Ottogi (007310 KS) Poised for steady growth

Food & beverage 4Q15 preview: Steady earnings improvement For 4Q15, we forecast Ottogi’s revenue and operating profit to grow 5.8% and 8.5% Company Report YoY, respectively (operating profit of W23.5bn). For the full year, we estimate revenue December 8, 2015 and operating profit to expand 5.6% and 19.8% YoY, respectively. In 4Q15, earnings growth should be driven by 1) continued robust sales of key products, an d 2) lower

manufacturing costs. (Maintain) Buy HMR market to grow amid increase in single-person households

Target Price (12M, W) 1,350,000 We expect the home meal replacement (HMR) market to rapidly grow on the back of an increasing number of single-person households. Ottogi has many competitive products Share Price (12/08/15, W) 1,043,000 in the ready-to-heat (RTH) and ready-to-cook (RTC) categories.

Ottogi manufactures and sells HMR products under its own brand name. We believe t he Expected Return 29% company’s long-standing experience and expertise in developing HMR products (e.g., three-minute instant food and frozen food) make it well positioned to create new OP (15F, Wbn) 139 products suited to changing market trends. As for private labels, Ottogi is unlikely to Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 138 contract manufacture HMR products for retailers (excluding a few items), unless it can secure decent margins. EPS Growth (15F, %) 18.8 Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 22.7 Higher ramen ASP and continuous cost improvements P/E (15F, x) 32.2 Ottogi increased its domestic ramen market share to 20% in 3Q15 (19.5% in July, 20% Market P/E (15F, x) 11.2 in August, and 20.3% in September) on the back of aggressive marketing, solidifying its KOSPI 1,949.04 no. 2 position. For 2016, the company is aiming to expand its market share to the mid- Market Cap (Wbn) 3,588 20% level. We think the company will continue to focus on the low-end segment (Jin Shares Outstanding (mn) 3 Ramen), but given the limitations of a low-end market strategy, the company could also Free Float (%) 35.6 release premium products in the W1,300-1,500 price range. This should lead to higher Foreign Ownership (%) 16.5 ASP, which, coupled with stabilizing raw material prices and market share expansion, Beta (12M) 1.42 should drive strong profit gains. 52-Week Low 472,000 52-Week High 1,286,000 One of Ottogi’s biggest strengths is its strong cost discipline. In particular, t he company’s raw materials processing efficiency and sourcing capabilities (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M (bulk/centralized purchases) make it less vulnerable to changes in raw material prices. Absolute 3.3 52.9 106.9 Prices of most raw materials (60% imported; 40% domestically sourced) have been Relative 8.1 62.0 110.1 stabilizing (tuna prices have plummeted), positively contributing to profits. Nevertheless, the company is making continued efforts to reduce manufacturing costs 280 Ottogi KOSPI in order to minimize its exposure to fluctuations in raw material prices. 230

180 Maintain Buy and TP of W1,350,000

130 Ottogi boasts strong sales capabilities and has few risks related to affiliates (which are all making profits). We believe the company will steadily grow on the back of the HMR 80 12.14 4.15 8.15 12.15 market. In our view, the stock offers a good long-term investment opportunity.

Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 1,687 1,728 1,782 1,881 1,971 2,068 [F&B/Tobacco] OP (Wbn) 109 105 116 139 152 169

Woon-mok Baek OP margin (%) 6.5 6.1 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.2 +822-768-4158 NP (Wbn) 75 91 94 111 120 134 [email protected] EPS (W) 21,725 26,557 27,258 32,387 34,937 39,091 ROE (%) 12.1 13.2 12.1 12.8 12.4 12.4

P/E (x) 10.1 15.0 17.8 32.2 29.9 26.7 P/B (x) 1.1 1.8 2.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including thet he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.

December 8, 2015 Ottogi

Table 111.1. 4Q15 preview (Wbn, %) 4Q15F Growth 4Q144Q144Q14 3Q153Q153Q15 KDBKDBKDB Daewoo Consensus YoYYoYYoY QoQQoQQoQ Revenue 432.3 503.5 457.3 453.1 5.8 -9.2 Operating profit 21.6 39.4 23.5 23.8 8.5 -40.4 Net profit 17.8 44.7 21.2 25.1 19.6 -52.5 OP margin 13.5 32.7 15.7 18.3 16.6 -51.9 Net margin 5.0 7.8 5.1 5.3 - - Revenue growth 3.1 6.5 3.4 4.0 - - Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates

Table 222.2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 2020201520 151515 20202016F20 16F16F16F 2020201420 141414 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F

1Q1Q1Q 2Q2Q2Q 3Q3Q3Q 4QF4QF4QF 1Q1Q1QF1Q FFF 2Q2Q2QF2Q FFF 3Q3Q3QF3Q FFF 4Q4Q4QF4Q FFF Annual Annual Annual Revenue 465 456 504 457 490 474 528 479 1,782 1,881 1,971 Operating profit 39 37 39 23 43 40 43 26 116 139 152 Net profit 43 41 45 21 47 43 48 25 125 150 163 OP margin 33 30 33 16 35 32 35 18 94 111 120 Net margin 8.4 8.1 7.8 5.1 8.9 8.4 8.2 5.3 6.5 7.4 7.7 Revenue growth 7.1 6.6 6.5 3.4 7.1 6.7 6.7 3.9 5.3 5.9 6.1 Revenue growth 2.4 5.5 8.6 5.8 5.4 4.1 4.9 4.7 3.1 5.6 4.8 OP growth 11.7 29.5 28.0 8.5 11.6 6.8 9.6 9.0 10.3 19.8 9.3 Pretax profit growth 16.6 26.6 17.7 19.6 9.2 5.8 7.0 18.5 -0.5 19.9 8.9 Net profit growth 18.6 24.1 15.6 16.6 5.6 5.6 7.6 17.5 2.6 18.8 7.9 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates

Table 333.3. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. NotesNotesNotes 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F Revenue 1,881 1,960 1,881 1,971 0.0 0.6 - Increase in HMR product sales Operating profit 139 147 139 152 0.0 3.2 - Lower production costs Net profit 149 156 150 163 0.9 4.7 OP margin 110 115 111 120 0.9 4.5 Net margin 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.7 - - Revenue growth 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 - - Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates

Figure 111.1. Domestic rretortetort product shipment growth Figure 222.2. Domestic rramenamen shipment growth

('000 tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) ('000tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) 10 YoY (R) 80 50 YoY (R) 20

60 8 45 10 40

6 20 40 0

0 4 35 -10 -20

2 -40 30 -20 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research

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December 8, 2015 Ottogi

Figure 333.3. Domestic kketchupetchup shipment growth Figure 444.4. Domestic mmayonnaiseayonnaise shipment growth

('000 tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) ('000 tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) 6 YoY (R) 40 8 YoY (R) 40

5 20 20 6

4 0 0

4 3 -20 -20

2 -40 2 -40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research

Figure 555.5. Tuna price trendtrendtrend Figure 666.6. Domestic sugar CPI trendtrendtrend

(US$/tonne) Tuna price (L) (%) (10=100) Sugar CPI (L) (%) 2,500 YoY (R) 90 140 YoY (R) 40

2,000 60 30 120

1,500 30 20 100 1,000 0 10

80 500 -30 0

0 -60 60 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Dongwon Industries, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research

Figure 777.7. Global soybean price trend Figure 888.8. Global pppalmpalm oil price trendtrendtrend

(cents/lb) (%) (US$/tonne) (%) 1,800 Price (L) 60 1,400 Price (L) 80 YoY (R) YoY (R) 1,250 60 1,500 30 1,100 40

1,200 0 950 20

800 0 900 -30 650 -20

600 -60 500 -40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research

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December 8, 2015 Ottogi

Ottogi (007310 KS/Buy/TP: W1,350,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue 1,7821,7821,782 1,8811,8811,881 1,9711,9711,971 2,0682,0682,068 Current Assets 556556556 629629629 701701701 798798798 Cost of Sales 1,3661,3661,366 1,4181,4181,418 1,4791,4791,479 1,5421,5421,542 Cash and Cash Equivalents 177 228 281 357 Gross Profit 416416416 463463463 492492492 526526526 AR & Other Receivables 116 122 128 134 SG&A Expenses 300300300 325325325 340340340 356356356 Inventories 123 130 137 143 Operating Profit (Adj) 116116116 139139139 152152152 169169169 Other Current Assets 140 149 155 164 Operating Profit 116116116 139139139 152152152 169169169 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Assets 796796796 846846846 889889889 918918918 NonNonNon-Non ---OperatingOperating Profit 999 111111 111111 121212 Investments in Associates 182 193 202 212 Net Financial Income 2 2 4 5 Property, Plant and Equipment 570 611 646 665 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 7 7 9 7 Intangible Assets 18 18 17 16 Pretax Profit 125 150 163 181 Total Assets 1,3521,3521,352 1,4751,4751,475 1,5911,5911,591 1,7151,7151,715 Income Tax 31 38 43 46 Current Liabilities 372372372 424424424 428428428 438438438 Profit from Continuing Operations 94 112 121 135 AP & Other Payables 221 234 245 257 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 95 130 120 115 Net Profit 94 112 121 135 Other Current Liabilities 56 60 63 66 Controlling Interests 94 111 120 134 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Liabilities 156156156 128128128 132132132 127127127 Non-Controlling Interests 0 1 1 1 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 69 36 36 26 Total Comprehensive Profit 949494 113113113 121121121 135135135 Other Non-Current Liabilities 87 92 96 101 Controlling Interests 93 112 120 134 Total Liabilities 528528528 552552552 560560560 565565565 Non-Controlling Interests 0 1 1 1 Controlling Interests 818818818 917917917 1,0231,0231,023 1,1431,1431,143 EBITDA 147 175 192 211 Capital Stock 17 17 17 17 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 20 59 89 118 Capital Surplus 10 10 10 10 EBITDA Margin (%) 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.2 Retained Earnings 775 871 978 1,097 Operating Profit Margin (%) 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.2 NonNonNon-Non ---ControllingControlling Interests 555 666 777 777 Net Profit Margin (%) 5.3 5.9 6.1 6.5 Stockholders' Equity 823823823 923923923 1,0301,0301,030 1,1501,1501,150

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Cash Flows from Op Activities 117 135 164 178 P/E (x) 17.8 32.2 29.9 26.7 Net Profit 94 112 121 135 P/CF (x) 10.7 19.8 17.9 16.5 Non-Cash Income and Expense 63 69 80 82 P/B (x) 2.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 Depreciation 30 35 40 41 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 19.4 17.3 15.3 Amortization 1 1 1 1 EPS (W) 27,258 32,387 34,937 39,091 Others 32 33 39 40 CFPS (W) 45,568 52,639 58,261 63,266 Chg in Working Capital -13 -14 6 6 BPS (W) 240,233 269,027 300,037 334,711 Chg in AR & Other Receivables 1 -7 -6 -6 DPS (W) 4,000 4,000 4,500 4,500 Chg in Inventories -3 -7 -6 -7 Payout ratio (%) 14.4 12.1 12.6 11.2 Chg in AP & Other Payables 3 11 9 10 Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 Income Tax Paid ---26 -262626 ---32-323232 ---43-434343 ---46-464646 Revenue Growth (%) 3.1 5.6 4.8 4.9 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -152 -76 -74 -58 EBITDA Growth (%) 10.5 19.0 9.7 9.9 Chg in PP&E -91 -71 -75 -60 Operating Profit Growth (%) 10.5 19.8 9.4 11.2 Chg in Intangible Assets -1 0 0 0 EPS Growth (%) 2.6 18.8 7.9 11.9 Chg in Financial Assets -47 -8 -7 -7 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 15.5 15.9 15.9 15.9 Others ---13 -131313 333 888 999 Inventory Turnover (x) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 Cash Flows from Fin Activities 34 -6 -27 -34 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 Chg in Financial Liabilities 51 3 -10 -15 ROA (%) 7.4 7.9 7.9 8.2 Chg in Equity 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) 12.1 12.8 12.4 12.4 Dividends Paid -12 -11 -14 -15 ROIC (%) 16.1 17.5 17.9 19.4 Others ---5 -555 222 ---3-333 ---4-444 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 64.2 59.8 54.4 49.1 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 0 51 53 76 Current Ratio (%) 149.3 148.4 163.9 182.2 Beginning Balance 177 177 228 281 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -17.4 -21.7 -26.2 -32.0 Ending Balance 177177177 228228228 281281281 357357357 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 26.8 37.8 38.4 42.2 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates

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December 8, 2015 Ottogi

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 222-2---YearYear Rating and Target Price History

Company (((Code)(Code)Code)Code) DateDateDate RatingRatingRating Target Price (W) Ottogi Ottogi (007310) 11/30/2015 Buy 1,350,000 1,500,000 No Coverage

1,000,000

500,000

0 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price ( ▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold ( ●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution BuyBuyBuy Trading Buy HoldHoldHold SellSellSell 72.77% 13.86% 13.37% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of September 30, 2015)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report is published by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the . Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the . If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Daewoo. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment

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December 8, 2015 Ottogi

banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

KDB Daewoo Securities International Network

Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. () Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Head Office Two International Finance Centre 320 Park Avenue 34-3 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu Suites 2005-2012 31st Floor

Seoul 150-716 8 Finance Street, Central New York, NY 10022 Korea Hong Kong, China United States Tel: 82-2-768-3026 Tel: 85-2-2845-6332 Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Tokyo Branch 41st Floor, Tower 42 Six Battery Road #11-01 7th Floor, Yusen Building 25 Old Broad St. Singapore, 049909 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku London EC2N 1HQ Tokyo 100-0005 United Kingdom Japan Tel: 44-20-7982-8000 Tel: 65-6671-9845 Tel: 81-3- 3211-5511

Beijing Representative Office Shanghai Representative Office Ho Chi Minh Representative Office 2401A, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers Room 38T31, 38F SWFC Suite 2103, Saigon Trade Center B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue 100 Century Avenue 37 Ton Duc Thang St,

Chaoyang District, Beijing 100022 Pudong New Area, Shanghai 200120 Dist. 1, Ho Chi Minh City, China China Vietnam Tel: 86-10-6567-9299 Tel: 86-21-5013-6392 Tel: 84-8-3910-6000 Daewoo Investment Advisory (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Daewoo Securities (Mongolia) LLC PT. Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2401B, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers #406, Blue Sky Tower, Peace Avenue 17 Equity Tower Building Lt.50 B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, 1 Khoroo, Sukhbaatar District Sudirman Central Business District Jl.

Chaoyang District, Beijing 100022 Ulaanbaatar 14240 Jendral Sudirman Kav. 52-53, Jakarta Selatan China Mongolia Indonesia 12190 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 976-7011-0807 Tel: 62-21-515-1140

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