How the European campaign looks in Poland Ladies and Gentlemen: We are a month away from the European elections. The campaign has already been in full swing over the last few weeks - first billboards have appeared in the cities, towns and villages, and advertising spots have showed up on the internet. Party leaders are touring Poland and every few days appear in regional election conventions. The parties have also presented their programmes and made new promises. As always, the European election campaign in Poland has been dominated by national subjects. PiS is talking about 500+, additional pensions, tax breaks for the young and subsidies for farmers raising livestock. Koalicja Europejska (KE) is presenting a European programme, but national topics prevail in its message. Wiosna is also unveiling European proposals, but it is having a difficult time breaking through. So far, all of these issues have been overshadowed by the three-week teachers’ strike, which is now going to be suspended (starting from April 27). Six committees have been registered in Poland: PiS, KE, Wiosna, Kukiz’15, Konfederacja and Lewica Razem. The first five are likely to gain a share of the votes that will surpass the required threshold, while it would be quite a surprise if Lewica Razem wins seats in the European Parliament. Four weeks before the end of the campaign PiS is several percentage points ahead of KE in the polls. Wiosna is solidly above the threshold (with an average support of 9-10 per cent), while retreating Kukiz’15 is going head-to-head with the extreme right coalition Konfederacja. After the holidays at the start of May, the campaign will enter its most intense stage. Politicians will appear increasingly often, TV spots will begin to appear and the number of billboard should rise. Therefore, just before the long May weekend, we present to you our election dossier, in which we write about the parties’ strategies and the role of turnout in the elections. We also present our forecast of the results. Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst Polityka Insight Table of contents PiS ahead of Koalicja Europejska by three seats 4 High turnout in May elections will strengthen Koalicja Europejska 7 Why Kaczyński is the face of the PiS campaign 9 How Schetyna attempts to mobilise voters 11 How Biedroń runs his campaign 13 Konfederacja can overtake Kukiz’15 15 Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 3 PiS ahead of Koalicja Europejska by three seats According to our predictions, five political groupings can win seats in the European elections. Wiosna and Konfederacja have been gaining momentum in recent weeks. PREDICTED DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS FOLLOWING THE 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PiS: 1 KE: 2 PiS: 1 KE: 1 PiS: 1 PiS: 1 KE: 1 KE: 1 PiS: 2 PiS: 2 KE: 1 PiS: 1 KE: 2 KE: 2 Wiosna: 1 Wiosna: 1 PiS: 2 KE: 1 PiS: 2 PiS: 2 KE: 2 KE: 1 PiS: 2 Wiosna: 1 KE: 3 Kukiz’15: 1 PiS: 3 Wiosna: 1 KE: 2 Kukiz’15: 1 Wiosna: 1 Konfederacja: 1 Kukiz’15: 1 Konfederacja: 1 PiS: 2 Poland (total): PiS: 22 KE: 19 Wiosna: 5 Kukiz’15: 3 Konfederacja: 2 Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 4 FORECAST PiS is the favourite. According to the April forecast by Polityka Insight*, PiS has a chance to win 40.6 per cent of votes in the EurParl elections, giving it a total of 22 seats. The party will win at least two seats in each of nine districts, and one seat in each of the remaining four districts (Pomorskie, Podlaskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Zachodniopomorskie). PiS can count on three seats in Małopolska. If the party is able to gain advantage over its rivals, it could win additional seats in the Wielkopolska and Podlasie districts. If, however, support drops, it will probably lose the second of the forecast two places in Mazowsze and the Lublin region. PiS lists are constructed in such a way that either candidates from the first or from both the first and second places will gain EurParl seats (candidate number two may win a seat instead of candidate number one in a maximum of three cases). A record number of votes will probably be won by Beata Szydło in Małopolska and Jadwiga Wiśniewska in Śląsk. Koalicja Europejska weaker than last month. In April, the average support for the Koalicja Europejska (European Coalition, or KE) fell by about 3 percentage points to 35 per cent. As it stands, this result gives KE 19 seats, although it cannot be certain that it will win seats in all districts. According to PI’s calculations - with the result at the level of 35 per cent and five committees above the threshold – KE may not have a representative in either of the Podkarpacie or Lublin region. A small margin of votes (a few tens of thousands) may prove decisive in the region. If KE’s result is worse than in PI’s forecast, this could result from a lack of a mandate in Mazowsze (Jarosław Kalinowski is the favourite on the list there) or obtaining only one mandate in Wielkopolska (Leszek Miller and Andrzej Grzyb are competing for the second of two seats). At the same time, if it does slightly better than fore- casted, KE has a chance to win seats in all districts and an additional, third seat in Warsaw. Wiosna with five seats. Over the past month, Robert Biedroń’s party has gained momentum and its average support stands at 9.6 per cent, which would give it five seats in the EurParl as of this point. Wiosna will most likely win a seat in Warsaw, where Biedroń is running, though the leader has announced that he would hand it over, probably to Joanna Scheuring- -Wielgus, who is running as number two. Wiosna will also have representatives in Śląsk (Łukasz Kohut), Kraków (Maciej Gdula), Dolny Śląsk (Krzysztof Śmiszek) and possibly in Wielkopolska (Sylwia Spurek). If support for the party increases (to about 12 per cent), Wiosna could win a mandate in Pomorze. The Lewica Razem (United Left) coalition, which now has average support of 2.7 per cent in the polls, would benefit from a drop in support for Wiosna. Kukiz’15 weakening, but still above threshold. In April, the average support for Kukiz’15 stood at 6 per cent. Such a result would guarantee the party three seats in the EurParl. The party will probably win a seat in Śląsk, where MP Grzegorz Długi is the list leader. Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 5 Kukiz’15 can also have MEPs in Małopolska (the list is opened by former candidate for Ombudsman for Children’s Rights Paweł Kukiz-Szczuciński) and in Dolny Śląsk, where MP Agnieszka Ścigaj leads the list. Marek Jurek, who is Kukiz’15’s number one in Wielkopolska, has little chance to renew his mandate. It is conceivable that owing to his popularity, Jurek will win a lot of votes and overtake candidates from other districts, but according to PI’s calculations, he could only get a mandate if the party were to win five seats. Konfederacja is growing increasingly stronger. The April polls indicate that the extreme- -right coalition has a chance to win seats in the EurParl elections. On average, it is suppor- ted by 5.4 per cent of Poles, which gives it two seats in the new European Parliament. The first seat could be occupied by Konfederacja’s candidate from Śląsk - the leader of the list is an MP and the former presidential candidate Jacek Wilk. The extreme-right may also gain a mandate in Małopolska, where Konrad Berkowicz, deputy head of party Wolność is num- ber one. According to polls, support for Konfederacja is still growing; accordingly, its chan- ces for more seats in the EurParl are growing too. If the trend continues until the elections, new seats can be won by (in all probability): Krzysztof Bosak (no. 1 in Warsaw), Janusz Korwin-Mikke (no. 10 in Dolny Śląsk) and Piotr Liroy-Marzec (no. 1 in Poznań). *The forecast was based on average results of EurParl polls conducted by the CATI method by IBRiS, Kantar Millward Brown and Kantar Polska in April. When calculating support for individual parties in the districts, PI took into account their results in the European elections in 2014 and in the elections to the Sejm (Parliament) in 2015. THE BOTTOM A month before the EurParl elections, polls point to PiS as the favourite. LINE The support for Jarosław Kaczyński’s party is stable, while KE has weake- ned slightly in the last month (it polls 5.5 points behind the ruling party). Kukiz ‚15, which is not very visible in the current campaign, is weakening. It may soon be overtaken by Konfederacja (which is gaining momentum in the polls). In PI’s opinion, this trend may continue, which would result in Kukiz’15 coming under the threshold and three or four seats for the extre- me right-wing coalition. However, the key four weeks of the campaign are still ahead of us - so the trends may yet change. AUTHOR Joanna Sawicka Political Affairs Analyst Polityka Insight How the European campaign looks like in Poland 6 High turnout in May elections will strengthen Koalicja Europejska As many as 40 per cent of eligible voters could take part in the European elections. The mobilisation of big cities will benefit Koalicja Europejska and Wiosna. The European elections will take place on May 26. In Poland, the cross-section of people taking part in the vote (according to their place of residence) usually differs from that during national elections.