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Nuclear Issues 2011 Capstone Conference Tuesday, December 6, 2011 U.S

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Nuclear Issues 2011 Capstone Conference Tuesday, December 6, 2011 U.S Project on Nuclear Issues 2011 Capstone Conference tuesday, december 6, 2011 u.s. strategic command Dear Capstone Conference Participants: Key Contacts: Since 2003, the PONI conference series has provided a forum for rising experts in the field to advance the debate on nuclear issues by presenting Clark Murdock insights from their independent research and their professional experiences. Senior Adviser and PONI Director Today’s event, which marks the culmination of the 2011 PONI conference Office: 202.775.3182 series, features a selection of some of the best presentations given at several Fax: 202.775.3199 preceding conferences this year. [email protected] The 2011 conference series included events hosted by the Nevada National Mark Jansson Security Site, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Lawrence Deputy Director, Livermore National Laboratory. The series also encompassed the inaugural Project on Nuclear Issues event of the UK Project on Nuclear Issues, which was officially launched by Office: 202.775.3286 the Royal United Services Institute this year. These conferences drew over Fax: 202.775.3199 500 participants in total and each featured rich discussion on a range of [email protected] important issues affecting nuclear weapons strategy, policy, and science. On several occasions, conference participants were given the opportunity to tour John K. Warden the host site’s facilities to get a first-hand look at some of the scientific and Program Coordinator, technological work being done to sustain the nuclear stockpile and advance Project on Nuclear Issues security in other areas. Office: 202.741.3863 Fax: 202.775.3199 It has indeed been a highly successful year for the PONI conference series [email protected] and we hope that you find the presentations and ensuing discussion at this year’s capstone event to be thought-provoking and enjoyable. As you engage Cover photos: (Main photo) Sandia Labs photo; (Top left) iStockphoto; in this discussion, please remember that all comments made today are off- (Bottom left) U.S. Department of Defense photo. the-record. This rule obtains today, as it does at all PONI events, in order to foster more candid exchanges among participants, so thank you in-advance for honoring it. Finally, PONI would like to thank U.S. Strategic Command for hosting the capstone event again this year. The interactions that take place between PONI members and senior leaders from Strategic Command are invaluable, and we are therefore very grateful to have the opportunity to be here and to have all of you as guests. Sincerely, The PONI Staff PONI 2011 Capstone Conference tuesday, december 6, 2011 agenda 7:00 CONFERENCE CHECK-IN AND BREAKFAST 7:50 CONFERENCE WELCOME Dr. Clark Murdock, Senior Adviser and PONI Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies 8:00 MAINTAINING NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES IN THE U.S. AND UK Mr. David Jarvis CBE, Director, UK PONI, Royal United Services Institute; Strategic Systems Analyst, Lockheed Martin OVERVIEW OF WEAPONS ENTERPRISE TRANSFORMATION AND MATHEMATICAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS Dr. Carol Meyers, Mathematician, National Security Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ENHANCED NUCLEAR DETONATION SAFETY Mr. Raymond Wolfgang, Member of Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories THE UK-FRANCE NUCLEAR AGREEMENT IN CONTEXT Mr. Matt Harries, PhD Candidate, Department of War Studies, King’s College London MANAGEMENT OF KEY TECHNOLOGIES IN THE UK NAVAL NUCLEAR PROPULSION PROGRAME Mr. Christopher Palmer, Assistant Chief Engineer, Astute Programme, Rolls Royce Submarines 9:20 BREAK 9:30 STRATEGIC STABILITY CHALLENGES IN ASIA Moderator: Mr. Gregory Weaver, Deputy Director of Plans and Policy, U.S. Strategic Command THE THREAT THAT LEAVES SOMETHING TO CHANCE IN U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS Mr. Vincent Manzo, Research Analyst, Institute For National Strategic Studies, National Defense University CRUISE MISSILES IN SOUTHERN ASIA: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA AND INDIA Mr. Kalyan Kemburi, Associate Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies ARE CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS A VIABLE OPTION FOR DAMAGE LIMITATION TRANSITION TO ZERO: A CHANGE LEADERSHIP PERSPECTIVE OPERATIONS AGAINST MEDIUM-SIZED NUCLEAR-ARMED ADVERSARIES? Mr. Paul Higson, Organizational Development Specialist, Atomic Weapons Establishment Mr. Tong Zhao, PhD Candidate, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech University 3:20 BREAK BENEFITS OF ICBMS TO U.S. NUCLEAR POSTURE AND GLOBAL STABILITY 3:30 TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR SECURITY Mr. Jerry Maxwell, Systems Engineer, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems Moderator: Dr. James A. Tegnelia, Former Director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency 11:00 BREAK MULTI-ACTINIDE RESONANCE IONIZATION MASS SPECTROMETRY (RIMS) FOR NUCLEAR FORENSICS APPLICATIONS AND RAPID RESPONSE 11:10 NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL AND FORCE REDUCTIONS Dr. Brett Isselhardt, Post-doctoral Fellow, Chemical Sciences Division, Lawrence Livermore Moderator: Amb. Linton Brooks, Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International National Laboratory Studies; Former Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration CHARACTERIZATION OF URANIUM OXYFLUORIDE PARTICLES NEXT STEPS IN ARMS CONTROL: RESTORING CONSENSUS ON NUCLEAR FOR NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS POLICY Dr. Ruth Kips, Research Scientist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Dr. Tom Karako, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Kenyon College VERIFICATION CHALLENGES AT LOW NUMBERS QUALITATIVE CONSIDERATIONS FOR NUCLEAR FORCES FOR FUTURE Mr. Paul Booker, Mechanical Engineer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS Mr. Tom Devine, Policy Analyst, Science Applications International Corporation and 4:45 BREAK Ms. Rebecca Gibbons, PhD Candidate, International Relations, Georgetown University 4:55 BUILDING THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME TO ADDRESS CONTEXTUALIZING AND ENGAGING RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POLICY CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES Mr. Alejandro Sueldo, JD Candidate, University of California, Berkeley Moderator: Dr. Clark Murdock, Senior Adviser and PONI Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies THE DUMA-SENATE LOGJAM REVISITED: ACTIONS AND REACTIONS IN RUSSIAN TREATY RATIFICATION DEBATES IRAN’S NUCLEAR STRATEGY: UNDERSTANDING TEHRAN’S Ms. Anya Loukianova, PhD Candidate, Policy Studies, University of Maryland ACQUISITION PATHWAY Mr. Patrick Disney, MA Candidate, International Relations, Yale University 12:40 LUNCH AND AFTERNOON KEYNOTE Dr. John Hamre, President and CEO, Center for Strategic and International Studies STRENGTHENING THE IAEA: THE DOUBLE TRACK Ms. Sonia Drobysz, PhD candidate, Panthéon Sorbonne University; Junior Associate 2:00 EXPLORING THE HISTORY OF THE NPT AND NONPROLIFERATION REGIME Researcher, Center for International Security and Arms Control Studies (France) Moderator: Dr. James Wirtz, Dean, School of International Graduate Studies; Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School TRANSNATIONAL NETWORKS AND NONPROLIFERATION: STRENGTHENING THE MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR EXPORT CONTROL REGIME SUPERPOWER COLLUSION AND THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION Mr. Michael M. Lieberman, Associate, International Department, Steptoe & TREATY Johnson LLP; Fellow, Truman National Security Project Ms. Jane Vaynman, PhD Candidate, International Relations, Harvard University 6:15 END OF PRESENTATION PANELS MILITARY TRADEOFFS AS A CONSTRAINT ON NUCLEAR ACQUISITION Mr. Gene Gerzhoy, PhD Candidate, International Relations, University of Chicago 6:30 RECEPTION AT THE PATRIOT CLUB THE QUESTION OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND THE 7:15 DINNER AND EVENING KEYNOTE ENFORCEMENT PARADOX General Robert Kehler, Commander, United States Strategic Command Mr. Jonathan Snider, PhD Candidate, Political Science, University of California, Davis 8:30 END OF CONFERENCE of the UK Trident II D5 system. He had previously created and led a specialist expert team in conducting the preliminary research into nuclear deterrence options - the findings of which SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES informed the government’s White Paper. He thereby became part of the initial programme for a potential successor SSBN. He also created and directed a Deterrence Customer Group in the MoD’s Equipment Capability area for the current and future deterrent. Prior to that he served at US CONFERENCE WELCOME Strategic Command in Omaha Nebraska as the UK and NATO targeting officer, was the assistant director for nuclear policy in the MoD, and spent time at sea in Polaris-, Chevaline- and Trident- equipped SSBNs. Dr. Clark Murdock, Senior Adviser and PONI Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies Dr. Carol Meyers, Mathematician, National Security Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore Clark Murdock is the senior adviser for the U.S .Defense and National Security Group at CSIS National Laboratory and the director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI). Joining CSIS in January 2001, Murdock Carol has worked as a mathematician at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since has completed studies on a wide range of defense and national security issues, including strategic receiving her PhD in operations research from MIT in 2006. Her expertise is in the areas planning, defense policy and governance, and U.S. nuclear weapons strategy and policy. He of integer and linear programming optimization, agent-based modeling, discrete event directed the four-phase study on Defense Department reform, “Beyond Goldwater-Nichols: USG simulation, and decision theory. She has been involved in nuclear enterprise modeling since and Defense
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