0 Snowfall Rainfall Runoff 7% 37% 6% 43% 6% 75% 3.5 1.6 3.0 Myanmar 2.5 19% 1.2 2.0 1.5 3.06 0.8 1.0 1.36 0.5 0.73 0.4 0.34 0 0.85 1.57 -0.28 -0.47 -0.5 Myanmar Myanmar 0 56% 51% -1.0 1956-2005 2006-2055 1956-2005 2006-2055

Source: China Water Risk based on data from Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Rainfall, snowfall and runoff change are GDP mix Water Use Per Unit GDP (m3/USD) Water use mix expressed in equivalent water height. All data are calculated from five ensemble model (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, CCSM4, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR) in IPCC AR5.

ICE RESERVES & GLACIER MELT Services Agriculture Industry Municipal 10% 54% 9% 3% Glaciers in the Salween: Glacier area shrinkage: Number: 2,113

0.73 Ice reserves: 88 km3 44-53% >2x Salween’s = 595-852 km2 Three 3,786 and glaciers exist Tarim Indus

1.2x Yellow Gorges between 6,471 masl 2007-2050 Ganges Yangtze

Size of Hong Kong Mekong Dams (under RCP4.5) Salween

Glacier area: 1,352 km2 Irrawaddy

Industry Amu Danya Agriculture masl = metres above sea level 36% Brahmaputra 88% Water use per capita: 1,921m3/pax

For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected] © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected] Salween_river_AW2_20180906.pdf 2 6/9/2018 1:21 AM

CMY

Salween Legend HKH Glaciers River Basin Major Rivers Cities 300k-5mn 5-10mn 10-15mn

15-20mn

Over 20mn 0 100 200km

This map uses UN urban population data. However, if we add rural population and other temporary residents living within the municipal boundary of cities, the total population can be larger. © China Water Risk. Data Source: ICIMOD; Randolph Glacier Inventory; FAO AQUAmaps; Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences