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UEM Sunrise(UEMS Company Update Malaysia 13 November 2019 Property | Real Estate UEM Sunrise (UEMS MK) Buy (Maintained) Strategic Disposal Of Mayfair Project Target Price (Return) MYR0.99 (+32%) Price: MYR(+18%0.75 Market Cap: USD822m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 1.2m/0.29m Maintain BUY, unchanged MYR0.99 TP offers 32% upside. We are Analyst positive on UEM Sunrise’s disposal of its Mayfair project at St Kilda Road in Melbourne. It is an opportunistic sale for the company as the take-up rate for Loong Kok Wen, CFA the project has not been encouraging since its launch two years ago. Apart +603 9280 8861 from relieving from the working capital and financing commitments for the [email protected] project, it will be able to book in a MYR54.3m net disposal gain upon the completion of the transaction in 4Q19. Details of the disposal. The Mayfair project, with an NLA of 16,258 sqm and 174 car park bays, was sold to ACME Co No 4 Pty Ltd (a wholly-owned subsidiary of One Investment Group Pty Ltd Australia) for a cash consideration of AUD107,088,888 (MYR304.1m). A 5% deposit will be paid Share Performance (%) within five days and the remaining 95% will be settled by 20 Dec. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute Immediate value-unlocking. The net gain of MYR54.3m is almost at 5% of 12.8 12.8 2.0 (12.8) 1.4 Relative the initial project GDV of MYR1,133m. While the net gain is below our 17.6 9.4 1.0 (13.3) 6.0 expectation, the disposal will allow UEM Sunrise to monetise the project 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.62 – 1.02 immediately. Since the launch of Mayfair, the company has yet to kick-start construction of the project, largely because of the slow demand for the UEM Sunrise Bhd (UEMS MK) properties. Recall that Mayfair was designed to be a high-end luxury Price Close residential project in St Kilda, and given the slowdown in the property market 1.2 in the region, UEM Sunrise has not been able to attract a large pool of 1.0 wealthy buyers. The latest take-up rate was only less than 50%. 0.8 0.6 Forecasts. We maintain our FY19F-21F earnings. The company’s unbilled 0.4 sales as at 2Q19 stood at MYR2.6bn. 0.2 0.0 TP remains the same. As we incorporate the net gain into our numbers, our Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-19 Apr-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Jun-19 Dec-18 Sep-19 RNAV estimate is relatively unchanged. We therefore maintain our TP of Nov-18 Aug-19 May-19 MYR0.99, based on an unchanged 65% discount to RNAV. We believe the recent news flow on the Rapid Transit System (RTS) connecting Johor Bahru Source: Bloomberg and Woodlands is favourable to UEM Sunrise, given its substantial landbank exposure to the Iskandar region. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total turnover (MYRm) 2,903 2,044 3,110 1,918 1,928 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 280 280 231 202 223 Recurring net profit growth (%) 90.1 0.1 (17.7) (12.4) 10.3 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 DPS (MYR) 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Recurring P/E (x) 12.2 12.1 14.8 16.9 15.4 P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Return on average equity (%) 4.0 4.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 Net debt to equity (%) 48.3 50.8 40.2 37.1 36.7 Interest coverage (x) 5.5 4.8 3.7 3.3 3.8 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP19489/05/2019 (035080) UEM Sunrise Malaysia Company Update 13 November 2019 Property | Real Estate Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Malaysia Core EPS (MYR) 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 Property EPS (MYR) 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 UEM Sunrise DPS (MYR) 0.01 - - - - UEMS MK BVPS (MYR) 1.56 1.56 1.61 1.64 1.68 ROE (%) 4.03 3.96 2.69 2.73 2.93 ROA (%) 2.00 1.97 1.35 1.42 1.62 Valuation basis Based on 65% discount to RNAV Valuation metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Core P/E (x) 12.2 12.1 14.8 16.9 15.4 Key drivers P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Our FY19-21 forecasts are driven by: i. Sales from new projects and existing stocks; Dividend yield (%) 1.33 - - - - ii. Unbilled sales. EV/EBITDA (x) 16.9 19.0 12.7 19.0 18.1 Key risks Income statement (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 The downside risks include: i. Worst-than-expected economic growth; Total turnover 2,903 2,044 3,110 1,918 1,928 ii. Delay in launches; Gross profit 821 741 716 494 511 iii. Cancellation of infrastructure projects. EBITDA 506 488 390 322 337 Operating profit 501 483 385 317 332 Company Profile Net interest (91) (101) (103) (97) (88) UEM Sunrise (previously known as UEM Land) is a Exceptional items - - (37) - - company under Khazanah Nasional. It is the Pre-tax profit 439 416 297 283 312 developer undertaking developments in Nusajaya Taxation (157) (136) (101) (79) (87) Iskandar. Net profit 280 280 194 202 223 Core net profit 280 280 231 202 223 Cash flow (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Cash flow from operations (156) 135 118 110 118 Capex (102) (194) (105) (258) (260) Cash flow from investing activities (172) (127) (105) (258) (260) Cash flow from financing activities 287 367 327 327 327 Cash at beginning of period 789 806 1,077 1,417 1,596 Net change in cash 17 271 340 179 185 Ending balance cash 806 1,077 1,417 1,596 1,782 Balance sheet (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Total cash and equivalents 808 1,079 1,757 1,395 1,036 Tangible fixed assets 4,864 6,564 4,838 6,616 6,841 Intangible assets 621 621 621 621 621 Total investments 1,679 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611 Total other assets 6,425 4,240 5,805 3,607 3,615 Total assets 14,397 14,115 14,631 13,849 13,724 Short-term debt 1,486 2,289 2,089 1,789 1,489 Total long-term debt 2,734 2,395 2,595 2,384 2,380 Total liabilities 6,965 6,661 6,982 5,995 5,645 Shareholders' equity 7,069 7,090 7,284 7,486 7,709 Minority interests 363 364 366 368 370 Total equity 7,432 7,454 7,650 7,854 8,079 Total liabilities & equity 14,397 14,115 14,631 13,849 13,724 Key metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Revenue growth (%) 57.7 (29.6) 52.1 (38.3) 0.5 Core net profit growth (%) 90.1 0.1 (17.7) (12.4) 10.3 Core EPS growth (%) 90.8 0.1 (17.7) (12.9) 9.8 Gross margin (%) 28.3 36.3 23.0 25.8 26.5 Core net profit margin (%) 9.6 13.7 7.4 10.5 11.6 Dividend payout ratio (%) 16.2 - - - - Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP19489/05/2019 (035080) UEM Sunrise Malaysia Company Update 13 November 2019 Property | Real Estate Figure 2: RNAV estimate Projects Location Remaining land Remaining GDV Stake NPV @ 11% (acres) (MYR m) Ongoing projects East Ledang Iskandar Puteri 83.9 1,463.3 100% 164.5 Nusa Idaman Iskandar Puteri 20.3 932.9 100% 97.6 Nusa Bayu Iskandar Puteri 36.5 409.1 100% 106.7 Estuari Iskandar Puteri 333.1 2,702.0 100% 81.4 Aspira Lakehomes, Gerbang Nusajaya Iskandar Puteri 13.6 158.0 100% 14.3 Aspira Parkhomes, Gerbang Nusajaya Iskandar Puteri 24.6 190.5 100% 17.2 Mall of Medini Iskandar Puteri 26.2 2,097.0 55% 80.6 Horizon Hills Iskandar Puteri 372.0 1,730.8 50% 93.0 Emerald Bay Iskandar Puteri 98 3,177.0 40% 114.9 Nusajaya Tech Park Iskandar Puteri 399 3,185.0 40% 104.3 Serene Heights Selangor 192.9 3,247.5 100% 195.7 Radia Bukit Jelutong Selangor 7.5 1,038.9 50% 33.5 Solaris Parq KL 14.1 2,015.6 100% 181.3 New land in Mon't kiara KL 3.0 300.0 100% 28.3 Equine Selangor 19.3 722.3 100% 42.9 Seremban Forest Heights Negeri Sembilan 225.5 1,640.4 50% 55.7 Aurora Central Melbourne Australia 0.0 2,389.6 100% 197.0 Conservatory Melbourne Australia 0.0 990.6 100% 93.3 Mayfair Melbourne Australia 0.4 1,132.6 100% 54.3 Pipeline projects Gerbang Nusajaya Iskandar Puteri 2,335.1 25,512.4 100% 1,329.1 Gerbang Nusantara Iskandar Puteri 164.8 485.2 100% 44.4 Mix 13 Iskandar Puteri 14.9 234.0 100% 23.8 Serimbun 2 Iskandar Puteri 60.0 329.0 100% 23.2 Aspira Gardens (Cassia) Iskandar Puteri 19.9 84.7 100% 11.5 Residential South Iskandar Puteri 205.5 2,827.4 80% 143.2 The Waves (CS3) - Puteri Harbour Iskandar Puteri 6.7 1,201.0 50% 50.2 Gerbang Nusajaya - Mulpha JV (UEMS Land) Iskandar Puteri 217.2 2,771.0 50% 80.6 Gerbang Nusajaya - Mulpha JV (Mulpha Land) Iskandar Puteri 65.5 2,586.3 50% 93.5 Gerbang Nusajaya - KLK Iskandar Puteri 500.0 5,000.0 40% 128.5 Gerbang Nusajaya - Fastrackcity Iskandar Puteri 300.0 3,700.0 30% 78.7 Fraser Metropolis Johor 2,500.0 15,000.0 60% 274.8 Desaru Johor 678.7 10,460.0 51% 263.9 Artisan Hills, Kajang Selangor 65.0 1,485.9 100% 146.1 MCOBA Land KL 2.7 843.4 100% 56.3 Angkasa Raya KL 1.6 1,903.6 100% 152.0 MK 31 KL 12.4 742.0 100% 74.2 Kepong land KL 72.7 15,000.0 50% 531.3 Durban South Africa 30.7 1,631.9 100% 108.9 Remaining land Est.
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