Central Lincolnshire Authorities Lead: Marina Central Lincolnshire Local Plan: Climate Change Evidence Base Draft Task C - Carbon Reduction Targets Feb 2021 | Rev D Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 1 Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base Task C Task A: Position Task B: Assessment Task C: Carbon Carbon reduction targets statement of spatial strategy reduction targets Task E: Infrastructure Task F: Monitoring Task G: Feasibility requirements Framework Assessment Task H: Cost Task J: Decentralised Task I: Offsetting Implications energy networks This section assesses the required carbon reduction targets for the built Task K: Embodied environment in the region by using a top down approach based on Task L: Peat Soil Energy Mapping recommendations from the IPCC, the Committee on Climate Change, the Tyndall Centre and forecast GHG emissions for the region. We then use a bottom up analysis to assess the impact of potential policy measures on meeting these carbon reduction targets. Task M: Stakeholder engagement We look at the role of the local plan in reaching the required targets for different sectors and recommend policies to support them. Policies Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 2 Contents Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets 1.0 Executive summary 4 4.0 Conclusion 27 2.0 Establishing carbon reduction targets 5 References 28 2.1 Global Carbon Reduction Target 6 2.2 Translating global targets to the national level 7 Appendices 29 2.3 Zero carbon pathway for the UK: CCC analysis 8 Appendix A A look at greenhouse gas emissions 30 2.4 Translating nation targets to the local level 9 Appendix B Pathways assumptions comparison by sector 31 2.5 Zero carbon pathway for Central Lincolnshire: SCATTER analysis 10 2.6 Zero carbon pathway for Central Lincolnshire: Etude analysis 11 2.7 Summary of emissions targets required 12 3.0 Implications for the Local Plan 13 3.1 Implications for the local plan 14 3.2 The future of electricity generation 15 3.3 How much renewable energy? 16 3.4 The electricity grid 17 3.5 Managing electrical demand 18 3.6 Existing buildings 19 3.7 New buildings 20 3.8 Overheating in buildings 21 3.9 Transport 22 3.10 Land-use 23 3.11 Forestry and agriculture 24 3.12 F-gases 25 3.13 Other sectors 26 Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 3 1.0 Executive summary Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets Emissions reductions requirements Ensure all new buildings are zero carbon 1.1.1 Our review of existing carbon budgets and models, together with our own analysis for 1.1.4 New buildings from 2020 must be designed to be net zero carbon: ultra-low energy Central Lincolnshire, shows common themes and conclusions emerging to inform the (extremely energy efficient with space heating requirements of 15-20 kWh/m2/yr); heated by required GHG reduction targets required for the region. low-carbon heat – e.g. heat pumps (no more gas boilers) and; generate renewable energy to match their annual energy demand. To not do this, we are simply adding to the retrofit • Central Lincolnshire must reach net zero carbon GHG emissions by 2041 from a science burden of the future and unnecessarily eating into a very finite carbon budget. based approach which is aligned with the Paris agreement, or from a purely legal standpoint, by 2050 (Climate Change Act 2008). Existing buildings • Central Lincolnshire must emit no more than 9 MtCO2 between 2020 and 2100 (Tyndall 1.1.5 There are upwards of 130,000 dwellings in Central Lincolnshire, almost all of which will Centre Tyndall Centre’s Carbon Budgets for Central Lincolnshire) from energy use need to undergo deep retrofits to make them zero carbon. The rate at which these need to (excluding aviation and cement production). happen is fast and almost all will need to be undertaken in the 2020s if we are to stay within carbon budgets. We will need to see similar results in the non-domestic sector. • If emissions continue at 2017 levels, the entire carbon budget for the area would be used within 7 years (from 2020), i.e. by 2027. 1.1.6 While the local plan does not have a great deal of ability to influence carbon reduction in existing buildings, conservation policies should be reviewed for compatibility with the • Emissions cuts must average -13.4% per year to deliver a Paris aligned carbon budget. zero carbon agenda. • The sectors of power generation, buildings and transport should target zero greenhouse gas emissions and must in order to compensate for those that cannot. Transport • A means of removing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere will be required. The zero 1.1.7 Transport is one of the biggest carbon emitting sectors, and emissions are remaining carbon pathways we have looked at have shown that there will be residual GHG emissions fairly static. Zero carbon vehicle technology is developing at a very fast pace, with technical remaining that cannot be abated. Removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere issues such as range and battery charging being rapidly addressed by the market. will be required to bring the balance of GHG emissions to net zero. Infrastructure issues, such as places to charge electric vehicles should be addressed in the local plan. Maximise renewable energy 1.1.8 Additionally, the local plan should facilitate a move away from car journeys towards 1.1.2 Our analysis concludes that Central Lincolnshire should plan to install enough journeys on foot, bicycle or public transport. renewable energy to provide for at least 70% of its energy needs through onshore wind, photovoltaics or other forms of renewable energy. This figure reflects Central Lincolnshire’s Land-use relative ability to generate renewable energy, and has been assessed within the context of 1.1.9 Carbon sequestration is an imperative element of our zero carbon pathway. The local the UK’s onshore renewable energy generation requirement. The remaining 30% of Central plan should facilitate land-based carbon sequestration through allocation of land for the Lincolnshire’s renewable energy demands can be imported, while still leaving enough for planting of diverse species woodland or agroforestry projects, and identification of land for more energy intense regions and cities. protection – particularly that with carbon rich soils and biodiversity. 1.1.3 We recommend that the local plan seeks to identify sites for the installation of on- Policies shore wind and photovoltaic installations. As an indication this should be in the region of 510 MW solar and 340 MW of onshore wind capacity. 1.1.10 The findings from the analysis within this chapter, and the remaining chapters in this evidence base culminate in suggested policies for the new local plan to include. The policies are laid out in a separate report forming part of this evidence base – “Recommended policies”. Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 4 Net Zero Carbon Evidence Base Task C Emissions reductions targets 2.0 Establishing targets A look at required emissions reductions targets for Central Lincolnshire, through deriving targets from a global and national standpoint. Central Lincolnshire Local Plan – Climate Change Evidence Base | Feb 21 | Rev D 5 2.1 Global Carbon Reduction Targets Task C – Carbon Reductions Targets There is a climate emergency Global level 2.1.1 There is overwhelming scientific consensus that significant climate change is happening. This is evidenced in the latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on 900,000 10-14 Climate Change (IPCC AR5). The IPCC special report published in 2018 on the impacts of CO2 global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. It highlights the urgency for action and MtCO2 years has generated a high level of interest and concern in society as a whole. The number of years it 2.2.2 A business-as-usual trajectory would lead to an expected 4 - 5°C increase in global Estimation of remaining global average temperature above pre-industrial levels by 2100 with more warming expected carbon budget for staying well would take to consume our entire afterwards. below 2C rise. global carbon budget The Paris Agreement (2015) at current global emissions rates for a 2.2.3 International negotiations on climate change are governed through the United Nations good chance of Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The most recent negotiations limiting temperature concluded with the Paris Agreement in December 2015. This Agreement reaffirms global rises to below 2C. ambition to limit temperature rises to below 2°C and binds every country to produce national plans to reduce emissions. The agreement also contains a further collective aspirational goal to reduce emissions in line with keeping the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Global carbon budgets 2.2.4 The concept of carbon budgets is an important one. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5 °C has estimated the quantity of CO2 that can be emitted globally and still be consistent with keeping global temperatures well below 2 °C 4-5 C the temperature with an outside chance of stabilising at 1.5 °C. The report gives different budgets for rise we are likely to see if different temperature rises and probabilities. we continue on a business 2.2.5 The Tyndall Centre Carbon Budgets reports[30] (which we will refer to throughout this as usual path report) has selected from the IPPC report a global budget figure of 900,000 MtCO2 as the basis of their work. This, they indicate, is the maximum allowable budget to stay within an 1.5-2C The maximum outside chance of staying within a 2C temperature rise.