How the European campaign looks in Ladies and Gentlemen:

We are a month away from the European elections. The campaign has already been in full swing over the last few weeks - first billboards have appeared in the cities, towns and villages, and advertising spots have showed up on the internet. Party leaders are touring Poland and every few days appear in regional election conventions. The parties have also presented their programmes and made new promises.

As always, the European election campaign in Poland has been dominated by national subjects. PiS is talking about 500+, additional pensions, tax breaks for the young and subsidies for farmers raising livestock. Koalicja Europejska (KE) is presenting a European programme, but national topics prevail in its message. Wiosna is also unveiling European proposals, but it is having a difficult time breaking through. So far, all of these issues have been overshadowed by the three-week teachers’ strike, which is now going to be suspended (starting from April 27).

Six committees have been registered in Poland: PiS, KE, Wiosna, Kukiz’15, Konfederacja and Lewica Razem. The first five are likely to gain a share of the votes that will surpass the required threshold, while it would be quite a surprise if Lewica Razem wins seats in the . Four weeks before the end of the campaign PiS is several percentage points ahead of KE in the polls. Wiosna is solidly above the threshold (with an average support of 9-10 per cent), while retreating Kukiz’15 is going head-to-head with the extreme right coalition Konfederacja.

After the holidays at the start of May, the campaign will enter its most intense stage. Politicians will appear increasingly often, TV spots will begin to appear and the number of billboard should rise. Therefore, just before the long May weekend, we present to you our election dossier, in which we write about the parties’ strategies and the role of turnout in the elections. We also present our forecast of the results.

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst Polityka Insight Table of contents

PiS ahead of Koalicja Europejska by three seats 4

High turnout in May elections will strengthen Koalicja Europejska 7

Why Kaczyński is the face of the PiS campaign 9

How Schetyna attempts to mobilise voters 11

How Biedroń runs his campaign 13

Konfederacja can overtake Kukiz’15 15

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 3 PiS ahead of Koalicja Europejska by three seats

According to our predictions, five political groupings can win seats in the European elections. Wiosna and Konfederacja have been gaining momentum in recent weeks.

PREDICTED DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS FOLLOWING THE 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

PiS: 1 KE: 2 PiS: 1 KE: 1

PiS: 1 PiS: 1 KE: 1 KE: 1 PiS: 2 PiS: 2 KE: 1 PiS: 1 KE: 2 KE: 2 Wiosna: 1 Wiosna: 1

PiS: 2 KE: 1 PiS: 2 PiS: 2 KE: 2 KE: 1 PiS: 2 Wiosna: 1 KE: 3 Kukiz’15: 1 PiS: 3 Wiosna: 1 KE: 2 Kukiz’15: 1 Wiosna: 1 Konfederacja: 1 Kukiz’15: 1 Konfederacja: 1 PiS: 2

Poland (total): PiS: 22 KE: 19 Wiosna: 5 Kukiz’15: 3 Konfederacja: 2

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 4 FORECAST

PiS is the favourite. According to the April forecast by Polityka Insight*, PiS has a chance to win 40.6 per cent of votes in the EurParl elections, giving it a total of 22 seats. The party will win at least two seats in each of nine districts, and one seat in each of the remaining four districts (Pomorskie, Podlaskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Zachodniopomorskie). PiS can count on three seats in Małopolska. If the party is able to gain advantage over its rivals, it could win additional seats in the Wielkopolska and Podlasie districts. If, however, support drops, it will probably lose the second of the forecast two places in Mazowsze and the Lublin region. PiS lists are constructed in such a way that either candidates from the first or from both the first and second places will gain EurParl seats (candidate number two may win a seat instead of candidate number one in a maximum of three cases). A record number of votes will probably be won by Beata Szydło in Małopolska and Jadwiga Wiśniewska in Śląsk.

Koalicja Europejska weaker than last month. In April, the average support for the Koalicja Europejska (European Coalition, or KE) fell by about 3 percentage points to 35 per cent. As it stands, this result gives KE 19 seats, although it cannot be certain that it will win seats in all districts. According to PI’s calculations - with the result at the level of 35 per cent and five committees above the threshold – KE may not have a representative in either of the Podkarpacie or Lublin region. A small margin of votes (a few tens of thousands) may prove decisive in the region. If KE’s result is worse than in PI’s forecast, this could result from a lack of a mandate in Mazowsze (Jarosław Kalinowski is the favourite on the list there) or obtaining only one mandate in Wielkopolska (Leszek Miller and Andrzej Grzyb are competing for the second of two seats). At the same time, if it does slightly better than fore- casted, KE has a chance to win seats in all districts and an additional, third seat in .

Wiosna with five seats. Over the past month, Robert Biedroń’s party has gained momentum and its average support stands at 9.6 per cent, which would give it five seats in the EurParl as of this point. Wiosna will most likely win a seat in Warsaw, where Biedroń is running, though the leader has announced that he would hand it over, probably to Joanna Scheuring- -Wielgus, who is running as number two. Wiosna will also have representatives in Śląsk (Łukasz Kohut), Kraków (Maciej Gdula), Dolny Śląsk (Krzysztof Śmiszek) and possibly in Wielkopolska (). If support for the party increases (to about 12 per cent), Wiosna could win a mandate in Pomorze. The Lewica Razem () coalition, which now has average support of 2.7 per cent in the polls, would benefit from a drop in support for Wiosna.

Kukiz’15 weakening, but still above threshold. In April, the average support for Kukiz’15 stood at 6 per cent. Such a result would guarantee the party three seats in the EurParl. The party will probably win a seat in Śląsk, where MP Grzegorz Długi is the list leader.

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 5 Kukiz’15 can also have MEPs in Małopolska (the list is opened by former candidate for Ombudsman for Children’s Rights Paweł Kukiz-Szczuciński) and in Dolny Śląsk, where MP Agnieszka Ścigaj leads the list. Marek Jurek, who is Kukiz’15’s number one in Wielkopolska, has little chance to renew his mandate. It is conceivable that owing to his popularity, Jurek will win a lot of votes and overtake candidates from other districts, but according to PI’s calculations, he could only get a mandate if the party were to win five seats.

Konfederacja is growing increasingly stronger. The April polls indicate that the extreme- -right coalition has a chance to win seats in the EurParl elections. On average, it is suppor- ted by 5.4 per cent of Poles, which gives it two seats in the new European Parliament. The first seat could be occupied by Konfederacja’s candidate from Śląsk - the leader of the list is an MP and the former presidential candidate . The extreme-right may also gain a mandate in Małopolska, where Konrad Berkowicz, deputy head of party Wolność is num- ber one. According to polls, support for Konfederacja is still growing; accordingly, its chan- ces for more seats in the EurParl are growing too. If the trend continues until the elections, new seats can be won by (in all probability): (no. 1 in Warsaw), Janusz Korwin-Mikke (no. 10 in Dolny Śląsk) and Piotr Liroy-Marzec (no. 1 in Poznań).

*The forecast was based on average results of EurParl polls conducted by the CATI method by IBRiS, Kantar Millward Brown and Kantar Polska in April. When calculating support for individual parties in the districts, PI took into account their results in the European elections in 2014 and in the elections to the (Parliament) in 2015.

THE BOTTOM A month before the EurParl elections, polls point to PiS as the favourite. LINE The support for Jarosław Kaczyński’s party is stable, while KE has weake- ned slightly in the last month (it polls 5.5 points behind the ruling party). Kukiz ‚15, which is not very visible in the current campaign, is weakening. It may soon be overtaken by Konfederacja (which is gaining momentum in the polls). In PI’s opinion, this trend may continue, which would result in Kukiz’15 coming under the threshold and three or four seats for the extre- me right-wing coalition. However, the key four weeks of the campaign are still ahead of us - so the trends may yet change.

AUTHOR

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 6 High turnout in May elections will strengthen Koalicja Europejska

As many as 40 per cent of eligible voters could take part in the European elections. The mobilisation of big cities will benefit Koalicja Europejska and Wiosna.

The European elections will take place on May 26. In Poland, the cross-section of people taking part in the vote (according to their place of residence) usually differs from that during national elections. During European elections more people vote in big cities - in 2014, as many as 20 per cent of all the votes cast were from the six biggest cities. By comparison, in the 2018 local elections, such voters accounted for 13 per cent of the total electorate. We present our forecast of turnout in the upcoming election.

FORECAST

Turnout will go up by at least 10 points. While turnout in Poland’s national elections (presidential, local government, parliamentary) is usually between 45 and 55 per cent, during the European ones it tends not to exceed 25 per cent. It was exactly 25 per cent in 2009, and 24 per cent in 2014. In both cases, nearly a third fewer people took place in the vote than had declared they would - according to CBOS, 38 and 34 per cent respectively. Recent studies (April 2019) suggest that mobilisation ahead of the elections to EurParl is very high, with 60 per cent of eligible voters planning to take part. If the situation repeats itself and turnout is a third lower than declared, more than 40 per cent of voters could still go to the polls. Studies commissioned by PO also suggest a high turnout at 46 per cent.

Big cities will vote in large numbers. The expected high turnout in cities is connected with the extraordinary voter mobilisation which took place in the autumn of 2018. It is unlikely that as many residents of big cities will vote in May as did in the last local election (in Warsaw it was 60 per cent, in Kraków and Łódź - 58 per cent) but the number should not fall by more than 10-15 percentage points. In 2014, the difference between turnout in the local elections (November) and the European elections (May) was between 5 and 10 percentage points, depending on the city. If the same is true of this year’s election, a turnout of nearly 50 per cent can be expected in big cities in May. In addition, CBOS studies show that 75 per cent

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 7 of big city residents want to cast their vote, which also suggests that - in accordance with the trends - at least half of all eligible voters should take part in the election. This will boost the results of PO and Wiosna, which are strong there.

Turnout in rural areas likely to be lower. In the last European election, 31 per cent of all the votes were cast by rural voters. By comparison, in the local elections of 2018, their votes accounted for 40 per cent of the total. A CBOS poll on the European elections carried out in April 2019 points to increased mobilisation (declarations regarding an intention to vote) of all voters regardless of residence. The increase in rural areas is, however, relatively lowest - it is 20 percentage points (from 40 per cent in 2014 to 60 per cent at the moment) while the increase is big cities is 32 percentage points. This is bad news for the ruling party which has high poll ratings in the rural areas (40-45 per cent support in the polls).

PO voters especially likely to mobilise. According to the latest CBOS study, 78 per cent of PO supporters plan to vote in the European elections, as do 72 per cent of Wiosna voters and 68 per cent of PiS supporters. Five years ago the differences in the mobilisation of the two biggest parties’ voters were smaller (PiS- 76 per cent, PO- 75 per cent). In addition, some PiS voters view the European elections as less important than the national ones and could decide not to vote to send a warning signal (a sort of yellow card) to the ruling party.

THE BOTTOM The increase in European election turnout compared to 2009 and 2014 LINE is almost certain. The high mobilisation of city voters which became apparent during the local elections is still there. This was confirmed by social uproar following the death of the mayor of Gdańsk Paweł Adamowicz, the large amounts collected by WOŚP and the turnout in the Gdańsk mayoral election. Studies suggest that the beneficiaries of mobilisation by big city voters will be mainly PO and Wiosna, which enjoy high support in those areas.

AUTHOR

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 8 Why Kaczyński is the face of the PiS campaign

PiS will not repeat its 2015 manoeuvre and hide its leader during the campaign. There will be no move to the centre this time around, however.

On February 23, Jarosław Kaczyński announced PiS’s promises for the end of the term of office, comprising the so-called new Kaczyński’s Five (including the extension of the 500+ programme and a one-off bonus for pensioners). On March 9, at a convention in Rzeszów, the PiS leader initiated a campaign against the LGBT community, and on March 30 in Gdańsk, he presented his party’s „freedom” promise concerning the implementation of the Copyright Directive (ACTA 2). At the convention in Wrocław, Kaczyński was the only speaker, and in Kadzidło, he presented a support programme for farmers. The leader of PiS – at least in the initial phase of the campaign – has been the main face of the party, unlike in the 2018 local government campaign or 2015 parliamentary elections, in which Beata Szydło played the main role.

REASONS

Campaign weakness of Morawiecki. Mateusz Morawiecki is active in the European cam- paign, but the most important appearances, including those announcing the government actions, are going to Kaczyński. This is not only because the PM is absorbed by governmen- tal responsibilities. Among the ruling camp, the dominant conception is that the mission the PM was expected to carry out, that is to reach out to more moderate voters, those with higher education and city dwellers, has proved unsuccessful. Last year’s local government elections in the cities were a spectacular testimony to this failure. Despite Morawiecki’s great commitment, PiS candidates were consistently losing to representatives of the oppo- sition, often achieving results even worse than in 2014.

Games inside PiS. Kaczyński has stayed in the shadow for a long time; it was only in the second half of his term of office that he admitted it was he who invented the 500+ program- me in 2015. The decision to increase his activity in the campaign encouraged party activists to flatter and emphasise the leader’s role. Party activists, as well as public media employees, call the promised package „Kaczyński’s Five”, and the additional allowance for pensioners “Jarek’s”. The party demonstrates in such a way that Kaczyński remains its sole leader.

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 9 At the same time, Morawiecki is still the most important candidate for prime minister if PiS forms a government this autumn, as Kaczyński himself does not want to take his place.

Change in strategy compared to 2015. Kaczyński’s coming to the foreground shows that the current campaign goals are different than those of 2015. At the time, in the face of PO’s crisis, PiS began a so-called „march to the centre” (marked by mild rhetoric, social promi- ses, the hiding of Kaczyński, Antoni Macierewicz and Zbigniew Ziobro). According to the exit poll, this strategy attracted several hundred thousand former PO voters to PiS. Accor- ding to PI, such flows are currently impossible, and PiS’s main goal is to encourage its own supporters to vote. For the right-wing electorate, Kaczyński remains the greatest authority.

Kaczyński performs better than Schetyna in the confidence poll. Hiding Kaczyński in the 2015 campaigns (and earlier, the nomination of the „technical prime minister” Piotr Gliński) was rational because the CBOS polls showed that leader of PiS was one of the least trusted politicians. In the first half of 2015, Kaczyński was trusted by 31-34 per cent of Poles, while 46-50 per cent did not trust him. At the present moment, these ratings are better - over the last six months, the percentage of respondents trusting the PiS head ranged from 39 to 43 per cent and those who did not trust him - from 42 to 47 per cent. In this survey, Kaczyński has performed much better than Grzegorz Schetyna (23 per cent trust him, 45 per cent do not). Kaczyński’s rise in the rankings will embolden him to play a more active role in the campaign.

THE BOTTOM Kaczyński’s more active role in the European campaign shows that PiS LINE has abandoned the idea of expanding the electorate at the expense of the centrist opposition and is focusing on mobilising its own supporters and fighting smaller right-wing competitors. A side effect of this strategy is the risk of increasing the turnout of the opposition’s electorate, especially for Koalicja Europejska (KE) and a further strengthening of the polarisation of the political arena. The conclusions from the ongoing campaign will serve to create a strategy for the parliamentary elections - if PiS loses on May 26, Kaczyński may limit his role in the parliamentary elections.

AUTHOR

Wojciech Szacki Senior Analyst for Political Affairs

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 10 How Schetyna attempts to mobilise voters

In its programme, Koalicja Europejska is focusing on the European affairs. Its rethoric, however, is more nationally oriented.

Koalicja Europejska – an alliance of PO, PSL, SLD, and Nowoczesna – is focusing in its programme on EU-related matters and has made general promises regarding streng- thening Poland’s position in Brussels, the quality of life, access to services, transport and EU funds. However, during the convention that launched its campaign, Koalicja’s leaders spoke quite differently about the European elections, presenting them as a major choice that would determine how Poland would function as a state and who would run it. The KE’s slogan: Poland’s future: a crucial choice, is related to it. Grzegorz Schetyna spoke of the democratic state guaranteed by KE, juxtaposing it against the „party state” offered by PiS. The politicians pointed out that the European elections are a first step towards removing PiS from power.

ASSESSMENT

KE stresses its pro-European nature. Koalicja argues that on May 26, Poles will make a so-called „civilisational choice” (as implied by the slogan „crucial choice”). KE wants to present itself as the guarantor of Poland’s strong position in the EU, and boasts the effectiveness of its representatives in Brussels, which get along far better with key foreign partners than do PiS politicians, as their main asset. For this reason, according to KE leaders, a strong KE representation in EurParl would boost Poland’s position and help bring it out of isolation. The experience of former PMs running on KE lists is presented as another asset. The Koalicja’s purpose is to take advantage of the pro-EU views of the vast majority of Poles.

Koalicja strikes out at Wiosna. The KE declaration is formulated in such a way, so as to take over the electorate of Robert Biedroń’s party. In so doing, the Koalicja hopes to build an advantage over PiS. The proposals of the two political formations are quite similar: like Wiosna, KE is proposing a European oncological programme, and wants to fight against transport exclusion and smog. The Koalicja has already attracted some of Wiosna’s voters thanks to its unification, pushing Biedroń’s party onto the defensive. On the other hand, KE wants to mobilise its own electorate, accusing PiS of calling for a Polexit. If big-city supporters of the KE parties vote in greater numbers than usual in the European elections, KE’s chances of a victory over PiS will increase.

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 11 Absence of any real programme. It is difficult to call the KE proposals a coherent pro- gramme; they are much too vague to unite the differing views of all coalition members. The parties that constitute KE do not share a common position; for instance, they differ in views regarding the adoption of the single currency and on ideological issues, which has already led to several public discussions between KE partners. MEPs elected from the KE lists will also sit in at least two competing factions in EurParl (PO and PSL representatives will join the Christian Democrats; SLD will join the Social Democrats). The institutional weakness of the KE in comparison to PiS arises from campaigning as an opposition bloc – the KE leadership is pitted not only against similarly general European proposals from PiS, but also the government’s recent social promises accompanied by an intense media campaign.

Exposure to PiS attacks, difficulties mobilising the electorate. PiS strategists will use the wide range of views and Koalicja Europejska’s lack of a specific programme to prove that the sole motive behind the creation of this alliance is the desire to take the reins, not to repair the state. The general ideological direction of KE’s proposals – on the one hand, ideologically rather leftist, and on the other, far from liberalism – could make it difficult to mobilise some parts of the electorate. This is mainly true of conservative PSL voters and people with liberal views on the economy, who supported Nowoczesna in the last elections.

THE BOTTOM The opening of the KE campaign proves that Grzegorz Schetyna consi- LINE ders the main goal to be the mobilisation of opposition voters, and not an attempt to recapture PiS supporters. Such a conclusion results from qualitative studies of the electorate, which show the unlikelihood of voters moving between the ruling and opposition parties. A KE strategy of this sort is a major threat to the success of Robert Biedroń’s project, whose supporters - given the large similarity of the programmes in the European campaign - may redirect their vote to the more powerful political grouping. A very similar strategy was adopted by PiS on its side; it is not attempting to win over moderate voters, but rather to mobilise its electorate and prevent the emergence of a new force on the Right.

AUTHORS

Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst Wojciech Szacki Senior Analyst for Political Affairs

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 12 How Biedroń runs his campaign Wiosna has survived its first campaign crisis. It offers voters protection for minorities, the introduction of a European passport and the co-financing of the construction of 10 million flats.

In April, support for Wiosna stands at 9.6, which means that Robert Biedroń’s party has survived the first polling crisis since its creation. It seems that Biedroń has also success- fully resolved his image crisis. Following Warszawska Gazeta’s April 18 article claiming that he had had a lawsuit brought against him for abusing his mother, the Wiosna leader appeared with her on TVN. Both of them gave assurances that the only aggressor in the family was the father, and announced a lawsuit against the publishers of Warszawska Gazeta.

POLICY

„Brainstorms” continue, defence of minorities. Robert Biedroń is continuing his series of „brainstorms”, which preceded Wiosna’s founding congress and are supposed to represent a new approach to politics. On April 23, he held such a meeting (centered on the moderation of a debate between participants) in Gdynia. Wiosna’s regional conventions are also taking place (the next one is on April 27 in Wrocław) and the Biedrońbus tour of Poland is to start after the long May weekend (first weekend). According to Polityka Insight’s information, the PR campaign in defence of minority rights, including the disabled, will soon begin; Wiosna will criticise the SLD, PO and PiS governments for omissions in this area.

Promoting other list leaders. The face of Wiosna’s campaign in Biedroń, so far the only widely recognisable politician of the party and candidate for MEP from the Warsaw district - Wiosna’s result will depend primarily on him. However, the party is promoting two other list leaders - Sylwia Spurek (former deputy Ombudswoman is running in Wielkopolska) and Łukasz Kohut (number one in Śląsk). Apart from Biedroń, the two were the only ones to speak at the mini-convention in Warsaw at the beginning of April. Leader of the Małopolska-Świętokrzyska list and sociologist Maciej Gdula is also trying to foster an active media presence.

Trying to build a European identity. Biedroń has implied that Wiosna MEPs will join one of the larger EurParl factions (Socialists and Democrats). The party’s slogans suggest that

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 13 it is focusing first and foremost on reaching young voters and building a European identi- ty. Wiosna has announced that will strive to introduce a European passport, free railway travel for people under 26, another edition of the Erasmus programme (Erasmus 2, which will also include the exchange of young workers), co-financing of the construction of 10 million flats and a European programme of combating cancer, among other reforms.

Distancing himself from PiS more than from PO. Biedroń has built his political identity on equal parts criticism of PiS and PO. He accused PiS of violating the constitution, PO of lacking ideals, hypocrisy and a lack of courage. He changed his approach during the European campaign and started to attack PiS more aggressively, positioning himself as a potential coalition partner for PO. In an interview with Polityka, he conveyed what he would do as deputy PM in a Grzegorz Schetyna government. Neither party rules out a joint list in the Senate elections and, in the event of a defeat in the European elections, a joint campaign in the Sejm (Parliamentary) elections. The change of Biedroń’s tactics shows that he has drawn conclusions from studies according to which Wiosna’s electorate is at least as anti-PiS as PO voters.

THE BOTTOM With a month to go before the European elections, Wiosna’s ratings have LINE stabilised and in most of the polls it has the third position, with sufficient support to guarantee meeting the electoral threshold. It means that Koalicja Europejska (European Coalition) will struggle to eliminate its rival with arguments that a vote cast for Wiosna is a wasted vote. Depending on the quality of its campaign, the party can still lose or gain a little in the polls, but abrupt and significant changes in support are becoming less and less likely.

AUTHOR

Wojciech Szacki Senior Analyst for Political Affairs

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 14 Konfederacja can overtake Kukiz’15

The extreme right-wing coalition is slightly weaker in the polls than Paweł Kukiz’s grouping. However, signs are pointing to an ultimate better result for the coalition.

On April 7, Konfederacja organised the first convention ahead of the elections to the European Parliament. The speeches made by the leaders of the extreme right-wing coalition were strongly anti-EU. They also promised to fight abortion, immigration, „LGBT ideology” and Jewish property claims. On April 11, the newly formed Partia Kierowców (Driver’s Party) joined the alliance. Apart from them, Konfederacja also includes nationalists, the KORWiN party, Marek Jakubiak’s Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej (The Federation for the Polish Republic) and groups linked to Piotr Liroy-Marzec (Skuteczni), Kaja Godek and . According to most European polls, Konfederacja meets the electoral threshold, and its support is growing.

PROSPECTS

Lack of Kukiz’15 activity. Paweł Kukiz’s movement, Konfederacja’s main competitor, has been almost invisible in the European election campaign. It has not organised or announced a convention, but has only announced the number one on the electoral lists in the form of a communiqué sent to the Polish Press Agency (PAP). Its passive approach suits the far-right coalition, which decidedly stands out in comparison. Konfederacja was already active as an alliance before the end of February, when it presented its name. On April 7, it had a convention and is planning another national event and additional regional conventions. On May 1, on the 15th anniversary of Poland’s accession to the EU, it plans to organise a „March for Sovereignty”. According to Ruch Narodowy’s (RN) leader Robert Winnicki, it will be directed „against the appropriation of the sovereignty and indepen- dence of the Polish state at the hands of Brussels commissioners.”

Clear and radical message. Konfederacja is the only openly anti-EU force running in the EurParl elections. The differences between individual members of the alliance in their attitude towards Brussels have not broken through to public opinion. The extreme right-wing alliance also has a clear position on ideological issues - it advocates a total ban on abortion and „homosexual propaganda”. On the one hand, such radicalism limits the number of potential new voters (according to the April poll by Kantar MB for Gazeta

Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 15 Wyborcza, only 7 per cent of Poles want to leave the EU). On the other hand, however, it is positively perceived by extreme right-wing citizens – Konfederacja has a monopoly on such demands. Kukiz’s ideas have ceased to evoke emotions; his vision of the Europe of homelands seems unclear and poorly communicated and partly resembles the PiS party message.

Opportunity to play around with various factions and leaders. There are various factions of the extreme right-wing comprising Konfederacja, which in the past were competing with one other. There are several dividing lines, these include approaches to the economy and religion. As a result, some members are opposed to such a cooperation, but Konfe- deracja’s politicians are convinced that diversity (hardly perceived from the outside) will help them to reach a wider electorate. Their strength also lies in the involvement of popu- lar people on the right, such as Godek, Korwin-Mikke and Winnicki. Kukiz’s movement is supported by rather less-known people (apart from Marek Jurek, who is number one on the list in Wielkopolska).

Internet popularity. The extreme right-wing enjoys popularity among young voters active on the Internet. Korwin-Mikke, with almost 750,000 fans, is the most popular Polish politician on Facebook; he is ahead of by 100,000 likes, and 330,000 ahead of Kukiz. Konfederacja is also supported by portals and online media close to it (such as Media Narodowe and video blogger Marcin Rola). Radicals, however, are weaker than Kukiz’15 in the traditional media, especially those favouring PiS. In contrast to Kukiz’15 politicians, they are not invited to TVP, and the press close to the ruling party reports their activity only marginally, as PiS recognises Konfederacja as competition, and Kukiz’15 as a potential coalition partner.

THE BOTTOM The differences in the polls between Kukiz’15 and Konfederacja amount to LINE about 1-2 percentage points in favour of Paweł Kukiz’s movement. None of the forces can be sure of seats, but the right-wing alliance is on the rise, and it could therefore overtake Kukiz’15 and win seats in the EurParl. However, even if none of the parties enters EurParl, it is important for both of them that they get more votes than the other, since the results will serve as a prognosis for the autumn parliamentary elections. In unofficial conversations, Konfederacja’s politicians thus emphasise that it is even more important to beat Kukiz’15 than to enter the European Parliament.

AUTOR

Ryszard Łuczyn Political Affairs Analyst

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