Nuclear Issues 2011 Capstone Conference Tuesday, December 6, 2011 U.S

Project on Nuclear Issues 2011 Capstone Conference tuesday, december 6, 2011 u.s. strategic command Dear Capstone Conference Participants:

Key Contacts: Since 2003, the PONI conference series has provided a forum for rising experts in the field to advance the debate on nuclear issues by presenting Clark Murdock insights from their independent research and their professional experiences. Senior Adviser and PONI Director Today’s event, which marks the culmination of the 2011 PONI conference Office: 202.775.3182 series, features a selection of some of the best presentations given at several Fax: 202.775.3199 preceding conferences this year. [email protected] The 2011 conference series included events hosted by the Nevada National Mark Jansson Security Site, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Lawrence Deputy Director, Livermore National Laboratory. The series also encompassed the inaugural Project on Nuclear Issues event of the UK Project on Nuclear Issues, which was officially launched by Office: 202.775.3286 the Royal United Services Institute this year. These conferences drew over Fax: 202.775.3199 500 participants in total and each featured rich discussion on a range of [email protected] important issues affecting nuclear weapons strategy, policy, and science. On several occasions, conference participants were given the opportunity to tour John K. Warden the host site’s facilities to get a first-hand look at some of the scientific and Program Coordinator, technological work being done to sustain the nuclear stockpile and advance Project on Nuclear Issues security in other areas. Office: 202.741.3863 Fax: 202.775.3199 It has indeed been a highly successful year for the PONI conference series [email protected] and we hope that you find the presentations and ensuing discussion at this year’s capstone event to be thought-provoking and enjoyable. As you engage Cover photos: (Main photo) Sandia Labs photo; (Top left) iStockphoto; in this discussion, please remember that all comments made today are off- (Bottom left) U.S. Department of Defense photo. the-record. This rule obtains today, as it does at all PONI events, in order to foster more candid exchanges among participants, so thank you in-advance for honoring it.

Finally, PONI would like to thank U.S. Strategic Command for hosting the capstone event again this year. The interactions that take place between PONI members and senior leaders from Strategic Command are invaluable, and we are therefore very grateful to have the opportunity to be here and to have all of you as guests.

Sincerely, The PONI Staff PONI 2011 Capstone Conference tuesday, december 6, 2011

agenda

7:00 CONFERENCE CHECK-IN AND BREAKFAST

7:50 CONFERENCE WELCOME Dr. Clark Murdock, Senior Adviser and PONI Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies

8:00 MAINTAINING NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES IN THE U.S. AND UK Mr. David Jarvis CBE, Director, UK PONI, Royal United Services Institute; Strategic Systems Analyst, Lockheed Martin

OVERVIEW OF WEAPONS ENTERPRISE TRANSFORMATION AND MATHEMATICAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS Dr. Carol Meyers, Mathematician, National Security Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

ENHANCED NUCLEAR DETONATION SAFETY Mr. Raymond Wolfgang, Member of Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories

THE UK-FRANCE NUCLEAR AGREEMENT IN CONTEXT Mr. Matt Harries, PhD Candidate, Department of War Studies, King’s College London

MANAGEMENT OF KEY TECHNOLOGIES IN THE UK NAVAL NUCLEAR PROPULSION PROGRAME Mr. Christopher Palmer, Assistant Chief Engineer, Astute Programme, Rolls Royce Submarines

9:20 BREAK

9:30 STRATEGIC STABILITY CHALLENGES IN ASIA Moderator: Mr. Gregory Weaver, Deputy Director of Plans and Policy, U.S. Strategic Command

THE THREAT THAT LEAVES SOMETHING TO CHANCE IN U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS Mr. Vincent Manzo, Research Analyst, Institute For National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

CRUISE MISSILES IN SOUTHERN ASIA: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA AND INDIA Mr. Kalyan Kemburi, Associate Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies ARE CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS A VIABLE OPTION FOR DAMAGE LIMITATION TRANSITION TO ZERO: A CHANGE LEADERSHIP PERSPECTIVE OPERATIONS AGAINST MEDIUM-SIZED NUCLEAR-ARMED ADVERSARIES? Mr. Paul Higson, Organizational Development Specialist, Atomic Weapons Establishment Mr. Tong Zhao, PhD Candidate, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech University 3:20 BREAK

BENEFITS OF ICBMS TO U.S. NUCLEAR POSTURE AND GLOBAL STABILITY 3:30 TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR SECURITY Mr. Jerry Maxwell, Systems Engineer, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems Moderator: Dr. James A. Tegnelia, Former Director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency 11:00 BREAK MULTI-ACTINIDE RESONANCE IONIZATION MASS SPECTROMETRY (RIMS) FOR NUCLEAR FORENSICS APPLICATIONS AND RAPID RESPONSE 11:10 NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL AND FORCE REDUCTIONS Dr. Brett Isselhardt, Post-doctoral Fellow, Chemical Sciences Division, Lawrence Livermore Moderator: Amb. Linton Brooks, Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International National Laboratory Studies; Former Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration CHARACTERIZATION OF URANIUM OXYFLUORIDE PARTICLES NEXT STEPS IN ARMS CONTROL: RESTORING CONSENSUS ON NUCLEAR FOR NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS POLICY Dr. Ruth Kips, Research Scientist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Dr. Tom Karako, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Kenyon College VERIFICATION CHALLENGES AT LOW NUMBERS QUALITATIVE CONSIDERATIONS FOR NUCLEAR FORCES FOR FUTURE Mr. Paul Booker, Mechanical Engineer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS Mr. Tom Devine, Policy Analyst, Science Applications International Corporation and 4:45 BREAK Ms. Rebecca Gibbons, PhD Candidate, International Relations, Georgetown University 4:55 BUILDING THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME TO ADDRESS CONTEXTUALIZING AND ENGAGING RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POLICY CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES Mr. Alejandro Sueldo, JD Candidate, University of California, Berkeley Moderator: Dr. Clark Murdock, Senior Adviser and PONI Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies THE DUMA-SENATE LOGJAM REVISITED: ACTIONS AND REACTIONS IN RUSSIAN TREATY RATIFICATION DEBATES IRAN’S NUCLEAR STRATEGY: UNDERSTANDING TEHRAN’S Ms. Anya Loukianova, PhD Candidate, Policy Studies, University of Maryland ACQUISITION PATHWAY Mr. Patrick Disney, MA Candidate, International Relations, Yale University 12:40 LUNCH AND AFTERNOON KEYNOTE Dr. John Hamre, President and CEO, Center for Strategic and International Studies STRENGTHENING THE IAEA: THE DOUBLE TRACK Ms. Sonia Drobysz, PhD candidate, Panthéon Sorbonne University; Junior Associate 2:00 EXPLORING THE HISTORY OF THE NPT AND NONPROLIFERATION REGIME Researcher, Center for International Security and Arms Control Studies (France) Moderator: Dr. James Wirtz, Dean, School of International Graduate Studies; Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School TRANSNATIONAL NETWORKS AND NONPROLIFERATION: STRENGTHENING THE MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR EXPORT CONTROL REGIME SUPERPOWER COLLUSION AND THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION Mr. Michael M. Lieberman, Associate, International Department, Steptoe & TREATY Johnson LLP; Fellow, Truman National Security Project Ms. Jane Vaynman, PhD Candidate, International Relations, Harvard University 6:15 END OF PRESENTATION PANELS MILITARY TRADEOFFS AS A CONSTRAINT ON NUCLEAR ACQUISITION Mr. Gene Gerzhoy, PhD Candidate, International Relations, University of Chicago 6:30 RECEPTION AT THE PATRIOT CLUB

THE QUESTION OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND THE 7:15 DINNER AND EVENING KEYNOTE ENFORCEMENT PARADOX General Robert Kehler, Commander, United States Strategic Command Mr. Jonathan Snider, PhD Candidate, Political Science, University of California, Davis 8:30 END OF CONFERENCE of the UK Trident II D5 system. He had previously created and led a specialist expert team in conducting the preliminary research into nuclear deterrence options - the findings of which SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES informed the government’s White Paper. He thereby became part of the initial programme for a potential successor SSBN. He also created and directed a Deterrence Customer Group in the MoD’s Equipment Capability area for the current and future deterrent. Prior to that he served at US CONFERENCE WELCOME Strategic Command in Omaha Nebraska as the UK and NATO targeting officer, was the assistant director for nuclear policy in the MoD, and spent time at sea in Polaris-, Chevaline- and Trident- equipped SSBNs. Dr. Clark Murdock, Senior Adviser and PONI Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies Dr. Carol Meyers, Mathematician, National Security Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore Clark Murdock is the senior adviser for the U.S .Defense and National Security Group at CSIS National Laboratory and the director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI). Joining CSIS in January 2001, Murdock Carol has worked as a mathematician at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since has completed studies on a wide range of defense and national security issues, including strategic receiving her PhD in operations research from MIT in 2006. Her expertise is in the areas planning, defense policy and governance, and U.S. nuclear weapons strategy and policy. He of integer and linear programming optimization, agent-based modeling, discrete event directed the four-phase study on Defense Department reform, “Beyond Goldwater-Nichols: USG simulation, and decision theory. She has been involved in nuclear enterprise modeling since and Defense Reform for a New Strategic Era,” which released reports in March 2004, July 2005, 2007, and as part of this work she participated in the Sandia Weapons Intern program in 2009. and July 2006 and released several reports in 2008. Murdock is currently leading the U.S.-UK- She is the principal architect of the Stockpile Transformation Optimization Requirements France trilateral track-2 nuclear dialogue and has recently completed studies on methodological Model (STORM), which has been used to evaluate potential courses of action for NNSA approaches to building force planning constructs and on nuclear posture implications of U.S. stockpile planning. In addition to working on stockpile matters, she uses supercomputers to extended deterrence and assurance. He is the principal author of Improving the Practice of National Security Strategy: A New Approach for the Post–Cold War World (CSIS, 2004) and The Department of Defense solve large-scale planning problems in the energy arena. and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st Century (CSIS, 2008). Murdock coauthored Revitalizing the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent (CSIS, 2002) and Nuclear Weapons in 21st Century U.S. National Security (AAAS, 2008). Mr. Raymond Wolfgang, Member of Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories Mr. Wolfgang has a B.S. in Electrical Engineering and an MS in Mechanical Engineering from In 2000, Murdock taught military strategy, the national security process, and military innovation Penn State University (1993). He later earned an MS in Electrical Engineering from Purdue at the National War College. From 1995 to 2000, he was deputy director of the Air Force’s (2002), specializing in multimedia security and digital watermarking. He subsequently joined the headquarters planning function. As deputy special assistant to the chief for long-range planning, Space and Naval Warfare (SPAWAR) Systems Center, where he acted as a systems engineer on he helped define a coherent strategic vision for the 2020 Air Force and institutionalize a new long- several software and Information Assurance projects. In 2006, he served in SPAWAR’s Program range planning process. As deputy director for strategic planning, he helped implement the new Management Office, where he managed programmatic risk for Program Managers with regards planning process and led the development of several new planning products. Before joining the to shipboard and shore-based installations. After a brief period supporting the Joint Tactical Air Force, he headed the Policy Planning Staff in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Radio System (JTRS) software compliance efforts, Raymond joined Sandia National Laboratories Policy. Murdock has served in many roles in the defense world, including as a senior policy adviser as a video engineer for waterfront security projects in late 2007. A Distinguished Toastmaster to House Armed Services Committee chairman Les Aspin, as an analyst and Africa issues manager (DTM) since 2010, Ray currently contributes as a systems engineer and surety lead for the W76-1 in the CIA, and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He also taught for 10 years at the State Systems Engineering group. University of New York at Buffalo. He is an honors graduate of Swarthmore College and holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Wisconsin at Madison. Mr. Mathew Harries, PhD Candidate, Department of War Studies, King’s College London Matthew Harries is a PhD candidate in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. His doctoral research on the role of Article VI in debates about the Non-Proliferation Treaty is MAINTAINING NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES IN THE U.S. AND UK funded by an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) project-linked studentship, and forms one strand of Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman’s ESRC Global Uncertainties fellowship, ‘Strategic Mr. David Jarvis CBE, Director, UK PONI, Royal United Services Institute; Scripts for the 21st Century.’ His other research interests include UK-US and UK-French strategic Strategic Systems Analyst, Lockheed Martin nuclear cooperation and the future role of arms control. Matthew previously worked as a Research Having retired from the Royal Navy in June 2009, following 36 years as a weapons engineer, David Assistant and Project Coordinator at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He is a Jarvis CBE CEng FIET joined Lockheed Martin UK Ampthill as a Strategic Systems Advisor. member of the 2011 PONI Nuclear Scholars Initiative, and an Associate of the Centre for Science His last post in the Service was as the Chief Strategic Systems Executive, being both the UK and Security Studies at King’s. Matthew read Modern History and Politics at Christ Church, Oxford, Project Officer for the Polaris Sales Agreement and responsible for the assurance of Continuous graduating in 2008 with first class honors. At-Sea Deterrence. Concurrently he held the post of Director of Strategic Weapons Systems in the DE&S, (now the Strategic Weapons Project Team), charged with the provision and support Mr. Christopher Palmer, Assistant Chief Engineer, Astute Program, Rolls Royce (UK) in International Affairs from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Chris Palmer joined Rolls-Royce Submarines in 1999 having completed a bachelor’s degree in Hopkins University and a BA in Political Science from Kenyon College. Prior to graduate school, Materials Engineering at Loughborough University and a master’s degree in Nuclear Reactor Vince worked as a legal assistant at Motley Rice LLC for two years. Technology. In 2002, Chris became technical lead for a project to optimise the Ministry of Defence portfolio of Research and Technology investment to mitigate current and future reactor Mr. Kalyan M. Kemburi, Associate Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies plant degradation mechanisms. In 2005-06, Chris represented the UK Naval Nuclear Propulsion Kalyan M. Kemburi is an Associate Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Programme as part of a small UK technical team embedded at Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory Studies in Singapore. His research interests include military modernization in Asia; nuclear energy in Schenectady, NY. In this role, Chris led and contributed to a number of UK-U.S. workshops on and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons; and China’s foreign and security policies in South and reactor core and plant materials performance, contributing to UK-U.S. collaboration supporting Southeast Asia. He has published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and with the Nuclear Threat development of the UK PWR3 design. From 2007-2009, Chris was responsible for all work Initiative. Kalyan has previously worked with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies associated with the design and justification of current and future reactor core types as manager for and the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs. the Reactor Core Design & Physics department within Rolls-Royce. Currently, Chris is the Assistant Chief Engineer within Rolls-Royce Submarines with responsibility for the construction, testing and Mr. Tong Zhao, PhD Candidate, Sum Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech University commissioning of the Astute-class submarines’ nuclear steam raising plant (NSRP). In this role he Tong Zhao is a PhD candidate in international affairs, science and technology at the Sam provides engineering governance within the company for all work undertaken in relation to the Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. He received his BS in physics and MA in Astute-class programme and a single engineering focus for BAE Systems Submarine Solutions and international affair from Tsinghua University in China. His publications deal with issues of nuclear the UK Ministry of Defence for Astute-class NSRP issues. security, missile defense, missile proliferation, regional strategic stability, and China’s security policy. He is currently working with the Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation on issues related to nuclear signaling and crisis stability. THE STRATEGIC STABILITY LANDSCAPE IN ASIA Mr. Jerry Maxwell, Systems Engineer, Northrop Grumman Corporations Mr. Gregory Weaver, Deputy Director of Plans and Policy, U.S. Strategic Command Jerry Maxwell works as a systems engineer and integrator on ICBM programs and manages the Gregory J. Weaver, a member of the Senior Executive Service, is Deputy Director of Plans and Policy, System Engineering and Integration Center for Northrop Grumman in Clearfield Utah. Prior to U.S. Strategic Command, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb. He is the senior technical adviser for policy, working with Northrop Grumman, Jerry worked as a mechanical/electrical designer while earning strategy, and plans to the Director, Plans and Policy, and the Commander, USSTRATCOM. a bachelor’s degree in computer science, and then developed firmware for the same automated- He is responsible for shaping and implementing national security policies, strategies and plans in guided vehicle company. He joined TRW’s Center for Medical Image Analysis in 1995, developing accordance with the execution of the command’s assigned missions. He also assists in formulating cancer detection software applications using image processing & classification algorithms. In 2002, and implementing strategy for USSTRATCOM’s Unified Command Plan assigned missions. These was hired as a systems engineer for Northrop Grumman to develop models and simulations of the missions include strategic deterrence and global strike; space operations; cyberspace operations; MMIII weapon system, and he is currently involved in developing model-based system designs, combating weapons of mass destruction; missile defense; and intelligence, surveillance and system architectures, and logistic models within the Systems Engineering and Integration Center. reconnaissance. Mr. Weaver represents the Director, Plans and Policy, and the USSTRATCOM Commander at senior level departmental, interagency, and international planning, policy, and strategy meetings and events, and assists in preparing the commander for Congressional hearing NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL AND FORCE REDUCTIONS appearances. Mr. Weaver was born and raised in Schenectady, N.Y. He earned a bachelor’s degree at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, a master’s degree at the University of Amb. Linton Brooks, Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Former Pennsylvania, and is nearing completion of a doctoral degree at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration Mr. Weaver was a legislative assistant for Foreign and Defense Policy for Congressmen Pete Stark Linton F. Brooks is an independent consultant on national security issues, a senior adviser at CSIS, and Charles Bennett, and legislative assistant for Defense Policy for Senator Carl Levin. He worked a distinguished research fellow at the National Defense University, and an adviser to four of the U.S. at Science Applications International Corporation for 18 years as a Senior Analyst, Project Manager, Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories. He served from July 2002 to January 2007 as Division Manager and Assistant Vice President. administrator of DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration, where he was responsible for the U.S. nuclear weapons program and for DOE’s international nuclear nonproliferation programs. Mr. Vincent Manzo, Research Analyst, National Defense University’s Center for Strategic Research Ambassador Brooks has five decades of experience in national security, much of it associated with Vincent Manzo’s research portfolio includes U.S. nuclear weapons policy, extended deterrence, nuclear weapons. His government career has included service as deputy administrator for nuclear missile defense, Conventional Prompt Global Strike, and strategic stability with Russia and China. nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration, assistant director of the U.S. Arms His publications include a co-authored analysis of the Conventional Prompt Global Strike concept Control and Disarmament Agency, chief U.S. negotiator for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and a short research memo examining the debate over the New START Treaty. He holds an MA director of defense programs and arms control on the National Security Council staff, and a number of U.S. Navy and Defense Department assignments as a 30-year career naval officer. Ambassador Ms. Anya Loukianova, PhD Candidate, Policy Studies, University of Maryland Brooks holds degrees in physics from Duke University and in government and politics from the Anya Loukianova is a doctoral student at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy and University of Maryland and is a distinguished graduate of the U.S. Naval War College. He has been a graduate assistant at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM). associated with the CSIS Project of Nuclear Issues (PONI) since its inception. From 2007-2009 and in the summer of 2011, she was a research associate at the Monterey Institute’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) in Monterey, CA and Washington, DC. Dr. Tom Karako, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Kenyon College Anya’s research is focused on transparency and CSBMs in the U.S.-Russian and NATO-Russian Tom Karako is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Kenyon College and the Interim Director relationships. Her dissertation deals with U.S. efforts during the past two decades to develop a of Kenyon’s Center for the Study of American Democracy. Karako received his PhD in Politics and cooperative airspace security structure through the networking and integration of military and Policy from Claremont Graduate University. Before joining Kenyon, he previously taught national civilian air traffic control systems in Central and Eastern Europe. Anya holds an MPIA from the security policy, American government, and constitutional law at Claremont McKenna College and University of Pittsburgh’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (GSPIA). California State University, San Bernardino. For the 2010-11 academic year, he was selected to be an American Political Science Association Congressional Fellow, during which time he worked with the professional staff of the House Armed Services Committee on U.S. strategic forces policy, LUNCH SPEAKER nonproliferation, and NATO. Dr. Karako has published on U.S. defense policy, state politics, and executive-congressional relations. He is currently writing on ballistic missile proliferation and on the Dr. John Hamre, President and CEO, Center for Strategic and International Studies independent constitutional authority of the president to enter into international agreements. John Hamre was elected president and CEO of CSIS in January 2000. Before joining CSIS, he served as the 26th U.S. deputy secretary of defense. Prior to holding that post, he was the under secretary Mr. Tom Devine, Policy Analyst, Science Applications International Corporation of defense (comptroller) from 1993 to 1997. As comptroller, Dr. Hamre was the principal assistant Thomas Devine is a Policy Analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) to the secretary of defense for the preparation, presentation, and execution of the defense budget supporting the Air Force Strategic Plans and Policy Division (AF/A5XP), International Treaties and management improvement programs. In 2007, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates appointed Dr. and Agreements Branch. His work has focused on nuclear-related treaties including the Additional Hamre to serve as chairman of the Defense Policy Board. Protocol and the New START Treaty. Mr. Devine received a BA in Political Science and International Studies from Saint Louis University, and holds a MA in International Security Studies from the Josef Before serving in the Department of Defense, Dr. Hamre worked for 10 years as a professional staff Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. During that time, he was primarily responsible for the oversight and evaluation of procurement, research, and development programs, defense Ms. Rebecca Davis Gibbons, PhD Candidate, Department of Government, Georgetown University budget issues, and relations with the Senate Appropriations Committee. From 1978 to 1984, Dr. Rebecca Davis Gibbons is a third year Government PhD student at Georgetown University with Hamre served in the Congressional Budget Office, where he became its deputy assistant director for a concentration in international relations. Her research interests include the nuclear deterrence, national security and international affairs. In that position, he oversaw analysis and other support for nuclear proliferation and arms control. Before beginning her PhD, Rebecca worked full-time committees in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Dr. Hamre received his PhD, with as contractor support for the Air Force’s International Treaties and Agreements Branch, where distinction, in 1978 from the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University she focused on nuclear-related treaties. She currently maintains this position on a part-time in Washington, D.C., where his studies focused on international politics and economics and U.S. basis. Rebecca received her MA in Security Studies from Georgetown University and her BA in foreign policy. In 1972, he received his BA, with high distinction, from Augustana College in Sioux Psychological and Brain Sciences from Dartmouth College. After graduation from college, she spent Falls, South Dakota, emphasizing political science and economics. The following year, he studied as a a year teaching elementary school in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Rockefeller fellow at the Harvard Divinity School in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Mr. Alejandro Sueldo, JD Candidate, University of California, Berkeley Alejandro Sueldo is a JD candidate and Dean’s Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, EXPLORING THE HISTORY OF THE NPT AND NONPROLIFERATION REGIME School of Law (Boalt Hall). Alejandro has experience in foreign policy and international security affairs, and has held policy positions and foreign assignments with an emphasis on U.S. relations Dr. James Wirtz, Dean, School of International Graduate Studies; Professor, Department of with Europe, NATO, Russia, and Central Asia. He also contributed to the activities of the Argentine National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School Government’s chairmanship of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), and has supported James J. Wirtz is the Dean, School of International Graduate Studies, and Professor in the democratization efforts in South America. Alejandro received a Master of Science in Foreign Service Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. (MSFS) degree from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, has completed graduate He is editor of the Palgrave Macmillan series, Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies and studies at Saint-Petersburg State University (Russia), and holds a BA from the University of Southern section chair of the Intelligence Studies Section of the International Studies Association. He joined California. Alejandro was a Rotary Foundation Ambassadorial Scholar in Russia, an ATHGO the Naval Postgraduate School in 1990 after teaching at Franklin & Marshall College, Penn State International Scholar, and is a recipient of the Yee Fellowship for public service. University, and the State University of New York, Binghamton. the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a research assistant at the Japan Nuclear Cycle In 2005 he was a Visiting Professor at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Development Institute. Snider received a master’s degree from the University of Virginia and a Stanford University. Between January 2000 and January 2005 he served as the Chair of the bachelor’s degree from the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Department of National Security Affairs. He is a past president of the International Security Currently, he is finishing his doctoral degree in political science at the University of California, and Arms Control Section of the American Political Science Association, the author of The Tet Davis. His doctoral dissertation addresses the question of whether the elimination of nuclear Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War, and the co-editor of numerous books, including Planning the weapons is strategically desirable. His research on this question is supported by a fellowship from Unthinkable: New Powers and their Doctrines for Using Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Weapons; the George C. Marshall Foundation. Nuclear Transformation: The New U.S. Nuclear Doctrine; and Arms Control and Cooperative Security. His work on intelligence, deterrence, the Vietnam War and military innovation and strategy Mr. Paul Higson, Organizational Development Specialist, Atomic Weapons Establishment has been published in multiple journals, including Annual Review of Political Science, Comparative Paul Higson is an Organisational Development specialist working for the Atomic Weapons Strategy, International Security, National Security Studies Quarterly, Orbis, Political Science Establishment (AWE), where he concentrates on improving AWE’s effectiveness and efficiency Quarterly, and The NonproliferationReview among others. through development of people, processes and technology. He is a member of the AWE Nuclear Weapons Policy Discussion Programme, and as such, contributes to debates on wider nuclear issues Dean Wirtz teaches courses on nuclear strategy, international relations theory, and intelligence. He for the purposes of personal development. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration is currently working on a monograph, entitled Theory of Surprise, and edited volumes on complex from the University of Southampton. deterrence, intelligence for homeland security, and the future of proliferation. A native of New Jersey, Dean Wirtz earned his degrees in Political Science from Columbia University (MPhil 1987, PhD 1989), and the University of Delaware (MA 1983, BA 1980). In 1985-86 he was a John M. Olin Pre- TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR SECURITY Doctoral Fellow at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. Dr. James Tegnelia, Former Director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency Ms. Jane Vaynman, PhD Candidate, International Relations, Harvard University Dr. James A. Tegnelia was formerly the director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. During Jane Vaynman is a PhD candidate in the Department of Government at Harvard University and a that time Dr. Tegnelia was also dual-hatted as director of the U.S. Strategic Command Center for fellow with the Program on Global Society and Security at the Weatherhead Center for International Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (SCC-WMD). Prior to his selection to lead DTRA, Dr. Affairs. Her current projects include research on security cooperation agreements, arms control, and Tegnelia was the vice president, Department of Defense Programs, Sandia National Laboratories. the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Previously, she worked at the Carnegie Moscow Center and the Dr. Tegnelia had been at Sandia since August 1998. A native of Monessen, Pa., Dr. Tegnelia’s career Nonproliferation Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Jane received her BA began in the United States Army, serving from 1968 to 1971, including a one-year tour in Vietnam. in International Relations from Stanford University, with honors in security studies from the Center From 1971 to 1976, Dr. Tegnelia worked for the U.S. Army Night Vision Laboratory in various for International Security and Cooperation. positions progressing from supervisory research physicist to manager. His organization laid the engineering foundation for night vision devices deployed in Operation Desert Storm/Desert Shield. Mr. Gene Gerzhoy, PhD Candidate, International Relations, University of Chicago In 1976, he transferred to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), serving as a Gene Gerzhoy is a Doctoral Student in International Relations at the University of Chicago. program manager and office director. From 1982 to 1985, he served as the assistant undersecretary of His doctoral research explores the underlying causes of nuclear weapons proliferation and non- defense and acting deputy undersecretary of defense in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense proliferation. Gerzhoy’s other research investigates authoritarian politics in the Middle East, civil- for Research and Engineering, where he oversaw program manager activity on the JSTARS radar military relations, the sources of biased decision-making in foreign policy, and U.S. grand strategy. and ATACMS missile. In 1985, he became the deputy director and later acting director of DARPA. He has researched nuclear proliferation at SAIC, ballistic missile defense at the Jewish Institute for In 1987, he joined the Martin Marietta Corporation, serving as the vice president of Engineering, National Security Affairs, and U.S.-NATO relations at Georgetown University’s Center for the Study and later as the vice president of Business Development of the Electronics Group. In 1993, Dr. of Diplomacy, where he was a Junior Fellow. Gerzhoy has lived and studied in England, Egypt, and Tegnelia became the executive vice president and deputy director of Sandia National Laboratories. the Soviet Union, and he is fluent in Russian and conversant in Arabic. He received his BS from He then became the vice president, Business Development, for the Energy and Environment Sector Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, and his MA from the University of Chicago’s of Lockheed Martin Corporation in 1995, and later served as the president of Lockheed Martin Department of Political Science. Advanced Environmental Systems, Inc. from 1996 to 1998. Dr. Tegnelia earned a bachelor’s degree in physics from Georgetown University, a master’s degree in engineering from George Washington Mr. Jonathan Snider, PhD Candidate, Political Science, University of California, Davis University, and a Ph.D. in physics from The Catholic University of America. His awards and Jonathan S. Snider is a policy analyst in Washington, D.C. and an Instructor at Penn State decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, the Civilian Meritorious Service Medal, and the Senior University. Previously, he was a technical scholar at the Center for Global Security Research at Executive Service Meritorious Service Award. Dr. Tegnelia is currently a Research Professor at the University of New Mexico and a member of the Defense Science board and the State Department International Security Advisory Board. He consults for three DOE National Laboratories. Dr. Brett Isselhardt, Post-doctoral Fellow, Chemical Sciences Division, Lawrence Livermore Ms. Sonia Drobysz, PhD Candidate, Panthéon Sorbonne University; Junior Associate Researcher, National Laboratory Center for International Security and Arms Control Studies Brett Isselhardt is a Post Doctoral Researcher at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He earned Sonia Drobysz is a PhD student in the international law department of University Paris I Panthéon his PhD in Nuclear Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests Sorbonne, where she also assists in teaching international relations and constitutional law. revolve around the security of nuclear materials with a focus on advanced mass spectrometry Her research focuses on the role of the IAEA within the non-proliferation regime from a legal methods. He is also interested in the implications of these interests on national security policy. perspective. She has been awarded a three year doctoral grant from the French Ministry of Education Before starting at Berkeley, Isselhardt received his BS in Physics with Honors from Westmont College and Research, and she benefited from the joint financial support of the French General Secretariat and spent a year in industry developing technology for lithium ion batteries and fuel cell catalysts. for Defence and National Security and the Institute of Higher National Defence Studies in 2010 and 2011. Sonia is also a junior associate research fellow at the French Centre for international Dr. Ruth Kips, Research Scientist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory security and arms control studies (CESIM), and volunteers for the Verification research, training and Ruth Kips has a Masters in Nuclear Engineering and obtained her PhD in Chemistry in 2008 from information centre (VERTIC). She is a member of the International network of emerging nuclear the University of Antwerp in Belgium. She started her career as a nuclear engineer at one of the specialists (INENS)’ Steering Committee, within which she is in charge of public relations and Belgian nuclear power plants before moving to the area of nuclear safeguards at the Joint Research INENS activities in Europe. Centre of the European Commission. At the Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM), she worked on the production and analysis of uranium particles from UF6 hydrolysis. Mr. Michael M. Lieberman, Associate, International Department, Steptoe & Johnson LLP, In 2008, she joined the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where she has been involved in Washington D.C.; Fellow, Truman National Security Project nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards and the environmental transport of actinides. Michael Lieberman is an associate in the Washington office of Steptoe & Johnson LLP, where he is a member of the International Department. His practice focuses on export controls, economic Mr. Paul Booker, Mechanical Engineer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory sanctions, anti-corruption and international trade. He has written extensively on export control law Paul Booker is a mechanical engineer at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, and regulations, and has presented on illicit procurement networks and nuclear proliferation at the Washington. He supports the PNNL arms control working group as an analyst, contributes to University of Reading (UK) and the Indian Society of International Law. Previous work experience Department of Energy nonproliferation and export control programs as an instructor, and strives to includes the Office of Management and Budget, National Security Division, the Asia Foundation integrate information visualization software into nonproliferation analysis. Formerly, Paul worked and the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of California. Michael is also a Fellow at the as a systems engineer for five years at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, California testing Truman National Security Project. Michael holds a J.D. from the University of California at Berkeley advanced concepts to maintain a safe and secure U.S. nuclear stockpile. He has a master’s degree in and an MAL.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. mechanical engineering from the University of California, Davis.

KEYNOTE SPEAKER EXPANDING THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME TO ADDRESS CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES General Robert Kehler, Commander, United States Strategic Command Gen. C. Robert “Bob” Kehler is Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb. Mr. Patrick Disney, MA Candidate, International Relations, Yale University He is responsible for the plans and operations for all U.S. forces conducting strategic deterrence and Patrick Disney is currently pursuing an MA in international relations at Yale University, focusing Department of Defense space and cyberspace operations. on Iran and nuclear nonproliferation. He is a regular contributor to The Atlantic’s international section, writing about homeland security, nuclear issues, and the Middle East. Previously, he was General Kehler entered the Air Force in 1975 as a distinguished graduate of the Air Force ROTC the Assistant Policy Director at the National Iranian American Council, the largest nation-wide program. He has commanded at the squadron, group, wing and major command levels, and has a grassroots organization representing the Iranian-American community, and coordinator of the broad range of operational and command tours in ICBM operations, space launch, space operations, Campaign for a New American Policy on Iran, a coalition of national advocacy organizations missile warning and space control. He commanded a Minuteman ICBM operations squadron at promoting a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran conflict. He has written for The Huffington Post, Whiteman AFB, Mo., and the Air Force’s largest ICBM operations group at Malmstrom AFB, Mont. PBS Frontline’s “Tehran Bureau,” and Foreign Policy’s “Middle East Channel.” The research for this He served as Deputy Director of Operations, Air Force Space Command, and commanded both presentation was made possible by a grant from Yale’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. the 30th Space Wing at Vandenberg AFB, Calif., and the 21st Space Wing at Peterson AFB, Colo. As Deputy Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, he helped provide the President and Secretary of Defense with a broad range of strategic capabilities and options for the joint warfighter through several diverse mission areas, including space operations, integrated missile defense, computer network operations and global strike. General Kehler also commanded Air Force Space About CSIS At a time of new global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic Command and America’s ICBM force before its transition from Air Force Space Command to Air and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and bipartisan policy Force Global Strike Command in December 2009. solutions to decisionmakers in government, international institutions, the private sector, and civil society. A bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in The general’s staff assignments include wing-level planning and tours with the Air Staff, Strategic Washington, DC, CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire Air Command headquarters and Air Force Space Command. He was also assigned to the and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to Secretary of the Air Force’s Office of Legislative Liaison, where he was the point man on Capitol finding ways for America to sustain its prominence and prosperity as a force for Hill for matters regarding the President’s ICBM Modernization Program. As Director of the good in the world. National Security Space Office, he integrated the activities of a number of space organizations on behalf of the Under Secretary of the Air Force and Director, National Reconnaissance Office.▪ Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent international policy institutions, with more than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focused on defense and security, regional stability, and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global development and economic integration.

Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since April 2000.

About the The role of nuclear weapons in international security has changed since the end of the Cold War, but the need to maintain technical and policy expertise to deal with Project on nuclear challenges remains the same. For a host of reasons, including the declining emphasis on nuclear weapons in the post-Cold War international security environ- Nuclear ment, expertise on nuclear issues became an acute challenge, particularly among Issues younger generations. For this reason, CSIS launched the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) in 2003 to develop the next generation of nuclear experts. Since that time PONI has grown tremendously, from a small club involving a few dozen people to a large, multi-faceted program with over 1,100 members.

The project has three primary objectives. First, PONI aims to build and sustain a networked community of young nuclear experts from across the nuclear enterprise, including in the laboratories, military, industry, academia, and policy world. Second, the project seeks to help develop the next generation of leaders with both the necessary subject matter expertise and the professional skills to be effective in shaping and implementing policy. Third, PONI works to mobilize the wide-ranging nuclear expertise within its membership ranks to generate new ideas and advance the public debate on all issues concerning nuclear weapons.

To achieve these objectives, PONI maintains an enterprise-wide membership base, hosts four major conferences and several smaller events each year, maintains an online blog, holds live debates on critical nuclear weapons issues, runs a six-month academic program for young experts, organizes bilateral exchanges involving young experts from the U.S. and abroad, oversees a working group of top young professionals, and distributes bi-weekly news and event announcements to members. In all that it does, PONI seeks to create forums for knowledge transfer between generations and between sectors, as sustaining these interactions will be crucial to the development and implementation of effective nuclear policy, both now and in the future. 1800 k street, nw, washington, dc 20006 t. 202.887.0300 | f. 202.775.3199 [email protected] | www.csis.org/isp/poni