Methodology, Challenges and Opportunities Presentation of the Project ENCI-Lowcarb – European Network Engaging Civil Society in Low Carbon Scenarios

Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities PRESENTATION OF THE PROJECT ENCI-LOWCarb – EUROPEAN NETWORK ENGAGING CIVIL SOCIETY IN LOW CARBON SCENARIOS The aim of the project ENCI-Lowcarb is to develop ambitious and socially Project: Meike Fink, Ruben Bibas acceptable low carbon scenarios for Germany and France. In an iterative discussion process between researchers and stakeholders the acceptance Guest authors: Anita Wyss, Anja Doleschek, Benjamin Gugel, Charles Es- towards the elaborated scenarios is evaluated and broadened. menjaud, Chris Church, Cord Hoppenbrock, Gildas Le Saux, Harry Lehmann, Jan Minx, Jeanne Frangié, Joaquim Corominas, Jordi Miralles, Josep Puig, Also an “European Network on Low Carbon Scenarios” composed by CSOs Julien Berthier, Khaled Gaiji, Marta Garcia, Pierrick Yalamas, Raphaëlle (Civil Society Organizations) and researchers is created in order to establish Gauthier, Sarah Becker, Severin Poutrel, Yves Marignac a lively exchange on existing energy scenarios and best practices to meet the requirements of a low carbon society. Translation: George McGairl, Hannah Mowat Layout / illustration: faceauvent.fr This publication has been put together by the ENCI-Lowcarb project. Project partners: Réseau Action Climate – France (RAC-F), Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement (CIRED), Germanwatch, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Network for Sustainable Energy - Europe (INFORSE-Europe) www.lowcarbon-societies.eu 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement N° 213106. The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the ENCI- Lowcarb network and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. INTRODUCTION: THE FUTURE IS IN OUR HANDS .............................................................................................................................. 5 I. CREATION OF SUB-NATIONAL SCENARIOS ACTORS, MOTIVATIONS AND OBJECTIVES ..................................................................... 7 1. Local climate and energy policy in Europe - Are governments empowering local government to take action on climate change? ......................... 10 2. Nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (Schémas Régionaux Climat Air Energie - SRCAE) .............................................11 3. Different actors – different objectives and different methodologies? ..................................................................................................... 14 II. LOCAL AND REGIONAL LOW EMISSION SCENARIOS METHODOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL ASPECTS ..............................................16 1. Energy scenarios – methodologies and typologies …or how the form determines the content!..................................................................... 18 • Explorative, normative or optimizing �� 18 • Bottom-up, Top-down or hybrid approaches ..................................................................................................................................... 18 • Reality is complex… ..................................................................................................................................................................... 19 • For more information �� 19 2. How to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective? ..............................................................................20 3. Backcasting and forecasting �� 23 4. Emission or carbon gap – objectives need to undergo a reality check ......................................................................................................24 5. Local emission inventories - what information is taken into account? between harmonization and simplification .............................................. 25 • Emission boundaries ................................................................................................................................................................... 25 • Emission scopes .........................................................................................................................................................................26 • missions, sector boundaries and tiers �� 27 • Reporting format and outlook �� 27 • Case study - Region: Île-de-France (France) ......................................................................................................................................28 6. Gathering local data to set up scenarios on energy and climate issues .....................................................................................................30 7. How to deal with special emission sources in local CO2-balances? .......................................................................................................... 32 8. Local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials .....................................................................................................................34 • How to estimate energy efficiency and renewable potentials at a local scale? ..........................................................................................34 • Defining clear “potentials” to aid decision-making ............................................................................................................................34 • “Potential” with regards to what? ��34 • Assessment methods – how to define a local strategy (Steps 1 and 2) .................................................................................................... 35 • Implementing this strategy on a local level (step 3) .............................................................................................................................36 • Assessing and redirecting the strategy during its implementation (step 4) ..............................................................................................36 • Who is involved? ........................................................................................................................................................................36 • And in the future…? .....................................................................................................................................................................36 • The main principles of the tool .......................................................................................................................................................38 • Three methodological steps...........................................................................................................................................................38 9. Energy Sufficiency – The hidden key? ��39 10. From the concept of Energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories ..........................................................................................44 • “100%-Renewable-Regions” in Germany .........................................................................................................................................44 • Analyzing, scenario-writing and participation ...................................................................................................................................45 • Region Osnabrueck – holistic approach to energy-strategies ...............................................................................................................45 • Energy scenarios ........................................................................................................................................................................47 • The journey is the reward ��47 • Success criteria ��48 • Good governance is crucial ��49 • A process with swift, visible outcomes ............................................................................................................................................49

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