Modelling Fire Behaviour and Risk Eds. Donatella Spano, Valentina Bacciu, Michele Salis, Costantino Sirca Supported by PROTERINA-C Project EU Italia-Francia Marittimo 2007-2013 Programme Modelling Fire Behaviour and Risk Supported by PROTERINA-C Project: A forecast and prevention system for climate change impacts on risk variability for wildlands and urban areas (EU Italia-Francia Marittimo 2007-2013 Programme) Editors Donatella Valentina Michele Costantino Spano Bacciu Salis Sirca Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DipNeT), University of Sassari, Italy; Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Changes (CMCC), IAFENT Division, Sassari, Italy ISBN Supported by Under the patronage of 978-88-904409-7-7 Printed by Nuova StampaColor S.r.l. Industria Grafica PROTERINA-C Project Zona Industriale EU Italia-Francia Muros 07030 Muros Marittimo 2007-2013 (Sassari, Italy) Programme Graphic Design and Layout Valentina Bacciu and Michele Salis Cover Photo by Sandro Tedde www.sandrotedde.com May, 2012 «Dixerat ille, et iam per moenia clarior ignis auditur, propiusque aestus incendia volvunt. “ergo age, care pater, cervici imponere nostrae; ipse subibo umeris nec me labor iste gravabit; quo res cumque cadent, unum et commune periclum, una salus ambobus erit.” » Publius Vergilius Maro Aeneis, Liber II, vv 705-710 «He spoke; and higher o'er the blazing walls leaped the loud fire, while ever nearer drew the rolling surges of tumultuous flame. “Haste, father, on these bending shoulders climb! This back is ready, and the burden light; one peril smites us both, whate'er befall; one rescue both shall find.” » Publius Vergilius Maro Aeneid, Book II, vv 705-710 Theodore C. Williams, trans., 1910 CONTENTS CONTENTS I FOREWORD V INTRODUCTION VII PROTERINA-C PROJECT IX EDITORIAL BOARD IX SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FIRE BEHAVIOUR AND RISK (ICFBR 2011) XIII EDITORS XV VEGETATION AND FIRES 1 FUEL TYPES AND POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOUR IN SARDINIA AND CORSICA ISLANDS: A PILOT STUDY 2 DUCE P., PELLIZZARO G., ARCA B., BACCIU V., SALIS M., SPANO D., SANTONI P.A., BARBONI T., LEROY V., CANCELLIERI D., LEONI E., FERRAT L., PEREZ Y. THE POTENTIAL OF REMOTE SENSING MEASUREMENTS OF CANOPY REFLECTANCE FOR THE EVALUATION OF LIVE FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND FIRE HAZARD MAPPING 9 MAFFEI C., MENENTI M. EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION INTO DYNAMICS OF FLAME TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS DURING BURNING OF COMBUSTIBLE PLANT MATERIALS BY IR METHODS 15 LOBODA E.L., REYNO V.V. STUDY OF THE COMBUSTION OF THE EVOLVED GASES IN WILDLAND FIRES AND THE EMISSION OF POLLUTANTS: THE EFFECT OF H2O 21 PEREZ Y., SANTONI P.A., LEROY V., LEONI E. ANALYSIS OF SMOKE FROM MEDITERRANEAN SPECIES BURNED WITH A CONE CALORIMETER 27 ROMAGNOLI E., CHIARAMONTI N., BARBONI T., SANTONI P.A. ESTIMATING VEGETATION FIRE EMISSIONS FROM SARDINIAN WILDLAND FIRES (2005-2009) 34 BACCIU V., PELLIZZARO G., SALIS M., ARCA B., DUCE P., SPANO D. A METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE IGNITION CHARACTERISTICS OF FOREST LITTER 41 SCHUNK C., LEUTNER C., LEUCHNER M., MENZEL A. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PEAT LAYER DRYING 47 FILKOV A.I., GRISHIN A.M., GLADKY D.A. i CLIMATE AND FIRES 55 FIRE–WEATHER RELATIONSHIP IN THE ITALIAN PENINSULA 56 MASALA F., BACCIU V., SIRCA C., SPANO D. ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS INFLUENCING WILDFIRE STATIC RISK IN SARDINIA AND LIGURIA (ITALY) 63 BODINI A., ENTRADE E., COSSU Q.A., FIORUCCI P., BIONDI G. HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND FIRE REGIME IN ASAGI KÖPRÜÇAY BASIN (ANTALYA, TURKEY) 70 KAVGACI A., SALIS M., ARCA B., COSGUN U., GUNGOROGLU C., SPANO D. PREDICTED AND OBSERVED CLIMATE-INDUCED FIRE IN THE ALTAI-SAYAN MTS, CENTRAL ASIA, DURING THE HOLOCENE 78 TCHEBAKOVA N.M., PARFENOVA E.I., SOJA A.J., BLYAKHARCHUK T.A. DETAILED DOWNSCALING THROUGH ENSEMBLE TECHNIQUES OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS FOR A FIRE WEATHER INDICES PROJECTION IN THE ALPINE REGION 85 CANE D., BARBARINO S., RENIER L., RONCHI C. POTENTIAL CHANGES IN FIRE PROBABILITY AND SEVERITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN MEDITERRANEAN AREAS 92 ARCA B., PELLIZZARO G., DUCE P., SALIS M., BACCIU V. , SPANO D., AGER A., SCOCCIMARRO E. EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (EURO-MEDITERRANEAN) SCALE 99 SANNA A., SCOCCIMARRO E., GUALDI S., BELLUCCI A., MONTESARCHIO M., BUCCHIGNANI E. MODELING FIRE BEHAVIOUR AND RISK 107 ANALYZING THE SPATIAL TRANSMISSION OF WILDFIRE RISK FROM LARGE FIRES 108 AGER A., FINNEY M.A., VAILLANT N.M. FIRE BEHAVIOR MODELING IN LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS 114 BEUTLING A., BATISTA A.C., VIANA SOARES R. AN APPLICATION OF THE LEVEL-SET METHOD TO FIRE FRONT PROPAGATION 120 GHISU T., ARCA B., PELLIZZARO G., DUCE P. THE RANDOMIZED LEVEL-SET METHOD TO MODEL TURBULENCE EFFECTS IN WILDLAND FIRE PROPAGATION 126 PAGNINI G., MASSIDDA L. FIRE BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS OF THE ANELA WILDFIRE (SARDINIA, 1945) 132 FOIS C., CASULA F., SALIS M., DESSY C., FALCHI S., MAVULI S., PIGA A., SANNA S., SPANO D. EXTREME WILDFIRE SPREAD AND BEHAVIOUR: A CASE STUDY FROM NORTH SARDINIA 138 SALIS M., MAVULI S., FALCHI S., PIGA A., DESOLE G., MONTESU G.P., SPANO D. MURAVERA 2010: ANALYSIS OF AN EXTREME WILDFIRE 145 DELOGU G., MURRANCA S., DEIANA E., CABIDDU S. THE CURRAGGIA WILDFIRE, ANALYSIS OF AN ENTRAPMENT (28 JULY 1983) 150 CABIDDU S., BRIGAGLIA S., CONGIU F., DELOGU G., LARA G., MUNTONI G., USAI L. CROWN FIRES IN CONIFER FORESTS OF THE WORLD: DO YOU HAVE SOMETHING TO CONTRIBUTE OR WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW ABOUT SOMETHING? 160 ALEXANDER M.E., CRUZ M.G., VAILLANT N.M. IS FIRE SUPPRESSION REDUCING LARGE FIRES IN NUMBER AND SIZE IN SPAIN? YEARS 1968- 2009 166 MOLINA TERREN D.M., CARDIL FORRADELLAS A. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF PRESCRIBED BURNING AND TACTICAL FIRES ON FIRE RISK MITIGATION 174 SALIS M., DIANA G., CASULA F., FARRIS G., FARRIS O., LICHERI F., MUSINA G., OROTELLI S., PELUFFO L., PIRISI A.M., BACCIU V., FOIS C., SIRCA C., SPANO D. ii NATURAL AND SOCIAL FACTORS INFLUENCING FOREST FIRE OCCURRENCE AT A LOCAL SPATIAL SCALE 181 CHAS-AMIL M., TOUZA J., PRESTEMON J.P., MCCLEAN C.J. EVALUATION OF THE INTEGRATED FIRE INDEX (IFI) IN SARDINIA 187 SPANO D., SALIS M., ARCA B., DUCE P., BACCIU V., SIRCA C. AN OPERATIONAL DIAGNOSTIC CHAIN, IMPLEMENTED WITHIN THE PROTERINA-C PROJECT, TO INCLUDE WEATHER MEASURES IN RISICO MODEL 193 DESSY C., FIORUCCI P., D'ANDREA M., TRASFORINI E., DI CARLO L., FOIS G., CANU S., CASULA M., CAVALLI G., CONGIU G., IDINI M., PETRETTO F., PINNA NOSSAI R., RANCATI S., SIRCA C. , PELLIZZARO G., ARCA B. USING REAL TIME REMOTE SENSING DATA IN THE RISICO SYSTEM: THE CASE STUDY OF SARDINIA REGION 199 CAVALLI G., D’ANDREA M., FIORUCCI P., MANNU G., PINNA NOSSAI R., CAPECE P., BIANCO G., CANU S. EVALUATING FIRE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH REPETITIVE ARMED CONFLICTS 205 MITRI G., NADER M., VAN DER MOLEN I., LOVETT J. FIRES AND WILDLAND URBAN INTERFACES 211 RESIDENTIAL FIRE DESTRUCTION DURING WILDFIRES: A HOME IGNITION PROBLEM 212 COHEN J.D. IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ASPECTS AS A WAY TO PREVENT FIRE RISK IN FIRE PRONE COMMUNITIES. CASES OF STUDY IN SPAIN 218 QUESADA C., QUESADA D. ENHANCING FOREST FIRES PREPAREDNESS IN PORTUGAL: THE RELEVANCE OF INTEGRATING RISK COMMUNICATION WITH COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 224 PATON D., TEDIM F. MODELING CHANGES IN WUI TO BETTER PREVIEW CHANGES IN FOREST FIRE RISK 231 MAILLÉ E., ESPINASSE B. AN ANALYSIS ON WILDLAND URBAN INTERFACE IN PORTUGAL 237 RIBEIRO L.M., VIEGAS D.X. EUROPEAN SOFTWARE TOOLS FOR MAPPING WILDLAND URBAN INTERFACES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN CONTEXT 243 BOUILLON C., FERNÁNDEZ RAMIRO M.M., SIRCA C., FIERRO GARCÍA B., LONG-FOURNEL M., CASULA F. WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE DYNAMICS DURING THE LAST 50 YEARS IN NORTH EAST SARDINIA 249 PELLIZZARO G., ARCA B., PINTUS G.V., FERRARA R., DUCE P. MULTISCALE MODELLING OF FOREST FIRE SMOKE EMISSIONS IMPACT ON URBAN AIR QUALITY AT THE PEDESTRIAN LEVEL 255 AMORIM J.H., MIRANDA A.I., SÁ E., MARTINS V., RIBEIRO C., COUTINHO M., BORREGO C. AUTHORS 263 iii FOREWORD It is my pleasure to present this volume that collects most of the papers delivered at the International Conference on Fire Behaviour and Risk, which held in Alghero (Sardinia, Italy) in October 2011. The Conference was organized in the framework of the European Project Proterina-C, Italia-Francia Marittimo Programme, co-sponsored by the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC), an action of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR), under the patronage of University of Sassari, the Euro- Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC), the Regional Administration of Sardinia, and the Province Administration of Sassari. The Project involved three cross- border regions (Sardinia, Corsica, Liguria), which face similar several environmental issues, among which fire is one of the main concerns, especially in the Mediterranean Basin. Fire is a complex phenomenon caused mainly by human activities, and we are still learning how to bind and fight fires. The purpose for this volume is to present key main results of the project activities and to review the most relevant research results from other countries. In addition, the volume represents a step ahead in disseminating recent and relevant scientific results and advances in forest fire research. The relationship between humans and fire can be traced to the origin of our civilization. Since ancient times, fire has been considered as a sacred and powerful element. In the Greek mythology, fire could be used only by Gods. When Prometheus stole a spark from the Olympus and gave it to mankind, humans gained warmth and light. Caves were no longer dark and life became safer. However, fire is a good servant, but a bad master. It has to be kept under control. Once it is out of control, it has the ability to take away lives and destroy property.