Ottogi (007310 KS ) Share price to eventually reflect strong sales capabilities

Food & beverage Steady earnings outlook for 2017 For 2017, we expect Ottogi to report a 3.2% YoY increase in revenue and 6.1% YoY Company Update rise in operating profit (OP margin: 7.3%). We expect steady earnings growth to be March 17, 2017 driven by: 1) an increase in ramen market share; 2) brisk sales of new products in the frozen food and home meal replacement (HMR) segments; 3) likely price increases for key products; and 4) tight cost management (e.g., more efficient processing, enhanced sourcing, and improved manufacturing). (Maintain) Buy Three investment points Target Price (12M, W) 880,000 1) Ramen market share gains: Ottogi’s ramen mar ket share rose from 18.3% in 2014 to 20.5% in 2015 and 23.2% in 2016, thanks to a two-pronged strategy of Share Price (03/17/17, W) 700,000 focusing on price competitiveness in the low-end segment (e.g., Jin Ramen) and enhancing flavors in the premium segment (Jin Jjambbong). Unlike Nongsh im, Expected Return 26% Ottogi has yet to raise ramen prices. Accordingly, in 2017, we expect Ottogi to increase its market share to 26% (based on product weight). We believe that Ottogi will continue its marketing push until it achieves a market share of 30%. Given that OP (17F, Wbn) 151 low pricing alone is not sufficient to secure a bigger piece of the pie, we expect the Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 151 company to expand its product lineup going forward.

EPS Growth (17F, %) -8.7 2) Likely price hikes for key products: We believe that price increases are justifiable Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 17.8 for cooking oil, canned tuna, ram en, and mayonnaise. In the cooking oil segment, P/E (17F, x) 19.2 Ottogi has already raised B2B prices by 6-7%, reflecting higher soybean prices. In Market P/E (17F, x) 9.9 the canned tuna market, Dongwon F&B, the market leader, raised prices by an KOSPI 2,164.58 average of 5.1% in February—and we expect Ottogi (market share: 12.5%) to follow Market Cap (Wbn) 2,408 suit in 1H17. In the ramen segment, Ottogi’s focus on market share gains makes hikes unlikely in the near term; however, we believe that it is only a matter of time Shares Outstanding (mn) 3 before prices are raised. Meanwhile, considering the increa se in egg prices, we Free Float (%) 35.4 believe that the company will be able to raise mayonnaise prices. Foreign Ownership (%) 17.1 Beta (12M) 0.51 3) Expected increase in HMR revenue: Ottogi (market share: 55%) has released four 52-Week Low 615,000 kinds of frozen pizza, driving the expansion of the domestic frozen pizza market 52-Week High 1,019,000 (W5bn in 2015 ‰ W40bn in 2017F). The company has also emerged as the second- largest player (market share: 20%) in the frozen rice-product market (W32bn in (%) 1M 6M 12M 2015 ‰ W50bn in 2016 ‰ W70bn in 2017F) by releasing 11 variants, including fried Absolute -5.4 2.5 -31.3 rice and rice with toppings/stew. Relative -9.1 -5.3 -36.9 Given the strong growth potential of the ready-to-eat rice market, we project that 130 Ottogi KOSPI Ottogi (market share: 33%; no. 2 player) will try to enhance its product lineup by 110 launching new products, such as cup rice and lunch boxes. We expect Ottogi to

90 establish strong presences in the HMR and ready-to-eat rice markets, thanks to favorable externalities (e.g., rapid growth of convenience stores, rise of single- 70 person households), as well as its competitive products and sales capabilities.

50 3.16 7.16 11.16 3.17

FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Revenue (Wbn) 1,782 1,883 2,011 2,076 2,156 2,232

[F&B/Tobacco ] OP (Wbn) 116 133 143 151 160 170 OP margin (%) 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 Woon -mok Baek NP (Wbn) 94 104 138 126 137 144 +822 -3774 -1679 [email protected] EPS (W) 27,258 30,365 39,977 36,507 39,764 41,764 ROE (%) 12.1 11.9 13.9 11.5 11.3 10.8 Susie Hong P/E (x) 17.8 40.3 16.6 19.2 17.6 16.8 +822 -3774 -1853 P/B (x) 2.0 4.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 [email protected] Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.

March 17, 2017 Ottogi

Maintain Buy and TP of W880,000 We expect Ottogi to continue to display steady earnings growth, driven by well-performing new products, likely price increases, and strong sales capabilities. Given the company’s long- term growth potential, OP margin, and ROE, we think the company deserves an over-30% premium to the F&B sector’s average 2017-2018F P/E multiple (17-18x). We think the current price level offers a good entry point.

Table 1. 1Q17 preview (Wbn,%) 1Q17F Growth 1Q16 4Q16 Mirae Asset Daewoo Consensus YoY QoQ Revenue 515.6 490.5 527.0 518.1 2.2 7.4 Operating profit 35.6 21.2 37.1 38.5 4.2 75.1 Pretax profit 50.7 39.6 43.9 43.9 -13.5 10.7 Net profit 49.0 27.2 32.7 33.3 -33.2 20.2 OP margin 6.9 4.3 7.0 7.4 - - Net margin 9.5 5.5 6.2 6.4 - - Note: W25bn in one-off gains (refund of penalties) in 1Q16, Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 16 17F 15 16 17F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1QF 2QF 3QF 4QF Annual Annual Annual Revenue 516 488 516 491 527 505 539 505 1,883 2,011 2,076 Operating profit 36 40 45 21 37 42 48 24 133 143 151 Pretax profit 51 45 48 40 44 46 51 28 143 183 168 Net profit 49 26 36 27 33 34 38 21 104 138 126 OP margin 6.9 8.3 8.8 4.3 7.0 8.4 8.9 4.8 7.1 7.1 7.3 Net margin 9.5 5.3 6.9 5.5 6.2 6.8 7.0 4.2 5.5 6.8 6.1 Revenue growth 11.0 7.1 2.6 6.8 2.2 3.4 4.4 2.9 5.7 6.8 3.2 OP growth -8.5 9.0 15.1 17.3 4.2 4.2 5.9 13.6 15.1 6.8 6.1 Pretax profit growth 17.3 9.9 7.7 181.6 -13.5 2.0 5.1 -29.1 14.2 28.4 -8.2 Net profit growth 49.0 -14.6 8.8 210.2 -33.2 32.7 6.0 -23.0 11.4 31.7 -8.7 Notes: Around W40bn of one-off gains in 2016 (W25bn in 1Q; W15bn in 4Q) Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 3. 2017-18 earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F Revenue 2,073 2,154 2,076 2,156 0.1 0.1 Operating profit 151 159 151 160 0.1 0.9 Pretax profit 167 182 168 184 1.1 1.2 Net profit 122 132 126 137 2.6 3.6 OP margin 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 - - Net margin 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.3 - - Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 March 17, 2017 Ottogi

Figure 1. OP margin comparison of major processed-food companies Figure 2. PER comparison of major processed-food companies

(%) (%) 25 8 16 17F 16 17F 7 20 6

5 15

4 10 3

2 5

1 0 0 Ottogi Daesang Dongwon Lotte Foods CJCJ Pulmuone Ottogi Pulmuone Dongwon F&B Daesang Lotte Foods CJCJ F&B

Source: Company data, Wisefn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Wisefn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 3. Ramen shipment growth Figure 4. Ottogi’s ramen market share (based on product weight)

('000 tonne) Ramen shipments (L) (%) (%) 50 YoY (R) 20 30 Market share (based on weight)

45 10 25

40 0 20

35 -10 15

30 -20 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 13.12 14.6 14.12 15.6 15.12 16.6 16.12

Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Ottogi, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 6. Ottogi ’s curry and ready -to -eat rice market share Figure 5. Retort product shipment growth (based on product weight )

('000 tonne) (%) (%) (%) 12 Retort food shipments (L) 80 90 Curry (L) 40 YoY (R) RTE rice (R) 60 10 87 35

40 8 84 30 20 6 81 25 0

4 78 20 -20

2 -40 75 15 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 13.12 14.6 14.12 15.6 15.12 16.6 16.12

Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Ottogi, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 March 17, 2017 Ottogi

Figure 8. Global soybean (raw material) price and edible oil Figure 7. Tuna price and canned fish CPI PPI (B2B products)

(15=100) (US$/tonne) (US$/lb) (10=100) 140 Canned fish CPI (L) 2500 20 Soybean price (L) 125 Tuna price (R) Cooking oil PPI (R) 18 120 120 2000 16 115 100 1500 14 110 12 105 80 1000 10 100 8 60 500 6 95

40 0 4 90 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1

Note: Dongwon F&B raised canned tuna prices by an avg. of 5.1% in February 2017, Note: Major companies have raised B2B cooking oil prices by 6-7%, reflecting higher tuna price reflecting higher soybean prices Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: KOSIS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 March 17, 2017 Ottogi

Ottogi (007310 KS/Buy/TP: W880,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F (Wbn) 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Revenue 2,011 2,076 2,156 2,232 Current Assets 641 747 860 1,018 Cost of Sales 1,524 1,566 1,624 1,679 Cash and Cash Equivalents 145 237 329 469 Gross Profit 487 510 532 553 AR & Other Receivables 140 144 150 155 SG&A Expenses 344 358 372 383 Inventories 155 159 166 171 Operating Profit (Adj) 143 151 160 170 Other Current Assets 201 207 215 223 Operating Profit 143 151 160 170 Non-Current Assets 952 967 993 961 Non-Operating Profit 40 17 24 23 Investments in Associates 233 240 250 259 Net Financial Income 1 2 4 5 Property, Plant and Equipment 653 663 678 638 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 17 16 14 14 Intangible Assets 22 21 20 19 Pretax Profit 183 168 184 193 Total Assets 1,593 1,714 1,852 1,979 Income Tax 45 42 47 49 Current Liabilities 376 371 384 392 Profit from Continuing Operations 138 126 137 144 AP & Other Payables 247 254 265 274 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 50 35 35 30 Net Profit 138 126 137 144 Other Current Liabilities 79 82 84 88 Controlling Interests 138 126 137 144 Non-Current Liabilities 181 184 188 187 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 86 86 86 81 Total Comprehensive Profit 112 142 143 144 Other Non-Current Liabilities 95 98 102 106 Controlling Interests 111 134 135 136 Total Liabilities 558 555 573 578 Non-Controlling Interests 0 8 8 8 Controlling Interests 1,029 1,154 1,273 1,394 EBITDA 185 195 206 211 Capital Stock 17 17 17 17 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 65 118 122 184 Capital Surplus 10 10 10 10 EBITDA Margin (%) 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.5 Retained Earnings 972 1,081 1,194 1,315 Operating Profit Margin (%) 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 Non-Controlling Interests 6 6 7 7 Net Profit Margin (%) 6.9 6.1 6.4 6.5 Stockholders' Equity 1,035 1,160 1,280 1,401

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Cash Flows from Op Activities 149 170 182 184 P/E (x) 16.6 19.2 17.6 16.8 Net Profit 138 126 137 144 P/CF (x) 11.1 11.5 10.8 10.5 Non-Cash Income and Expense 67 83 87 85 P/B (x) 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 Depreciation 41 43 44 40 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 10.8 9.7 8.7 Amortization 1 1 1 1 EPS (W) 39,977 36,507 39,764 41,764 Others 25 39 42 44 CFPS (W) 59,714 60,774 65,095 66,645 Chg in Working Capital -24 3 5 4 BPS (W) 303,907 339,960 374,811 409,919 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -20 -4 -6 -5 DPS (W) 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 Chg in Inventories -14 -4 -7 -6 Payout ratio (%) 16.6 18.2 16.7 15.9 Chg in AP & Other Payables 25 6 9 8 Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Income Tax Paid -33 -42 -47 -49 Revenue Growth (%) 6.8 3.2 3.9 3.5 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -133 -56 -65 0 EBITDA Growth (%) 9.5 5.4 5.6 2.4 Chg in PP&E -63 -52 -60 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 7.5 5.6 6.0 6.3 Chg in Intangible Assets -5 0 0 0 EPS Growth (%) 31.7 -8.7 8.9 5.0 Chg in Financial Assets -69 -6 -9 -8 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 15.5 14.7 14.7 14.7 Others 4 2 4 8 Inventory Turnover (x) 13.6 13.2 13.3 13.2 Cash Flows from Fin Activities -40 -36 -26 -36 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.4 Chg in Financial Liabilities -7 -15 0 -10 ROA (%) 9.0 7.6 7.7 7.5 Chg in Equity 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) 13.9 11.5 11.3 10.8 Dividends Paid -18 -18 -23 -23 ROIC (%) 16.6 17.0 18.2 19.6 Others -15 -3 -3 -3 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 53.9 47.8 44.7 41.3 Increase (Decrease) in Cash -25 92 92 140 Current Ratio (%) 170.4 201.6 223.7 260.1 Beginning Balance 170 145 237 329 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -19.5 -27.1 -32.3 -40.8 Ending Balance 145 237 329 469 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 43.7 49.4 57.5 63.5 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 March 17, 2017 Ottogi

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) Ottogi Ottogi(007310) 12/05/2016 Buy 880,000 1,500,000 06/01/2016 Buy 1,200,000 11/30/2015 Buy 1,350,000 1,000,000 No Coverage

500,000

0 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold ( ●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell 75.13% 13.99% 10.88% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2016)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the . Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the . In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 March 17, 2017 Ottogi

the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7 March 17, 2017 Ottogi

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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8