Ottogi (007310 KS ) Poised for sustainable growth

Food & beverage Three reasons why sustainable growth is possible 1) Ongoing ownership restructuring: In response to market questions over Ottogi’s Earnings Preview profit-sharing ratios, the company has been merging with its affiliates and turning April 9, 2019 some into consolidated subsidiaries. In 2017, the company merged with Ottogi Samhwa Foods and converted Ottogi SF and Ottogi Logistics Service into consolidated subsidiaries by increasing its stakes. In 2018, the company made Ottogi Oil (vegetable oil manufacturer; 2017 revenue of W76.9bn and net profit of W6.8bn; stake increased from 29% in 2017 to 52.3% in 2018) into a consolidated subsidiary and also merged (Maintain) Buy with Sangmi Foods Holdings (condiments manufacturer; 2017 revenue of W105.8bn and net profit of W4.3bn) and Poonglim P&P Holdings (packaging firm ; 2017 revenue of W57bn and net profit of W3.6bn). Target Price (12M, W) 960,000 In 2019-20, we believe Ottogi could turn its equity-method affiliates Ottogi Ramen (instant noodle maker; 2018 revenue of W645.9bn and operating profit of W29bn; Share Price (04/09/19, W) 740,000 stake increased from 24.7% at end-2017 to 27.65% at end-2018) and Choheung (food additives maker; 2018 revenue of W168. 1bn and operating profit of W11.4bn; stake Expected Return 30% increased from 33.55% at end-2017 to 44.89% at end-2018) into consolidated subsidiaries. If so, this would have several positive effects, including: 1) revenue and operating profit growth; 2) easing of market doubts over the company’s ownership structure; and 3) increased dividends. OP (19F, Wbn) 172 Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 164 2) Potential shift to profit-oriented strategy in instant noodles: Ottogi’s instant noodle market share based on value increased from 13.4% in 2012 to 23% in 2017-18. EPS Growth (19F, %) -18.3 However, market share based on volume was around 26-28% in 2017-18, suggesting the company has a lower ASP than its competitors. From 2014 to 2018, Ottogi focused Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -13.7 on gaining share through new product releases and aggressive pricing. In 2019-20, we P/E (19F, x) 19.7 think the company, facing a lack of new product ideas and consumer fatigue with new Market P/E (19F, x) 11.6 products, may shift its focus from market share to profitability (2018 instant noodle OP KOSPI 2,213.56 margin was 4.6%).

Market Cap (Wbn) 2,668 3) Pricing power: Ottogi has a robust sales force, diversified distribution channels, and a dominant market position in areas like curry, ketchup, mayonnaise, “three-minute ” Shares Outstanding (mn) 4 series, retort food, and HMR, which allows the company to pass on higher raw material Free Float (%) 34.0 prices (soybean, raw sugar, flour, etc.) and SG&A expenses (labor, logistics, etc.) to Foreign Ownership (%) 17.2 consumers. The price of Jin Ramen has not been raised since 2008, and its actual price is around 60-80% of Shin Ramen’s. If raw material prices rise, we think the company Beta (12M) 0.03 will be able to reflect the increase in its product prices. 52-Week Low 653,000 52-Week High 890,000 1Q19 preview: Robust earnings expected For 1Q19, we forecast Ottogi to post an 8.9% YoY increase in revenue and a 13.8% YoY (%) 1M 6M 12M gain in operating profit, supported by: 1) stronger sales of noodles (instant noodles, Absolute -2.8 5.4 -4.4 starch noodles, etc.), rice (cooked rice, pre-washed rice, etc.), and condiments (ketchup, Relative -6.1 7.3 5.6 mayonnaise, etc.); 2) stable raw material prices; 3) price hikes in processed food; and 4) the merger/consolidation of three subsidiaries.

130 Ottogi KOSPI 120 Maintain Buy and TP of W960,000 110 We believe that Ottogi’s pricing power, ability to weather challenges, robust 100 distribution channels, strong sales force, cost competitiveness, market dominance, and 90 sound balance sheet make it well-positioned for sustainable growth, which we view as the most important factor when it comes to F&B stocks. Once its ownership 80 restructuring is complete, the company could also increase its dividends. We 70 3.18 7.18 11.18 3.19 recommend a buy-and-hold strategy over the long term.

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd.

[ F&B ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 2,011 2,126 2,247 2,419 2,512 2,623 Woon -mok Baek +822 -3774 -1679 OP (Wbn) 143 146 152 172 187 202 [email protected] OP margin (%) 7.1 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7

NP (Wbn) 138 131 160 135 145 160 EPS (W) 39,977 38,161 45,925 37,517 40,198 44,372 ROE (%) 13.9 12.3 13.9 10.7 10.5 10.6

P/E (x) 16.6 21.1 15.8 19.7 18.4 16.7 P/B (x) 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

April 9, 2019 Ottogi

Table 1. 1Q19 preview (Wbn, %) 1Q19F Growth 1Q18 4Q18 Mirae Asset Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 577.3 564.6 628.7 605.7 8.9 11.4 Operating profit 38.5 34.3 43.9 41.9 13.8 28.0 Pretax profit 41.6 35.3 45.9 41.7 10.2 29.8 Net profit 30.3 17.8 34.0 39.7 12.0 90.5 OP margin 6.7 6.1 7.0 6.9 - - Net margin 5.3 3.2 5.4 6.6 - - Source: Company data, Quantiwise, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 18 19F 17 18 19F

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1QF 2QF 3QF 4QF Annual Annual Annual Revenue 577 525 580 565 629 571 634 584 2,126 2,247 2,419 Operating profit 39 39 40 34 44 45 48 35 146 152 172 Pretax profit 42 46 79 35 46 47 51 37 180 202 182 Net profit 30 33 79 18 34 35 38 28 131 160 135 OP margin 6.7 7.3 7.0 6.1 7.0 7.9 7.6 6.0 6.9 6.8 7.1 Net margin 5.3 6.3 13.6 3.2 5.4 6.2 6.0 4.8 6.2 7.1 5.6 Revenue growth 8.5 2.3 2.7 9.3 8.9 8.8 9.4 3.5 5.7 5.7 7.6 OP growth 28.5 -7.2 -9.0 13.6 13.8 17.3 19.4 2.6 2.5 3.9 13.7 Pretax profit growth 1.0 0.6 25.3 16.6 10.2 2.4 -34.8 5.9 -1.7 12.0 -9.9 Net profit growth -6.4 -7.2 68.3 8.4 12.0 6.3 -51.5 56.7 -4.5 21.8 -15.4 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 3. 2019-20 earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F Revenue 2,339 2,505 2,419 2,512 3.4 0.3 Merger/consolidation of three Operating profit 160 182 172 187 8.1 2.6 subsidiaries Pretax profit 179 192 182 198 1.7 3.2 Stable raw material prices Net profit 133 140 135 145 1.7 3.5 OP margin 6.8 7.3 7.1 7.4 - - Net margin 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 - - Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Figure 1. Share price performance of major processed food Figure 2. P/E of major processed food companies companies

(18.1=100) (x) 170 Ottogi Dongwon F&B 50 19F 20F CJCJ Nestle Haitian-A 150 40

130 30

110 20 오뚜기 90 10

70 0 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.10 19.1 19.4 Ottogi Donwon F&B CJCJ NESTLE Haitian-A

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 April 9, 2019 Ottogi

Figure 3. Market share (by value) of 3 domestic ramen Figure 4. Domestic ramen CPI trend companies

(%) (%) (15=100) (%) 70 Nongshim (L) Ottogi (R) Samyang Foods (R) 30 110 Ramen CPI (L) YoY (R) 16

100 65 25 12

90 60 20 8 80 55 15 4 70

0 50 10 60

45 5 50 -4 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Source: aT FIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 6. Price difference between Shin Ramyun and Jin Figure 5. Domestic major ramen prices Ramen

(W/unit) (W/unit) (W/unit) 900 Nongshim Shin Ramyun 900 Shin Ramyun-Jin Ramen (R) 120 Ottogi Jin Ramen Nongshim Shin Ramyun (L) Samyang Foods Samyang Ramen Ottogi Jin Ramen (L) 800 800 90

700 700 60

600 600 30

500 500 0

400 400 -30 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

Source: Company data , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 8. International prices of the Ottogi’s key raw Figure 7. Ottogi Ramen’s revenue and OPM materials

(Wbn) (%) (17.1=100) 700 Ottogi Ramen revenue (L) 6 150 Soybeans Palm oil Raw sugar Tuna OPM (R) 600 5 125 500 4 400 3 100 300 2 200 75

100 1

0 0 50 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1

Source: Company data , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Thomson Reuters, KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 April 9, 2019 Ottogi

Ottogi (007310 KS/Buy/TP: W960,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue 2,247 2,419 2,512 2,623 Current Assets 823 928 1,041 1,172 Cost of Sales 1,848 1,981 2,050 2,134 Cash and Cash Equivalents 140 221 305 404 Gross Profit 399 438 462 489 AR & Other Receivables 189 195 203 212 SG&A Expenses 247 266 275 286 Inventories 185 191 199 208 Operating Profit (Adj) 152 172 187 202 Other Current Assets 309 321 334 348 Operating Profit 152 172 187 202 Non-Current Assets 1,241 1,259 1,277 1,299 Non-Operating Profit 50 10 11 12 Investments in Associates 165 171 178 186 Net Financial Income 1 -1 0 3 Property, Plant and Equipment 1,007 1,022 1,036 1,052 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 15 11 11 11 Intangible Assets 53 50 47 44 Pretax Profit 202 182 198 214 Total Assets 2,063 2,187 2,318 2,471 Income Tax 41 45 53 53 Current Liabilities 522 538 554 568 Profit from Continuing Operations 161 136 146 161 AP & Other Payables 293 303 316 329 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 137 140 140 135 Net Profit 161 136 146 161 Other Current Liabilities 92 95 98 104 Controlling Interests 160 135 145 160 Non-Current Liabilities 266 256 246 253 Non-Controlling Interests 1 1 1 1 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 134 119 104 104 Total Comprehensive Profit 139 142 152 161 Other Non-Current Liabilities 132 137 142 149 Controlling Interests 140 137 146 155 Total Liabilities 788 794 801 820 Non-Controlling Interests 0 5 6 6 Controlling Interests 1,208 1,324 1,447 1,581 EBITDA 212 246 261 276 Capital Stock 18 18 18 18 FCF (Free Cash Flow) -4 106 113 121 Capital Surplus 132 132 132 132 EBITDA Margin (%) 9.4 10.2 10.4 10.5 Retained Earnings 1,260 1,370 1,488 1,621 Operating Profit Margin (%) 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 Non-Controlling Interests 68 69 70 70 Net Profit Margin (%) 7.1 5.6 5.8 6.1 Stockholders' Equity 1,276 1,393 1,517 1,651

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Cash Flows from Op Activities 197 191 198 209 P/E (x) 15.8 19.7 18.4 16.7 Net Profit 161 136 146 161 P/CF (x) 11.2 11.0 10.4 9.9 Non-Cash Income and Expense 65 106 111 109 P/B (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Depreciation 58 70 71 72 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 11.3 10.3 9.3 Amortization 2 4 3 2 EPS (W) 45,925 37,517 40,198 44,372 Others 5 32 37 35 CFPS (W) 64,740 67,142 71,325 74,894 Chg in Working Capital 18 -6 -7 -8 BPS (W) 394,937 427,061 461,395 498,239 Chg in AR & Other Receivables 32 -6 -8 -9 DPS (W) 7,500 8,000 8,000 8,000 Chg in Inventories -1 -6 -8 -9 Payout ratio (%) 15.8 19.9 18.6 16.9 Chg in AP & Other Payables 3 8 10 11 Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Income Tax Paid -47 -45 -53 -53 Revenue Growth (%) 5.7 7.7 3.8 4.4 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -272 -69 -68 -64 EBITDA Growth (%) 9.3 16.0 6.1 5.7 Chg in PP&E -182 -85 -85 -88 Operating Profit Growth (%) 4.1 13.2 8.7 8.0 Chg in Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0 EPS Growth (%) 20.3 -18.3 7.1 10.4 Chg in Financial Assets -6 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.2 Others -84 16 17 24 Inventory Turnover (x) 13.4 12.9 12.9 12.9 Cash Flows from Fin Activities 70 -45 -49 -39 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.4 Chg in Financial Liabilities 151 -12 -15 -5 ROA (%) 8.5 6.4 6.5 6.7 Chg in Equity 122 0 0 0 ROE (%) 13.9 10.7 10.5 10.6 Dividends Paid -24 -25 -27 -27 ROIC (%) 10.1 9.6 10.1 11.0 Others -179 -8 -7 -7 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 61.8 57.0 52.8 49.7 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 3 81 84 99 Current Ratio (%) 157.7 172.4 187.7 206.5 Beginning Balance 136 140 221 305 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) 10.3 2.7 -4.0 -10.0 Ending Balance 140 221 305 404 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 33.2 24.2 27.6 31.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 April 9, 2019 Ottogi

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) Ottogi Ottogi (007310) 11/29/2018 Buy 960,000 1,200,000 07/19/2018 Buy 1,050,000 1,000,000 05/25/2018 After 1yr 800,000 05/25/2017 Buy 1,000,000 12/05/2016 Buy 880,000 600,000 400,000 200,000

0 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 83.52% 8.24% 8.24% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 82.61% 4.35% 13.04% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2019)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or m ore of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the . Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the . In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 April 9, 2019 Ottogi

situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: Mirae Asset Daewoo is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance hereof represent and warrant that they are a major U.S. institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S., subject to the terms hereof, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor. Under no circumstances should any recipient of this research report effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments through Mirae Asset Daewoo. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Limited, which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 April 9, 2019 Ottogi

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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7