Fractured Mandate

GOA Fractured Mandate Goa, with only two parliamentary constituencies, divided its favours equally between the two main alliances in the 2004 elections. Though, and as previous trends also bear out, voting in Goa has generally been along community lines, this time other factors were at play too. Both constituencies showed widely varying patterns as regards campaign practices adopted by the contesting parties and also in terms of voter preferences. In North Goa, the anti-incumbency factor did not work against the sitting BJP MP, whereas in South Goa, the Congress was assisted to power by a united NCP-Congress campaign and by the church’s appeals to the electorate. MARIA DO CEU RODRIGUES, of the population, Christians 26.7 per cent PRABHAT KUMAR, WILLIAM JOE, and Muslims 6.84 per cent. However, in SOLANO DA SILVA the Old Conquests, the relative proportion of Christians is greater as compared to the he state of Goa has two parliamen- New Conquests. Similarly, the relative pro- tary constituencies (PC): Panaji and portion of Hindus is greater in the New TMormugao. In all, the state has a Conquests. It is found that the population total of 40 assembly constituencies (AC), of the OBCs, SCs and STs in the state is 19 in Panaji PC and 21 in Mormugao PC.1 larger in areas of New Conquest. Finally, Goa attained liberation from Portuguese it is found that on economic lines, the colonial rule only in 1961 and participated regions in the New Conquests are in rel- in the national election process for the first ative terms less developed as compared to time in 1963. The consequence of Portu- the regions in the Old Conquests. This guese rule has created a distinct social sectioning is important in illustrating how profile in the state. In order to illustrate identities play an important role in voter this we have studied the state in two parts behaviour. From the very first elections in – Old Conquest and New Conquest.2 1963 voting has been on the lines of caste Further to show parliamentary consti- and religious identities.5 Bearing in mind tuency details, we have sectioned the Old the social profile of each PC, Tables 1 and 2 and New Conquests along a North-South show how the two parliamentary consti- divide3 resulting in further sectioning of tuencies have voted from 1963 to 2004. the state into four parts; North Goa Old In the 1999 parliamentary elections both Conquests, North Goa New Conquests, parliamentary seats had been won by the South Goa Old Conquests and South Goa BJP. In the run up to the 2004 elections New Conquests. This provides us with a one major development was the attempt rough demarcation of the state along com- by the INC to forge some form of alliance munity, caste and economic lines. Con- with the NCP and the regional parties – sider for example, the community compo- the United Goans Democratic Party sition of the state. State’s statistics4 indi- (UGDP) and Maharastrawadi Gomantak cate that Hindus comprise 65.8 per cent Party (MGP) in order to set up a common 5532 Economic and Political Weekly December 18, 2004 front against the BJP. Although an alliance The two PCs seem to have voted differ- the BJP candidate in North Goa, won by with the UGDP and MGP failed to ently and further the respective parties a margin of 55,706 over the NCP candidate materialise, an INC-NCP alliance6 was have won by significant margins. We have Wilfred D’Souza. The BJP victory in the forged and it was subsequently decided looked at each of the PCs separately to North can be explained by indicating a that the North Goa seat would be contested explain their respective verdicts. Panaji number of factors that worked in the party’s by the NCP candidate Wilfred D’Souza has had a Hindu candidate right from 1967. favour: and the South Goa seat be contested by Similarly Mormugao PC has always had Shripad Naik was seen as a popular the INC candidate Churchill Alemao. In a Christian representative. This changed candidate. Our survey showed that ap- the 2004 elections, seven and nine candi- when a BJP candidate Ramakant Angle proximately 70 per cent of the people dates contested the Panaji PC and won the Mormugao seat in 1999. One must interviewed in North Goa were either fully Mormugao PC respectively. The total understand that the 1999 elections came satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the electorate in the state for this election was at the end of a decade, which was marked work done by Shripad Naik as their MP. 9,32,439. The results of the elections were: by instability, corruption and factionalism On the other hand, the North Goa Congress BJP candidate Shripad Naik retained the in the Congress Party. A 2001 good gov- alliance candidate Wilfred D’Souza, whose North Goa (Panaji PC) seat, the South Goa ernance survey7conducted in Goa, revealed popularity has been on the decline as shown (Murmugao PC) seat was won by the INC that 83 per cent of the respondents were by the results in his own assembly con- candidate Churchill Alemao, defeating either unhappy or disgusted with political stituency of Saligao, proved to be a liabil- sitting BJP MP Ramakant Angle. The defections.8 The 1999 election witnessed ity to the Congress Party. Wilfred results can be referred to in Table 1. a significantly poor voter turnout (45.09 D’Souza’s campaign began on the wrong In analysing the 2004 verdict we used per cent) and the BJP victory was largely foot because among other factors he comes both the National Election Study 2004 the result of an anti-Congress vote. One from the minority community. INC leaders (NES 2004) survey data along with the of the reasons for the BJP’s victory in 1999 like Pratap Singh Rane and Ravi Naik from actual election results. The NES 2004 was the split in votes between the NCP and the majority community would have made sample for the state of Goa secured a fairly the INC who were then not in alliance.9 better candidates.9 Ravi Naik declined the good representation of the demographic This was also because both NCP and INC profile of the state. In terms of religious fielded Christian candidates that split the Table 3: Goa Voting Patterns along composition, our sample contained 63 per Christian votes. Also, the BJP candidate, Religious Lines cent Hindus, 26 per cent Christians and Ramakant Angle had gained some good- Congress BJP N 7 per cent Muslims. The OBC and SC/ST will from the people of South Goa by Alliance put together comprised 34 per cent of the giving assurances that he would look into Hindu 29 65 202 sample. We had a higher representation an alleged polluting project caused by the Christians 81 10 100 from South Goa than North Goa (54 per Meta Strips factory located at Sancoale in Muslims 43 43 28 cent), a slightly higher representation of South Goa. Note: All figures in percentage points. females than males (52 per cent) and on Coming to the 2004 elections, the voter Source: National Election Study – 2004, weighted the basis of the Census of India (2001) a turnout was 58.60 per cent. Shripad Naik, data set. higher percentage of respondents from rural Goa than urban Goa (78 per cent). From Table 1: Goa Lok Sabha Elections 2004 Table 3 it can be inferred that the Goan Parliamentary Constituency BJP INC-NCP Alliance # voters voted along community lines in the 2004 Change from 1999 2004 Change from 1999 2004 elections. The survey shows that 81 Panaji 56.8 +1.9 34.8 –3.5 per cent Christians voted for the Congress Mormugao 38.3 –10.2 55.2 +8.5 alliance, while 65 per cent of Hindus voted Total 46.8 –4.7 45.8 +3.0 for the BJP. Although the survey shows Note: All figures in percentage points. that the Muslims in Goa as a whole were # INC and NCP 2004 alliance. Comparison is made between Congress alliance vote share in undecided between the two parties, the 2004 and INC and NCP vote share in 1999. sample size of Muslims in the survey was Source: CSDS Data Unit. too small to draw any robust conclusions. Table 2: Goa State Representatives to the Lok Sabha, 1963 to 2004 Tables 4 and 5 show the number of votes that accrued to either the BJP or the Year Panaji Constituency Party Mormugao Constituency Party Congress within the framework of the four 1963 Peter Alvares PSP Mukund Shinkre MGP Conquests. This raises some interesting 1967 Janardhan Shinkre MGP Erasmo de Sequeira UGP questions: Hindus are a majority in both 1971 Purushottam Kakodkar Congress(I) Erasmo de Sequeira UGP 1977 Amrut Kansar MGP Eduardo Faleiro INC the PCs but if voting was on community 1980 Sanyogita Rane MGP Eduardo Faleiro INC(U) lines how did the INC win in South Goa? 1984 Shantaram Naik INC Eduardo Faleiro INC And in North Goa New Conquests (NN) 1989 Gopal Mayenkar MGP Eduardo Faleiro INC where Christians are only 5 per cent how 1991 Harish Zantye INC Eduardo Faleiro INC 1996 Ramakant Khalap MGP Churchill Alemao UGDP did Wilfred D’Souza secure more than 1998 Ravi S Naik INC Francisco Sardinha INC 20,000 votes? We found that though voting 1999 Shripad Naik BJP Ramakant Angle BJP in Goa is generally along community lines, 2004 Shripad Naik BJP Churchill Alemao INC# in this election there were many other Note: # INC and NCP alliance.

Load more