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Malaysia Genting Plantations PP16832/01/2013 (031128) Malaysia Company Update 6 March 2013 Buy (from Hold) Genting Plantations In Love with Iskandar Too Share price: MYR8.50 Target price: MYR10.30 (previously MYR13/sh RNAV; raise to BUY. GENP’s market cap of MYR6.4b has MYR8.00) merely priced in its growing palm oil assets. What investors over-looked is GENP’s ~6,600 acres of prime land bank worth MYR4b in Iskandar and Sepang. Investors of GENP today thus get its Iskandar landbank ONG Chee Ting, CA for free. We upgrade GENP to a BUY with a raised TP of MYR10.30 on [email protected] a higher 18x PER target on mid-FY14 earnings (+1SD of 5-year mean (603) 2297 8678 PER). Our new TP is still 20% below our estimated RNAV of MYR13. What has changed? Slightly over a year ago (Nov 2011), GENP’s Johor Premium Outlet (JPO) opened for business and quickly became a new landmark. Of greater significance is a new inter-change connecting the North-South Highway to the JPO and GENP’s remaining Stock Information ~5,550 acres of undeveloped-cum-plantation land; this has improved Description: Upstream plantation player, with small accessibility and land value. An upcoming AEON mall in Kulaijaya (by exposure to property and biotechnology. end-2013) will add credence and value. On a bigger picture, 2013 is a (Planted land in 2011 = 93,498 ha) turning point for Iskandar M’sia as investments and property demand pick up. Land prices have risen steadily but not GENP’s share price. Ticker: GENP MK Shares Issued (m): 758.8 The overlooked landbank. GENP owns ~43,000 acres of freehold Market Cap (MYR m): 6,449.4 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 0.87 plantation estates in Peninsular Malaysia since 1980s (which are still KLCI: 1,642.08 kept at historical BV of <MYR1psf). These are easily accessible along Free float (%): 25.2 the North-South Highway. The jewel among its land bank is over 7,000 Major Shareholders: % acres of land in Iskandar where the JPO is located. Another prime land Genting Bhd 53.6 is its ~1,000 acres Sepang land, located next to the Sepang F1 Circuit. EPF 15.1 KWAP 6.0 GENP’s other landbank (near Batu Pahat, Malacca, and Sg Petani in Kedah) are also ripe for development but demand is generally slow. Ripe for a re-rating, BUY. Valuing its Iskandar and Sepang land at MYR14psf, we derive a value of MYR4b for these land. Combined with its upstream plantation value (MYR5.6b) and cash (MYR0.3b), GENP’s Historical Chart RNAV is c.MYR9.9b or MYR13/sh. Although property only account for less than 10% of GENP’s net profits, its Iskandar land bank and intrinsic 12.0 GENP MK Equity value should not be ignored. The twin benefits of Iskandar’s rising 10.0 appeal and our projected 9% 2012-15 CAGR in FFB output (higher than 8.0 its Malaysian peers) add to GENP’s appeal. 6.0 Genting Plantations – Summary Earnings Table Source: Maybank KE 4.0 FYE Dec (MYR m) FY11A FY12A FY13F FY14F FY15F 2.0 Revenue 1,336.5 1,233.4 1,318.9 1,449.4 1,572.0 EBITDA 615.4 419.7 508.2 591.2 650.2 0.0 Recurring Net Profit 442.0 327.1 398.8 469.4 520.7 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Recurring Basic EPS (sen) 58.3 43.1 52.6 61.9 68.6 EPS growth (%) 36.1 (26.0) 21.9 17.7 10.9 DPS (sen) 12.2 9.4 11.0 13.0 14.4 Performance: BVPS (MYR) 4.26 4.51 4.93 5.42 5.96 52-week High/Low MYR10.2/MYR8.12 PER 14.6 19.7 16.2 13.7 12.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 15.3 12.7 10.9 9.9 Div Yield (%) 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD P/BV(x) 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 Absolute (%) 3.3 (0.4) (9.1) (8.0) (5.6) Net Gearing (%) cash cash cash cash cash Relative (%) 2.4 (2.5) (8.4) (11.3) (2.8) ROE (%) 13.7 9.6 10.7 11.4 11.5 ROA (%) 10.8 6.9 7.5 7.9 7.8 Earnings revision (%) - - (4.4) (1.6) new Consensus Net Profit (MYR m) - - 398 456 498 SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Genting Plantations GENP’s overlooked Iskandar angle Held at historical 1980s book value. GENP first foray into plantations back to 1981 with the acquisition of some 10,000 ha of plantation land in Peninsular Malaysia. As at 31 Dec 2011, GENP has approximately 17,700 ha of plantation land scattered over Johor (Iskandar – 2,659 ha; Batu Pahat – 5,548 ha; Air Hitam – 669 ha; Tangkak – 1,801 ha), Selangor (Sepang) – 666 ha, Malacca – 794 ha, Negeri Sembilan – 2,292 ha, Perak – 1,830 ha, and Kedah – 1,459 ha. Of these, ~17,500 ha (99% of its Peninsular landbank) was acquired in 1981-83 and has been kept at historical book values at below MYR1 psf. Development potential. Most of the landbanks held by GENP in Peninsular Malaysia (11% of its 2011’s total estate size) are ripe for property development. While most of these land are easily accessible via the North-South Highway, some are located in secondary locations nearby Malacca, Sg Petani in Kedah, Batu Pahat and Tangkak (both in Johor) whereby economic and population growth are slower. Still they are prime for unlocking of value via property development albeit over an extended development period. Crème de la crème - Iskandar and Sepang land. GENP’s most bankable landbank for property development are located in Iskandar and Klang Valley, two of the fastest growth areas in Malaysia. In Iskandar, GENP has over 7,000 acres in Kulaijaya, near Iskandar’s Flagship Zone E – see Figure 1. Its property development activities in Iskandar started before year 2000 under the Genting Indahpura township. Today, its remaining Iskandar landbank stands at ~5,550 acres. In Klang Valley, GENP has another prime piece of land measuring approximately 430 acres in Sepang (next to the Sepang F1 Circuit) – see Figure 6. Fig 1: Genting Indahpura, Iskandar – sprawling over 7,000 acres in Kulaijaya (~5,500 acres remains undeveloped) Genting Indahpura/ Johor Premium Outlets at Flagship E Iskandar Malaysia • 2,217 km2 or 550,000 acres • 3 times the size of Singapore • 1.4 million population Source: Iskandar Malaysia, Maybank-KE 6 March 2013 Page 2 of 17 Genting Plantations Kulaijaya, the time is right Seeing is believing. We recently visited GENP's property development in Kulaijaya where the JPO resides. We are convinced that this development can ride well along the present demand momentum in Iskandar. GENP’s JPO project has become a new landmark among Malaysians and Singaporeans. Access to GENP's remaining ~5,550 acres of landbank in Kulaijaya has been significantly improved via a new interchange at the JPO which will be the new gateway to GENP’s remaining landbank in Kulaijaya – see Figure 2. JPO is nestled at two interchanges with easy access to Johor Bahru City Centre and M’sia- S’pore Second Link (Tuas Checkpoint) via the North-South Highway. An upcoming AEON mall (operational by end 2013) within its Kulaijaya development will significantly add credence and value to the area. Ready infrastructure adds to the appeal. Kulaijaya has the ingredients for a successful mixed development township. It has well built infrastructure with a 3-lane road access running through the township, and a good mix of schools, hospitals, vibrant shops, industrial parks, and an upcoming AEON mall (in addition to JPO) to broaden its appeal as a place to work and stay. This prime piece of land is just a 5 minutes drive to Senai airport, 30 minutes to Johor Bahru City Centre, 30 minutes to Tuas Checkpoint and 20 minutes to Nusajaya. Fig 2: Genting Indahpura, Iskandar – sprawling over 7,000 acres in Kulaijaya (~5,550 acres remains undeveloped) Senai To Kuala Lumpur International Airport Aeon Mall Industrial (U/C) Clusters (U/C) Forest Reserves Johor Premium > 7,000 Outlet acres of Kulailand To Second To JohorBahru/ Link (~35km) Causeway (~30km) Source: Google Map, Maybank-KE (area demarcated in red is the land area under Genting Plantations) 6 March 2013 Page 3 of 17 Genting Plantations The time is right and ripe. Johor property prices are going through a boom after years of disbelief that the Iskandar development, spearheaded by Khazanah, will take off in a big manner. Johor property prices has lagged Klang Valley price inflation until of late, thanks to foreign investors, especially Singaporeans. 2013 will prove to be the pivotal point. Johor offers cheaper land, labour and cost of living. The proposal to link KL CBD to Singapore via a high speed rail and Johor Baru to Singapore via a mass rapid transit would boost property prices in Johor, being a cheaper alternative to Singapore’s. Fig 3: Iskandar – Recent major land transactions Location Buyer Vendor Value Acres Value Remarks (MYR ‘m) (MYR psf) Mixed Feb 2013 Danga Bay CapitaLand- IWH 811 71 261 A 51:40:9 JV between Temasek-IWH JV CapitaLand, Iskandar Waterfront S/B, and Temasek. The man- made island project is expected to generate a GDV of MYR8.1b Jan 2013 Puteri Harbour Liberty Bridge UEML 401 44 211 The land sale is divided into two parcels: 29 acres @ MYR167psf and 14.7 acres at MYR297psf Jan 2013 Medini Sunway IIB 184 300 14 Medini-Eastern Pendas South, Mixed-D project Dec 2012 Danga Bay Country Garden IWH 900 55 376 A marina and marina club, hotel, serviced apartments, offices and commercial development with GDV of MYR10-18b Dec 2012 Medini Sunway IIB 191 366 12 Medini-Western Pendas South, Mixed-D project Dec 2012 Medini Sunway IIB 221 413 12 Pendas North-Land Oct 2012 Medini Mah Sing IIB 75 8 209 Medini North for Mixed-D Dec 2011 Medini Sunway Khazanah 745 691 25 Zone F in Medini Aug 2011 Plentong Dijaya Trident World 165 125 30 Mixed-D project Aug 2011 Plentong Dijaya Trident World 55 15 84 Mixed-D project Jan 2011 Tebrau n.a n.a 126 266 11 Source: NAPIC Dec 2010 Plentong Sunway Bukit Lenang 135 65 48 Source: NAPIC Development Dec 2010 Pulai Nusajaya UEM Land 50 6.7 170 - Consolidated SB Residential Sept 2010 Tebrau S P Setia Kelana 169 259 15 Residential development Ventures Commercial Dec 2011 Kulaijaya Aeon Genting Plant 22 18 28 Aeon Mall development in Kulaijaya Dec 2009 Kulaijaya Genting P-Simon Genting Plant 38 44 20 Johor Premium Outlet Property JV development Industrial Oct 2012 Gerbang Nusajaya Ascendas-UEML UEML 68 120 13 Options to acquire more within 2 years at MYR14.30psf Apr 2011 Tanjung Kupang Mah Sing Various 55 206 6 Identified for industrial development Source: Various, Maybank-KE 6 March 2013 Page 4 of 17 Genting Plantations Record land prices in recent months.
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