Upcoming Events

PMIQ Toastmasters 21st March 2016 @ 5:30pm Lvl 28, Brisbane Square, 266 George St www.easy-speak.org

PMIQ Job Club Date TBC Brisbane Square Library, George St LinkedIn Group: PMIQ Job Club 24 members have found jobs!

April Brisbane Chapter Meeting April Gold Coast Chapter Meeting Rod Snowden 26th April 2016 Author of Managing Successful Programmes Southport Yacht Club – 5:45-8:30pm 26th April 2016 Venue TBC – 5:45-8:30pm

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmarch 1 Welcome to the March 2016 Brisbane Event

Making Project Management indispensable for business results.® 2 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 3 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 4 QVC Solutions presents Rod Sowden

Rod Sowden is a Global leader in the field of Program Management and Capability Maturity Management.

Rod has authored 8 publications including the P3M3® capability maturity model.

Rod is QVC Solutions trusted partner and will be presenting at several events across Brisbane and Melbourne.

www.qvcsolutions.com 5 Brisbane Events

22nd April Practitioner Seminar with Rod Sowden and Dave Wright 9.00am – 12.00pm Christie Building, Adelaide Street, Brisbane Target Audience: Practitioners - $195 or $150 for PMI Members 26th April Successful Implementation of Strategies through Project and Portfolio Management 7am – 9am Tattersalls Club, Queen Street, Brisbane Target Audience: Senior Management (Invitation Only Event)

www.qvcsolutions.com 6 Brisbane Events

26th April Community of Practice – Program and Benefit Management Insights 10am 111 George Street Target Audience: Practitioners (Invite Only)

26th April Insights from Leading Author of MSP® and P3M3® Rod Sowden PMI Chapter Event

www.qvcsolutions.com 7 Melbourne Events

28th April Successful Implementation of Strategies through Project and Portfolio Management 7am – 9am Crown Promenade, Melbourne Target Audience: Senior Management (Invitation Only)

28th April Insights from Leading Author of MSP® and P3M3® Rod Sowden PMI Chapter Event

www.qvcsolutions.com 8 Should you wish to attend any of our events, please email [email protected] and we will be in touch.

www.qvcsolutions.com 9 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 10 Volunteer Engagement Team Vacancies EOI

• We are seeking Expressions of Interest from members who wish to volunteer in leadership roles in the Chapter. Specifically we are looking for a Volunteer Engagement Associate Director/Portfolio Lead and several Volunteer Engagement Team Members.

• The Volunteer Engagement Associate Director/Portfolio Lead:

– Builds and leads the VE Team to support the attraction, recruitment, and retention of our 70+ volunteers

– Implements the Board’s Volunteer Engagement Strategy

– Is a member of the PMIQ Leadership Team

• The Volunteer Engagement Team Members:

– Manage all interactions and engagement with candidate and established volunteers, supporting them through the lifecycle of their work as volunteers. This includes all attraction, recruitment and retention processes.

– Each team members has a specific role to fulfill (e.g. responding to volunteer enquiries, advertising roles, supporting selection processes, arranging volunteer appreciation events).

• If you are interested in these roles please email your resume and cover letter to Maria Robins at [email protected] by COB Sunday 20 March.

11 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Standards OverviewJoin the Presentation conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 12 Professional Development

PMIQ is here to assist you become a well rounded project professional through your career.

Traditional Approach: • Technical skills e.g. • PMP • CAPM

New: • Leadership skills • Strategic and Business Management

PMI Queensland Chapter, Brisbane 13 Professional Development

What does the portfolio want to do?

• Study Groups: PMP etc. • Recommended Education Providers (REP) Liaise to assist members • Certifications: What is available for members? • Professional Development Units (PDU): How do you earn them? • Mentoring: Help us grow into better project professionals

How do we achieve this?

YOU – Please volunteer

For more details: [email protected]

PMI Queensland Chapter, Brisbane 14 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 15 PMIQ Portfolio Update – March 2016

- Industry Engagement & Sponsorship

David Close PMIQ Industry Engagement Team Associate Director – Industry • David Close – Associate Director • Gillian Deane – Associate • Nathan King – Associate

16 PMIQ Industry Engagement Team* and Relationships Relationships PMI Region 10 Australiasia (Australasia) • Region Meetings & Portfolio Calls • Regional Initiatives

PMIQ Board PMI Queensland David Close PMI Leadership Team Associate Director - Industry • PMIQ Initiatives (Strategy Day)

PMI Australia Chapters • PMI Australia-wide initiatives • National Executive Roadshows

Gillian Deane Nathan King Australian Industry Associate - Industry Associate – Industry & Global Executive Leaders Companies • Forums with C-level Executives * Opportunities available in IE roles • National & Global Companies • National & Global Sponsors

17 March 2016 Update – PMIQ Industry Engagement

Focus areas:

• PMIQld – Establishing relations and forums with national and international companies

• PMI Aust Chapters – Building relations and forums with other chapters for forums

Forums so far 2015-16

• Brisbane – Executive Breakfasts – a) Prior and b) During the PMIAC15 Conference

• Gold Coast – Forum with 50 x Project Managers at Gold Coast City Council

• NASA Executive Breakfast Roadshows (6 cities) – allAboutXpert - >1k attendees; 200 each city - Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth - Attended by Executives incl Qld Minister for Innovation, Science and Digital Economy

Benefits for PMIQ Members

• Extend your reach and networking with Executives and Practitioners

• Thought-leading topics with International and National experts

18 Upcoming – Rod Sowden (International Speaker)

Industry Forum with International P3M3 and MSP Expert

• Brisbane and Melbourne - Week 4 April - 26 – 29/04/2016

• Topic: Successful implementation of Strategies through Project & Portfolio Management

• Speaker: Rod Sowden - P3M3 Expert and MSP Lead Author

• Audience: C-level Executive events and Practitioner events

• Locations: 6 events => Brisbane (3 events); Melbourne (3 events)

• Events x 3: 1. Executive Breakfast 2. PMI Chapter event 3. Workshop with the Expert

Benefits for PMIQ Members

• Discounts for PMI Members

• Networking with Executives and Practitioners

19 Activities in the Industry Engagement Team A. Engaging Executives across Industry David Close – Building relations with Industry Leaders – Executives – Building relations with other PMI Australia Chapters - PMI Melbourne | PMI Sydney | PMI Adelaide | PMI WA | PMI Canberra – Current topics – Global Companies, Universities, Commonwealth Games Gillian Deane and Nathan King – Support building relations with Industry Leaders, Executives and Sponsors – Account Managers with Companies and Sponsors

B. Benefits for PMIQ Members from IE Activities • Increase Knowledge through Thought-leadership forums • Increase Networks with C-level Executives and Practitioners

C. Be a Volunteer in the IE Team • Build your career & brand through the activities and reach of the PMIQ IE team • Increase Networks with C-level Executives and Practitioners • Cross skill between Portfolios – eg Dave Lockley: Industry Engagement => Prof Dev

20 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 21 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments

Warren Black PMI Chapter Event Brisbane, Queensland March 17th, 2016

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 IceBreaker – Heuristics & Cognitive Bias

People tend to only see that which they are trained to see… thereby ignoring all other possibilities Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Introduction

Today we are going to explore the relationship between Project Uncertainty, Complexity & Risk;

 Uncertainty is the relative degree of environmental “unknowns” in play  Complexity is the relative degree of interdependent relationships in play  Risk is the relative degree of material threats/opportunities in play

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The evolution of project complexity

Year 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Earths Population 1.5Bn 3.5Bn 9.5Bn

Fastest Manned Travel Steam Train Sonic Airplanes Mars Coloniser (>100km/h) (>1,000km/h) (>60,000km/h)

Buildings Strasbourg Cathedral Empire State Dubai City Tower? 150M 380M 2400M

Infrastructure Continental Train Inter Continental Gas Interstellar Networks Pipelines Colonisation

Information Technology Continental Wire Inter Continental Inter Planetary Satellite Systems Telephone Systems Communication Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Progress is Exponential!

We are only here!

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2050

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the demand for global infrastructure #2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and therefore more risky

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The current reality… projects fail!

More than Sixty Percent (>60%) ... of the worlds most complex projects over the past 70 years were observed to have failed to come in either under budget, or on time, or realising the investor’s desired benefits

Derived from benchmarking a data base of 2,062 large-complex projects across all industries, in both private and public sector and across both technology and infrastructure

-Bent Flyvbjerg, Oxford School of Program Management

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Prove it!

Back in the day…

 Sydney Opera House (1400%)

 Desalination plants (Victoria’s alone grew from $1Bn to $20Bn)

 Queensland Health Payroll System ($10million to $1.1Bn)

Current projects…

 Gorgon-Wheatstone ($30bn to $55bn)

 *NBN

 *Future Submarines

 *QCLNG, GLNG, APLNG

*have experienced significant escalations, delays and multiple executive restructures

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 So what are the most cited causes of project failure?

 Poor Planning Too heavily influenced by political need, cognitive bias, hidden hands

 Poor Governance Inadequate capacity, capability, oversight & decision making to get things done

 Poor Risk Management Inadequate delivery systems in play to control all matters of performance & risk / traditional risk approaches are too dependant on “predicting” risks / the failure to adequately address uncertainty

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the demand for global infrastructure #2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and therefore more risky

#3 Complex projects fail at an abnormally high rate #4 Poor risk & uncertainty management is believed to be one of the three leading causes of complex projects failing

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 So why all the hoopla about “uncertainty”?

*DeMeyer, Loch, Pich 2002

Four Degrees * Rational Foreseeable Unforeseeable Chaos of Project Uncertainty Variability Variability Variability

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Lower Moderate Higher Extreme Complexity & Risk

Relative Nature of Weather Economic Trends, Wicked Risks, War, Disaster, Risk & Uncertainty Patterns, Labour Political Shifts Black Swans, Civil Unrest Availability Unknown- Unknowns Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The limitations of traditional risk project risk management

Four Degrees Rational Foreseeable Unforeseeable Chaos of Project Variability Variability Variability Uncertainty

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Lower Moderate Higher Extreme Complexity & Risk

The relationship Predictability Uncertainty between Uncertainty & Predictability

Can anybody spot the issue at hand for traditional project risk management methodologies?

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Traditional risk management approaches rely heavily on “predicting” risks in order to control them

 Traditional risk management approaches tend to follow a systematic “Identify, Quantify & Control” approach to ISO 31000 controlling material project risks

PMI Risk

Prince2 Risk

APM Risk

PRAM

RAMP

COSO

Etc.

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The limitations of the traditional “predict & process” project risk method

Four degrees of Project Rational Foreseeable Unforeseeable Chaos Uncertainty Variability Variability Variability

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Complexity & Risk Lower Moderate Higher Extreme

The relationship between Uncertainty & Predictability Uncertainty Predictability

The potential of Traditional Risk Traditional Risk Uncertainty Management vs. Management Management Uncertainty Management Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Learning Points

#5 As environmental uncertainty increases, predictability decreases and so to the effectual potential of traditional project risk management approaches

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 This learning is not new…

The Keynesian Argument The Cognitive Bias Argument As uncertainty increases the ability to Cognitive bias’s impede one’s ability to proactively identify risks, within sufficient identify material risks as we only see what we time and context to be controlled reduces are trained to see and tend to ignore all else

Systematic risk forecasting techniques have limited Heuristics involve mental shortcuts which provide swift 1921 potential in complex economic environments due to estimates about the possibility of uncertain the significant presence of uncertainty. Treatise 1972 occurrences. Heuristics often introduce "severe and on Probability - John Maynard Keynes systematic errors“ due to cognitive bias’s Heuristics & Cognitive Bias’s –Tversky & Complex planning environments bear those “wicked Kahneman 1973 risks” which simply can not be forecast before hand. Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning - Rittel & Webber Planning is heavily influenced by cognitive bias’s. That is, 1979 planning officers only identify what they are trained to Within each complex project lies a broad range of see. The Planning Fallacy – Tversky & “unknown-unknowns” which can not be planned for Kahneman but must still be controlled Managing the 2006 Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects - In an age of ever increasing complexity, known bias DeMeyer, Loch & Pich and escalated uncertainty; “common practice project 2011 risk management is a bankrupt concept!” Risk forecasting systems are bias coping mechanisms How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk: designed specifically to address “known risks”. They Why Uncertainty Management can be a Much support a flawed premise that “we can know all”. Better Approach than Risk Management – 2007 Black Swans, the impact of the highly Ward & Chapman improbableMaterial - Nassim CourtesyTaleb of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the demand for global infrastructure #2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and therefore more risky #3 Complex projects fail at an abnormally high rate #4 Poor risk & uncertainty management is believed to be one of the three leading causes of complex projects failing #5 As environmental uncertainty increases, predictability decreases and so to the effectual potential of traditional project risk management approaches

#6 There is almost 100 years of “prize winning” theory telling us that predictive risk forecasting techniques are effectually limited

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 A reminder of the issue at hand!

 Almost every globally accepted project risk management standard advocates for a predictive, forecasting approach to controlling risks in complex-uncertain project environments, ISO 31000 despite almost 100 years of risk theory telling us otherwise PMI Risk

Prince2 Risk

APM Risk

PRAM

RAMP

COSO

Etc.

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Ok so what now?

Projects need to move beyond…

Traditional project risk management: the art of systematically identifying, quantifying and controlling material risks and become more inclusive of…

Project Uncertainty Management; the art of actively seeking out, maturing and integrating those sources of project uncertainty known to create material risks

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Understanding the importance of maturing the risk management approach proportional to degree of uncertainty

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Complexity & Risk Lower Governance

Can anybody remember the three most cited sources of project failure?

Systems Planning

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Lower - Complexity & Risk Moderate

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Moderate - Complexity & Risk Higher

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Relative Project Complexity & Risk Higher - Extreme

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The evolution of project risk management relative to uncertainty

Certainty vs. Uncertainty Ratio

Project Uncertainty Management

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The “end-in-mind” for project risk management in complex-uncertain environments

The need to establish a capable decision making framework to provide oversight of all matters of project- wide performance & risk

The need to manage a project within The need to embed clearly defined and owner approved risk a positive and project-wide culture tolerances which promotes both greater risk accountability and awareness

The need to proactively mitigate risks through robust upfront planning; including estimations, designs and contingencies The need to independently test and validate critical project controls, performance indicators, forecasts, estimations and data The need to enable effective project systems which may deliver the required outcomes, whilst also proactively identifying & controlling the associated risks

If you are going to attempt to enable a comprehensive project risk management approach, then at some level all six of these uncertainty areas will need to be matured as most project risks are borne from one or more of these areas being @risk Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 The Future of Project Risk Reporting?

Monte Carlo, Risk Register Uncertainty Heat Map & Heat Map (aka assessing our project’s exposure to (aka assessing our project’s exposure to unpredictable risks) predictable risks)

Our Project Is @ Risk!

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Learning Points

#7 As environmental uncertainty increases so too should the maturity of the project risk management approach

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 My challenge to you…test your own project risk management potential!

1) Assess your degree of environmental uncertainty

2) Assess your project risk management maturity

3) “Mature & integrate” those areas of uncertainty which are at risk!

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Closing thought

Our challenge lies not in finding new ways of thinking but rather; changing the old ways of thinking

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Research Biography

Warren is a qualified Engineer and Project Professional who advises Project Stakeholders in the enablement of effective governance, risk and assurance practices within complex- uncertain project environments.

Warren is currently engaged in a higher degree in research (PHD) on Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, within the Queensland University of Technology’s Engineering & Science faculty. The proposed research aims to deliver an industry tested and quantified view of how to achieve a state of higher risk management effectiveness in a major project environment. In particular, we are seeking to demonstrate the relationships, criticality and inter-dependence of such risk management enablers as programme-wide governance, risk appetite, systems, culture, assurance and planning.

Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016 Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar 54 Thanks to our Sponsors

and thank you for attending! Please join us for drinks and nibbles.

April Brisbane Chapter Event April Gold Coast Chapter Meeting Rod Snowden 26th April 2016 27th April 2016 Venue TBC Southport Yacht Club – 5:45-8:30pm 55