Fractured Mandate

Goa, with only two parliamentary constituencies, divided its favours equally between the two main alliances in the 2004 elections. Though, and as previous trends also bear out, voting in Goa has generally been along community lines, this time other factors were at play too. Both constituencies showed widely varying patterns as regards campaign practices adopted by the contesting parties and also in terms of voter preferences. In North Goa, the anti-incumbency factor did not work against the sitting BJP MP, whereas in South Goa, the Congress was assisted to power by a united NCP-Congress campaign and by the church’s appeals to the electorate.

MARIA DO CEU RODRIGUES, of the population, Christians 26.7 per cent PRABHAT KUMAR, WILLIAM JOE, and Muslims 6.84 per cent. However, in SOLANO DA SILVA the Old Conquests, the relative proportion of Christians is greater as compared to the he state of Goa has two parliamen- New Conquests. Similarly, the relative pro- tary constituencies (PC): Panaji and portion of Hindus is greater in the New TMormugao. In all, the state has a Conquests. It is found that the population total of 40 assembly constituencies (AC), of the OBCs, SCs and STs in the state is 19 in Panaji PC and 21 in PC.1 larger in areas of New Conquest. Finally, Goa attained liberation from Portuguese it is found that on economic lines, the colonial rule only in 1961 and participated regions in the New Conquests are in rel- in the national election process for the first ative terms less developed as compared to time in 1963. The consequence of Portu- the regions in the Old Conquests. This guese rule has created a distinct social sectioning is important in illustrating how profile in the state. In order to illustrate identities play an important role in voter this we have studied the state in two parts behaviour. From the very first elections in – Old Conquest and New Conquest.2 1963 voting has been on the lines of caste Further to show parliamentary consti- and religious identities.5 Bearing in mind tuency details, we have sectioned the Old the social profile of each PC, Tables 1 and 2 and New Conquests along a North-South show how the two parliamentary consti- divide3 resulting in further sectioning of tuencies have voted from 1963 to 2004. the state into four parts; North Goa Old In the 1999 parliamentary elections both Conquests, North Goa New Conquests, parliamentary seats had been won by the South Goa Old Conquests and South Goa BJP. In the run up to the 2004 elections New Conquests. This provides us with a one major development was the attempt rough demarcation of the state along com- by the INC to forge some form of alliance munity, caste and economic lines. Con- with the NCP and the regional parties – sider for example, the community compo- the United Goans Democratic Party sition of the state. State’s statistics4 indi- (UGDP) and Maharastrawadi Gomantak cate that Hindus comprise 65.8 per cent Party (MGP) in order to set up a common

5532 Economic and Political Weekly December 18, 2004 front against the BJP. Although an alliance The two PCs seem to have voted differ- the BJP candidate in North Goa, won by with the UGDP and MGP failed to ently and further the respective parties a margin of 55,706 over the NCP candidate materialise, an INC-NCP alliance6 was have won by significant margins. We have Wilfred D’Souza. The BJP victory in the forged and it was subsequently decided looked at each of the PCs separately to North can be explained by indicating a that the North Goa seat would be contested explain their respective verdicts. Panaji number of factors that worked in the party’s by the NCP candidate Wilfred D’Souza has had a Hindu candidate right from 1967. favour: and the South Goa seat be contested by Similarly Mormugao PC has always had was seen as a popular the INC candidate . In a Christian representative. This changed candidate. Our survey showed that ap- the 2004 elections, seven and nine candi- when a BJP candidate Ramakant Angle proximately 70 per cent of the people dates contested the Panaji PC and won the Mormugao seat in 1999. One must interviewed in North Goa were either fully Mormugao PC respectively. The total understand that the 1999 elections came satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the electorate in the state for this election was at the end of a decade, which was marked work done by Shripad Naik as their MP. 9,32,439. The results of the elections were: by instability, corruption and factionalism On the other hand, the North Goa Congress BJP candidate Shripad Naik retained the in the Congress Party. A 2001 good gov- alliance candidate Wilfred D’Souza, whose North Goa (Panaji PC) seat, the South Goa ernance survey7conducted in Goa, revealed popularity has been on the decline as shown (Murmugao PC) seat was won by the INC that 83 per cent of the respondents were by the results in his own assembly con- candidate Churchill Alemao, defeating either unhappy or disgusted with political stituency of Saligao, proved to be a liabil- sitting BJP MP Ramakant Angle. The defections.8 The 1999 election witnessed ity to the Congress Party. Wilfred results can be referred to in Table 1. a significantly poor voter turnout (45.09 D’Souza’s campaign began on the wrong In analysing the 2004 verdict we used per cent) and the BJP victory was largely foot because among other factors he comes both the National Election Study 2004 the result of an anti-Congress vote. One from the minority community. INC leaders (NES 2004) survey data along with the of the reasons for the BJP’s victory in 1999 like Pratap Singh Rane and from actual election results. The NES 2004 was the split in votes between the NCP and the majority community would have made sample for the state of Goa secured a fairly the INC who were then not in alliance.9 better candidates.9 Ravi Naik declined the good representation of the demographic This was also because both NCP and INC profile of the state. In terms of religious fielded Christian candidates that split the Table 3: Goa Voting Patterns along composition, our sample contained 63 per Christian votes. Also, the BJP candidate, Religious Lines cent Hindus, 26 per cent Christians and Ramakant Angle had gained some good- Congress BJP N 7 per cent Muslims. The OBC and SC/ST will from the people of South Goa by Alliance put together comprised 34 per cent of the giving assurances that he would look into Hindu 29 65 202 sample. We had a higher representation an alleged polluting project caused by the Christians 81 10 100 from South Goa than North Goa (54 per Meta Strips factory located at Sancoale in Muslims 43 43 28 cent), a slightly higher representation of South Goa. Note: All figures in percentage points. females than males (52 per cent) and on Coming to the 2004 elections, the voter Source: National Election Study – 2004, weighted the basis of the Census of India (2001) a turnout was 58.60 per cent. Shripad Naik, data set. higher percentage of respondents from rural Goa than urban Goa (78 per cent). From Table 1: Goa Elections 2004 Table 3 it can be inferred that the Goan Parliamentary Constituency BJP INC-NCP Alliance # voters voted along community lines in the 2004 Change from 1999 2004 Change from 1999 2004 elections. The survey shows that 81 Panaji 56.8 +1.9 34.8 –3.5 per cent Christians voted for the Congress Mormugao 38.3 –10.2 55.2 +8.5 alliance, while 65 per cent of Hindus voted Total 46.8 –4.7 45.8 +3.0 for the BJP. Although the survey shows Note: All figures in percentage points. that the Muslims in Goa as a whole were # INC and NCP 2004 alliance. Comparison is made between Congress alliance vote share in undecided between the two parties, the 2004 and INC and NCP vote share in 1999. sample size of Muslims in the survey was Source: CSDS Data Unit. too small to draw any robust conclusions. Table 2: Goa State Representatives to the Lok Sabha, 1963 to 2004 Tables 4 and 5 show the number of votes that accrued to either the BJP or the Year Panaji Constituency Party Mormugao Constituency Party Congress within the framework of the four 1963 Peter Alvares PSP Mukund Shinkre MGP Conquests. This raises some interesting 1967 Janardhan Shinkre MGP Erasmo de Sequeira UGP questions: Hindus are a majority in both 1971 Purushottam Kakodkar Congress(I) Erasmo de Sequeira UGP 1977 Amrut Kansar MGP Eduardo Faleiro INC the PCs but if voting was on community 1980 Sanyogita Rane MGP Eduardo Faleiro INC(U) lines how did the INC win in South Goa? 1984 Shantaram Naik INC Eduardo Faleiro INC And in North Goa New Conquests (NN) 1989 Gopal Mayenkar MGP Eduardo Faleiro INC where Christians are only 5 per cent how 1991 Harish Zantye INC Eduardo Faleiro INC 1996 Ramakant Khalap MGP Churchill Alemao UGDP did Wilfred D’Souza secure more than 1998 Ravi S Naik INC INC 20,000 votes? We found that though voting 1999 Shripad Naik BJP Ramakant Angle BJP in Goa is generally along community lines, 2004 Shripad Naik BJP Churchill Alemao INC# in this election there were many other Note: # INC and NCP alliance. factors at play that shaped the final verdict. Source: CSDS Data Unit.

Economic and Political Weekly December 18, 2004 5533 offer to contest the elections for reasons Table 4: A Comparison between 1999 and 2004 Parliamentary Elections Panaji best known to him. It could have been that Parliamentary Constituency he did not want to alienate his fellow Assembly Constituency Congress Alliance# BJP bhandari, Shripad Naik. A BJP victory in Name Change in Voter Votes Change in Vote Votes Change in Vote Turnout from 2004 Share from 2004 Share from North Goa was almost certain following 1999 to 2004 1999 to 2004 1999 to 2004 the wrong choice of candidate by the Congress alliance. North Goa New Conquest (NN) Mandrem +26 33.3 -14.3 56.1 +11.1 The Congress alliance’s lacklustre per- Pernem +30 29.1 -10.1 61.8 +8.7 formance can also be attributed to the fact Dhargalim +30 9.9 -29.8 79.2 +27.8 that the NCP candidate, Wilfred D’Souza, Bicholim +59 15.0 -20.1 74.8 -10.1 Maem +23 21.1 +2.5 67.6 -5.3 hardly carried out any campaign worth the Pale +26 18.8 -6.5 71.3 +10.7 name. A basic attempt to educate the voters Poriem +16 22.2 -15.2 64.8 +12.6 and familiarising them with the NCP Valpoi +17 28.7 -7.9 59.8 +5.9 Total +29 22.3 -13.1 67 +6.5 symbol – the ‘NCP Clock’ instead of the Religious Composition of NN: Hindus 91 per cent, Christians 5 per cent ‘INC Hand’, was not taken seriously. North Goa Old Conquest (NO) Another major let-down for the alliance Tivim +45 39.4 +1.1 53.3 -1.0 Mapusa +44 32.3 -6.6 58.1 +1.8 defeat was the INC MLAs failure to cam- Siolim +32 38.6 -2.6 53.4 -1.1 paign effectively for Wilfred D’Souza. In Calangute +27 49.4 -3.5 44.7 +1.7 Pernem, Aldona, Mayem and Poriem Saligao +42 49.2 +5.7 44.2 -7.8 Aldona +34 42.2 +3.4 51.2 -6.1 assembly segments that are represented by Panaji +30 32.9 +1.4 62.4 -3.9 Congress MLAs, the BJP candidate man- Taleigao +60 38.3 -0.6 54.4 -2.8 aged to secure more votes than the Con- Santa Cruz +55 48.6 +3.2 45.0 -3.9 Santa Andre +58 55.7 +7.2 38.5 -7.8 gress candidate: 3,747, 1,600, 4,940 and Cumbarjua +30 35.8 +2.1 55.3 -5.5 4,997 votes respectively in these segments. Total +41 42.1 +4.3 50.83 -3.3 The South Goa verdict reveals another Religious Composition of NO: Hindus 62 per cent, Christians 33 per cent interesting feature. Here the INC candi- Notes: All figures in percentage points. date Churchill Alemao won by securing # INC and NCP 2004 alliance. Comparison is made between Congress alliance vote share in 50,524 votes over the sitting BJP candi- 2004 and INC and NCP vote share in 1999. Source: Election Commission of India. date Ramakant Angle. One of the most obvious reasons for the INC-NCP alliance Table 5: A Comparison between 1999 and 2004 Parliamentary Elections victory was the formation of the alliance in Mormugao PC itself, which prevented the splitting of votes Assembly Constituency Congress Alliance# BJP as had happened in 1999. Name Change in Voter Votes Change in Vote Votes Change in Vote Another interesting reason behind the Turnout from 2004 Share from 2004 Share from victory of the Congress alliance was a 1999 to 2004 1999 to 2004 1999 to 2004 significantly higher voter turnout in South South Goa New Conquest (SN) Goa in the 2004 elections as compared to Ponda† +32 49.4 +20.5 45.7 -21.3 Priol +25 26.0 +8.1 62.0 -12.9 the 1999 elections. A closer look at Table Marcaim +15 41.3 +21.9 50.4 -24.5 5 will show that there was a higher voter Shiroda +25 54.4 +21.6 39.9 -21.5 turnout in South Goa Old Conquest, the Sanvordem +24 35.1 +5.6 54.2 -9.1 Sanguem +13 41.1 +3.6 51.1 -5.7 reason for which may lie in the role played Curchorem +28 49.1 +5.7 45.5 -6.3 by the catholic church. The church has Quepem +39 49.5 +4.2 42.4 +3.6 always exhorted people to exercise their Canacona +31 49.2 +5.8 44.6 -7.2 Poinguinim +28 42.5 +6.5 50.7 -7.1 franchise and elect responsible people. This Total +26 44.0 +10.0 48.4 -11.7 time the church questioned the BJP’s ‘India Religious Composition of SN: Hindus 78 per cent, Christians 18 per cent Shinning’ promise to Indians living below South Goa Old Conquest (SO) Mormugao +22 55.9 +16.4 38.3 -17.9 the poverty line and the BJP government’s Vasco Da Gama +26 55.9 +16.7 39.3 -18.3 commitment to social justice. A group Cortalim +55 59.3 +8.5 26.5 -15.4 called Lok Shakti,10 which emerged a few Loutolim +52 82.8 +7.7 11.3 -8.4 Benaulim +47 73.8 -10.3 21.9 +8.9 days before the election, gave a shot in the Fatorda +53 56.2 +10.1 39.9 -11.8 arm for the Congress alliance as it openly +34 42.4 +1.6 54.1 -2.2 campaigned against what they claimed to Curtorim +61 80 +1.1 16.6 -2.1 be the BJP’s corrupt and communal prac- Navelim +39 72.6 -1.5 23.4 +0.6 Velim +66 70.8 -6.4 23.2 +4.7 tices. It was also held that the vote against Cuncolim +61 66.3 +6.7 29.5 -7.1 the BJP in the South was an anti-incum- Total +45 64.7 +5.7 29.6 -7.6 bency vote against Ramakant Angle. Our Religious Composition of SO: Hindus 40 per cent, Christians 52 per cent survey shows that approximately 54 per Notes: All figures in percentage points. cent of those interviewed in south Goa † Actually NN but has been included as SN because Ponda falls within the Mormugao constituency were either fully dissatisfied or somewhat for parliamentary elections. # INC and NCP 2004 alliance. Comparison is made between Congress alliance vote share in 2004 dissatisfied with the work done by and INC and NCP vote share in 1999. Ramakant Angle as their MP. Source: Election Commission of India.

5534 Economic and Political Weekly December 18, 2004 However, the above explanations in- Congress alliance led to the BJP’s victory but not the least we would like to thank our cluding the minority factor does not alone in the North. A high voter turnout in investigators Rathisha Fernandes, Shashank explain the number of votes garnered by South Goa, the solidarity and commit- Thakur, Saontosh R Mauyra, Prabakar Padenkar, Churchill Alemao in key assembly con- ment of the Congress leaders and the Suryabhan Maurya, Balaji Madiq, Kuldeep Shinde and Kedarnath Tadkod.] stituencies in South Goa, New Conquests. role played by the church led to the BJP’s Table 5 shows that these include Ponda, defeat in the south. Goa has never had 1 The two parliamentary constituencies of Shiroda, Curchorem, Quepem and any blatant communal conflict although Panaji and Mormugao are also referred to as Canacona. One of the reasons for this whilst voting, the tendency has been to the North Goa and South Goa parliamentary swing in votes may be attributed to the vote on communal lines, but again this is constituencies respectively. solidarity of the Congress MLAs who not a cardinal rule. Clearly the Congress 2 Old Conquest and New Conquest is a terminology used by the Portuguese to worked for Alemas’s success. Particularly, victory in the south would not have designate those areas of the state that came the Congress victory in the assembly been possible if there had not been cross under their rule before the 17th Century and constituencies of Ponda and Shiroda, which voting. after the 17th century respectively, i e, the had gone to BJP in the 1999 elections, may When asked to indicate whom the Portuguese used a method of breaking up the be attributed to the work of MLAs, Ravi people would prefer as their next chief state into regions where the Portuguese rule Naik and Subhash Shirodkar. minister, 37 per cent of the respondents extended for more than 400 years, these became When the respondents were asked what maintained that they would prefer the known as Old Conquest, the regions which came under the Portuguese colonial rule for mattered most in the 2004 parliamentary present chief minister less than 200 years, became know as New elections 46 per cent indicated that it was to continue. Of the remaining, it was Conquest. the work done by the central government, found that respondents’ choices varied 3 We have used the parliamentary constituency whereas 47 per cent of the respondents with 26 per cent uncertain of their choice delimitation line to construct the North-South indicated that it was the work done by the of chief minister. Although the BJP divide of the Old and New Conquests. state government. On the NDA’s economic government remains popular, the party 4 Census of India, 2001. policies, 41 per cent stated that the still lost its Mormugao seat by a margin 5 After liberation two regional political parties emerged, the MGP (Maharashtrawadi government’s policies had benefited only of 50,000 votes. We have seen the forces Gomantak Party) and the UGP (United Goans the rich. When asked to indicate their levels that helped to determine the verdict. Party), both propagated divergent ideologies. of satisfaction with respect to certain is- Complementary to the factors already The MGP propagated the cause of merger with sues of governance in the state, the respon- stated, we can only speculate that the Maharashtra, their main argument being that dents by and large gave a good or fair verdict had also to do with the mass base unless merger with Maharashtra takes place assessment. An overwhelming majority (76 of Shripad Naik and Churchill Alemao the domination by Christians and Hindu upper castes would continue as was during the per cent) of the respondents indicated that against the elitist backgrounds of Portuguese colonial rule. They also referred the condition of roads had improved in Wilfred D’Souza and Ramakant Angle. to the land reforms that were taking place in Goa. However, 31 per cent of respondents The NES 2004 perhaps gives an insight Maharashtra and argued that the language of also indicated that the government has into the complex psyche of the Goan Goa was Marathi and Konkani was only its failed to ensure employment. These results voter who on one hand is faced between dialect. The UGP on the other hand propagated can be referred to in Table 6. On the whole, a dilemma of political alternatives and the cause that Goa represented a ‘separate the survey has shown that 56 per cent of on the other the reality of his/her own identity’; separate from Maharashtra and that EPW Konkani was the language of the state. The the respondents are either fully satisfied identity. two parties appealed to two different social or somewhat satisfied with the performance bases. The MGP’s social base therefore, largely of the Goa government. However, in South Address for correspondence: constituted of the Bahujan Samaj whereas the Goa this failed to convert into a mandate [email protected] UGP came to be identified with the Christian for the BJP. community who were opposed to the merger. Notes Many Hindu saraswat brahmins were also its Notes members. Conclusion [We would like to thank Peter de Souza for his 6 We have referred to the INC-NCP alliance as the Congress alliance. The study found that in the 2004 elec- comments and encouragement writing this article. Alito Sequeira for his help with the 7 The Survey on Good Governance was tions, factors like the popularity of Shripad datasets. Nina Caldeira for her assistance editing conducted in 2001 by Forum for Good Naik and, conversely, the unpopularity of the paper. Suhas Palshikar and Yogendra Yadav Governance – New Delhi. Wilfred D’Souza together with ineffective for the valuable discussion we had with them. 8 The period from 1989 up to 1999 saw only campaigning by the rank and file of the Edzia Carvalho for the inputs she provided. Last two assembly elections but eleven chief ministers. Table 6: People’s Assessment of Goa State Government on Important Issues 9 Our survey regarding the popularity of Congress alliance leaders indicate that 51 per Improved Same Deteriorated No N cent perceive Pratapsing Rane as being either as before Opinion good or very good as a leader, 33 per cent Law and order 45 29 12 14 388 indicated the same about Ravi Naik compared Condition of roads 75 14 3 8 388 to 27 per cent who said the same about Wilfred Medical facilities 43 31 12 15 388 D’Souza. Educational facilities 56 24 3 17 388 10 Lok Shakti is a political front comprising of Employment 26 25 34 15 388 professionals, businessmen and prominent Relations between communities 35 45 7 14 388 citizens, the conveyor of the Lok Shakti is Note: All figures in percentage points. Datta Naik a prominent saraswat leader and Source: National Election Study – 2004, weighted data set. businessman.

Economic and Political Weekly December 18, 2004 5535