Emissions Reductions Targets 2.0 Establishing Targets

Central Lincolnshire Authorities

Lead: Marina Central Lincolnshire Local Plan: Climate Change Evidence Base

Draft

Task C - Carbon Reduction Targets

Feb 2021 | Rev D

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 1 Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base Task C

Task A: Position Task B: Assessment Task C: Carbon Carbon reduction targets statement of spatial strategy reduction targets

Task E: Infrastructure Task F: Monitoring Task G: Feasibility requirements Framework Assessment

Task H: Cost Task J: Decentralised Task I: Offsetting Implications energy networks

This section assesses the required carbon reduction targets for the built Task K: Embodied environment in the region by using a top down approach based on Task L: Peat Soil Energy Mapping recommendations from the IPCC, the Committee on Climate Change, the Tyndall Centre and forecast GHG emissions for the region.

We then use a bottom up analysis to assess the impact of potential policy measures on meeting these carbon reduction targets. Task M: Stakeholder engagement

We look at the role of the local plan in reaching the required targets for different sectors and recommend policies to support them.

Policies

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 2 Contents Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

1.0 Executive summary 4 4.0 Conclusion 27

2.0 Establishing carbon reduction targets 5 References 28

2.1 Global Carbon Reduction Target 6

2.2 Translating global targets to the national level 7 Appendices 29

2.3 Zero carbon pathway for the UK: CCC analysis 8 Appendix A A look at greenhouse gas emissions 30

2.4 Translating nation targets to the local level 9 Appendix B Pathways assumptions comparison by sector 31

2.5 Zero carbon pathway for Central Lincolnshire: SCATTER analysis 10

2.6 Zero carbon pathway for Central Lincolnshire: Etude analysis 11

2.7 Summary of emissions targets required 12

3.0 Implications for the Local Plan 13

3.1 Implications for the local plan 14

3.2 The future of electricity generation 15

3.3 How much renewable energy? 16

3.4 The electricity grid 17

3.5 Managing electrical demand 18

3.6 Existing buildings 19

3.7 New buildings 20

3.8 Overheating in buildings 21

3.9 Transport 22

3.10 Land-use 23

3.11 Forestry and agriculture 24

3.12 F-gases 25

3.13 Other sectors 26

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 3 1.0 Executive summary Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Emissions reductions requirements Ensure all new buildings are zero carbon

1.1.1 Our review of existing carbon budgets and models, together with our own analysis for 1.1.4 New buildings from 2020 must be designed to be net zero carbon: ultra-low energy Central Lincolnshire, shows common themes and conclusions emerging to inform the (extremely energy efficient with space heating requirements of 15-20 kWh/m2/yr); heated by required GHG reduction targets required for the region. low-carbon heat – e.g. heat pumps (no more gas boilers) and; generate renewable energy to match their annual energy demand. To not do this, we are simply adding to the retrofit • Central Lincolnshire must reach net zero carbon GHG emissions by 2041 from a science burden of the future and unnecessarily eating into a very finite carbon budget. based approach which is aligned with the Paris agreement, or from a purely legal standpoint, by 2050 (Climate Change Act 2008). Existing buildings

• Central Lincolnshire must emit no more than 9 MtCO2 between 2020 and 2100 (Tyndall 1.1.5 There are upwards of 130,000 dwellings in Central Lincolnshire, almost all of which will Centre Tyndall Centre’s Carbon Budgets for Central Lincolnshire) from energy use need to undergo deep retrofits to make them zero carbon. The rate at which these need to (excluding aviation and cement production). happen is fast and almost all will need to be undertaken in the 2020s if we are to stay within carbon budgets. We will need to see similar results in the non-domestic sector. • If emissions continue at 2017 levels, the entire carbon budget for the area would be used within 7 years (from 2020), i.e. by 2027. 1.1.6 While the local plan does not have a great deal of ability to influence carbon reduction in existing buildings, conservation policies should be reviewed for compatibility with the • Emissions cuts must average -13.4% per year to deliver a Paris aligned carbon budget. zero carbon agenda. • The sectors of power generation, buildings and transport should target zero greenhouse gas emissions and must in order to compensate for those that cannot. Transport

• A means of removing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere will be required. The zero 1.1.7 Transport is one of the biggest carbon emitting sectors, and emissions are remaining carbon pathways we have looked at have shown that there will be residual GHG emissions fairly static. Zero carbon vehicle technology is developing at a very fast pace, with technical remaining that cannot be abated. Removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere issues such as range and battery charging being rapidly addressed by the market. will be required to bring the balance of GHG emissions to net zero. Infrastructure issues, such as places to charge electric vehicles should be addressed in the local plan. Maximise renewable energy 1.1.8 Additionally, the local plan should facilitate a move away from car journeys towards 1.1.2 Our analysis concludes that Central Lincolnshire should plan to install enough journeys on foot, bicycle or public transport. renewable energy to provide for at least 70% of its energy needs through onshore wind, photovoltaics or other forms of renewable energy. This figure reflects Central Lincolnshire’s Land-use relative ability to generate renewable energy, and has been assessed within the context of 1.1.9 Carbon sequestration is an imperative element of our zero carbon pathway. The local the UK’s onshore renewable energy generation requirement. The remaining 30% of Central plan should facilitate land-based carbon sequestration through allocation of land for the Lincolnshire’s renewable energy demands can be imported, while still leaving enough for planting of diverse species woodland or agroforestry projects, and identification of land for more energy intense regions and cities. protection – particularly that with carbon rich soils and biodiversity. 1.1.3 We recommend that the local plan seeks to identify sites for the installation of on- Policies shore wind and photovoltaic installations. As an indication this should be in the region of 510 MW solar and 340 MW of onshore wind capacity. 1.1.10 The findings from the analysis within this chapter, and the remaining chapters in this evidence base culminate in suggested policies for the new local plan to include.

The policies are laid out in a separate report forming part of this evidence base – “Recommended policies”.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 4 Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

Task C Emissions reductions targets 2.0 Establishing targets

A look at required emissions reductions targets for Central Lincolnshire, through deriving targets from a global and national standpoint.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 5 2.1 Global Carbon Reduction Targets Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

There is a climate emergency Global level 2.1.1 There is overwhelming scientific consensus that significant climate change is happening. This is evidenced in the latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on 900,000 10-14 Climate Change (IPCC AR5). The IPCC special report published in 2018 on the impacts of CO2 global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. It highlights the urgency for action and MtCO2 years has generated a high level of interest and concern in society as a whole. The number of years it 2.2.2 A business-as-usual trajectory would lead to an expected 4 - 5°C increase in global Estimation of remaining global average temperature above pre-industrial levels by 2100 with more warming expected carbon budget for staying well would take to consume our entire afterwards. below 2C rise. global carbon budget The Paris Agreement (2015) at current global emissions rates for a 2.2.3 International negotiations on climate change are governed through the United Nations good chance of Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The most recent negotiations limiting temperature concluded with the Paris Agreement in December 2015. This Agreement reaffirms global rises to below 2C. ambition to limit temperature rises to below 2°C and binds every country to produce national plans to reduce emissions. The agreement also contains a further collective aspirational goal to reduce emissions in line with keeping the temperature increase to 1.5°C.

Global carbon budgets

2.2.4 The concept of carbon budgets is an important one. The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5 °C has estimated the quantity of CO2 that can be emitted globally and still be consistent with keeping global temperatures well below 2 °C 4-5 C the temperature with an outside chance of stabilising at 1.5 °C. The report gives different budgets for rise we are likely to see if different temperature rises and probabilities. we continue on a business 2.2.5 The Tyndall Centre Carbon Budgets reports[30] (which we will refer to throughout this as usual path report) has selected from the IPPC report a global budget figure of 900,000 MtCO2 as the basis of their work. This, they indicate, is the maximum allowable budget to stay within an 1.5-2C The maximum outside chance of staying within a 2C temperature rise. This budget assumes no reliance on temperature rise above pre- carbon removal technologies. industrial levels the IPCC 2.2.6 Keeping global warming to below 1.5°C with at least 66% probability corresponds to recommends. less than 10-14 years at current global emissions rates. This increases to 14-18 years for a 50% probability [01]. 1C The temperature rise already created

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 6 2.2 Translating global targets to the national level Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

National commitment

2.2.1 The UK has binding targets to reduce CO2 emissions through the Kyoto Protocol and is The UK Government has committed in June 2019 to Net Zero a signatory of the Paris Agreement. emissions by 2050

2.2.2 The UK’s national commitment is set through The Climate Change Act 2008 – which legislates that the UK carbon account for 2050 must be 100% lower than 1990 levels – i.e. the UK must be net zero carbon by 2050. Previously requiring an 80% reduction in carbon 100% UK level emissions, the Act was was amended in June 2019 following the publication by the Committee on Climate Change of its ‘Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Stopping Global Warming’ in May of the same year. The recommendation was based on the latest scientific evidence presented by the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming, 2018. The Government adopted the recommendation of this report and the Climate Change Act was amended accordingly. Reduction in CO2 emissions the UK The Committee on Climate Change government is legally required to 2.2.3 The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is an independent body formed to advise achieve by 2050 the UK government on tackling and preparing for Climate Change. over 1990 levels. 2.2.4 In 2019 the CCC published the report “Net Zero: The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming” [01]. In addition to recommending a new emissions target for the UK: net zero greenhouse gases by 2050 (see above) the report also set out an ambitious set of measures required to meet the zero-carbon target. Global carbon budgets allocation to the UK, Tyndall Centre 2.2.5 The Committee on Climate Change also advises government on carbon budgets. The Climate Change Act requires the government to set 5-year carbon budgets. The CCC Global CO2 budget to stay 900,000 GtCO2 advises what the carbon budgets should be, and provides progress reports against them well below 2C (note – these carbon budgets are not comparable to the amount of carbon actually emitted Cement by the UK as they include allowances under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). 840,000 GtCO2 production Deforestation The carbon budget for the UK 3,737 GtCO2 2.2.6 To help understand the magnitude and pace of carbon reductions required, the IPCC UK budget Global overheads not Special Report 2018 estimates the amount of carbon we can emit globally to stay within included in the UK’s carbon certain temperature rises. Following this, the Tyndall Centre Carbon Budgets reports UK portion of remaining budget figure. The budget estimate the carbon budget for the UK (allowing for the equity principle from the Paris global carbon budget for would need to decrease if staying within 1.5ºC Agreement) to be 3,757 MtCO2. there was an increase in temperature rise global cement production Further Reading or deforestation • Accounting for carbon – comparison of methodologies (Task A – Position Statement) Figure 2.1: Tyndall Centre estimation of remaining UK carbon budget to stay within 2C temperature rise. Aviation and Shipping included in UK budget. Image not to scale.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 7 2.3 Zero Carbon Pathway for the UK: CCC Analysis Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

Achieving Net Zero Carbon by 2050

2.3.1 The Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC) ”Net-Zero” report[01] provides an in- depth analysis of what is required of the UK to meet its zero carbon target (legislated by the Climate Change Act). The analysis spans different sectors: buildings; industry; UK level power; transport; aviation & shipping; agriculture & land-use; waste; f-gases and greenhouse gas removals. The report illustrates the scale of action that is required to achieve the target. CCC analysis 2.3.2 Key measures Scale: • 100% low carbon electricity by 2050. Whole of UK • Ultra-efficient new homes and non-domestic buildings

• Low carbon heat to all but the most difficult to treat buildings. GHG emissions • Ambitious programme of retrofit of existing buildings. Figure 2.3.1 . Comparison of emissions in 1990, 2017 and what they included • Complete electrification of small vehicles (100% of new sales by 2025). would need to be based on the original 80% reduction in emissions. • CCC. Graph shows the power, industry and waste sectors have already Large reduction in waste, zero biodegradable waste to landfill and CO2 NOx shown big reductions. Aviation emissions have increased. Transport, • Significant afforestation and restoration of land, including peatland. buildings, F-gases have largely remained constant. • Greenhouse gas removals will be required to achieve net zero carbon. Compliance with zero carbon target NH4 F-gases

2.3.3 The CCC analysis of “Further Ambition” scenarios, has identified pathways across different sectors that combined achieve a 89% reduction in GHG emissions by Emissions sources 2050, before greenhouse gas removals. Included 2.3.4 The report lists some “speculative” measures required which may help to get closer to a 100% reduction. ✓ Power ✓ Buildings Compliance with carbon budgets target Kevin Anderson, John F. ✓ Broderick & Isak Stoddard Transport 2.3.5 The CCC “Net Zero” analysis does not look at cumulative emissions or carbon ✓ Waste how the mitigation plans budgets. However, it is the CCC that sets the recommended levels of the UK government’s carbon budgets required by the Climate Change Act. The CCC also ✓ Industry reports against the UK’s progress in achieving them. compliant pathways, Figure 2.3.2 - Remaining emissions in the “Further Ambition” scenario ✓ Cement production by sector and by gas, Committee on Climate Change. Graph shows Further Reading ✓ Forestry & Land-Use 10.1080/14693062.2020.1 aviation and agriculture are likely to be the dominant GHG emitters in • “Further ambition” measures assumed by CCC for “net-zero”. See Appendix 2.2. 2020. ✗ Peatlands ✓ Aviation and Shipping • UK carbon budgets – section 2.2.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 8 2.4 Translating national targets to the local level Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Tyndall Carbon Budget Reports Local carbon budgets allocation within the UK, Tyndall Centre 2.4.1 Tyndall Carbon Budget Reports [30] provide UK local authority areas with budgets for energy related CO2 emissions from 2020-2100. Aligned with the Paris Agreement, Global CO2 budget to stay 900,000 MtCO2 they are informed by the latest science on climate change and carbon budget setting. well below 2C

2.4.2 Figure 2.4.1 illustrates how the carbon budget for Central Lincolnshire has been Cement Deforest- 840,000 MtCO2 derived from the global carbon budget. The UK’s carbon budget has been derived using production ation Tyndall Centre the equity principle – developed countries have been given a smaller portion of the Carbon Budgets budget compared with developing countries (this is in line with the Paris Agreement). 3,737 MtCO2 UK budget Scale: 2.4.3 The carbon budget and required reduction pathway for Central Lincolnshire is illustrated in Figure 2.42. In summary, the report recommends: Aviation + Central Lincs 2,239 MtCO2 Shipping • Central Lincolnshire stays within a maximum cumulative CO2 emissions budget of 9 GHG emissions million tonnes (MtCO2) for the period 2020-2100. 9 MtCO2 included C. Lincs. • If emissions continue at 2017 levels, the entire carbon budget for the area would be

used within 7 years (from 2020), i.e. by 2027. Sources of CO2 emissions excluded from the UK’s budget: CO2 NOx aviation and shipping; cement production, deforestation • Emissions cuts must average -13.4% per year to deliver a Paris aligned carbon budget.

• Reach net zero no later than 2041, at which point 5% of the budget remains. Figure 2.4.1: Tyndall Centre estimation of remaining carbon budget for Central Lincolnshire to stay within 2C temperature rise. Image not • NH4 F-gases Meeting the budget must not rely on carbon offsets. to scale. Comparison with UK carbon budgets

8 5-yearly carbon bud gets 1.60 2.4.4 The Tyndall Centre’s carbon budgets are not comparable with the official UK Emissions sources 7 1.40 governments carbon budgets for a number of different reasons: the UK carbon budgets Included do no apply the equity principle (integral to the Paris Agreement); they include 6 1.20 ✓ Power allowances from the EU emissions trading scheme (and therefore do not reflect actual 5 1.00 carbon emitted by the UK); budgets until 2032 were set on the basis of an 80% reduction ✓ Buildings 4 0.80 in GHG emissions (not 100% as now required). They also include other GHG emissions. ✓ Transport 3 0.60 2.4.5 This report uses the Tyndall Centre carbon budgets for setting targets for Central ✗ 2 0.40 Waste Lincolnshire, as they are a truer reflection of emitted CO2 and BEIS figures can be used 1 0.20 Annual emissions, MtCO2/year ✓ Industry

to directly assess progress. Crucially, the official UK carbon budgets may be too large by yearly carbon budgets, MtCO2 - a factor of at least two to be consistent with a 1.5C temperature rise[04] . 5 0 0.00 ✗ Cement production 2018-202 2 2023-202 7 2028-203 2 2033-203 7 2038-204 2 2043-204 7 ✗ Forestry & Land-Use Further Reading ✗ Peatlands Figure 2.4.2: 5-yearly carbon budgets, annual CO2 emissions and • A look at greenhouse gas emissions – Appendix 1. total remaining carbon budget for Central Lincolnshire’s contribution ✗ Aviation and Shipping • UK Carbon budgets – Section 2.2. to staying within a 1.5C temperature rise. Data source: Tyndall Centre Carbon budgets report.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 9 2.5 Zero Carbon Pathway for Central Lincolnshire: SCATTER Analysis Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

SCATTER Total GHG Emissions from SCATTER tool SCATTER analysis 2.5.1 SCATTER (Setting City Area Targets and Trajectories for Emissions Reduction) is a local authority focussed GHG emissions tool capable of both creating GHG Scale: 1,400,000 emissions inventories (a point-in-time summary of the GHG emissions apportioned Industry and Central Lincolnshire to the local authority area), and the creation of decarbonisation pathways to 2050. 1,200,000 co mmercial The tool can be used by all local authorities, not just cities. 1,000,000 Domestic 2.5.2 Trajectories to zero carbon can be modelled for different sectors: domestic, GHG emissions transport, industry & commercial agriculture and land-use. It is possible to test 800,000 -77% Transport included

varying levels of ambition across 32 different action areas. tCO2 600,000 2.5.3 Key conclusions Waste 400,000 CO2 NOx

• Emissions in Central Lincolnshire were 0.5 MtCO2eq in 2018. 200,000 Agriculture and land • A pathway modelling the maximum level of ambition (within the tool options) has use been selected. In this scenario, 23% of GHG emissions remain in 2050. 0 2018 2050 NH4 F-gases • Industrial and commercial emissions, and land-use and agriculture emissions are shown to be difficult to abate. Figure X: SCATTER’s maximum level of ambition leads to a predicted 77% reduction in GHG emissions. Remaining • This makes it imperative that housing, transport and waste sectors achieve Emissions sources maximum possible reductions. emissions from transport, domestic and waste are 14%, 7% and Included 11% respectively. • Large scale wind, solar and small scale solar will all need to increase. ✓ Power • All new housing to be PassivHaus from 2021. Emissions pathways for Central Lincolnshire, SCATTER 1,400 ✓ Buildings • All buildings heated by low carbon electricity and heat pumps by 2050. Industry and commercial ✓ 1,200 Domestic Transport • 25% reduction in journeys taken Tr anspor t ✓ Waste Compliance with zero carbon target 1,000 Waste ✓ Industry Agriculture and land use 2.5.4 The SCATTER tool has identified pathways across different sectors that 800 ✓ Cement production combined achieve a 77% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. ✓ Forestry & Land-Use 600 ktCO2/yr Compliance with carbon budgets target ✗ Peatlands 400 2.5.5 It is understood that SCATTER is developing a functionality which will allow ✓ Aviation and Shipping local authorities to assess decarbonisation pathways for compliance which compare 200 emissions pathways with the Tyndall Centre’s Carbon budgets. However, comparison is not possible at this time. 0

Further reading 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 32 20 34 20 36 20 38 20 40 20 42 20 44 20 46 20 48 20 50

• Appendix 2.1 - Pathways assumptions comparison by sector. Figure X: GHG emissions pathway for Central Lincolnshire, following maximum ambition across all sectors (Source: SCATTER) Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 10 2.6 Zero Carbon Pathway for Central Lincolnshire: Etude Analysis Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

Achieving Net Zero Carbon by 2050

2.6.1 We have carried out an in-house analysis to estimate current and future CO2

emissions in Central Lincolnshire. Our approach differs from other approaches in that it ) 1400 ₂ Commercial and looks at CO2 only and compares forecast cumulative emissions to Central Lincolnshire’s Industry carbon budget (section 2.4). 1200 Domestic Buildings Key conclusions 1000 Etude analysis

2.6.2 Like other pathways in this analysis, the Etude pathway illustrates that radical 800 Transport Scale: changes to all sectors are required to move towards net zero carbon. 600 Central 2.6.3 This includes: LULUCF (not inc. Lincolnshire 400 agriculture) • net Zero Carbon new buildings as soon as possible. 200 Heavy Industry GHG emissions • existing building stock energy efficiency retrofits by 2032. included

Total annual carbon emissions (ktCO0 • switch from gas heating to low carbon heat by 2032. 2018 -200 • the electrification of all transport by 2032. CO2 NOx

Figure 2.6.1: Latest reported CO2 emissions (2018) for Compliance with Zero Carbon Target Central Lincolnshire.

2.6.4 The cumulative emission reductions demonstrate that near zero carbon emissions 7,000 NH4 F-gases are possible by 2050 provided all combustion of gas and oil are ceased. 6,000 Compliance with Carbon Budgets Target Emissions sources 2.6.5 The analysis shows that compliance with carbon budgets target is only possible if 5,000 the vast majority of decarbonisation in the districts is carried out in the 2020s and early Included 2030s. Any delay beyond 2022 exponentially increases the scale of the challenge. 4,000 ✓ Power Further Reading ✓ Buildings 3,000 • Etude forecast model methodology and assumptions. ✓ Transport 2,000 ✗ Waste ✓ Industry 1,000 ✗ Cement production

0 ✓ Forestry & Land-Use 2018-22 2023-27 2028-32 2033-42 2043-205 0 ✗ Peatlands -1,000 Figure 2.6.2: Indicative emissions reduction required by carbon ✗ Aviation and Shipping budget period in order to stay within carbon budget.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 11 2.7 Summary of emissions targets required Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Required targets

2.7.1 Our review of existing carbon budgets and models, together with our own analysis for Central Lincolnshire, shows common themes and conclusions emerging to inform the required GHG reduction targets required for the region.

• Central Lincolnshire must reach net zero carbon GHG emissions by 2050 (Climate Change Act 2008)

• Central Lincolnshire must emit no more than 9 MtCO2 between 2020 and 2100 (Tyndall Centre Tyndall Centre’s Carbon Budgets for Central Lincolnshire) from energy use (excluding aviation and cement production).

• The sectors of power generation, buildings and transport should target zero greenhouse gas emissions and must in order to compensate for those that cannot.

• A means of removing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere will be required. The zero carbon pathways we have looked at have shown that there will be residual GHG emissions remaining that cannot be abated. Removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will be required to bring the balance of GHG emissions to net zero. Examples within the power of the local plan are discussed in section 3.11). Figure 2.7.1: Graph shows different GHG emissions and how they reduce over time. CO2 Section 3.0 looks at how the local plan can facilitate the above emissions reductions targets from fossil fuels and industry is the only GHG that is likely to see a large reduction. Other being achieved. GHGs, including methane and nitrous oxide and difficult to abate, and reduce by a small amount. Residual emissions remain for all GHG gases, and are partially offset by greenhouse gas removals. Source: Committee on Climate Change Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Climate Change.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 12 Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

Task C Emissions reductions targets 3.0 Implications for the local plan

A sector by sector look at what the local plan can do to help achieve the emissions reductions required for the region.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 13 3.1 Implications for the local plan Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Translating targets to the local plan

3.1.1 The following pages take a closer look at the sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Central Lincolnshire, by sector - the chart on the rights shows the relative emissions of each sector. We seek to understand:

- what is required within Central Lincolnshire to make each sector zero carbon

- how quickly it needs to happen

- how the local plan may facilitate this transition.

The sectors considered are aligned with the categories used by the Committee on Climate Change.

Existing emissions vs new emissions

3.1.2 The local plan is concerned mainly with guiding new development. Therefore it has a very strong ability to influence future emissions associated with new development – particularly emissions from new buildings. It also has the ability to influence the delivery of infrastructure required for a zero carbon future, land-use, and future transport emissions.

3.1.3 The local plan’s influence over existing emissions is more limited, or indirect. The biggest impact the local plan can have on existing emissions is facilitating new renewable energy generation – as this will help to bring down emissions in all sectors where electricity is used.

Recommendations and policy Figure 3.1.1 - Greenhouse gas emissions from Central Lincolnshire, 2018: The majority of 3.1.4 In order to ensure that the recommended policies are comprehensive and fully emissions currently come from buildings and transport. Emissions from the power sector consistent with a zero carbon future, all emissions within the boundary of Central are included in the sectors in which electricity is consumed. Lincolnshire are considered before making recommendations on how the local plan may facilitate their reduction.

3.1.5 The recommended policies that fall out of this analysis form a separate document forming this evidence base, “Recommended Policies”.

Further reading

• Key recommended policies are listed in the “Recommended Policies” report.

• Chapter on Infrastructure (Task E).

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 19 3.7 Implications for local plan: New Buildings Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

The future of buildings in Central Lincolnshire “We will not meet our 3.7.1 Our analysis of different zero carbon pathways for Central Lincolnshire shows that buildings are one of the sectors which must target zero emissions. The CCC, SCATTER and targets for emissions our own analysis all concur that: reduction without near complete decarbonisation • New buildings from 2020 must be designed to be net zero carbon. of the housing stock” • New buildings built from 2020 must be ultra-low energy (extremely energy efficient) Committee on Climate • New buildings must be heated by low-carbon heat – e.g. heat pumps. There should be Change, UK Housing: Fit for no gas boilers installed in new homes from 2020. the Future? 3.7.2 The Committee on Climate Change has published a report in 2019 named ‘UK housing – fit for the future?’. The report highlights the need to build new buildings with ‘ultra-low’ levels of energy use. It also makes a specific reference to space heating demand and recommends a maximum of 15-20 kWh/m2/yr for new dwellings. For reference, Passivhaus requires 15 kWh/m2/yr, and most new domestic buildings have a heating demand of 40-80 kWh/m2/yr.

3.7.3 The Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) asked the Green Construction Board to respond to the 2030 Buildings Energy Mission. The background report published as part of this response reviewed the evidence from new buildings which have already achieved a 50% reduction in energy use, compared with typical benchmarks. There is a lot which can be learnt from these buildings as there are recurring approaches, techniques and systems that are responsible for their excellent energy efficiency.

Targets

3.7.4 We conclude that future development in the region should be designed and built to be zero carbon without delay. Central Lincolnshire expects to build 1,325 new homes every year. To continue to design new developments with net positive carbon emissions simply adds to the already significant retrofit challenge of the future. It is possible to build net zero carbon homes and buildings today – see technical and cost feasibility chapters.

To build net-zero carbon homes and buildings with immediate effect is consistent with a fair contribution towards the Paris agreement target and the Climate Change Act 2008.

Further reading Figure 3.7.1: RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge Trajectories • Report “Task A - Position Statement”

• The reports ‘Task D - Technical Feasibility’ and ’Task E - Cost Implications’ (Task E) take an in depth look at delivering zero carbon new buildings.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 20 3.8 Implications for the local plan: Overheating in buildings Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Overheating risk in buildings

3.8.1 Average monthly temperatures are increasing across the UK due to climate change. Compared with the rest of the UK, external temperature and solar radiation in Central Lincolnshire are in the middle of the range, and represent a moderate risk to overheating. However, there are many other factors that contribute to overheating. These include orientation, proportion of glazing, the ability to open windows, presence of community heating and amount of surrounding green space[15] .

3.8.2 If overheating risk is not mitigated, there is the risk that some dwellings and buildings will overheat even on average summer days. This is not only a matter of discomfort – overheating can have serious health impacts, including death. During the heat wave of 2003, a total of 2,091 excess deaths were recorded in England and Wales[14] .

3.8.3 Without care and attention at the design stage, overheating in buildings will lead to an increase in the use of cooling systems, generating increased demand for electricity, increasing running costs of dwellings. Figure 3.8.1: The above documents and guides provide guidance on mitigating

Building Regulations alone is insufficient to mitigate risk SULGRAVE AT DE PARTICULAR overheating risks in residential buildings [15], [14], [16]. 3.8.4 The checks to assess the potential risk of overheating / excessive solar gains in AIR LEAKAGE BARRIERS AND building regulations are rudimentary. There are sophisticated modelling methodologies MINIMISING THERMAL BRIDGING available – e.g. CIBSE TM52 and TM59 (for non-residential and residential heating checks Conventional houses lose signiﬁcant amounts of heat through air leakage. The homes at Sulgrave Gardens are designed with a continuous air leakage barrier respectively) but these are not mandatory. or membrane, and use special tapes at the joints of the building elements to maintain this barrier, which drastically reduces the air leakage. There is some truth in the assertion that a Passivhaus can pass Good Homes Alliance Overheating Tool current building regulations with an open window.

G At Sulgrave Gardens the air leakage barrier in the [15] floor is mainly provided by the concrete slab at ARDEN 3.8.5 The Good Homes Alliance (GHA) have developed guidance and a tool for use on S ground floor level with special attention given to the joint between the floor and walls or doors. The barrier IGN FEATURE residential developments at the pre-planning stage. The tool helps to identify key factors in the external walls and the ceiling on the top floor consists of an airtight membrane. All of the external contributing to overheating risk and provides possible design measures to mitigate this risk. doors and windows are special products with very low air leakage in performance.

It has been designed to provide practical design guidance without the need for detailed To meet Passivhaus standards, the air leakage rate should not exceed 0.6 air changes per hour. In block S B of Sulgrave Gardens, we achieved as low as 0.37- modelling to be undertaken. 0.40 air changes per hour.

Signiﬁcant levels of insulation is not enough 3.8.6 The new London Plan (2020) will require all new residential developments to undertake alone. Much heat can be lost around the edges of the insulation. For Passivhaus principles to work, [17] complete elimination of these ‘thermal bridges’ is Sulgrave gardens: Cartwright Pickard Architects an overheating risk assessment at planning stage using the GHA tool . required. Sulgrave Gardens e!ectively achieves thermal bridge free construction. S

What the local plan can do

Tooker House - Solomon Cordwell Buenz’s (SCB) 3.8.7 We recommend that the local plan contains policies that require early stage overheating checks using the Good Homes Alliance “Overheating in New Homes” tool Figure 3.8.2: Overheating mitigation measures could include adding external shading demonstrating that the design is at “low” risk of overheating. Where there is a potential risk 9/10 (either building mounted or trees), the colour of surfaces, the presence of thermal mass of overheating, detailed TM52 / TM59 analysis should also be undertaken to demonstrate and the ability to take advantage of secure night cooling. the risk has been mitigated sufficiently.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 21 Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets 3.9 Implications for local plan: Transport ???

Current GHG emissions of Annual reductions required for The future of transport in Central Lincolnshire Central Lincolnshire consistency with carbon budget 3.9.1 Of the pathways to zero carbon that we have reviewed, all show that transport has to date been static or increasing in its emissions, but that it has the potential to become a zero carbon sector. Indeed, our analysis shows that it is essential for it to do so. 35% 3.9.2 Currently, transport represents approximately 35% of Central Lincolnshire’s GHG -20% emissions through the combustion of petrol and diesel. To be consistent with a 1.5-2C Transport pathway, Central Lincolnshire should reduce transport emissions by at least 13.5% per year – ideally targeting 20% per year.

3.9.3 The UK government has announced the intention to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and require all new cars and vans to be zero emissions from 2035 [13] .

Options for low emissions vehicles include hybrid petrol/electric (still a source of CO2), full electric, biofuel (still a source of CO2) and hydrogen. The market appears to be responding at pace to electric vehicles, especially cars and light vehicles. There are also electrification options for freight vehicles and public transport, however hydrogen is another contender in this domain.

3.9.4 Electric and hybrid electric cars currently represent less than 2% of total cars registered in the UK, however, uptake is increasing exponentially. Pure electric car sales increased 184% from September 2019 to September 2020 [11]. This actually exceeds the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios 2020 best case forecast .

3.9.5 Barriers to uptake include battery capacity, lack of charging points and the high costs of EVs (however cost parity is expected by mid-2020s [10]). Ongoing research into batteries will help to address range and sustainability issues. There are ambitious plans to roll out additional charging points across the UK.

3.9.6 In tandem with the transition to zero emission vehicles, the Committee on Climate Change recommends that we need to realise a reduction in total car journeys of at least 10% by 2050. This will necessitate a move towards greater use of walking, cycling and public transport.

What the local plan should do

3.9.7 The Local Plan will play mostly a facilitatory role in reducing emissions from transport (Task A). It should use all available mechanisms to ensure adequate charging points are made across new developments, land is safeguarded for the expansion of public transport and walking/cycling routes, and new development is focused in locations that are already (or can be) well connected to local amenities and existing public transport systems.

See the “Recommended Policies” report in this evidence base for more detail.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 22 Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets 3.10 Implications for local plan: Land-use ???

The role of the land Current GHG emissions of Central Lincolnshire 3.10.1 Land can be both a source and a sink of GHG emissions, depending on land-use practices.

3.10.2 Carbon and methane is stored below ground in soils and peatland, and above ground in trees and plants. The land will therefore play an important role in carbon sequestration – mopping up CO2 already emitted into the atmosphere. Land 2%

3.10.3 The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) report, “Land Use: Policies for a Net Zero UK” (Jan 2020) issues a number of recommendations relating to the key objectives of delivering low-carbon farming practices and changing the use of land to reduce emissions and increase sequestration. See table on the right which lists the key recommendations and how the local plan can support them.

Limiting emissions from the land

3.10.4 The land naturally emits some greenhouse gas emissions through natural cycles and processes. But if these become out of balance, they can become a problem. For example, CCC Recommendation Can the local plan influence? the draining of peatland soils for agriculture or development can lead to huge amounts of Low carbon farming practices No stored carbon being released into the atmosphere. Afforestation, agro-forestry, hedge creation Yes. Through allocation of land for 3.10.5 The biggest impact the local plan can have on limiting emissions from the land is and broadleaf management projects. through how land is allocated for development and the protection of carbon-rich soils. Using the land as a carbon sink is discussed on the next page. Upland peat restoration N/A

Allocating land for development Lowland peat restoration and management Yes. Through allocation for restoration and protection. 3.10.6 Carbon-rich soils should be protected from development, where possible. It is Energy crops Indirectly through being supportive of therefore recommended that sites should be assessed for their ability to release or store appropriate new bioenergy applications. GHG emissions prior to permission being granted for development. Enabling measures No. However wider council policies and Protection of carbon-rich soils measures can support. Diet change No. However wider council policies and 3.10.7 The creation, preservation and management of habitats that are known to be measures can support. beneficial in terms of storing carbon (such as woodland, grassland, wetlands, peatlands and Food waste reduction No. However wider council policies and agricultural land), can also effect many other benefits, including increasing biodiversity, measures can support. improving resilience to the effects of climate change and providing amenity for the local community. Trade policies No. However wider council policies and measures can support. The report “Task A – Position Statement” includes more information on carbon Wider government agricultural strategy No. sequestration and peatlands. Monitoring, reporting and verification No.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 23 Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets 3.11 Implications for local plan: Forestry and agriculture ???

The need to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere

3.11.1 Almost all sectors will likely have residual, hard-to-eliminate emissions as – for example, industrial processes for which suitable fossil fuel alternatives have not been found. To achieve carbon neutrality and ensure we do not overspend our carbon budget, we need to compensate for those ongoing emissions through removal of at least an equal amount from the atmosphere. The land has a key role to play here.

3.11.2 In addition to the Committee on Climate Change’s Land-Use report[21] , the Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering have recently published a report ”Greenhouse Gas Removals”[22] which list recommendations for carbon sequestration in the UK. A summary is given in Figure 3.11.1, where we have highlighted in orange those removal methods that the local plan can influence. The study also assessed the potential of each method to store carbon and its readiness for implementation (figure 3.11.2). The local plan can help facilitate three of the four methods that are proven and ready for deployment: forestation; habitat restoration and building materials.

Afforestation

3.11.3 Sites are needed across the UK for reforestation. The CCC recommends the UK needs Figure 3.11.1 Greenhouse gas removal methods by storage location (from to increase forest cover to 19% [01] . Central Lincolnshire is a predominantly agricultural area, “Greenhouse Gas Removals”, RS and RAE[22]. The local plan can have a direct with a low forest area (less than 10%) [08] . Therefore, Central Lincolnshire should seek to influence on those highlighted in orange. understand the potential of targeting a similar increase and sites should be allocated for creation of new multi-species woodlands. Multi-species woodlands store more carbon, increase biodiversity and are more resilient to disease than mono-culture forests. Potential for working with farmers to combine afforestation with food production should be explored.

Habitat restoration

3.11.4 Woodlands and forests are not the only habitats that can store carbon. Peatlands[25], wetlands[26], grasslands[24] and others can store significant amounts of carbon. Restoration of these habitats can turn degraded habitats into carbon sinks.

Building with biomass and low carbon concrete

3.11.5 Timber and low-carbon concrete can lock up carbon indefinitely. Through encouraging the utilisation of wood and and low-carbon concrete, buildings can become effective carbon sinks.

Further reading Figure 3.11.2 - Potential of greenhouse gas removal methods in the UK. Dark green = • Chapter on Peatlands (Task A), and Offsetting report (Task I). ready for deployment. Mid-green / light-green = yet to be demonstrated at scale. Light-green methods are unproven and theoretical (direct air carbon capture and storage, DACCS, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, BECCS).

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 24 3.12 Implications for local plan: F-gases Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

F-gases Current GHG emissions of Central Lincolnshire 3.12.1 F-gases, while a small proportion of Central Lincolnshire’s current GHG emissions (around 3%), are a potent greenhouse gas. There are four F–gases included in the UK’s GHG inventory, however 94% are from one group: HFCs. HFCs are used in refrigeration and air conditioning systems, aerosols, medical inhalers, and fire equipment. The other F-gases are 3% mainly used in industry and electricity distribution. F-gases

3.12.2 The use of HFCs in particular is set to increase rapidly due to heat pumps being a good solution for low carbon heat for buildings, and as air conditioning systems become more widely used as summer temperatures increase.

3.12.3 Industry is reacting to the need for refrigerants with low GWP, driven largely by the European F-gas regulations and the Kigali amendment, which will phase out some refrigerants with high GWP in 2022 and continue to reduce the total amount of refrigerant available for sale, further incentivizing the use of low GWP refrigerants. It is essential that the UK either continues participating in this regulation or it develops and enforces a regulatory regime that is at least as strong.

3.12.4 It is imperative that policies and regulations are developed that foster responsible specification, management and disposal of refrigerants. The greatest risk in leaks is at end- of-life, however it is possible for refrigerants to be recovered and re-used.

What the local plan should do

3.12.5 We recommend policies are put in place that encourage the need for refrigerant systems to be reduced through passive design, use of low GWP refrigerants where possible, minimize refrigerant charge (the amount of refrigerant in the system), mitigate refrigerant leakage through leak detection and high-quality sensors, and enhanced refrigerant recovery at the end of life.

Further reading

• Technical Feasibility, Task D

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 25 Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets 3.13 Implications for local plan: Other sectors ???

Current GHG emissions of Current GHG emissions of Waste Central Lincolnshire Central Lincolnshire 3.13.1 The Committee on Climate Change have recommended a target recycling rate of 70% by 2030 at the latest with an immediate ban on biodegradable waste going to landfill. 6% New housing will have to have the space to allow segregation of waste and constrained 4% collection to encourage reuse.

3.13.2 For commercial waste and in the context of the local plan, particularly construction Waste Industry waste, strict limits should be set for all construction sites on recycling rates, waste to landfill and total quantities of waste.

3.13.3 The County Council’s minerals and waste plans will also have a role in allocating potential sites for additional waste processing facilities that may be required in response to increased recycling rates and diversion from landfill. These could also include sites for large scale anaerobic digestion to process agricultural waste into biogas for energy generation.

Water

3.13.4 Management of water resources in Central Lincolnshire is a significant challenge. Both excess (flooding) and deficit (drought) are increasing in frequency as weather patterns have changed due to Climate Change. The attenuation of rainfall run off into the river network, both urban and rural, is a critical factor in levelling out the increasingly extreme peaks and troughs of weather events. However, surface water run-off and other mitigation measures are beyond the remit of this evidence base.

3.13.5 Of carbon emissions associated with water, 89% are from water heated in the home, and 11% are from water supply and treatment[27]. The local plan can support GHG emissions associated with water use through requiring water efficiency standards in buildings. By doing so, demand for water will be reduced, less energy will be required for hot water heating, and demands on water treatment facilities will be less.

Industry

3.13.6 Industrial processes within Central Lincolnshire will likely represent a significant portion of emissions in 2050 since they are more difficult to abate than emissions from other sectors. While the local plan doesn’t have a large scope to influence emissions, it would be worthwhile considering the potential of co-location of different industries in order that inputs/outputs can be shared, and efficiency increased, for example food-manufacturing directly adjacent to bioenergy plant[28]. It would also be reasonable to request a requirement deliver a certain amount of renewable energy for any applications for new industrial sites.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 26 4.0 Conclusion Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

The pace and scale of emissions reductions required 4.1.1 Central Lincolnshire’s remaining carbon budget for a fair contribution to the national Step 1 Step 2 and global effort to stay withing a 1.5-2C temperature rise is 9 MtCO2. If we continue to emit emissions at the rate they were in 2017, this entire carbon budget would be used within The local plan’s greatest ability The local plan should also be 7 years (by 2027). to influence emissions responsible for ensuring new

4.1.2 Some methods and means of carbon reduction are developed, tried and tested. reductions across all sectors, development does not Others are theoretical. Even with optimistic scenarios, there will likely be remaining, include existing emissions, is unnecessarily increase overall unavoidable emissions in 2050 from hard-to-treat sources. These emissions will need to be through facilitating the emissions within Central offset, but the means of offsetting all these residual emissions do not yet exist at scale. We decarbonisation of the Lincolnshire must therefore not be complacent in dealing with emissions which we have the electricity grid through technological means to eliminate, such as those from buildings and transport. The local renewable energy provision. plan should take every opportunity to reduce emissions across all sectors where possible.

The power of the local plan

4.1.3 The new local plan can have varying levels of impact on different emissions.

1. Facilitate the expansion of renewable energy generation in order that current, existing emissions can be reduced throughout all sectors.

2. Minimise emissions from new buildings – zero carbon buildings policies

3. Minimise emissions from transport by supporting and facilitating low carbon transport. Step 3 Step 4

4. Facilitate the decarbonisation of heat of existing buildings through targeted use of The local plan should exercise The local plan should facilitate planning powers. its powers where possible to the transition to low carbon decarbonise transport. This heat in buildings through use Policies should be through a mixture of of planning powers such as 4.1.4 The findings from the analysis within this chapter, and the remaining chapters in this encouraging active transport, local development orders, evidence base culminate in suggested policies for the new local plan to include. expansion of public transport permissive policies and a The policies are laid out in a separate report forming part of this evidence base – services, and provision of review of conservation “Recommended policies”. infrastructure for low-carbon policies. And, where transport (e.g. electric car appropriate, consideration of charging networks). low carbon heat networks.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 27 References Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

[01] “Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Climate Change”, Committee on Climate [17] "Energy assessment guidance: GLA guidance on preparing energy assessments Change as part of planning applications", Greater London Authority, April 2020. [02] (above technical report) [18] "UK Housing: Fit for the Future?", The Committee on Climate Change, February [03] ”Climate Metrics Under Ambitious Mitigation”, Oxford Martin School, University 2019. of Oxford, Briefing Note, November 2017. [19] "The cost of poor housing to the NHS", S.Nicol, Mike Roys, Helen Garrett, BRE, [04] Kevin Anderson, John F. Broderick & Isak Stoddard (2020): A factor of two: how 2015. the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’ nations fall far short of Paris-compliant [20] "Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Study for Central Lincolnshire", AECOM, pathways, Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1728209 2011.

[05] “Net Zero Cambridgeshire”, CUSPE, October 2019. [21] "Land-use policies for a net-zero UK", Committee on Climate Change, January [06] Transport emissions from NAEI data for 2017 (BEIS emissions records) - 2020. https://naei.beis.gov.uk/laco2app/ [22] "Greenhouse Gas Removal", The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of [07] DfT published data for 2017/18 CW0301 Engineering, September 2018. [23] "Tree species richness increases ecosystem carbon storage in subtropical [08] NAEI (BEIS) report Mapping Carbon Emissions & Removals for the Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry Sector (up to 2017) forests", Liu, Trogisch, He, August 2018. - https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2018.1240 [09] IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), Climate Change 2014, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy makers. [24] "Nature's Tapestry", The Grasslands Trust, 2011. http://www.magnificentmeadows.org.uk/assets/pdfs/Natures_Tapestry.pdf [10] Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure, Briefing Paper 7480, House of Commons, March 2020. [25] International Union for the Conservation of Nature, https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/peatlands-and-climate-change [11] Driving Electric, https://www.drivingelectric.com/news/678/electric-car-sales-uk- near-7-market-share-september-2020 , October 2020. [26] "Carbon sequestration by wetlands: A critical review enhancement measures for climate change mitigation", Were, Kansiime, Fetahi. April 2019. [12] National Grid ESO, Future Energy Scenarios 2020, Data Workbook. [27] "Using science to create a better place: greenhouse gas emissions of water [13] ” Government takes historic step towards net-zero with end of sale of new petrol supply and demand management options.", Environment Agency, July 2008. and diesel cars by 2030”, Gov.uk, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-takes-historic-step-towards-net- [28] ”Future Energy Scenarios”, National Grid ESO, July 2020 zero-with-end-of-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-by-2030 (https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/174541/download ) Kevin Anderson, John F. Stoddard [14] "Impacts of overheating in homes", Zero Carbon Hub [29] "Heating in Great Britain: An incumbent discourse coalition resists and electrifying future", R Lowes, B Woodman, J Speirs, August 2020 (Journal of how the mitigation plans [15] "Overheating in new homes", Good Homes Alliance, July 2019. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions).

[16] "Acoustics, Ventilation and Overheating: Residential Design Guide", Association [30] The Tyndall Centre carbon budgets reports, downloadable from compliant pathways, of Noise Consultants, Janurary 2020 [20] "Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Study https://carbonbudget.manchester.ac.uk for Central Lincolnshire", AECOM, 2011. 10.1080/14693062.2020.1

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 28 Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base

Task C Emissions reductions targets Appendices

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 29 Appendix A - A look at Greenhouse Gas Emissions Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets

Greenhouse gas emissions: properties, source and sinks What are GHG emissions? F-gases

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are gases which contribute to warming global CO2 NH4 NOx HFCs PFCs HF6 temperatures by trapping heat from the sun within our atmosphere. % in the atmosphere tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc

The Kyoto Protocol’s “basket” of GHG emissions include: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane Lifetime tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc (NH4), nitrous oxides (NOx) and three different fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6). Strength (GWP)* tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Reducing greenhouse gas emissions Sources

The sources of greenhouse gas emissions show that three main overarching actions will Fossil fuel combustion ✓ ✓ ✓ address emissions: Biomass combustion ✓ ✓ ✓

1. End combustion of fossil fuels Agricultural practices ✓ ✓ Land-use change 2. Change agricultural and land-use practices to utilise land as a carbon sink ✓ ✓ Organic waste + sewerage ✓ 3. Use F-gases responsibly. Heat pumps ✓ How does each GHG impact climate change? Industry ✓ ✓ ✓ Not all greenhouse gases have the same impact on climate change. The three main Sinks properties to consider are: Agricultural practices ✓ • How much of the gas exists in the atmosphere? Land-use change ✓ • How long does the gas persist in the atmosphere once emitted?

• How strongly does it act as an insulating “blanket”? Measured as Global Warming Potential (GWP).

*A note on Global Warming Potential

Global warming potential is a measure of how effective a gas is at trapping heat in the Rising emissions Stable emissions Falling emissions atmosphere. The standard agreed metric is GWP100 – (global warming potential over 100 years). However, it is acknowledged [1, 3] , that GWP has scientific limitations. It overstates the warming impacts of short-lived greenhouse gases, and underplays the effects of long- lived greenhouse gases such as CO2. It is therefore important to bear in mind not only a

GHG’s strength (GWP) but also its lifetime. CO2 persists in the atmosphere long after it is emitted and continues to create a warming effect. Stabilised CO2 emissions will lead to increasing temperatures because the CO2 would still accumulated. Methane (NH4) acts differently. Stabilised methane emissions will not lead to increasing temperatures as it does not readily accumulate in the atmosphere. It is not necessary that methane emissions reach zero, provided emissions levels are stabilised.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 30 Categor y Decarbon Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets isation Appendix B.1 - Pathways assumptions comparison by sector electricity

Sector Committee on Climate Change SCATTER Etude Power The CCC identified a “Further Ambition” scenario that Grid carbon factor projections taken from BEIS Treasury Carbon content of electricity falls rapidly in reached a 96% GHG reduction by 2050. Green Book. line with National Grid Future Energy Solid biomass generation quadruples in 2025, dropping Scenarios 2020 projections. 375TWh of renewables. off after that. ; Coal phase-out follows trajectories from Additional 250TWh power generation from nuclear, the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario. Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Hydroelectric power generation grows to 34 MWh per Gas Carbon Capture and Storage (Gas CCS). hectare inland water in 2030; 41 in 2050. Residenti al Hydrogen plays a role for some high energy intensity Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 4.8 MWh building processes (industrial) and peak heating in some per hectare in 2030; 6.9 MWh in 2050. energy efficiency buildings. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 1.9 MWh per hectare in 2030; 2.2 MWh in 2050. Small-scale wind grows to 2.8 MWh per hectare in 2030; 3.3 in 2050 (from a baseline of 1.2 MWh per hectare.) consistent with global and national Non Large-scale solar generation grows to 200 kWh per residentia hectare in 2030; 400 in 2050 (from a baseline of 50 kWh l building energy per hectare.) efficiency Local solar capacity grows, generating equivalent to Electrifica 2500 kWh per household in 2030; 5200 in 2050 (from a tion of baseline of 400 kWh per household.) transport For areas with wave / tidal power, 320-fold increase by 2030, 1300-fold increase by 2050. Buildings: New Ultra-high levels of energy efficiency From 2021, 100% new-build properties are built to New homes achieve space heating 100% new homes on low carbon heating from 2021. passivhaus standard. demands of 15kWh/m2/yr from 2022. No new homes on gas grid after 2022. Reducing New homes heated by heat pump or other waste

low carbon heating. Industrial Buildings: Most existing buildings (including listed buildings and By 2050, 10% of current stock is retrofitted to a medium 30% of existing homes have a complete efficiency Existing those in conservation areas receive energy efficiency level; 80% deep retrofit. low energy retrofit and electrified heat, by retrofits and low carbon heating. By 2050, 7% resistive heating; 60% air-source heat 2022 and achieve an average heating 90% of existing homes on low carbon heating by 2050. pumps and 30% ground-source heat pumps; 3% district energy demand of 40kWh/m2/yr. Aviation All building heating is provided by a heat pump, or an heating 70% by 2027 and 100% by 2032. & equivalent low carbon technology (for example By 2050, domestic lighting and appliance total energy Shipping hydrogen fuel cell, or waste industrial heat). No demand has dropped to 27% of current levels. buildings are heated by on-site combustion. Small reductions in efficiency of domestic cooking. Forestry & land Proportion of cooking which is electric increases to 100% use in 2050. Hot water demand per household reduces by 8% every

5 years F- Commercial In 2050, commercial heating, cooling and hot water demand is 60% of today's levels By 2050, 7% resistive heating; 60% air-source heat pumps and 30% ground-source heat pumps; 3% district heating Commercial lighting & appliance energy demand decreases 25% by 2050. By 2050, 100% of commercial cooking is electrified.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 31 Categor y Decarbon Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets isation Appendix B.2 - Pathways assumptions comparison by sector electricity

Category Committee on Climate Change SCATTER Etude Transport Cars and vans go electric – 100% of sales by 2035. By 2050, 22% decrease in distance travelled by road 5% reduction in in car use through switch to walking Car use reduction of 10% freight; 75% increase in efficiency. In waterborne and cycling. HGVs transition to zero carbon. Reduction in HGV transportation, 28% increase in use of waterborne 10% of domestic and light goods mileage completed journeys of 10%. transport. by electric vehicles or equivalent by 2022. 100% by Rail electrification. 25% reduction in total distance travelled per individual 2032. per year by 2030. 100% of HGVs are electric by 2032. Average modal share of cars, vans and motorbikes Residenti al decreases from current national average 74% total building miles to 38% in 2050. energy efficiency Cars and buses are 100% electric by 2035, rail is 100% electric by 2030. Average occupancies increase to 18 people per bus km (from 12), 1.65 people per car-km (up from 1.56), and 0.42 people per rail-km (from Non 0.32). residentia Reducing waste 20% reduction in food waste by 2025 65% recycling, 10% landfill, 25% incineration achieved N/A l building energy Zero biodegradable waste to landfill by 2025. by 2035, recycling rates increasing to 85% by 2050 efficiency 70% recycling rates by 2025. Total volume of waste is 61% of 2017 levels by 2040. Electrifica 20% reduction in waste water emissions by 2050. tion of transport Industrial Move to electric, hydrogen and bioenergy with carbon Industrial electricity consumption is 50% of total 80% reduction in industrial emissions through efficiency carbon and storage (BECCS). energy consumption by 2035; 65% by 2050. Output efficiency or changes in the sector. This is comparable Energy efficiency falls by 2% every year for non-heavy industry. to the ‘Further ambition’ recommendations by CCC1. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Reductions in process emissions from all industry: Resource efficiency. general industry reduces process emissions at a rate of 4.5% per year. Chemicals emissions reduce 1% per Reducing waste year; metals 0.7% per year, and minerals 0.8% per year. Industrial efficiency Aviation Demand reduction Department for Transport "Low" forecast for aviation. N/A Improvements in technology, operations and The "Low" forecast encapsulates 'lower economic alternative fuels. growth worldwide with restricted trade, coupled with higher oil prices and failure to agree a global carbon Aviation emissions trading scheme. For reference see Pathways & Shipping Methodology. By 2050, 28% decrease in fuel use at UK ports. Forestry Forestry & land Afforestation 24% increase in forest cover by 2030. Significant tree planting in the borough has a very & land use Improved forestry management and productivity 7% decrease in grassland. small but important impact. Central Lincs would need use Energy crops 0.5% annual reduction in livestock numbers further reductions in emissions from forestry in other Peatland restoration and management Tree-planting to increase current coverage by 30% by local authorities, potentially through a future national Improved fertiliser efficiency 2030; from 2030-2050 further increase of 20%. trading scheme. F- Low carbon farming practices and soil management. Changes in livestock measures (improving feed, genetic selection). Improved manure practices. Agricultural vehicles and machinery to electrify or use hydrogen. Reduction in meat consumption. F-gases The UK maintains a regulatory framework at least as N/A strong as the EU F-Gas Regulation.

Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 32