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Deloitte Africa Automotive Insights Navigating the African Automotive Deloitte Africa Automotive Insights Navigating the African Automotive Sector: Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria “Due to the rise of income levels in many African countries and the emergence of a middle class, Deloitte regards the continent as the final frontier for the global automotive industry. Given Africa’s population size and its positive economic outlook, automotive companies will be able to gain a competitive advantage by adopting a medium- to long-term view towards the continent.” Dr Martyn Davies Africa Automotive Leader Deloitte Africa Dr. Thomas Schiller Europe, Middle East & Africa Automotive Leader Deloitte Introduction Foreword 03 A snapshot of the automotive sector in Africa 04 The automotive sector in Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria 06 Ethiopia 09 Kenya 19 Nigeria 29 A comparative look at Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria 41 Our take on navigating the African automotive sector 42 Methodology 46 Bibliography 47 Contacts 49 Research team 49 01 02 Deloitte Africa Automotive Insights | Foreword Foreword The Deloitte Global Automotive Team research to shed light on the status quo of Dr Martyn Davies has a leading presence in the automotive the automotive sector with the question Africa Automotive Leader industry across the world, providing in mind of which market(s), barring Deloitte Africa services to 80% of the Fortune 500 South Africa – an already relatively well- automotive companies. With global developed autos market in the region – will Dr Thomas Schiller capabilities and expertise, Deloitte be the next frontier for growth for the Europe, Middle East & Africa supports clients across the automotive automotive industry, with a lens on three Automotive Leader industry, including original equipment countries, namely Ethiopia, Kenya and Deloitte manufacturers (OEMs), suppliers, Nigeria. The automotive industry in each dealers, vehicle finance providers and of these countries is at a different level of the aftermarket – to navigate the rapidly development but in each holds substantial evolving automotive landscape globally. potential in the long term. While Africa’s automotive market is still In a series of reports, Deloitte will monitor underdeveloped, Deloitte recognises the the development of the automotive potential of the automotive industry in industry on the continent and will provide Africa and foresees room for growth across insights into the industry. Deloitte is excited the automotive value chain including to leverage its global automotive expertise vehicle sales, aftersales, vehicle assembly and to collaborate with automotive and production. industry stakeholders to develop solutions for what is the final frontier for Deloitte regards the continent as the final automotive’s growth. frontier for the global automotive industry. This is as per capita income levels continue to rise, financial markets develop and cars become more accessible for a greater share of the population. Entering these largely uncharted automotive territories in Africa requires a mix of market insights, patience and a medium- to long-term strategy. Deloitte undertook in-market 03 Deloitte Africa Automotive Insights | A snapshot of the automotive sector in Africa A snapshot of the automotive sector in Africa Africa’s automotive market1 is relatively small. In 2014, there were just over 42.5 million registered vehicles in use in Africa – a continent of approximately one billion people. As a result, the motorisation rate on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of countries under review (Ethiopia, Kenya, the continent is only 44 vehicles per 3.6% on the continent. While coming from Nigeria) at least 8 out of 10 imported 1 000 inhabitants. This is far below the a low base and although slightly higher vehicles are used vehicles. global average of 180 vehicles per than the global average of 3.5%, total sales 1 000 inhabitants, and lower than other growth in Africa was significantly slower This is a common trend across the region developing regions such as Latin America than other emerging regions such as Asia given that Africa imports four times more (176) and Developing Asia, Oceania and and the Middle East (8.9%), and Latin automotive products than it exports, with the Middle East (79).2 America (4.2%). automotive imports worth US$48 billion in 2014 and exports worth only US$11 billion In 2015, approximately 1.55 million new Both the lower motorisation rate to date that year. Key sources of used vehicles are vehicles were sold or registered across and new vehicle sales and registrations the United States (US), Europe and Japan. Africa.3 South Africa, Egypt, Algeria and reflect the still relatively low purchasing The Middle East for example serves as a Morocco – all countries with established power of African consumers relative notable transit route for vehicles into and rapidly developing automotive to their emerging market peers. More East Africa. industries – together accounted for more importantly, the sizeable latent potential of than 80% of total new vehicle sales in the continent’s automotive market in the Imports of vehicles grew rapidly from 2015. Based on recent sales trends, some long term.5 2003 onwards, coinciding with GDP per sources estimate that Africa’s passenger capita growth and a growing middle class vehicle sales could reach up to 10 million Due to limited disposable income and on the continent. This was supported by units per annum within the next 15 years.4 the high cost of new vehicles, second- high commodity prices at the time. South hand vehicles dominate the continent’s Africa dominates automotive trade on the Between 2005 and 2015, registrations automotive retail sector. These are mainly continent, accounting for three-quarters and sales of new vehicles (passenger and imported. Based on in-market research, of Africa’s automotive exports and 15% of commercial combined) increased by a Deloitte estimates that in the three African imports in 2014.6 1This is inclusive of commercial and passenger vehicles, and excludes motorbikes. 2OICA, 2016” 3OICA, 2016” 4Black & McLennan, 2015” 5OICA, 2016” 6UNCTAD, 2016” 04 Deloitte Africa Automotive Insights | A snapshot of the automotive sector in Africa South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria continent is mainly a retail dominated economies, and could act as a catalyst have sizeable automotive assembly and automotive market. A common trend for industrialisation and economic manufacturing sectors. Despite these thus is that a small share of new vehicles diversification,8 this is at a lesser stage of relatively well established automotive competes against a strong influx of development. As a result the sector has hubs in South Africa and countries in second-hand vehicle imports. been an attractive option for policymakers North Africa, fewer than 900 000 seeking to boost manufacturing vehicles were produced on the continent Even though domestic vehicle employment, diversify export revenue accounting for just over 0.9% of global production and assembly may have sources and ultimately industrialise production in 2015.7 The rest of the substantial multiplier effects for African their economies. Vehicles in use in Africa, 2014 Annual vehicle registrations in Africa, 2005-2015 18.1% 1800 Rest of Africa 22% South Africa 1600 1400 2.1% 1200 Ivory Coast 2.9% 1000 Kenya 3.3% 800 Tunisia 42.5 Million Vehicles in use 600 4.3% 12.1% Congo Algeria 400 200 6.1% Number of vehicles (‘000) Libya 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8% 12.1% Morocco Egypt 8.4% Nigeria Passenger vehicles Commercial vehicles Source: OICA, 2016 Source: OICA, 2016 77OICA, 2016 8For example, research conducted shows that every automotive manufacturing job creates up to seven additional jobs, reflecting the strong multiplier effect of the industry (Centre for Automotive Research, 2015). Economies with established automotive sectors also tend to be more economically complex, where economic complexity is the “measure of knowledge in a society that gets translated into the product it makes”, and therefore also more prosperous (Centre for International Development, 2016). 05 Deloitte Africa Automotive Insights | The automotive sector in Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria The automotive sector in Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria Deloitte undertook in-market research to shed light on the status quo of the automotive sector with the question in mind of which market(s), barring some of the more developed automotive markets in Africa as noted in the previous section, will be the next frontier for growth for the automotive industry. Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria were identified for the research based on the following reasons: Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria Ethiopia was Africa’s fastest growing Kenya is the largest and wealthiest Nigeria, as Africa’s largest economy, economy in 2015 and has the continent’s economy in East Africa and plays an presents a sizeable untapped automotive second largest population. Ethiopia’s important regional role. Kenya’s sizeable market with the continent’s largest automotive potential is underpinned by the middle class, progressive business population and relatively high GDP state-driven economy and a government environment, regional market access and per capita. For this reason, Nigeria has that is geared toward industrialisation, history of automotive assembly positions generated the most interest among which makes it the African economy that is the country well as a potential East African automotive players as a future market in most similar and arguably likely to replicate automotive hub. Africa. Nigeria also
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