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Thesis Reference Thesis The mexican debt crisis of 1982 Redux: domestic banks, international interbank markets and debt renegotiation ALVAREZ, Sebastian Abstract Cette thèse étudie l'implication des banques mexicaines dans la finance internationale pendant la décennie précédant la crise de la dette de 1982. L'analyse se concentre sur un mécanisme de transmission reliant la banque internationale, l'économie domestique et le financement souverain, à savoir les dépôts interbancaires. Elle montre que l'incorporation à grande échelle des dépôts interbancaires internationaux dans les stratégies de financement des banques commerciales mexicaines a: (a) rendu les banques plus vulnérables aux fluctuations financières mondiales, (b) été à l'origine de risques plus élevés pris par le système bancaire, et (c) contraint la stratégie de négociation du gouvernement mexicain à la suite de son propre défaut. En utilisant à la fois des méthodes historiques et quantitatives et une analyse tant micro que macroéconomique, la thèse propose une nouvelle dimension pour comprendre les origines et le développement de la crise internationale de la dette des années 1980. Reference ALVAREZ, Sebastian. The mexican debt crisis of 1982 Redux: domestic banks, international interbank markets and debt renegotiation. Thèse de doctorat : Univ. Genève, 2016, no. SdS 50 URN : urn:nbn:ch:unige-912555 DOI : 10.13097/archive-ouverte/unige:91255 Available at: http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:91255 Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version. 1 / 1 The Mexican Debt Crisis of 1982 Redux: Domestic Banks, International Interbank Markets and Debt Renegotiation THÈSE présentée à la Faculté des sciences de la société de l’Université de Genève par Sebastian Alvarez sous la direction de Prof. Mary O'Sullivan et Prof. Juan Flores Zendejas pour l’obtention du grade de Docteur ès sciences de la société mention histoire économique et sociale Membres du jury de thèse: Prof. Lucio BACCARO, président du jury, Université de Genève Prof. Juan FLORES ZENDEJAS, co-directeur de thèse, Université de Genève Prof. Mary O'SULLIVAN, co-directrice de thèse, Université de Genève Prof. Ugo PANIZZA, The Graduate Institute, Geneva Prof. Jérôme SGARD, Sciences-Po Paris Prof. Gail TRINER, Rutgers University, USA Thèse no 50 Genève, 6 octobre 2016 Abstract This dissertation investigates the involvement of Mexican banks in foreign finance during the decade leading up to the 1982 debt crisis. More specifically, it focuses on a transmission mechanism that links international banking, domestic economy and sovereign finance, which has been overlooked so far: interbank deposits. The dissertation demonstrates that the large-scale incorporation of interbank deposits from international banks into the funding strategies of Mexican commercial banks made: (a) the banks more susceptible to world financial fluctuations, (b) was at the root of greater risks in the banking system and (c) constrained the negotiating strategy of the Mexican state in the wake of its own default. Through a combination of macro and micro-analysis and the use of both historical and quantitative methods, I propose a novel dimension to understand the origins and development of the international debt crisis of the 1980s based on the study of the Mexican banking sector. -------------------------------------------- Résumé Cette thèse étudie l'implication des banques mexicaines dans la finance internationale pendant la décennie précédant la crise de la dette de 1982. L'analyse se concentre sur un mécanisme de transmission reliant la banque internationale, l'économie domestique et le financement souverain, à savoir les dépôts interbancaires. Elle montre que l'incorporation à grande échelle des dépôts interbancaires internationaux dans les stratégies de financement des banques commerciales mexicaines a: (a) rendu les banques plus vulnérables aux fluctuations financières mondiales, (b) été à l'origine de risques plus élevés pris par le système bancaire, et (c) contraint la stratégie de négociation du gouvernement mexicain à la suite de son propre défaut. En utilisant à la fois des méthodes historiques et quantitatives et une analyse tant micro que macroéconomique, la thèse propose une nouvelle dimension pour comprendre les origines et le développement de la crise internationale de la dette des années 1980. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am particularly grateful to my advisors Mary A. O'Sullivan and Juan H. Flores Zendejas for careful guidance, engagement and support. My special thanks to Gail Triner and Jérôme Sgard for valuable feedback provided all throughout my Phd. I am also indebted to Lucio Baccaro, Stefano Battilossi, Gustavo del Angel, Marc Flandreau, Carlos Marichal, Aldo Musacchio, Sergio Negrete Cárdenas, Ugo Panizza, Huges Pirottes, Ricardo Solis, Richard Sylla and Eugene White for critical comments and helpful suggestions at different stages of my research. Participants at workshops, seminars and conferences at the University of Sussex, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Université de Neuchatel, Universidad del Pacífico and Pontíficia Universidad Católica del Perú, University of Pisa, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Université Libre de Bruxèlles, Banamex, University of Geneva, El Colegio de Mexico, Rutgers University, New York University, SSHES/SGWSG, Universidad de Cantabria, Freie Universität Berlin, CLADHE III, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and Université de Fribourg are also thanked for comments. Finally, I would like to thank archivists at Banamex, Banco de Mexico, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bank of England, Bank for International Settlements, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Lloyds Bank and Columbia University for assistance, as well as Lee Buchheit, Angel Gurría, Carlos Tello and William Rhodes for sharing their insightful experiences. CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter One. Analytical Framework ..................................................................................................... 3 1.1. The underpinnings of debt crisis................................................................................................. 4 1.2. The economics and politics of international lending ................................................................. 8 1.3. The management of sovereign debt crisis ............................................................................... 11 1.4. A new perspective from the role of Mexican banks ................................................................ 15 Chapter Two. Historical Background ................................................................................................... 18 2.1. Mexico, commercial banks and the international debt crisis of the 1980s ............................ 18 2.2. Euromarkets, international finance and external Indebtedness ............................................. 22 2.3. Interbank markets, domestic banks and banking fragility ...................................................... 29 2.4. Foreign agencies, debt renegotiation and crisis management ................................................ 35 2.5. Domestic policies, macroeconomic imbalances and financial crisis ....................................... 39 2.6. Sources, data and methodology ............................................................................................... 44 Chapter Three. Internationalization and Condition of Mexican Banks Prior to the 1982 Crisis ....... 48 3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 49 3.2. The historical context of the Mexican banking industry ......................................................... 50 3.3. Incursion into foreign finance, 1972-1976 ............................................................................... 53 3.4. From domestic to foreign funding, 1977-1982 ......................................................................... 58 3.5. The underlying weaknesses of the banking industry ............................................................... 61 3.6. Inspection at the bank level ...................................................................................................... 64 3.7. An econometric interlude ......................................................................................................... 68 3.8. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 72 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................... 74 Chapter Four. International Interbank Markets and Financial Crisis ................................................. 77 4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 78 4.2. Foreign intermediation by Mexican banks ............................................................................... 80 4.3. An interbank market based business model ............................................................................ 82 4.4. The risks behind Mexican foreign agencies .............................................................................. 85 4.5. The making of a distressed banking system ............................................................................
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