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Ottogi (007310 KS) Poised for Steady Growth Ottogi (007310 KS) Poised for steady growth Food & beverage 4Q15 preview: Steady earnings improvement For 4Q15, we forecast Ottogi’s revenue and operating profit to grow 5.8% and 8.5% Company Report YoY, respectively (operating profit of W23.5bn). For the full year, we estimate revenue December 8, 2015 and operating profit to expand 5.6% and 19.8% YoY, respectively. In 4Q15, earnings growth should be driven by 1) continued robust sales of key products, an d 2) lower manufacturing costs. (Maintain) Buy HMR market to grow amid increase in single-person households Target Price (12M, W) 1,350,000 We expect the home meal replacement (HMR) market to rapidly grow on the back of an increasing number of single-person households. Ottogi has many competitive products Share Price (12/08/15, W) 1,043,000 in the ready-to-heat (RTH) and ready-to-cook (RTC) categories. Ottogi manufactures and sells HMR products under its own brand name. We believe t he Expected Return 29% company’s long-standing experience and expertise in developing HMR products (e.g., three-minute instant food and frozen food) make it well positioned to create new OP (15F, Wbn) 139 products suited to changing market trends. As for private labels, Ottogi is unlikely to Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 138 contract manufacture HMR products for retailers (excluding a few items), unless it can secure decent margins. EPS Growth (15F, %) 18.8 Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 22.7 Higher ramen ASP and continuous cost improvements P/E (15F, x) 32.2 Ottogi increased its domestic ramen market share to 20% in 3Q15 (19.5% in July, 20% Market P/E (15F, x) 11.2 in August, and 20.3% in September) on the back of aggressive marketing, solidifying its KOSPI 1,949.04 no. 2 position. For 2016, the company is aiming to expand its market share to the mid- Market Cap (Wbn) 3,588 20% level. We think the company will continue to focus on the low-end segment (Jin Shares Outstanding (mn) 3 Ramen), but given the limitations of a low-end market strategy, the company could also Free Float (%) 35.6 release premium products in the W1,300-1,500 price range. This should lead to higher Foreign Ownership (%) 16.5 ASP, which, coupled with stabilizing raw material prices and market share expansion, Beta (12M) 1.42 should drive strong profit gains. 52-Week Low 472,000 52-Week High 1,286,000 One of Ottogi’s biggest strengths is its strong cost discipline. In particular, t he company’s raw materials processing efficiency and sourcing capabilities (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M (bulk/centralized purchases) make it less vulnerable to changes in raw material prices. Absolute 3.3 52.9 106.9 Prices of most raw materials (60% imported; 40% domestically sourced) have been Relative 8.1 62.0 110.1 stabilizing (tuna prices have plummeted), positively contributing to profits. Nevertheless, the company is making continued efforts to reduce manufacturing costs 280 Ottogi KOSPI in order to minimize its exposure to fluctuations in raw material prices. 230 180 Maintain Buy and TP of W1,350,000 130 Ottogi boasts strong sales capabilities and has few risks related to affiliates (which are all making profits). We believe the company will steadily grow on the back of the HMR 80 12.14 4.15 8.15 12.15 market. In our view, the stock offers a good long-term investment opportunity. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 1,687 1,728 1,782 1,881 1,971 2,068 [F&B/Tobacco] OP (Wbn) 109 105 116 139 152 169 Woon-mok Baek OP margin (%) 6.5 6.1 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.2 +822-768-4158 NP (Wbn) 75 91 94 111 120 134 [email protected] EPS (W) 21,725 26,557 27,258 32,387 34,937 39,091 ROE (%) 12.1 13.2 12.1 12.8 12.4 12.4 P/E (x) 10.1 15.0 17.8 32.2 29.9 26.7 P/B (x) 1.1 1.8 2.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including tthehe U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. December 8, 2015 Ottogi Table 111.1. 4Q15 preview (Wbn, %) 4Q15F Growth 4Q144Q144Q14 3Q153Q153Q15 KDBKDBKDB Daewoo Consensus YoYYoYYoY QoQQoQQoQ Revenue 432.3 503.5 457.3 453.1 5.8 -9.2 Operating profit 21.6 39.4 23.5 23.8 8.5 -40.4 Net profit 17.8 44.7 21.2 25.1 19.6 -52.5 OP margin 13.5 32.7 15.7 18.3 16.6 -51.9 Net margin 5.0 7.8 5.1 5.3 - - Revenue growth 3.1 6.5 3.4 4.0 - - Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 222.2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 2020201520 151515 20202016F20 16F16F16F 2020201420 141414 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 1Q1Q1Q 2Q2Q2Q 3Q3Q3Q 4QF4QF4QF 1Q1Q1QF1Q FFF 2Q2Q2QF2Q FFF 3Q3Q3QF3Q FFF 4Q4Q4QF4Q FFF Annual Annual Annual Revenue 465 456 504 457 490 474 528 479 1,782 1,881 1,971 Operating profit 39 37 39 23 43 40 43 26 116 139 152 Net profit 43 41 45 21 47 43 48 25 125 150 163 OP margin 33 30 33 16 35 32 35 18 94 111 120 Net margin 8.4 8.1 7.8 5.1 8.9 8.4 8.2 5.3 6.5 7.4 7.7 Revenue growth 7.1 6.6 6.5 3.4 7.1 6.7 6.7 3.9 5.3 5.9 6.1 Revenue growth 2.4 5.5 8.6 5.8 5.4 4.1 4.9 4.7 3.1 5.6 4.8 OP growth 11.7 29.5 28.0 8.5 11.6 6.8 9.6 9.0 10.3 19.8 9.3 Pretax profit growth 16.6 26.6 17.7 19.6 9.2 5.8 7.0 18.5 -0.5 19.9 8.9 Net profit growth 18.6 24.1 15.6 16.6 5.6 5.6 7.6 17.5 2.6 18.8 7.9 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 333.3. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. NotesNotesNotes 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F Revenue 1,881 1,960 1,881 1,971 0.0 0.6 - Increase in HMR product sales Operating profit 139 147 139 152 0.0 3.2 - Lower production costs Net profit 149 156 150 163 0.9 4.7 OP margin 110 115 111 120 0.9 4.5 Net margin 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.7 - - Revenue growth 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 - - Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Figure 111.1. Domestic rretortetort product shipment growth Figure 222.2. Domestic rramenamen shipment growth ('000 tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) ('000tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) 10 YoY (R) 80 50 YoY (R) 20 60 8 45 10 40 6 20 40 0 0 4 35 -10 -20 2 -40 30 -20 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 December 8, 2015 Ottogi Figure 333.3. Domestic kketchupetchup shipment growth Figure 444.4. Domestic mmayonnaiseayonnaise shipment growth ('000 tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) ('000 tonnes) Shipments (L) (%) 6 YoY (R) 40 8 YoY (R) 40 5 20 20 6 4 0 0 4 3 -20 -20 2 -40 2 -40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 555.5. Tuna price trendtrendtrend Figure 666.6. Domestic sugar CPI trendtrendtrend (US$/tonne) Tuna price (L) (%) (10=100) Sugar CPI (L) (%) 2,500 YoY (R) 90 140 YoY (R) 40 2,000 60 30 120 1,500 30 20 100 1,000 0 10 80 500 -30 0 0 -60 60 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Dongwon Industries, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Statistics Korea, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 777.7. Global soybean price trend Figure 888.8. Global pppalmpalm oil price trendtrendtrend (cents/lb) (%) (US$/tonne) (%) 1,800 Price (L) 60 1,400 Price (L) 80 YoY (R) YoY (R) 1,250 60 1,500 30 1,100 40 1,200 0 950 20 800 0 900 -30 650 -20 600 -60 500 -40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 December 8, 2015 Ottogi Ottogi (007310 KS/Buy/TP: W1,350,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue 1,7821,7821,782 1,8811,8811,881 1,9711,9711,971 2,0682,0682,068 Current Assets 556556556 629629629 701701701 798798798 Cost of Sales 1,3661,3661,366 1,4181,4181,418 1,4791,4791,479 1,5421,5421,542 Cash and Cash Equivalents 177 228 281 357 Gross Profit 416416416 463463463 492492492 526526526 AR & Other Receivables 116 122 128 134 SG&A Expenses 300300300 325325325 340340340 356356356 Inventories 123 130 137 143 Operating Profit (Adj) 116116116 139139139 152152152 169169169 Other Current Assets 140 149 155 164 Operating Profit 116116116 139139139 152152152 169169169 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Assets 796796796 846846846 889889889 918918918 NonNonNon-Non ---OperatingOperating Profit 999 111111 111111 121212 Investments in Associates 182 193 202 212 Net Financial Income 2 2 4 5 Property, Plant and Equipment 570 611 646 665 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 7 7 9 7 Intangible Assets 18 18 17 16 Pretax Profit 125 150 163 181 Total Assets 1,3521,3521,352 1,4751,4751,475 1,5911,5911,591 1,7151,7151,715 Income Tax 31 38 43 46 Current Liabilities 372372372 424424424 428428428 438438438 Profit from Continuing Operations 94 112 121 135 AP & Other Payables 221 234 245 257 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 95 130 120 115 Net Profit 94 112 121 135 Other Current Liabilities 56 60 63 66 Controlling Interests 94 111 120 134 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Liabilities 156156156 128128128 132132132 127127127 Non-Controlling Interests 0 1 1 1 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 69 36 36 26 Total Comprehensive
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