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DESIGNATED HITTERS AND SUBESQUENT TEAM SCORING PERFORMANCE IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL A RESEARCH PAPER SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE MASTER OF SCIENCE BY SARAH E. CHO DR. HOLMES FINCH – ADVISOR BALL STATE UNIVERSITY MUNCIE, INDIANA JULY 2020 2 ABSTRACT RESEARCH PAPER: Designated Hitters and Subsequent Team Scoring Performance in Major League Baseball STUDENT: Sarah E. Cho DEGREE: Master of Science COLLEGE: Teachers College DATE: July 2020 PAGES: 27 The Designated Hitter (DH) rule in Major League Baseball (MLB) is a topic of great debate. In the National League (NL), all players take a turn at bat. However, in the American League (AL), a DH usually bats for the pitcher. MLB pitchers typically do not have strong batting averages. The DH rule was created to increase a team’s offense. This study looked at whether there is an apparent difference between the AL and the NL. In theory, a DH will lead to more hits, more runs, and therefore a higher scoring game. This study looked at the average runs per game and total home runs for the AL and NL during the 1998 through 2018 regular seasons. Since the assumptions of parametric multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) were not met, a nonparametric analysis was used. The permutation test for multivariate means results showed an apparent difference between the two leagues (p < .05). A quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) was used as a follow up test and showed home runs as the variable driving the difference between the two leagues. Therefore, the AL has better scoring performance than the NL. Future studies should compare other statistics between the two leagues during the regular seasons and outside of the regular seasons. Keywords: designated hitter, Major League Baseball, nonparametric analysis, pitcher 3 Acknowledgements I would like to express my deep gratitude to Dr. Holmes Finch for his valuable and constructive suggestions during the planning and development of this research paper. His willingness to give his time so generously and encouragement has been very much appreciated. I would like to extend my thanks to the professors I had throughout my coursework during the master’s degree in Quantitative Psychology program: Dr. Jocelyn Bolin, Dr. Gregory Marchant, Dr. Kenneth McCoy, and Dr. Lu Wang. Finally, I wish to thank my mother for helping me discover this program and for her support throughout my study. 4 Designated Hitters and Subsequent Team Scoring Performance in Major League Baseball According to Cronin (2016), “Ron Blomberg stepped into the batter’s box on April 6, 1973, as the major leagues’ first Designated Hitter (DH) … That first DH trip to the plate was the realization of a revolutionary baseball concept.” Blomberg’s plate appearance resulted from decades of debate. Fast forward to Major League Baseball (MLB) today. The American League (AL) utilizes the DH rule, while the National League (NL) has yet to adopt the DH rule. Forty- seven years later, the DH rule is one of the most debated rule changes in MLB history. The American League and National League met in Chicago on January 11, 1973, where the owners voted to allow the AL to put the designated hitter rule into practice (History.com, 2009). At the time, the AL lagged the NL in both scoring and attendance. Instantaneously, baseball purists denounced the DH rule, arguing it took away from the major leagues’ integrity. According to the Major League Baseball Rule Book (MLB, 2018), Rule 5.11, the Designated Hitter Rule provides a hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and all subsequent pitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) in the game. The DH rule use varies when it comes to the World Series, exhibition games, and All-Star games. What started out as a three-year experiment, changed the landscape of Major League Baseball forever. American League owners put the designated hitter rule in place for three reasons: 1. to pump up the offense; 2. to give aging sluggers the chance to shine for a few more years; 3. to increase attendance (Merron, 2003). The DH rule accomplished all three missions. In 1972, the year before the DH rule was instituted, the AL totaled 1,175 home runs; in 1973, the AL totaled 1,552 home runs. Using data sourced from the Lahman database (2018), the average runs per game for both leagues from 1998-2018 were calculated. The AL had an average R/G of 4.72, while the NL had an average R/G of 4.48 from 1998-2018. The total home runs for both leagues 5 from 2013-2018 were calculated. 2013 is when each league started consisting of fifteen teams. The AL totaled 16,322 home runs, while the NL totaled 14,734 home runs from 2013-2018. Rules in the American League and the National League are essentially identical, except for the designated hitter rule. The two leagues have gotten more similar over the years with strike zones standardized by the merging of umpiring staffs and the NL getting rid of their artificial- turf parks. Since the two leagues are more alike than different, they create an opportune field on which to figure out if the DH rule makes a difference in the two leagues. According to Mike Arbuckle, the Kansas City Royals’ senior advisor, “It still comes down to the individual players’ skills, but you have to take a look at it. With the overall numbers out there, you have to weigh that” (Schwarz, 2009). Designated hitters deepen lineups and affect individual statistics. Runs per game can exhibit how a certain team is performing. In 2009, the AL teams scored an average of 4.8 R/G and called for fewer of the one-run strategies of the NL, where the teams scored an average of 4.4 R/G (Schwarz, 2009). Until the DH rule is rid of or instituted in the NL as well, pros and cons of the rule will continue to circulate. Typically, designated hitters land on the upper end of the salary scale. Aside from money, some players who have played in both leagues prefer the National League. NL games move along quicker than AL games due to the almost automatic out in the ninth inning (Parker, 1998). However, Jim Thome, who became a full-time DH in 2006 for the Chicago White Sox, only had positive remarks about designated hitters. Thome said, “Becoming a DH cut down on the pounding … You have to be mentally tough to understand it. There’s a lot of different ways you can help … studying pitchers. It’s given me the opportunity to play five or six more years” (Merrill, 2011). On the other hand, Nomar Garciaparra does not share Thome’s enthusiasm for the DH. In 2009, Garciaparra was the Oakland Athletics DH for 18 games. 6 Garciaparra said, “I did it but I wasn’t a big fan … I put my glove out on the dugout steps even though I knew I wasn’t playing” (Merrill, 2011). MLB players will always have varying opinions on the DH rule. Quicker games, more strategy, no need for more offense, and the reduction of hit batsmen are some of the reasons eliminating the DH rule would be good. A game becomes more interesting when a manager must make more decisions. Having a pitcher come to bat forces more decisions. If the pitcher is hitting, he is less inclined to knock down a hitter because the retaliation will be aimed directly at him when he bats. Tony La Russa, former manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland Athletics, and Chicago White Sox, and former AL player said, “ I think there should be the same rule for both (leagues), and I’d vote for cutting the DH … I think you see more of the total game (in the NL)” (USA Today, 2004). At the same time, the fans’ love for offense, pitchers striking out, and star power are some of the reasons eliminating the DH rule will not work. As of 2004, AL teams scored 5.0 runs a game over the last five years compared with 4.8 in the senior circuit (NL) (USA Today, 2004). In line with Thome, Harold Baines, a six- time All-Star said, “I love the rule … It has prolonged a lot of great players’ careers and allowed some generations (of fans) to see them play that probably wouldn’t have seen them if the DH wasn’t here” (USA Today, 2004). Baines also mentioned the DH rule added 10 years to his career. According to MLB’s official historian, John Thorn, “As a historian, I should be expected to embrace pitchers as batters, but this tradition has outlived its usefulness” (MLB Network, 2013). Thorn supports the designated hitter rule. David Ortiz, a DH primarily for the Boston Red Sox said, “He’s a .312 career hitter. When you’re a .312 career hitter at this level, that means you pretty much got everything done,” regarding Edgar Martinez, who spent his entire MLB career 7 with the Seattle Mariners (MLB Network, 2013). Martinez was elected into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019 while having played 68.3% of his career games as a DH, the highest among other Hall of Fame inductees (Harrigan, 2020). Aside from batting statistics increasing, the DH rule had an unintended effect on pitching. The designated hitter position allowed “Junior Circuit (AL) pitchers to go more innings in games and control their own destinies. However, the increased offensive output continued to force the ERAs higher” (McKelvey, 2004).
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